Issue #226: The Dangerous Precedent being set by Florida's Secretary of State

Its not just about term limits

What was originally a quiet week in Florida politics has erupted with controversy. Yesterday, a debate emerged about candidate qualifying for an upcoming special election. This debate, ostensibly over Florida’s term limits rules, has become the latest issue in the war between Governor Ron DeSantis and the Republican-led legislature. The controversy centers around the Florida Secretary of State refusing to qualify State Representative Debbie Mayfield for an upcoming State Senate special election - arguing term limits do not allow it.

If you aren’t in-the-weeds of politics this might be the first time you even heard there was another special election coming up. While this may seem like fights over paperwork and laws, but I argue is a very disturbing development that could have far-reaching implications in the future.

For that reason, this newsletter is going to cover what is going on and why its a bigger deal than it may seem. Lets dive in.

Upcoming Elections

Those of you who’ve been reading my newsletter for awhile know there are some Congressional special elections going on in Florida. I gave a good deal of coverage to the Republican Primary for the 1st Congressional District race. That seat, which saw Jimmy Patronis win the January 28th Republican Primary, will hold its general election on April 1st.

At the same time as that election, a special for the 6th Congressional District has been ongoing. The frontrunner from day 1 for that seat has been Brevard County State Senator Randy Fine, who secured 80% in the GOP Primary and faces an April 1st General election. Thanks to the state’s resign-to-run law, Fine has to give up his State Senate seat. This means a special election for that district as well.

This State Senate Seat is what the special election qualifying issues revolve around. The initial frontrunner to win this seat was Debbie Mayfield. However, Mayfield’s qualification paperwork was rejected by the Secretary of States office. The reason? It was said she is shirking the state’s term limits law.

To understand this issue, lets talk about Florida’s term limit rules.

Florida’s Term Limits

Florida has had term limits on legislative offices for the last several decades. In 1992, a measure was put on the ballot thank to citizen petitions. The measure would limit lawmakers to eight consecutive years of service in a chamber. The limit only applied to each chamber on its own - meaning an eight-year house member could run for State Senate, and vice-versa. The measure also put term limits on statewide officials and congressional members - though the congressional limits was struck down by the US Supreme Court.

On election day in November, voters EASILY passed the term limits law. Not a single county was below 65%. To say the issue had broad bipartisan support is an understatement.

The amendment set an 8 year countdown clock for many longtime legislative officials. Anyone in office at the time was presumed to have started at 0 years of service, with the eight year clock starting then. The 2000 election would become the final year for many longtime veteran lawmakers.

Over the years, many lawmakers have remained in the legislature for much longer than eight years. Often this involves State House members running for the State Senate. However, we have seen State Senators run for State House. While some will argue this violates the spirit of the law, it rarely generates much controversy at the time. If a lawmaker is liked, these moves cause little issue with election.

So what is Debbie Mayfield doing that the SOS claims violates term limits?

Debbie Mayfield’s Career

Debbie Mayfield’s electoral career began in 2008. That year, she ran for State House District 80, which covered parts of St. Lucie, Indian River, and Brevard. The seat was then held by her husband, Stan Mayfield, who was termed out that year and instead running for Indian River Tax Collector. Tragically, Stan would pass away that September from cancer, but Debbie would win her husband’s office that November. In 2012, redistricting put her district entirely in Indian River and a bit of St. Lucie.

Mayfield would hold this district for eight years and herself faced term limits in 2016. That year, she and Brevard County State Representative Ritch Workman fought an expensive Republican Primary for State Senate District 17. This race was a classic battle of geographies, with Workman strongest in his Brevard community and Mayfield strongest in Indian River. In the end, Mayfield won the primary with 42%.

The district was solidly Republican and with the primary over, Mayfield’s election was a forgone conclusion. After this, she faced no electoral threats. The district was reshaped in 2022 redistricting; leaving Indian River County and becoming entirely centered in Brevard. By this point Mayfield had moved to into the county.

Originally, it was rumored that Mayfield would angle to run for Congressional District 8 whenever longtime Congressman Bill Posey decided to retire. However, a scandalous event unfolded in 2024 that denied Mayfield that opportunity. Posey apparently opted to retire that year, but instead of announcing it, qualified for re-election. Then the final day of qualifying (which should be noted is months before qualifying for state offices), former State Senator Mike Haridopolis, who’d been out of office sense 2012, filed for the seat and qualified. Hours later, post qualifying closing, Posey announced he was retiring and backed Haridopolis. The effort was designed to ensure Haridopolis faced no serious Republican opposition for the seat. Mayfield almost surely would have defeated Haridopolis in a primary.

With Congress not an option, Mayfield looked elsewhere for an office. She opted to run for State House District 32; located in central Brevard County. First Mayfield had to win the Republican Primary for the district. In that contest, she faced former Congressman David Weldon; who last served in office in 2008. Quiet the major fight for a State House seat.

Mayfield argued that in going to the house, she will be a good resource for house freshman on the process. She also argued her recent experience in the legislature would ensure the area had an experienced member to steer resources to the district. Mayfield was boosted by having the backing of Donald Trump. Weldon had the backing of outgoing Rep Thad Altman, Brevard Sheriff Wayne Ivey, retiring Rep Bill Posey, and soon-to-be Congressman Mike Haridopolis. The race saw over $500,000 spent on the contest.

In the end, Mayfield absolutely crushed Weldon and secured 65%.

In the general election, Mayfield easily won the district; taking 64% of the vote as Donald Trump won 59% in the district. Mayfield was the strongest performing State House Republican candidate in the state - with a 9% overperformance vs Donald Trump.

The only State House candidate to perform even stronger than their party’s Presidential nominee was Democrat Allison Tant. I actually just wrote about her race a few days ago. You can read all those details here.

So to recap, Debbie Mayfield’s electoral career was as follows…..

• State House —> State Senate —> State House

This back and forth was noted with eye rolls from term limits backers, but it certainly had precedent. Pasco Republican Mike Fasano served in the State House, then State Senate, and back to State House. He only left the legislature to become Pasco County Tax Collector. Brevard Republican Thad Altman likewise was elected to the State House, State Senate, and back to State House. He was then elected to the Brevard County Commission. Both have been consistently in elected office for decades now; but voters have said they like what they see.

Mayfield was poised to follow this same path of Mike Fasano and Thad Altman, but Randy Fine’s resignation from his newly-won Senate seat changed things.

Special Election & Term Limits

Randy Fine was only elected to the State Senate for a week before Donald Trump picked 6th Congressional District Mike Waltz to be his National Security Advisor. This meant a special election was needed for the 6th District. Trump quickly announced he was endorsing Senator Fine for the post. Fine, like Patronis in CD1, didn’t even live in the district, but that did not matter.

Fine’s Congressional run meant the State Senate seat he’d just won would need to have a special election to be filled. Mayfield, newly elected to HD32, announced in late November that she would run for her old State Senate post. This move angered term limit backers, but Mayfield insisted her experience and influence as a State Senator would aid the region. Fine will continue to serve in the State Senate until the end of March, with the special election winner not taking office until they get through an April 1st Republican Primary and June 10th General Election. If Mayfield were to win that special, she’d serve in the State House from just six months before going back to State Senate.

More than the moves made before, this step was certainty a violation of the “spirit” of the term limits law. However, many assumed, and I believe now, it is a legal loophole. Mayfield is no longer a State Senator, with her term ending in November of 2024. By all precedent, her being elected to State Senate later this year would not be a consecutive term thanks to the multi-month gap.

The key precedent for this claim is the saga of State Representative Jamie Grant. Originally elected in 2010, Grant saw his 2014 re-election become mired in legal drama. That year, Grant faced a Republican Primary challenger and the fight revolved over a write-in candidate and whether the primary should be open or closed. The litigation led to the 2014 election for the seat being invalidated and a special election ordered once legal maters were settled. Grant would easily win that special election in April of 2015.

So why does this matter? Because it was agreed (kinda) at the time that Grant’s vacancy from the chamber, his term ending in November of 2014 and him not retaking office until of April of 2015, RESET the term limits clock on him. This meant he’d be able to serve another 8 years from that period; with his time from 2010-2014 being forgotten. Grant won elections in 2016 and 2018 and was running for re-election 2020 when DeSantis appointed him to his administration. Had term limits applied to Grant from 2010-onward, he should have been able to run in 2018, but he did and won. His primary opponent in 2018 did file a challenge, but the case never went to trial, as best I can tell. Then Secretary of State Ken Detzner stated in a filing that Grant was correct in that he could run again.

“Where, as here, there is a five-month vacancy during the office holder’s period of service, it cannot be said that the office holder will have served for eight consecutive years,”

The Grant and Mayfield stories are similar in that there would be a few-month gap in service - which they both claim reset the term limits rule.

Reporter Jason Garcia lays out the argument about resignations not being a “get out of term limits free” card. The rule does lay out that resignations can be counted as part of the term.

Now here is the question though. As one can read this, the passage is designed to prevent a lawmaker from resigning their seat early and then just running in the next election. For example, if Debbie Mayfield resigned from the State Senate in May of 2024, cutting off her term at 7.5 years, but then running for the regular election later that year and serving 8 more years. THAT we all agree would not be allowed.

However, what is occurring this time is Mayfield served her 8 years, the term ended and Randy Fine was elected to the seat. Thanks to Congressional vacancies, Fine is leaving much earlier than expected, so Mayfield wants the seat back? Is this in violation of the spirit of the law? Of course. Is it for sure not allowed? I don’t think so. This argument, however, is definitely what the current Secretary of State is relying on.

Qualifying Scandal

While there was rumbling that someone would challenge Mayfield’s candidacy for the State Senate, she went ahead and submitted her qualifying paperwork this week. As a result of her running for State Senate, a special is taking place at the same time for the House seat she is giving up. The qualifying deadline for the State Senate was was noon on Tuesday the 4th, with qualifying for the State House being noon on Wednesday the 5th.

Mayfield filed for the State Senate race. However, several suspicious events took place. First was that former Melbourne City Council Tim Thomas, who was initially planned to run for the State House special, instead filed for State Senate. Thomas is an ally of Governor DeSantis; who tried to recruit Thomas to run against Randy Fine in the 2024 State Senate Primary. DeSantis and Fine despise each-other, with Fine pulling his Presidential endorsement of DeSantis and instead backing Trump in 2023. Likewise, Mayfield does not have a good report with DeSantis - having endorsed Trump just before the Iowa caucuses. With DeSantis currently feuding with the legislature over immigration, budgets, and overall just who actually is in charge, the entry of Thomas seemed to indicate DeSantis intended to try and stop Mayfield from winning the State Senate seat.

However, things grew even more suspicious when the Secretary of State site never updated on Tuesday to show who had qualified or not. Normally, the final list of who did or did qualify comes within a couple hours of the noon deadline. Tuesday ended, however, with no final announcement. Speculation ran it was about Mayfield and term limits. Then Wednesday morning, it was announced Mayfield was NOT qualified. The Secretary of State sent this memo.

The memo offers no major explanation, simply citing that term limits prevent Mayfield from running.

This is an unprecedented move from the Secretary of State’s office. As ACLU attorney Nick Warren highlights below, the law states that the role of the qualifying department is simply ministerial. The office is to ensure paperwork is properly filled out, petitions are valid, or the payment fee is correct. Determining if a candidate meets constitutional qualifications to run - whether its term limits, age, or anything else - is NOT their role.

This move comes as the Secretary of State’s office under Cord Byrd, a former State Representative that DeSantis appointed to the post, has become increasingly political. Byrd worked with DeSantis in 2024 to undermine Amendments 3 and 4; working to gin up claims of petition fraud. This is no shock, as Byrd is a far-right Republican who’s wife and is a Q-anon believer and January 6th defender.

The sudden office change by Thomas, the delay in announcing who qualified, and the office going beyond its ministerial functions, all point to a political strike back from Ron DeSantis. This effort comes as DeSantis’ war with the legislature continues and with him threatening to fund primaries to lawmakers who defy him.

Mayfield, for her part, is not backing down. She rejected the idea of running for her House seat again and says she will challenge to decision with the Florida Supreme Court. Mayfield had made it clear she holds DeSantis responsible.

“Today Governor DeSantis used the executive branch to punish me for endorsing Donald J Trump for president. He has weaponized the Department of State just like Joe Biden weaponized the Department of Justice against President Trump. The law is on my side. We will fight for the people of Brevard on this just like I always have.”

The actions of the Secretary of State office are clearly a political move. It is the latest effort under Byrd’s tenure to coordinate with the Governor on election matters. It for sure reflects DeSantis’ weakened political position. Just a few weeks ago I wrote about his declining influence with lawmakers and voters. The fact he was unable to just plot to defeat Mayfield in a primary, instead coordinating to prevent her candidacy, is really a sign of weakness.

This is going to litigation. However, the timeline of this and what it means for the election remains unclear.

Regardless of your personal opinion about Debbie Mayfield, term limits as a whole, or the specific facts of this case, the precedent being set her is very dangerous. Let me explain.

The Dangerous Precedent

The last thing anyone should want in Florida is for the Secretary of State office to be making judgements on if someone meets constitutional requirements to run for office. This issue is something that must be left to the courts. As many have said, it would be up to Mayfield’s opponents to sue if they felt she ran afoul if the law. The SOS is not a legal body able to make a decision based on an untested scenario.

While I’d never want the SOS department to make these determinations, I ESPECIALLY don’t want it being done under Byrd or any crony of the governor. Who knows what reasons they could come up with to deny candidacies. Byrd already spent part of 2024 trying to come up with petition fraud for ballot measures. Who knows, maybe some of your petitions are “suspect.” Maybe you were not detailed enough in your financial disclosures. Maybe you forgot your middle name on the forms. Who knows?!

Such nefarious moves would not be out of the realm possibility under this Governor. We have seen him suspend elected officials on dubious grounds, delay elections for Democratic seats, and spent over $50 million in taxpayer money to fight abortion rights and legalized marijuana in the 2024 campaigns. This governor and his hand-picked secretary of State should be no where near deciding who is allowed to run for office.

The courts or legislature must shut this down immediately. Many of these Republicans have been openly defying the Governor as of late. They should look to stop this now before some of their 2024 qualifying “goes wrong.”