Issue #235: These Florida Specials were not supposed to be Competitive

The 1st and 6th are getting alot of attention

Next Tuesday, on April 1st, Florida is holding two special Congressional elections. The Florida 1st and Florida 6th will be voting to fill the seats left vacant by Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz respectively. Both of these districts are solidly Republican.

While Florida’s Congressional map is an extreme Republican gerrymander, which you can read more about here, that has less barring on these two seats. Both sit in parts of the state that are steadfast Republican and no line drawing would make them moderate districts. In 2024, the 1st voted for Donald Trump by 38 points, while the 6th followed with a 30 point margin for the President.

As a result of their extreme partisan leans, the Republican primaries were considered the only intriguing part of the races.

Both districts saw Trump make quick endorsements. In the 1st, Jimmy Patronis, the CFO of Florida, was hand-picked by Trump to run. Meanwhile, in the 6th, State Senator Randy Fine was hailed by the President as who he wanted for the seat. Neither man lives in the district they are running for, but it caused them no issues in winning their primaries back in January.

After these primaries, no one expected much more news to come out regarding the elections. However, with less than a week to go, more is being said about both races than anyone expected.

Sudden Interest in the 1st and 6th

Both of these districts were supposed to be quiet general elections. While many Democratic activists wished and hoped either district would become competitive, most knew that such red seats could never swing enough to actual go blue. However, the campaigns burst onto national radar when fundraising was announced for all candidates involved.

• In the Florida 1st - Democrat Gay Valimont raised $6.4 million

• In the Florida 6th - Democrat Josh Weil raised $9.3 million

Both candidates saw 75% of their donations come from those contributing $200 or less. Patronis, meanwhile, raised just over $1,000,000; while Fine did not even crack that number.

In addition to these large fundraising figures, both districts have seen Democrats turn out larger shares of their voters than the GOP. The only real way for Democrats to have an upset in either seat would be for a much bluer electorate than the typical November general. As such, Republicans are making quick moves to sure up the districts and not risk any shock upsets. The Democratic National Committee has committed funds to having voter protection forces on the ground. National Democrats have shied from predicting victory, but rather predicting strong showings and pointing out the fact the races are even in the news is a bad sign for the GOP.

“These districts are so Republican there would ordinarily be no reason to believe that the races will be close, but what I can say almost guaranteed is that the Democratic candidate in both of these Florida special elections will significantly overperform” (House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries)

The fact either race is getting attention at all from national forces is a stunning development itself. I had not even initially planned to cover these races closely.

With that, I want to talk about these two races and where things stand as we head into the home stretch.

The Florida 1st District

I have actually written about the 1st Congressional district a few times since the announcement of the special election for this seat. I tracked Jimmy Patronis’ residency issues in a handful of articles leading up to the January primary. Patronis lives in Bay County, which sits solidly outside the district. The issue came up in the Republican Primary and was utilized by Patronis’ main opponent, State Representative Joel Rudman. However, thanks to Patronis dominating in money and with Trump’s endorsement in his pocket, he easily defeating Rudman 66% to 10%; with assorted other candidates taking remaining votes.

With the primary over, Patronis has been presumed a lock for the DEEP RED 1st Congressional district. The district is one of, if not the most, steadily Republican seats in Florida. It has not been competitive since Democratic Congressman Earl Hutto retired in 1994.

Thanks to a combination of rural conservatives, rich coastal communities, and a large veteran population, the district doesn’t become competitive even in landslide Democratic wins. The last Democrat to win the district was in 1992 when Senator Bob Graham won the district with 54% as he secured re-election statewide with 65%. You can read my history of Bob Graham’s elections here to see some maps of that race. In 1998, as Graham secured 63% in another statewide landslide, he did NOT win the 1st Congressional; instead getting just 47% of the vote.

If we look ahead to 2006, when Senator Bill Nelson won a landslide re-election in Florida over Katherine Harris, the 1st Congressional remained solidly GOP, voting for Harris by 10 points. That is how red this seat is.

Today, the only major Democratic base comes southern Escambia county; namely the areas around Pensacola. The historic Florida city, home to the first territorial legislature of Florida, backed Kamala Harris by 2%. Unfortunately for Democrats, the city only made up 7% of the vote in the district. After leaving Pensacola, Democratic votes are few and far between.

In 2024, as Matt Gaetz faced increasing scrutiny for the fact he is a sexual degenerate that pays 17 year olds for sex, he still easily secured re-election. His 66% of the vote was lower than Trump’s 68%, but it still far from any potential Democratic upset. The sex scandal torpedoed Gaetz’s chance to be Trump’s Attorney General and also saw him leave Congress as a result. Hence triggering this special election.

Despite being such a steadfast GOP seat, Democrat Gay Valimont has run an aggressive and active campaign. In addition to the $6.4 million raised, Valimont has worked to galvanize Democratic turnout in the district and hit Patronis hard in ads.

Ryan Wiggins, a former Republican who worked with former Congressman Jeff Miller, stated about Valimont’s efforts

“She's done a great job with ads. There's no question about it, and she has required Jimmy Patronis to spend money in this district, which is absolutely shocking in a general (election).”

Arguably Patronis is vulnerable on property insurance issues and his lack of district residency. Patronis is less controversial than Gaetz, but also not the most inspiring candidate. The GOP nominee is running ads that, rather than focusing on himself, attack Valimont. His “They Hate Us” ad tries to gin up fears of the “radical left.” Patronis, in essence, is not running on his own quality, but rather relying on “the opposition hates you.” Not the most inspiring message.

Valimont is being widely praised for the aggressive campaign. The biggest issue is just how steadfastly Republican the district is. As of Thursday morning, the Democrats of the district have turned out their voters in a much higher number; 16% to the GOP’s 9%. However, that turnout gap still results in a GOP lead in votes cast.

The current GOP lead in votes cast; hovering around 17%, is still far lower than the 39% it was back in November of 2024. Even assuming the GOP improves its turnout over the next week, the likelihood they come near that 39% lead is unlikely. That said, even the current lead is enough to ensure a Patronis victory.

The 1st district, as I see it, is safe to go to Patronis. What Democrats are looking for here is how much they can close that massive gap from 2024. Again, the fact this race is even being discussed at all is stunning.

What has become much more focused on, however, is the 6th Congressional district.

The Florida 6th District

On the east coast of Florida lies the 6th Congressional District, which like the 1st is a heavily GOP seat. Backing Trump by 30 points, the district only has a handful of Democratic voting blocks. Daytona Beach itself is the biggest source of Democratic votes.

This version of the 6th district has long been solidly to the right of the state as a whole, even back in the days when Democrats did much better in Volusia and Flagler counties. Both of those working-class counties went to Obama in 2008, but narrowly went against him four years later. With Trump and his appeal with working-class whites, both counties swung heavily to the GOP. However, even if those counties remained blue, the district would still be a tough haul for Democrats, as Putnam, Lake, and Marion have only gotten redder as well. The St. Johns has always been solidly GOP.

The full breakdown of major elections in the 6th can be seen below.

Since 2012, only one Democrat has won the modern 6th Congressional district; Bill Nelson. In 2012, as Nelson bested Connie Mack by 12 points statewide, he carried the 6th by 3.5%.

Nelson, who had strong appeal with working class and rural voters, managed to take the 6th, but it was still notably 9 points to the right of his statewide margin. However, even if Bill Nelson himself ran today, he’d face trouble in the district. In 2018, as he lost-reelection to Rick Scott by just 10,000 votes statewide, he lost the 6th by 20 points.

Despite being a solid GOP seat, this race has garnered much more heartburn for Republicans than the 1st has. Randy Fine, who faced no real challengers in the January primary, has run a weak campaign and is an especially abrasive figure. A former casino executive, Fine was elected to the state house in 2016 and subsequently to the State Senate in 2024 for Brevard County. Like Patronis, he doesn’t live in the district. I covered many of his controversies in my 2024 Primary Preview article (go to Senate 17 section). He is known to use his power in the legislature to threaten businesses and organization. He’s been dubbed “The Bully of Brevard.”

In addition to be a vehement bigot against the LGBT community, Fine engages in outright genocidal rhetoric against Muslim and Arab individuals. Well before the Gaza war even began, when once confronted on twitter about a dead Palestinian child, Fine said “I don’t personally feel bad when human shields are killed,”. Since the Gaza war began, Fine has routinely praised the mass-death of civilians in the conflict - all while tweeting about #MuslimProblem. Far more of his behavior is documented here. The sad irony is that Fine, who is Jewish, has had to deal with legit anti-Semitic white supremacists in his Brevard County district. However, he treats Muslim people with the same inhumanity that he is attacked with by those who wave NAZI flags.

Fine is so nasty that he is largely despised by the Florida Republican establishment. Ron DeSantis even tried to find a primary challenger to Fine in 2024; but the Trump team put the stop to such efforts. There is no love-loss between the two men, with DeSantis taking a clear shot at Fine just this week.

“Regardless of the outcome in that, it’s going to be a way underperformance from what I won that district by in 2022 (as a candidate for re-election as Governor) and what the President won it by in November. They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Donald Trump. That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of the specific candidate running in that race,”

Many Republican consultants have expressed frustration with the fact Fine did not go on TV until just recently, while Weil has been on TV for weeks. Florida Republicans have intimated how much they dislike Fine, with this quote really standing out from an anonymous Republican in Florida

“There would be no tears shed for Fine if he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory”

Fine does benefit from that fact that Josh Weil himself is not an especially strong candidate. Weil has been under scrutiny for past legal troubles and the fact he is apparently drawing a salary from his own campaign. The broad spending of the Weil campaign is concerning to many Democrats, which include spending over $50,000 on a high-end Air BNB for a campaign office and an insane amount of money going to consultants. Of course, despite Weil’s issues, Fine has managed to maintain being the bigger controversy in the race. A perfect example was this story below.

Back in early March, a canvasser for the Weil campaign, albeit hired by a third-party contractor, was arrested for using a stolen bike to deliver literature. This is a scandal campaigns are eager to avoid. Fine, however, managed to take it to the extreme by demanding the Weil himself be charged; despite Weil not even directly hiring the man nor would have hiring him made him liable for charges. This has been part of Fine’s effort to push Weil as a dangerous person. Granted Weil’s own past don’t help matters.

Fine, fitting with his anti-Muslim bigotry, has attacked Weil for converting to Islam later in life. Weil’s backstory points to a mix of Christian and Muslim religious experiences, and he himself expresses a lack of devotion to any faith right now. This has not stopped Fine from portraying Weil as some sort of Islamic terrorist; which granted Fine probably thinks every Muslim person is. In a press conference, Fine even referred to Weil as “Jihad Josh” and attacked Weil for being bisexual - just because.

Let us be clear, Randy Fine is no better than someone waving a NAZI flag around. He is an absolutely hateful and deranged individual. That is why even most Republicans (hardly the bedrock of tolerance) despise him.

As Randy Fine kicks and screams about his opponent, the voting in the district remains close. Democratic turnout is surpassing the GOP; sitting at 20% to the 12% for Republicans. As a result, the vote cast is much closer, just 5 points to the GOP.

Republicans are far more concerned with the 6th Congressional district than they are with the 1st. Fine is seen as vulnerable. One poll had Fine up by just 4 points; and that is with an electorate that will be GOP +23, not the current +5 (and I do expect the electorate to get redder). The poll, which you can see here, has Weil winning current votes cast, with Fine expected to win the remaining vote.

Fine is still, sadly, more likely than not to win. If I had to peg it, I’d say 95% likely to win. A 30 point Trump seat is hard to flip and would require the electorate to not explode in GOP vote leads over the next several days. I do expect the electorate to get redder, and Fine NEEDS it to. That said, when all is said and done, Fine will prove to be a very weak candidate who has caused his party a great deal of heartburn.

Final Thoughts

The results in these districts, whatever they end up being, will have important implications in narratives going forward. While most focus on the binary of Win or Lose, in deep partisan seats like this, shifts in margin and looks at enthusiasm are important for gleaming where the electorate is. Special elections are not perfect, and sometimes very bad, predictors for regular elections. However, Democrats will be able to use strong performances to continue fundraising and building momentum for future races.

What is for sure, regardless of the outcome, is that the fact I am writing this article at all shows that the GOP is already in a bad shape. They barely won the 2024 election and have overplayed their hand. Their leader is unpopular, their policies are unpopular, and their candidates are suffering as a result.