Issue #225: The Strongest Florida State House Candidate: Allison Tant
No one performed better than
Two weeks ago, I published the 2024 Presidential Results by Florida State House District. I looked at the broad statewide trends and covered how down-ballot candidates did. In that piece, I pointed out that HD9 Democratic State Representative Allison Tant was the strongest overperformer in the state house. Her 14.1% margin of victory over Republican Spencer Brass massively outshined Kamala Harris’ 4.4% win in the seat. No other house candidate overperformed their party’s Presidential nominee by so much.
This article will look closer at how HD9 split its ticket by so much.
Statewide Results
You can go here to see the full breakdown of the State House Districts in 2024. Thanks to his 13% statewide win, Donald Trump carried 85 Districts to Kamala Harris’ 35. All but one district swung to the right compared with the 2020 Presidential election.
In much of the state, Republican house candidates outperformed the top of the ticket. Democrats did have some stronger performances around urban centers; especially around Orlando. However, no district saw more ticket splitting than HD9 - nestled in Tallahassee and the neighboring rural counties.
Allison Tant’s 14.1% margin was 9.7% higher than Kamala Harris. In an era where ticket splitting is becoming less and less, a near 10% over-performance is quiet the accomplishment.
The Battle of HD9
Heading into 2024, it wasn’t always clear if Allison Tant would get a Republican opponent. Tant, elected in 2020 and unopposed in 2022, is seen as a very difficult to defeat. In addition to the fact the district leaned Democratic, having backed Biden by 9 points in 2020, Tant had a strong base of support in Tallahassee and is an aggressive fundraiser.
Then in June, Spencer Brass, a 26 year old in real-estate and development, entered the contest. Brass, who is gay, is married to Dylan Leoni, the son of prominent Tallahassee developer Steven Leoni. Already with a net worth of over $5 million, Brass is already considered part of the developer community in Tallahassee. In him, Republicans hoped to try and oust Tant.
I covered the campaign in detail back in October of last year. Check this out for far more detail on the tactics and messaging of the campaigns. I will summarize events here, however.
Once Brass entered the race, Republicans put their financial weight behind him. Hundreds of thousands were spent attacking Tant on a myriad of issues, but major attacks came on the issues of crime and transgender rights. Anti-trans ads attacked Tant, claiming she wasn’t “protecting women.” Brass never denounced these ads, and in fact claimed it was the fault of LGBT activists for the large number of anti-LGBT legislation being pushed. Brass stated
“As someone who is a member of the LGBTQ community, people don’t care. And if we stop making such an inflamed argument, people don’t care. So if everyone would just simmer down about it.”
Brass’ claim fell flat with Tallahassee’s queer community and Tant secured endorsements from major LGBT organization. His nonsensical view is something I will address in a separate article.
Brass focused heavily on attacking Tant and remained cagey on many issues. He would not say how he’d vote for President or for the amendments to legalize marijuana or codify abortion rights. Instead Brass relied on attacking Tant through Republican Party spending and plastering the district with his advertising. Yards signs polluted the district at a rate I’d never seen before in the city. Through all of that, however, no one really expected Tant to be at risk. The overperformance, however, was far greater than many expected.
The 2024 Detailed Results
When the votes came in, it was quickly apparent that Tant would cruise to victory. She secured 57% of the vote, winning both Leon and Jefferson County while making a very strong showing in Madison. Tant also managed to take GOP-leaning suburbs in Leon County - namely places like Killearn Estates and Summerbrook - while also taking Trump-friendly rural communities.
As Tant secured a double-digit victory, Harris managed a 4.4% win in the district. Harris’s win came amid worse rural showings and less strength in the northern suburbs than Tant had.
Tant outperformed Harris across every precinct, save for one. That precinct, which barely registered on the map, is a sliver on the border in Leon that had just 10 votes. Otherwise, Tant secured solid overperformances across the suburbs of Tallahassee and absolutely massive gaps in the rural communities. Jefferson County especially stands out.
I did not include a swing for the lone precinct in Jefferson County that is split by House District 7 and 9.
The President vs State House data by county can be seen below. Tant overperformed Harris by 8% in Leon, which matters the most sense it was 85% of the vote cast. While Leon is the most critical county for the district, Tant’s rural overperformances are absolutely massive.
Tant’s margin was 22% higher than Harris in Jefferson and 16% higher in Madison. These ancestral Democratic counties once were reliably blue, but have trended far to the right like much of the panhandle. Tant, however, showed there is still some life for a Democrat there. I’ll talk more about these counties in a moment.
There are really two ways to look at how a down-ballot candidate performed compared to the top of the ticket. Some down-ticket differences can also be related to who votes all the way down ticket. Republicans believe that they lost several congressional or US Senate races because of Trump voters not voting further down ticket. Was that the case in HD9? Well lets look.
Below is a table of the top 5 Democratic and Republican overperformers. The columns on the right show if if the house candidates got more or less votes than their party’s presidential nominee.
As the table shows, Allison Tant secured 4,000 MORE votes than Kamala Harris; the most raw votes over the top of the ticket for any district. We see that in districts like HD46 or HD106, all candidates did worse than their presidential counterparts. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Debbie Mayfield got 3,200 more votes than Trump in HD32. Mayfield, a State Senator who was termed out and hence running house, was the strongest Republican overperformer. However, she didn’t match Tant’s strength on the Democratic side of things.
Another important point. While Tant got 4,000 more votes than Harris, Spencer Brass was getting 6,300 fewer votes than Trump. Meanwhile the area with the highest number of ballots left blank for State House was in the democrat-friendly FSU area. For Tant to still come out 4,000 votes ahead of Harris, that means she secured an even larger number of otherwise Republican voters.
Tant and Harris were not the only Democrats on the ballot in HD9. All the major races in the 9th district are below. The district was one of the true ticket-splitters of the state. It backed Harris for President but Scott for US Senate, the lone district to do so. Meanwhile it also backed Neal Dunn for Congress and Corey Simon for State Senate.
Allison Tant was by far the strongest performing Democrat in the district by a wide margin. So the only quest is - where any Democrats on the ballot with Tant stronger than her? Lets look at each county.
The Leon Suburbs
Looking at the results in each county, its good to start with the heavyweight that is Leon County. This portion of the district is made up of part of the FSU campus, Democratic-leaning middle class suburbs, and Republican-leaning northern suburbs and exurbs. This portion of Leon has grown bluer with time; backing Obama by 3% in 2012 and then Biden by 13% in 2020. This time around, Harris won the area by just 9 point, but Tant won it by 17!!
Declines in the suburbs from the 2020 high was a major Democratic problem nationwide. This did not effect Tant, however, who blew past everyone else to secure a margin Democrats really needed Harris to have in order to have chance nationwide. All other democrats did worse than Harris there - leaving Tant easily the top Democrat in the county.
Of note, no partisan local races were on the Leon ballot that November, but that is not the case in the other two counties.
The Rural Counties
As mentioned before, as I’ve written about much in the last decade, the rural communities around Tallahassee were once land of blue dog conservative democrats. Many of these counties would just lean red nationally, but be very Democratic down-ticket. Today that dynamic is largely gone - with the counties red up and down the ticket and only a few local democratic officials remaining. Both Madison and Jefferson have sizeable Black minority populations, the lone thing keeping them from becoming even redder.
Jefferson County
Jefferson County remained a Democratic-leaning county until it flipped to Trump in 2016. Even then, down-ballot offices like Tax Collector, Sheriff, or County Commission, remained more Democratic. It was not until 2024 that Republicans took control of the county commission and hold 4 of the 6 countywide local offices. The year was overall a good one for Jefferson Republicans, with just two local offices going Democratic. So how did those compare to Tant? Lets see.
As noted before, Jefferson County is divided by state house districts. However, the HD9 portion makes up 87% of the county vote. The table below is for the portion of Jefferson county in HD9 only.
Allison Tant easily bested the Democrats further up the ballot, and outperformed the Democratic candidate for Tax Collector. The strongest Democrat was longtime Property Appraiser Angela Gray - who scored 70% in the district and countywide. This, on display right here, is the power of longtime officials in rural counties where everyone knows who you are. Meanwhile, the Superintendent race saw principle Jackie Pons, who once was Superintendent in Leon County, defeat former GOP Superintendent Al Cooksey. This race was rife with political drama and debates over the history of Jefferson Schools. Its a story I intend to cover in more detail later this year.
While Tant was never going to be as strong as local candidates like Gray or Pons, she far outshined Democrats further up the ticket. Tant winning the Jefferson portion of the district came as a shock to many - as Biden had lost it by 4% in 2020. The area then swung 12 points to the right at the federal level, but Tant still won it by nearly 6. The fact Tant overperformed the Tax Collector race and that State Senate was solidly red shows this was not just a “always blue further down ticket” situation. Tant had specific appeal in Jefferson.
Madison County
Finally over in Madison, Tant’s 13 point loss in the district is actually a really strong modern showing. Like Jefferson, Madison has undergone a massive right-wing shift in the last decade. The county once leaned Republican for President, with Obama losing it by only 3% in both 2008 and 2012. Trump, however, won the county by 15% in 2016 and then 19% in 2020. This time, the county backed Trump by 29%!
Like Jefferson, down-ballot Madison has grown increasingly Republican. A decade ago the entire county commission was Democratic, but today Republicans hold a majority on the board. Meanwhile all but one of the countywide offices has gone Republican. The lone Democratic office remaining is Tax Collector - which saw candidate Robin Hart narrowly win the post last November. Hart was the the only Democrat to outperform Allison Tant.
Hart was the deputy tax collector for longtime Democratic incumbent Lisa Tuten. Her opponent was Republican County commissioner Brian Williams. Hart was seen as a natural successor to Tuten; who is well liked in the county. The perception that Williams was simply looking to move up the political ladder also dragged on him. Again in rural, close-nit counties these perceptions can matter a great deal.
Outside of that race, Tant outperformed Democrats up and down ballot. Several other local countywide races saw Democrats dragged down by the national headwinds. Tant’s performance above all the other local candidates really stands out.
Final Thoughts
Allison Tant’s overperformance in House District 9 is impressive no matter how you look at it. Tant not only outperformed Harris and other federal Democrats, she outpaced other legislative and local candidates as well. In the end, only a handful of local Democratic officials can boast stronger bases of support within their counties. Tant, has managed to forge a coalition that allows to outperform in the rural counties while also outperforming in vote-heavy Leon.
Republicans have long wanted to take House District 9. However, with Allison Tant in the seat, I think their money is best spent elsewhere. Tant retains firm control of the 9th State House District. Only term limits would end her tenure.