This year, residents in Orange County Florida will be voting in local elections for a revamped county commission. Thanks to a 2024 ballot measure, Orange County, which has seen its population go from 900,000 people in 2000 to 1.5 million in 2020, has expanded its number of county commissioners. After a 2025 of redistricting debate and meetings, a final map was approved that creates 8 new districts; up from the 6 that already existed.
In this article, I want to look at the changes in Orange County’s commission and examine the dynamics of local redistricting. This will also be a good time to examine the demographic and political changes in Orange County, and how the new map accounts for the area’s transformation.
Lets dive in.
Orange County’s Politics
If there is one thing that Orange County is most known for, its being home to the city of Orlando and the Disney World Resorts that sit just the city’s West. Orlando itself looms large in the county, being the county seat since the 1850s and covering a good chunk of urban Orange County.
While Orlando is well know, it is not the overwhelming share of Orange County. The city’s 320,000 people makes up just 20% of the county population. Another 20% are covered by 9 smaller cities while 60% are under no city structure. Orange has expanded as such a major urban hub that despite Orlando being culturally well known, it does not automatically dominate politics for the area.
The biggest story of Orange over the last 20 years has been the massive Demographic shift in the county. Orange is one of several counties that sit in the “I-4 Corridor” - a string of counties linked by the I-4 highway. This corridor has seen a massive growth in population, driven heavily by Hispanic voters. These voters are predominantly Puerto Rican, either coming into the area from the island itself or from the NYC metro area. Since they are already American citizens, they are able to engage in politics quickly.
I wrote about this major Hispanic growth in this May article. That piece also looks at how the Hispanic growth has affected redistricting decisions at the state and congressional level. It also covers how Ron DeSantis’ latest Congressional map CRACKS UP Puerto Rican voters to weaken their political influence.
Thanks to this major Hispanic growth, Orange has transformed from a heavily white county to a far more racially diverse one. Historically the county was largely white but with a Black minority. Today the county voter registration is just 45% white.
The shift in voter registration over the last 12 years can seen below. While southern neighbor Osceola has already become majority-Hispanic, Orange has seen consistent Hispanic growth, though it is unlikely to become plurality Hispanic anytime soon.
The massive demographic shift in Orange was the initial reason for the county undergoing a massive partisan shift. While the early 2000s saw the county evenly divided, similar to the statewide margins for races, the Obama era saw a major swings to the left. Major voter registration drives led to a spike in turnout among young non-white voters and the county went deep into the Democratic camp.
Democratic surges in support were initially driven by this voter demographic shift. However, that Democratic margin has been further aid by the growing shift to the left among educated white suburbs. Democratic gains with white suburbanites, which really kicked off in 2016 as Trump ran for President, saw the county vote for Hillary Clinton by 24 points. In 2020, Democrats began to lose ground with Hispanics, but held their margin in the county thanks to increasing white support. This was aided by Orlando becoming a prime destination for liberal whites.
In 2024, as Democrats continued to decline with Hispanic voters, the county saw a sizeable shift to the right. However, even with this swing, Kamala Harris still won the county by 14%.
In 2024, Democrats won big in the middle class white suburbs, only losing in the hyper-rich southwest communities and the rural towns on the far west and east of the county. Hispanic voters, once solidly blue in Orlando, barely stayed with Harris. Black voters were big for Harris, but turnout was down. Still, despite all of these issues, the county remained firmly Democratic. That is just how blue the county has become.
Local Political Dynamics
The political transformation in Orange at the Presidential level has been the same at the local level. Historically, Orange has been reliably Republican down-ballot. A major aid in this was that county commission races are formally non-partisan, so even as Obama swept the county in 2008 and 2012, the commission remained firmly Republican. In fact, after 2012, only the majority-Black 6th was in a registered Democrats hands.
However, as the following elections progressed, Orange Democrats organized locally and began to make major plays for commission seats; beginning with their first seat flip in 2016. These efforts, fueled by environmentalist concerns and worries about over-development, proved very successful. By the end of the 2020 elections, only one commission seat would remain in Republican hands.
With the end of the 2020 election cycle, only district 2 remained in a registered Republicans hands. Ironically the 2nd is more Democratic leaning than the 1st, which is near even and historically leans Republican.
Lower Racially Polarized Voting
As the county has continued to politically evolve with its racial diversity, the area shows much more limited racially-polarized voting. Partisan primaries and the non-partisan races show voters are more than willing to cross racial lines when considering candidates. The county has a diverse list of Black, Hispanic, and white elected officials; both countywide and at the district level; a case that has existed for decades, even before the demographic shifts. The current county board is two white commissioners, three Hispanic commissioners, and one Black commissioner.
Meanwhile, countywide races show broad election coalitions. In 2018, Jerry Demings, who was Orange County’s first Black Sheriff, ran for the county mayor post. In the non-partisan race, Demings easily secured over 50% to avoid a runoff, crushing two opponents.
Demings won across Hispanic, Black, and white communities. His only losses were largely in the heavily-Republican suburbs and rural precincts; which backed his two Republican-aligned opponents.
In 2020, Amy Mercado, a Hispanic state representative, ran for the post of Property Appraiser. In this democratic primary, where she took on scandal-plagued incumbent Rick Singh, Mercado easily prevailed.
In her landslide victory, she actually was strongest in the white liberal suburbs, even more so than with Hispanics. Black voters split between the two, with this likely attributed to Singh’s longtime tenure in the office and Republican attacks on him in the past. No notion of racially polarized voting occurred here, with Mercado becoming the first Puerto Rican Property Appraiser in Florida.
Legislative races have shown similar results. Geraldine Thompson, a longtime Black political leader, won a majority-white Democratic primary and general for a House seat in 2018. Progressive Anna Eskamani, Florida’s first Iranian state lawmaker, was likewise elected from a majority-white seat. These candidates not only won the white majority, but were also the candidates of choice for racial minority voters.
I bring up this minimal racially polarized voting because it matters when it comes to redistricting. As I wrote about in my deep dive on the History of the Voting Rights Act, concerns about using race to draw districts (whether Congress or local government) only apply when racially-polarized voting is a constant and serious issues that impedes minority community representation. Conservative critics of the act often overlook this fact and instead complain the VRA forces racial considerations everywhere. However, in Orange this is not the case - while it is the case in a place like Tennessee or North Florida. Of course, the gutting of the VRA is a topic for more future articles, and the previous ones I linked above.
With all this in mind, lets now look at the 2022, and then 2025, redistricting processes in Orange County.
The 2022 Redistricting Process
After the 2020 elections, the county was required to redistricting in accordance with the new census figures. While statewide redistricting became a massive drawn out battle, the situation in many local communities was far more collegial and technical. The county commission set up an advisory body to consider map updates to balance populations. No major efforts to “gerrymander” the lines took place and a new map was approved that kept the character of the old districts the same. The seat with the biggest change was the 4th district, which was heavily over-populated and hence lost territory. You can read more on this 2021-2022 process here.
The Hispanic growth in the county resulted in the 3rd district being 50% Hispanic, with the 4th at 47%. Voter registration data, which skews more white due to registration rates, still had Hispanics at 40% of both seats; with Black voters dominant in the 6th. However, the full story of the entire map was a increasingly diversified county.
While the 2022 redistricting was being conducted, there was no real drive to try and maximize Hispanic shares in either district. Instead of having two plurality-Hispanic seats, one super-majority Hispanic seat, which would also be over 50% Hispanic in registration, could have been drawn. However, this was not needed/warranted because of Orange County showing far less racially polarized voting.
This map would have likely continued to be the plan through the decade, as no lawsuits were pending on it. However, in 2024, voters decided to make a big change.
Expanding the Board
In 2024, Orange County has a long list of referendums to decide on. The county’s charter review board, which proposes changes every four years, put 10 measures before the voters. Several measures dealt with hot-button issues of environmental protections, while others were more technical changes, including the creation of a county attorney position.
Amendment 6 was the proposal to expand the county commission to 8 seats. The reasoning was simple, the county was growing so much that adding seats would keep commission districts from being so heavily populated that it would be hard for commissioners to meet the needs of their constituents. Going from 6 to 8 seats would lower the total residents for each district from around 230,000 to 170,000. In addition, two new districts could allow for commission lines that matched the emerging and changing communities of the county.
There was no major campaign on this amendment. The League of Women Voters and Orlando Sentinel backed it, as did the Orange County Democratic Party. However, no real campaign for YES took place. Voters narrowly approved the measure with 51% of the vote. All other charter amendments likewise passed.
The close vote likely comes down to voter concern about what such a change would mean. The risk of a new map being prone to gerrymandering was an easy concern, especially if a voter at the moment had no issue with the current map (or never even thought about it). Precinct data shows a mixed bag, however some key demographic trends can be gleamed.
Heavily Black precincts gave the measure 66% of the vote, the strongest of any demographic.
Hispanic precincts split nearly even
White Democratic pockets strongly backed the measure with around 60%
Republican areas were heavily against, just giving the measure 40%
Republican opposition and uncertainty among many Democratic-aligned voters led to the close result. A change of elections, especially with no detailed campaign about why the change is being considered, can naturally make voters more skeptical of such a move. Republican voters likely worried such a plan would lead to a gerrymandered map.
Concerns about gerrymandering or partisan considerations, however, appear to have been unfounded.
The 2025 Commission Redistricting Process
Shortly after the elections wrapped up, the county commission began the redistricting process. An advisory board was formed, similar to the 2022 process, to hold meetings, do research, and accept map submissions. In September of 2025, two proposals were submitted by this board to the county commission for consideration. They were titled plans 1A and 7B respectively. Both can be seen below.
Both plans are broadly similar, with differences between the border of districts 7 and 5 the main disagreement between the two maps. I will dive into that more in a moment.
The map borders are shaped by city and census-designated communities, aiming to keep as many of these entities from being split up. Only Orlando, which due to its sprawl and size, was destined to be divided up. Below you can see the district lines for both plans overlaid with city borders (bright/vibrant colors) and census-designated communities (faded colors).
The demographic makeup of the map, using Voting Age Population figures from the 2020 census, can be seen below. Both plans create two plurality Black and three plurality-Hispanic districts.
While race was no doubt considered, especially to ensure minority communities were not spread out (cracked) too much, the map also clearly it not aiming to pack minority voters. For example, a map could have been drafted that made two seats super-majority Hispanic. However, thanks to the lower level of racially-polarized voting, and the fact Hispanic candidates do well in less Hispanic areas, showed such a consideration was not needed.
A brief summary of each district is below.
District 1 - This retains the same character as its current makeup, just a bit smaller. It holds the Republican-leaning but Democratic-trending white suburbs and includes Disney World Resort
District 2 - Similar to the current version of district 2, this seat includes the more rural communities of NW Orange and includes the cities of Apopka and Ocoee.
District 3 - This covers a good chunk of urban Orlando, including growing Hispanic suburbs and white Democratic communities, as well as some rich Republican islands.
District 4 - Covering the growing Hispanic communities largely west of Orlando, the district is dominated by Alafaya, which despite not being a formal city has over 90,000 people in the vicinity.
District 5 - (see section below)
District 6 - This is the inheritor of the current 6th. This seat includes many of the heavily Black neighborhoods of western Orlando and the Oak Ridge community. It unites several compact Black neighborhoods.
District 7 - (see section below)
District 8 - Covering the southern border of Orange County, this district includes many of the heavily Hispanic communities that have expanded from Kissimmee down in Osceola County. Neighborhoods like Hunters Creek, Meadow Woods and Southchase dominate this area.
So what is the story with Districts 5 and 7?
Where to put Winter Park
Both district plans had a similar dynamic for Commission Seats 5 and 7, with the main issue being which seat should take the city of Winter Park.
District 5 included several of the communities in the north end of the county and the low-populated rural east end of the district. While the seat appears very elongated, the vast majority of the population is centered in the district’s west end. To highlight this, I divided up District 5 in plan 7B into eight equally-populated districts, each holding around 23,000 people.
As this layout demonstrates, a vast majority of the population is clustered in the string of communities along Highway 50; going from Winter Park to the University of Central Florida. The rural east, seen in yellow, is sparsely populated. The area south of highway 538, meanwhile, has less than 200 total residents
To the west of District 5 is District 7, which is centered in the predominantly African-American Pine Hills community. The district, also including the historic Black town of Eatonville and the white suburb of Maitland, is a plurality Black seat in both proposed maps. The question becomes, does Winter Park go in District 7 (like in Plan 1A) or District 5 (like Plan 7B). Below is a layout of the two district overlaps and the areas under dispute.
Many residents in Winter Park, including the city government itself, pushed to be part of District 7 instead of district 5. The complaint from Winter Park was that being in district 5 lumped them in with rural communities with little shared common interest. As Winter Park Vice Mayor Marty Sullivan stated
“Map 7B would combine Winter Park with a mainly rural area that has quite different issues and priorities in the best interest of my city and our neighboring municipalities.”
Now I do feel this view is a mistake, as my previous map of District 5 shows… a vast majority of the district is centered in the urban core of the county. Current District 5 commissioner Kelly Martinez Semrad, who’s district includes Winter Park, likewise bushed back on the city claim, pointing out Winter Park is currently part of a district with a similar shape.
A further concern about Winter Park was the impact if it was placed in the 7th district. Many local leaders and public commenters argued that Pine Hill, a historically poorer Black community, would be constantly having to battle with the whiter and more affluent Winter Park for services and political consideration. While Black voters were the largest racial group in District 7 under Plan 1A, the registration figures told a different story; with a proposed district with a stark racial divide.
Despite the census figures, whiter voters far outpace Black voters in this proposed 7th district due to the higher registration rate in white suburbs. Outside of historic Eatonville (the oldest Black city in Florida), the district has a stark dividing line. This line is not only a racial division, but an economic division. As Pine Hill resident Seven Charlestin stated
“Winter Park is a homeowner-heavy, car-dependent area, and that is the identity of most of the communities in District 5. Maitland, Pine Hills and Eatonville, we’re more transit-heavy. We’re more renter-heavy,”"
The debate about Pine Hill and Winter Park can be read more about here. The broad concern was that a commissioner of the 7th would likely be able to win on just Maitland and Winter Park, and Pine Hill, which needed county investment to try and revitalize and grow, could be lost in the political wilderness. This was not simply a debate on race, but rather a debate over economics and political persuasion within a district. It hinges on “is this proposal created a cohesive community, or instead a district with two sides constantly fighting for control of the seat.”
The alternative layout for District 7 in Plan 7B can be seen below. There is still a stark racial dividing line, but there is more balance between the whiter more affluent areas and Pine Hill.
This proposed district creates a scenario where neither the Orlando, Maitland, or Pine Hill communities can be overlooked by anyone seeking office. While the east and west have different issues/concerns, such a layout, which keeps either from having full control, would be force cooperation on big picture issues.
Final Map Decision
The debate over Winter Park and Pine Hills was the only major contention as the final decision on a map approached. In the end, the county commission advanced Plan 7B, which kept Winter Park in District 5; a victory for Pine Hill. The vote was 5-2, with Orange Mayor Jerry Demings and commissioners Nicole Wilson, Maribel Cordero, Kelly Semrad, and Mike Scott voting YES. The two dissenting votes were Democrat Mayra Uribe and lone-Republican Christine Moore.
How the final map looks, compared with the outgoing lines, can be seen below.
With this vote, Orange County has now formally expanded its county commission, with elections scheduled for 2026.
Looking Ahead and Final Thoughts
The Orange County redistricting process was something I wanted to cover for two reasons. One, it was a good opportunity to delve into an often-overlooked topic of local redistricting. Two, it is a good example of redistricting in racially diverse communities but with less racially-polarized voting. The Orange County redistricting story showed how evolving racial dynamics can shift which redistricting criteria take center stage. As the debate over District 7 highlighted, while race is sometimes a factor in decisions, economic and “communities of interest” also play a role in deciding which map best represents cities and neighborhoods.
In next month’s primary, voters will elect new commissioners to districts 7 and 8. Meanwhile districts 2, 4, and 6 will also host races for their revamped seats. Believe it or not, but localities don’t often have to have everyone run for re-election when redistricting happens. Instead commission seats 1, 3, and 5, all elected in 2024, won’t have to go to the ballot till 2028. I will look at the races for commission in my upcoming primary preview coverage in the next several weeks; which will be covering primary races up and down ballot across Florida!
Funnily enough, this is one of two counties nationally that voted for Bob Dole in 1996 and Al Gore in 2000.