Issue #244: Florida's Quiet Legislative Special Elections

Three seats, all expected to easily remain with the GOP

Tomorrow, June 10th, Florida will be holding three special legislative elections. In Brevard County, voters in Senate District 19 and House District 32 will be electing new members. Meanwhile, Florida panhandle voters in parts of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa will be picking who to represent House District 3. All of these respective districts are solidly Republican.

State House District 3 is one the reddest seats in Florida and would never flip even in nationwide Democratic landslide. However, Senate 19 and House 32; seats that both voted for Trump by 19%, are actually less Republican than the two Congressional seats that held special elections back in April. I covered those races here. While both remained Republican, each saw massive swings to the Democrats.

• The 1st Congressional margin swung 22%, going from Trump +37% to GOP +15% in the 2025 special.

• The 6th Congressional margin swung 16%, going from Trump +30% to GOP +14% in the special.

The big swings in the Congressional specials, if replicated, could make the Brevard legislative seats competitive. However, there is ample reason those swings are not expected to repeat.

The short and simple answer is that the Congressional races generate big money and attention due to so few Congressional specials going on at the time. The 1st and 6th were so Republican that initially no one expected the generals to see any focus. However, as I discussed in my coverage of the races, the congressional seats became a conduit for anti-Trump sentiment and money, allowing them to become major battlegrounds.

This dynamic has existed with some, but not all, legislative special elections in 2025. Some legislative seats have seen big money and focus, but those are often swing seats or those less red/blue than the seats up for grabs here in Florida. No national interest has trickled to Brevard. Meanwhile, Florida Democrats have far less money than the Florida Republicans, and it would be political malpractice to try and burn limited cash on such red seats. Flipping either SD19 or HD32 would not change the GOP super-majority in the legislature and both would flip back to Republicans the next time they are up.

As a result, we have a batch of legislative special elections with little money being spent and no chances of shock flips occurring. That said, I wanted to still offer up a short preview of the races. It will also be worth watching how the final results match with Presidential toplines, and if they see swings regardless, like so many other special elections have seen.

Lets dive in.

State Senate District 19

Covering much of Brevard County, stretching right up to Kennedy Space Center, Senate District 19 has been a reliably Republican district. Few democratic strongholds exist, with towns like Melbourne and Palm Bay being regularly Republican. It has become open after State Senator Randy Fine won the special election for the 6th Congressional district.

House District 32 State Representative Debbie Mayfield is the Republican candidate for the seat. As you can see from the above map, her district sits entirely within Senate 19. Mayfield became the nominee with an easy win the April Republican primary, winning every precinct.

Her massive win was not a shock. For those who don’t follow Florida politics closely, Mayfield WAS the State Senator for the district until she hit term limits in 2024. That year she opted to run for HD32, and Randy Fine ran for the senate seat. When the special election was called, Mayfield was allowed to run because term limits are not lifetime bans. In short, her brief time away from the Senate has reset term limits for her.

A major drama arose when Ron DeSantis’ ally, far-right Secretary of State Cord Byrd, tried to keep Mayfield off the ballot by claiming she was not eligible to run. DeSantis and Mayfield do not get along and DeSantis wanted to get an ally into the seat. The move failed, with the Florida Supreme Court unanimously striking down Byrd’s efforts. I covered that whole saga here.

With Mayfield now the nominee, no one expects her to have trouble taking the seat back. Mayfield has proven to be quite popular in the region. In the 2024 House elections, Mayfield had the strongest GOP over-performance from Donald Trump of any candidate. In her race, she got 3,200 more votes than Trump.

Only Democrat Allison Tant, who did 10% better than Harris in HD9, was a stronger House candidate. I actually wrote about Tant’s strong over-performance in this article.

Mayfield’s easy wins in general and primary election shows voters in this region have come to trust her. No indication exists she has any trouble. Mayfield’s only issue in the general election has been that she cannot raise any money. Due to the Florida legislature still being in session, a product of a protracted budget impasse, Mayfield, as a member of the Florida house, is barred from raising money. How much any political committees have spent for Mayfield is unclear. If Mayfield was seen as having any trouble, Florida Republican committees would swoop in with their own efforts.

Mayfield may not be raising money, but she likely does not need to. Her opponent, Democrat Vance Ahrens, has only been able to bring in $16,000. Ahrens ran for State Senate back in 2024, losing to Randy Fine 59% to 41%. Ahrens is unfortunately not well known and does not have the resources for an aggressive campaign.

All the fundamentals point to an easy Mayfield win. The lone hope for a Democratic shock in SD19 would if turnout was lopsided; with Republicans being outpaced by Democrats. However, that is now what the current voting figures tell us. Democrats actually have higher turnout right now, but in a district that has 77,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, the result is a vote cast that is still solidly red.

The 2% turnout lead for Democrats is better than the GOP’s 5% lead back in 2024. However, Republicans already make up more than half of the votes cast. Election Day, while likely light in total votes, will also skew Republican. This electorate is already far too red for a Democratic candidate to win, especially against someone like Mayfield.

This seat will remain in GOP hands and Mayfield will be returning to the State Senate.

State House District 32

Sticking right with Brevard County, lets look at HD32. This seat, very much like Senate 19, gave Donald Trump 59% of the vote. It is a sea of modest, but consistent Republican communities. Parts of Melbourne sit in its southeast end.

The big story of this race was the expensive three-way Republican Primary. I covered that primary here. Three well-funded Republican candidates vied for the seat. In the end, insurance man Brian Hodgers secured a 35% win over dermatologist Terry Cronin and conservative activist Bob White. The primary was a near perfect three-way split; with only 500 votes separating 3rd from 1st place.

Once Hodges secured the primary, he was considered safe for the general election. Democrat Juan Hinojosa, a 30-year military veteran, is not very well known. He has struggled to raise money, bringing in just $4,600. Hodges, for his trouble, has raised a solid $140,000 for the general election, just to be sure.

Similar to Senate 19, the registration in HD32 is solidly Republican. Turnout right now leans a bit Democratic, but the result is still a vote total that is over 50% Republican.

Like Senate 19, Republican and Democratic share of the vote cast is up from 2024; a result of low independent turnout. These electorates ensure the Republicans will win the seats; even if there are party defections and strong swings with independents. How much Republicans even defect remains to be seen, as low-turnout races tend to lead to those unhappy with their party just staying home.

Swings or not, no swing would be big enough to flip HD32.

State House District 3

Even if there was a world where Republicans were at risk of losing SD19 or HD32, there would be no scenario where they are in trouble to lose HD3. This seat, located in the western panhandle of Florida, is one of the top 5 most Republican seats in the state. It is open due to State Representative Joel Rudman resigning to run for Congress; where he lost the primary to Jimmy Patronis.

In 2024, he seat gave Trump 77% of the vote. In the recent Congressional special election, it still voted solidly to the right of the entire congressional seat. Republican Jimmy Patronis secured 66% in HD3 as he secured a 57% win in the entire congressional seat.

This district sits in the heart of longtime Republican dominance. Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties have long been ruby red, even in times of Democratic landslides. When Bill Nelson was winning 62% in his 2006 re-election, he was still losing these two counties.

The real drama in this district was the Republican Primary; which I discussed here. Eight Republican candidates ran. However, the two frontrunners represented different regions of the district.

• Nathan Boyles (Okaloosa County)

  • Former County Commissioner until 2024

  • Raised $150,000

  • Endorsed by Jimmy Patronis

  • Endorsed by Okaloosa County officials

  • Backing of area lawmakers and Sheriffs

• Shon O. Owens (Santa Rosa County)

  • Mayor of Jay, FL

  • Raised $80,000 and loaned another $40,000

  • Backing of all Santa Rosa County Commissioners

The primary was heavily driven by the issue of representation for Santa Rosa County. Rudman was from Santa Rosa, which does control 80% of the primary vote. The worry that Boyles might win was a concern for many Santa Rosa residents, who felt the seat was a “Santa Rosa seat.” The big issue was Santa Rosa was divided. Rudman himself backed Hayden Hudson, who also resided in Santa Rosa. Cynthia Smith, a firebrand conservative activist, also resided in Santa Rosa. Boyles, meanwhile, was the primary candidate of Okaloosa, with a few other candidates from the county having little money.

The primary results saw Boyles narrowly carry the seat, edging out Owens by 4% of the vote.

The geographic divide of the vote is especially remarkable. Boyles’ key to victory was the massive margin over Owens in the east end of Okaloosa and his ability to win southern Santa Rosa. Owens, meanwhile, had a massive base in the Jay community he lead, and broadly did well in the northwest end of the district.

While Santa Rosa dominated the vote total, that vote was divided. Boyles managed to secure a solid 33% in Santa Rosa. Owens lagged much further in Okaloosa.

Another look at the primary vote can be seen here, comparing the Boyles and Owens margin relative to each-other. The district has a perfect regional divide - with Owens winning the Northwest rurals and Boyles dominating east Okaloosa and taking southern Santa Rosa.

Noe Boyles must get through the general election. This is of course a formality. There is no scenario where this seat would go Democratic. Its just that red. Despite this, Boyles has still put some effort in. He’s raised $60,000 for the general

His Democratic opponent, Dondre Wise, meanwhile, has not even filed a finance report for his last two deadlines. Before then, he raised $6,000. Wise does not even live in the district, residing in Escambia County instead. Not that a perfect campaign could win this for Democrats. That said, not filing finance reports is basic stuff here.

Interest in this race is virtually non-existent. The current turnout is only around 5%. Even with Democrats leading in turnout, with a solid 8%, the vote cast right now is still 65% registered Republican. To be sure, this will remain in GOP hands.

Final Thoughts

There likely won’t be much to say for the special elections happening tomorrow. I’ll be keeping my eye on them to see if there are any swings to the left; something that would be more a product of national moods than any campaigns. These races, understandably, have not generated the focus that the Congressional fights did.