Issue #236: Special Election Day in Florida - Final Notes

We have two Congressional elections and some legislative primaries

Today is election day in Florida. We have two special elections for Congress and some legislative primaries I want to discuss. With no delay, because votes are being cast as we speak, lets dive in.

The Final Special Election Look

Today voters will decide their new Congresspeople for the 1st and 6th Congressional districts on Florida. In the 1st District, Republican Jimmy Patronis is facing off with Democrat Gay Valimont. In the 6th District, Republican Randy Fine is facing off against Democrat Josh Weil. Despite the 1st district backing Trump by 38% and the 6th backing him by 30%, both districts have given Republicans heartburn. The 6th has become especially concerning for Republicans. I covered all the details of that in this Friday article.

Issue #235: These Florida Specials were not supposed to be Competitive

In my Friday article, I laid out how hard it would be for Democrats to actually flip the 1st or the 6th. However, thanks to strong Democratic turnout, millions of money flowing to the Democratic candidates, and weak GOP nominees, the national Republican Party has been forced to scramble to shore these races up.

In the 1st district, which is arguably the reddest seat in Florida, Jimmy Patronis appears to be in good shape. Current votes cast in the 1st come out to GOP +18.

This margin is still FAR from the 2024 figures, and Democrats maintain a firm turnout lead. However, that turnout gap of 10 points STILL not being enough shows just how red this district is. While Patronis isn’t the most inspiring candidate, he’s also not as contentious as Randy Fine down in the 6th. As such, its easy to imagine he holds the vast bulk of Republican voters, who already make up more than half the vote. Patronis is definitely poised to underperform Trump’s 38 point margin, but will almost surely win.

Things are much more tight in the 6th district. This Trump +30 seat is giving Republicans plenty of heartburn. Right now, Republicans hold a 9 point vote cast lead in the district, with Democratic turnout eclipsing Republicans like in the 1st.

In most races, GOP +9 would already be enough for a near-guaranteed Republican victory. However, both parties do not appear to think that is the case here. With Republican Randy Fine being such a contentious and controversial figure (see my Friday article for more) - polling indicates he is not keeping his party united.

A St Pete Polls survey showed Fine up 4 points; with him losing a chunk of Republican's to Weil. The poll indicated those who already cast ballots were backing Weil, while those yet to vote would back Fine. If we apply the party support in the poll to the current ballots cast, we have Weil up by around 2,000 votes among those already casting ballots.

Now I must stress, this is an academic exercise on my part to see how the polling data might apply to current turnout. This is one poll, and party-breakdowns have bigger margins of error. These margins of error could benefit Fine or Weil. The sample could be off. The voters could be shifting their decisions. I, in no way, am saying “Weil up 2K” is a lock. These numbers should be thought off as estimates.

If these numbers are close to accurate, while Fine does trail right now, it still leaves the GOP in good enough shape to secure the win. Election Day is expected to lean heavily to the GOP. How much, and how many turn out, remains to be seen. Below you can see the party makeup of votes cast in the district for both 2024 and this special.

The in-person early voting was still solidly red this time, but notably less so than it was in November. The same Democratic over-performance could happen with Election Day, but there are also FAR more Republicans left to cast ballots. As this table below shows, far more super voting Republicans remain in the district.

There are plenty of Republicans that can turn out day. Logic would state that even with Democrats continuing to churn out their voters, there is sure to be a solid GOP lean with Election Day.

If the St Pete poll party estimates are right, then Fine should win. However, he is hardly in a secure spot. You’d “rather be him” - as is said in weighing likely election results - but it is not “SAFE” like the 1st Congressional is.

Fine is likely to win, but he will very likely have one of the biggest under-performances in modern politics. His biggest saving grace is how red the district is. If he does manage to fall, however, it would be an upset on par with the 2017 Alabama Senate special.

Obviously the 6th Congressional is what I will be watching the closest today. However, there are other seats I am keeping an eye on as well, namely to see how some Republican politics shakes out in the legislature.

Special Legislative Primaries

As Florida political eyes will remain fixated on the Congressional elections, there are a few other races happening the same day. In Brevard County and the panhandle, a batch of legislative primaries are happening; all tied to the Congressional vacancies. With all districts in question being deep red, the Republican Primaries are the main attraction.

State Senate 19: The Primary DeSantis tried to Stop

When Randy Fine opted to run for Congress, he had to leave the State Senate seat he was just elected to. His Brevard-county district sits entirely outside the Congressional seat he is running for.

The frontrunner for this seat is Debbie Mayfield, a former State Senator and current member of the Florida House. In 2024, Mayfield won HD32, which sits within the State Senate District. At the time she was termed out as State Senator, being ultimately replaced by Fine.

With Fine now giving up the Senate Seat he’s just won, Mayfield said “hey yeah I’d like that seat back” and announced she was running in the special election. Under Florida term limits, which largely limit lawmakers to eight consecutive years in a legislative post, Mayfield could not run again in 2024. She was, however, allowed to run for the State House, which she did and won. However, with her now being out of the State Senate for several months, the limits for the Senate have reset, allowing her to start anew in that chamber. For many this may seem to violate the spirit of the law, but its been commonly done by lawmakers. Senators run for House, or House run for Senate, and so on.

Things got chaotic, however, when Secretary of State Cord Byrd threw out Mayfield’s candidacy, claiming she did not meet the state’s term limits. He argued that sense Mayfield was a Senator less than a year ago, the limits had not reset yet. It must be stressed Byrd had no authority to make such a declaration. I wrote all about the decision, and its dangerous precedent, here. Byrd here was not looking out for the spirit of the constitution. Instead, it was because Mayfield had backed Trump over DeSantis in the 2024 primaries and Byrd is a major backer of DeSantis. Mayfield said the move was retribution from the Governor and pledge to appeal. I wrote about all that in the link above.

The Supreme Court of Florida was quick to smack down Byrd’s argument about term limits. First, the court unanimously ruled that Mayfield was eligible to run for the State Senate seat. The court stated that there was no limit on lifetime terms, but rather only against consecutive terms.

“If the people of Florida want other limitations on the time their elected officials may serve, they can incorporate such language explicitly through the constitutional amendment process. However, until they choose to do so, we cannot read a prohibition into the constitution that does not exist.”

The court opinions went even further, with several justices taking Secretary Byrd to task for interfering in the election process and making a ruling he was not qualified to give. The ruling re-asserted that the Secretary of State has no authority for deterring eligibility to run. Justice Canady, a staunch conservative that was once on Trump’s Supreme Court shortlist, wrote on the matter….

“This case has come to us because the Secretary has — without any plausible legal basis — taken action that threatens to disrupt the orderly and fair administration of the special election for Senate District 19.”

Once Mayfield was back in the race, she quickly racked up the endorsements of Republican leaders who are not Ron DeSantis. The Senate Republican leadership formally endorsed her, as did Randy Fine. Mayfield has the backing of the Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity. She has raised $170,000 and is the overwhelming frontrunner to take back the seat.

The original DeSantis candidate in this race was former Melbourne Commissioner Tim Thomas, who switched to the State Senate race just as Mayfield was being disqualified. It seemed DeSantis was angling to push Thomas. However, with Mayfield back in, Thomas has received little help and only raised $14,000.

Meanwhile, conservative activist Marcie Adkins has raised $33,000 and loaned another $5,000. Adkins is most known for losing 2-1 to Randy Fine in a 2020 State House Primary. I wrote about that here (go to State House 52 section) and how the race had a nasty bent of anti-Semitism coming from white nationalists in Brevard County. Adkins was notable for not condemning comments made by anti-Semites backing her over Fine.

Finally, first time candidate Mark Lightner has raised $7,5000 and loaned another $4,5000.

By all accounts, Mayfield appears poised to return to the State Senate. Her opponents lag in name-ID and money, and the issue of term limits has not appeared to drag on Mayfield. My position long has been that voters like term limits except when someone they like is running. Voters seem to like Mayfield just fine.

What is especially telling here, however, is the lack of DeSantis involvement in the race. Even with Mayfield in, DeSantis could have worked to steer support to Thomas, who was clearly recruited to run. However, Thomas has been left drifting in the breeze. It says a good deal about DeSantis’ weak power position at this moment.

State House 32

With Mayfield running for State Senate again, her House Seat is now up for grabs. Here we see three candidates have filed, and all of them have their own paths to victory.

First up is dermatologist Terry Cronin, who has raised $145,000 and loaned his campaign another $235,000. Cronin, who has led the American Academy of Dermatology in the past, has the backing of the Florida Medical Association and has see large numbers of donations from doctors. State Senator Randy Fine and Brevard Commissioner Thad Altman have endorsed him; as has HD33 Rep Monique Miller. Cronin does have some residency questions, including possibly listing his doctor’s office address as his residency.

Next up is insurance man Brian Hodgers, who has raised $347,000 - with about $250,000 of that being money he gave to the campaign himself (but not as a loan). Hodgers has the backing of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Titusville Mayor Andrew Connors. Hodgers has argued his insurance background would make him most adept to work on the homeowners insurance issues that plague Florida right now. His opponents counter that he is too close to the industry. A committee, MAGA Florida, touted Hodgers on their slate card, but this led to an angry response from the State GOP for the flier resembling official party endorsements.

The final candidate is Conservative Activist Bob White. The head of the Brevard Liberty Caucus, White has raised $40,000 but boosted his campaign with a $100,000 loan. White is running as an outsider to both Hodgers and Cronin.

No guesses on the winner, could see it go to any of them.

State House 3

Meanwhile, back up in the Florida panhandle, a very crowded primary is underway for House District 3. This seat is being vacated by State Rep Joel Rudman, a result of his failed primary against Jimmy Patronis for the 1st Congressional. In 2022, Rudman won the Republican primary for this seat with 62%. You can see how the district is nestled right in the 1st Congressional district.

The district covers most of Santa Rosa County, only losing part of the coast to HD2, while also taking northern rural Okaloosa. Around 80% of the district’s Republican voters come from Santa Rosa county.

The district has been partially cast in the context of the fight for county representation. Santa Rosa officials have pointed out the need for having a lawmaker from the county to fight for their concerns. The two financial frontrunners of the race reflect a Santa Rosa vs Okaloosa dynamic. The two leading candidates are…

• Nathan Boyles (Okaloosa County)

  • Former County Commissioner until 2024

  • Raised $150,000

  • Endorsed by Jimmy Patronis

  • Endorsed by Okaloosa County officials

  • Backing of area lawmakers and Sheriffs

• Shon O. Owens (Santa Rosa County)

  • Mayor of Jay, FL

  • Raised $80,000 and loaned another $40,000

  • Backing of all Santa Rosa County Commissioners

In terms of the dynamic between these two candidates, Boyle clearly has more institutional support. In addition to all the area lawmakers backing him, he’s got backing from The Chamber of Commerce and other business interests. He also has the backing of the Santa Rosa Sheriff. Owens, meanwhile, has seen a good deal of consolidation around the issue of giving Santa Rosa a voice. Whether than message resonates enough with voters is the big question.

Meanwhile, outgoing State Rep Rudman has rejected both candidates, considering them “insiders.” He is instead backing Assistant State Attorney Hayden Hudson, who also resides in Santa Rosa County. Hudson who has raised $27,000 and loaned another $10,000. How much this endorsement matters remains to be seen, as Rudnam only secured 20% of the vote within HD3 when he lost to Patronis. Some of the local conservative press clearly did not like Rudman, and his influence may be limited.

Additional candidates in the race Cynthia Smith, a Santa Rosa conservative activist involved with the local Republican Party. She has raised $8,000 and loaned another $8,000. Jamie Lee Wells of Santa Rosa, a veteran, has raised $10,000. Wade Merritt of Okaloosa, a businessman, has raised $2000 and loaned another $2000. Joshua Sik of Okaloosa, an Assistant State Attorney, has relied on a loan of $5,000. Rena McQuaig of Okaloosa, a veteran, has loaned her campaign $1,000 and raised little. Lastly, Jamie Uno Tabisz-Smith of Okaloosa, has raised nothing.

This race is more interesting to me to see if the issue of a “Santa Rosa voice” stops Boyles, or if in the modern era that issue of local representation matters less and less. We will see.

That’s it for me!