Issue #292: Will Florida Democrats Finally Flip State House District 47
Hispanic voter trends
We are just three weeks away from primary day in Florida. While many districts will see Democrats and Republicans hold primaries to decide who is best to face off in the November general, the story in Florida State House District 47. located just south of Orlando, is very different.
House District 47 is a majority-Hispanic seat based in Osceola County and is currently held by Republican Paula Stark. This district, which voted for Biden in 2020 but narrowly for Trump in 2024, was expected to be a major battleground in the November elections, with Stark viewed as one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the midterm. However, the expected major fight for the district in November has been cancelled.
Why you ask? Because Paula Stark failed to qualify for the ballot, leaving just two Democrats fighting for the seat. Whoever wins that August Democratic primary will automatically be elected to the seat in November. Stark failed to qualify when her campaign, which waited until the final day of qualifying to get its paperwork in, forget to include a financial disclosure form. When the noon deadline hit and no form was in, the application was rejected. There is no mechanism to correct such mistakes later on.
The campaign filed a lawsuit, claiming they had submitted the form in question but it had been incorrectly returned by a clerk; events that took place just 25 minutes before the filing cutoff. A hearing was held and evidence was submitted. However, Judge Joshua Hawks rejected this story told by the Stark campaign, which had been refuted by employees at the state elections office, and Stark was kept off the ballot. The whole incident was the latest saga for Stark, who’s campaigns have been mired in paperwork issues and questions about spending. Just last year a political committee of hers was shut down due to filing delays and unpaid fees.
Republicans fumbled the bag when it came to HD47. They should have been on top of all their incumbents to make sure paperwork was correct, and should have considered a backup candidate just in case. Now they have guaranteed the loss of HD47 and it flipping to Florida Democrats. One more seat on the path to breaking the GOP’s super-majority in the state legislature.
This article, however, is not just to gloat about a Republican messing up their filing paperwork. No, I wanted to use this story to discuss the politics of the HD47. This is a seat, that just a few years back, would have been a guaranteed Democratic seat, and the fact Stark was the incumbent at all reflects a major decline Democrats have seen with Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, though this seat may now have a guaranteed Democratic representative, how it votes for the statewide races will be indicative of where Hispanic, especially Puerto Rican voters, are leaning.
With that in mind, lets take a look at the political evolution of the HD47.
A new Osceola Hispanic House Seat
When the 2020 Census Data came out for Florida, the growth in the Orlando metro region was undeniable. As I documented in my recent article on Orange County’s redistricting process, the Orange/Osceola region has seen massive population growth, driven heavily by Hispanic voters, over the last few decades. Before the first state house maps were even proposed, it was clear that Osceola County, which had one majority-Hispanic district located around Kissimmee, would almost surely see a second majority-Hispanic district drawn.
When the State House released their proposed maps, all included the same layout for Osceola, which indeed included a second majority-Hispanic state house district in Osceola.
The new HD47 was drawn to include the areas around eastern Kissimmee and down into the city of St Cloud. It also included major Hispanic suburbs like Beunaventura Lakes and the Orange County community of Meadow Woods. The voting-age population of the district is 59% Hispanic.
As the map above shows, the Hispanic population is most heavily concentrated in the northwest end of the district; which includes just a small portion of the city of Kissimmee; which largely covers the neighboring HD46. The city of St Cloud itself is split at around 45% Hispanic and 45% white. The community of Buenaventura Lakes, however, might as well be its own city. The census-designated community is a suburb of 30,000 people made up primarily of working and middle class Hispanic residents; with census figures around 77% Hispanic. The community is colloquially known as the “Little Puerto Rico of Orlando.”
Puerto Rican voters are easily the largest block of Hispanic voters in the district. With an estimated 59,000 residents of Puerto Rican heritage, they make up 51% of the Hispanic population of the district and 30% of the total population. The second largest nationality if Dominican residents, who make up just 11% of Hispanic voters and 6% of the total population. After this we have Columbians at 9% of Hispanics and 5% of all voters. Cubans, a major factor in the Miami and Tampa Hispanic communities, are just 5% of Hispanics in this district.
Thanks to being heavily Hispanic, and specially Puerto Rican, this new seat started off looking like a solid Democratic pickup. As I discussed way back in a 2020 article on the I-4 Corridor, the Puerto Rican voting block has traditionally been heavily Democratic. Growth of Puerto Rican residents in the area is heavily responsible for Democratic growth across Central Florida.
The partisan data for the new HD47 did indeed point to a likely Democratic pickup. The 2020 Presidential election within the district showed Joe Biden winning the area with 56% of the vote. Democratic strength was heavily anchored in the Hispanic communities of the Northwest, while whiter St Cloud was Republican.
The Biden win in 2020 even then reflected a right-wing shift, as Hillary Clinton had secured 62% in the district in 2016, and Andrew Gillum secured 60% in 2018. I wrote about the broader Hispanic swings in my Florida Swing State retrospective deep dive. That swing came as Democrats invested only modestly in the state in 2020; with the Biden campaign focused on the Midwest.
Still, despite there being a swing, operatives across both sides of the isle expected the new version of HD47 to be a likely Democratic gain when the 2022 midterms saw the map implemented.
It turns out everyone was mistaken.
The 2022 Turnout Collapse
When the final State House map was approved in early 2022, candidate began to file for all the respective seats. Despite being a new district with opportunities for many aspiring candidates, this seat did not generate the massive attention one might have expected.
Paula Stark, who up to this point was a civic leader and former newspaper publisher in St Cloud, was the lone Republican to run for the seat. Through her entire campaign she only raised $40,000. Granted, on the Democratic side things were not much different. Three Democrats filed, but none raised significant money. The three-way primary saw left-wing activist Anthony Nieves win the primary with 36% of the vote despite only raising $4,000. The biggest money raised, Dan Marquith, a former Osceola Sheriff Captain, who took in just under $50,000, got 30%.
Both Stark and Nieves advanced into the general raising little money. As high-profile and expensive contests played out for several other Orlando-area districts, most expected HD47 to just be a new Democratic-held district, regardless of Nieves’ lack of cash.
The problem that emerged for Democrats in HD47 wasn’t really about Nieves or Stark, but rather the statewide turnout issues Democrats suffered in the 2022 midterm. I have written about this at-length before, so I recommend this article for more details if you are interested, but 2022 saw a massive turnout gap between the two parties. Thanks to a lack of money and almost no national investment, the Democratic campaigns for Governor and US Senate were outspent from 10-1 to 20-1 and had no real money for major get-out-the-vote efforts. As a result, statewide Democratic turnout was 48% compared 63% for Republicans; the highest turnout gap on record.
In HD47, this turnout gap was just as bad; which I document along with other Hispanic districts in this article. In the district, Democratic turnout was just 37% compared to the 55% it was for Republicans, leading to a much more Republican-leaning and white-leaning electorate than the registration data have predicted. Hispanic turnout was just 28% in the district in 2022 compared to the 53% turnout whites had! This racial turnout gap was the largest of all Hispanic districts in the state that year, and led to a vote cast that was nearly even between white and Hispanic voters.
As I go into further in the above linked article, the Hispanic vote itself as a party turnout gap; with Hispanic Republicans turning out far more than Hispanic Democrats or Independents. So among the Hispanic voters that did show up, while they still leaned Democratic, the Hispanic block that turned out to vote was 10 points more Republican than their share of the voter registration.
All of this combined into HD47 shocking many and going Republican in the 2022 elections. In the Governor's election, Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by 8 points in the seat. Crist was confined to modest wins in the heavily Hispanic communities while getting absolutely bodied in St Cloud.
At the same time as the Governor’s election, Democratic US Senate nominee Val Demings faired a bit better thanks to being the neighboring congresswoman. However, Demings still lost to Marco Rubio 50% to 48% within the district.
In the race for the State legislative seats itself, the race was close, with Paula Stark winning by just 2%. Nieves performed notably better in the Hispanic-heavy Northwest.
Nieves never had a good deal of money, and perhaps an even strong Democratic candidate could have won. However, that is debatable, as the Democratic turnout issues suck stronger and better-funded Democratic candidates across the state.
The failure to flip HD47 in 2022 was a black eye for Democrats. However, the turnout issues at play led many to think this was a fluke result, likely to be reversed in 2024. The fact that the district would remain red in 2024, despite turnout not nearly being an issue like it was in 2022, is a far more important story.
The 2024 Hispanic Swing Right
Heading into the 2024 elections, Democrats were confident they would easily be able to flip HD47. The red swing in the district in 2022 was written off as a turnout issue. Meanwhile, Stark had generated controversy over campaign spending that appeared to be on personal matters, rather than campaign expenses. Democrats nominated union leader Maria Revelles, who was born in Puerto Rico before moving to Florida. Revelles raised six-figures and had a serious campaign going.
Turnout, meanwhile, was much less of an issue in 2024. Despite the state not being a high priority in the Presidential contest, turnout was up for Democrats significantly compared to 2022. Within HD47, the final turnout came in at 81% for Republicans and 76% for Democrats; leading to an electorate that was D+8. Hispanic turnout was also much stronger, resulting in an electorate that was majority Hispanic.
When the polls closed on election night, HD47 seemed poised to flip to the Democratic side.
While turnout was not an issue as much for Democrats in 2024, what was an issue was the massive right-wing shift Hispanic voters took. The right-wing trend that had begun from 2016 to 2020 continued into 2024, with Hispanic voters across the country moving in a more Republican direction; regardless of the nationality. Cubans in Miami, Mexicans in Texas, and Puerto Ricans in Orlando all shifted further to the Republican camp. The results out of Osceola were the canary in the coal mine for me. When its results came in, the county that once backed Hillary Clinton by 25 points was voting for Donald Trump by 1.4%.
The story of Osceola was the first major article I wrote about after the elections took place.
This shift among Hispanics has been heavily debated by talking heads since the election. Many initially tied it to Hispanic religious conservative sentiment moving them away from a more socially-liberal Democratic Party. However, I dug through the polling data and the find the real crux issue was economics. Voter sentiment was overwhelmingly negative on the economic situation in the country and they punished the party in power; a common trope in politics. Where Democrats deserved campaign messaging blame was not emphasizing economics more.
I argue in this very detailed article that the party doesn’t need to shift socially to the right, they just need to focus on pocketbook issues more.
The researchers that covered economic sentiment in the election point out how Hispanics in America are especially prone to swing based on pocket-book issues. Many Hispanic residents are working to middle class and like their white counterparts (who have already swung to the right) - were hit badly by the post-COVID inflation that hit most nations. The Hispanic community in HD47, for example, are primarily working/middle class - and all felt the pinch of the post-COVID economy. This led to a major swing to the right in Osceola and Orange, and it meant that Donald Trump won HD47 by 3%.
Trump’s victory in HD47 was driven almost entirely by gains with Hispanic voters. Trump did not win the Puerto Rican vote in Osceola, but he did drastically close the gap from four years earlier. If I look at the precincts in the district by most and least Hispanic, you see the trend clearly.
While the less-Hispanic precincts (largely in the St Cloud area) slightly tilted to the right, it was the massive drop with the heavily Hispanic precincts that tells the story.
Thanks to this massive swing in the Presidential contest, Paula Stark managed to once again hold on to her seat, winning by just under 2%.
One notable difference here is that Revelles was stronger in the Hispanic-heavy communities; winning them by 20%. However, she also did worse in the St Cloud white precincts, losing them by 36%; which can be partly attributed to Stark being from St Cloud.
In my Osceola County article, I discuss how despite Trump winning Osceola County, down-ballot Democrats fared much better. Longtime Democratic officials outperformed the most, showing voters were willing to split their ticket based on trust and/or who would aid them best on the economy. In the Congressional District 9 race, incumbent Congressman Darren Soto outperformed Harris easily in his district. Within HD47, Soto won the vote by 10%.
Soto’s win in HD47 is heavily attributed to his stronger support with Hispanic voters. He wins the Hispanic-heavy precincts by 31%. He only modestly overperforms with the white voters.
Soto, as many of you know, is at serious risk of losing his seat thanks to the new Congressional map passed; which cracks the Puerto Rican community across FIVE different districts.
I will do a separate article on Soto and his chances in the revamped 9th district after the primaries are wrapped up. You can check the article above for basics on the new version of the 9th.
The same time these partisan races took place, the district voted for both of the socially liberal ballot measure put before voters. Amendment 3, which legalized marijuana, and Amendment 4, which guaranteed abortion rights, passed in the district. Amendment 4 won almost all precincts, and was strongest in the heavily Hispanic northwest.
The Hispanic population still holds many socially liberal views. Democratic issues with Hispanics are not about social issues; but rather economic.
The full partisan trend in HD47 can be seen below.
Those 2022 results being driven by turnout is clear when you see how much lower turnout was compared even with 2018. However, the 2024 results are a glaring warning about voter sentiment among Hispanic voters.
Final Thoughts
Thanks to Paula Stark’s campaign mistakes, Democrats are guaranteed to hold this seat in the State legislature. Next month, former Democratic nominee Anthony Nieves and Jorge Figueroa, the Chairman of the Puerto Rican Chamber of Commerce for Central Florida, will face off in the Democratic Primary. That primary will actually be open to all voters due to the lack of any other candidates being on the November ballot. I will discuss that primary in more detail in my upcoming deep dives on all major Florida primary races.
While HD47 won’t have a big battle for the legislature in November, what happens within the district is still very important. If HD47 votes for the statewide Democratic candidates, that will be a sign of Democratic improvement with Hispanic, namely Puerto Rican, voters. The March special elections in Tampa and Polk do point to a major swing to the Democrats with Hispanic voters. This was swing to the left was also captured in the Miami Mayor race last year. If these shifts are cemented in November, it will show that Democrats can reverse their trend with Hispanic voters.
While we all know a Democrat will represent HD47 after this year, what happens within the district is still very much worth keeping an eye on.
Great article and one IMPORTANT edit: it's ColOmbians (with an O, not U) not ColUmbians. The name of the country is Colombia, not Columbia.
Colombia and Columbia are spelled differently and mean different things: Colombia is the South American country, while Columbia is used for places and things in North America like the District of Columbia or Columbia University.