Issue #224: Florida 1st Preview: Jimmy Patronis' Lucky Break
Election timing benefits a weak frontrunner
Its election time in Florida!
Tomorrow is the Republican Primary for two Congressional District special elections in Florida; the 1st and the 6th. Both districts are solid republican seats where the Republican Primary is the main event. The race for the 6th Congressional, which is based around Daytona Beach, is an entirely sleepy affair. State Senator Randy Fine a lock to crush two no-name and under-funded opponents in that primary. I will dedicate a different post to Randy Fine as the general election approaches.
Today the main focus is the fight for the 1st Congressional district - which at least has a semi-interesting primary. The district, based in Northwest Florida, is a solid Republican district, giving Trump 68% of the vote.
This deep red seat is being vacated by Matt Gaetz, who saw his bid for US Attorney General collapse amid a wave of sexual scandals - namely paying for sex from a 17 year old girl. The creep opted to just leave Congress, but he is still eager to get back into the electoral game. I’ll be talking about Gaetz later this year. In the meantime, lets look forward at the race to replace the disgraced former Congressman in Northwest Florida.
A Crowded Republican Primary
From the outset, Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, has been the frontrunner for this district. Patronis has broad institutional support and carries the coveted Donald Trump endorsement. As a result, he’s raised by far the most money, bringing in over $900,000 in a short timeline. The Trump endorsement, however, did not stop several other candidates from lining up to face him. These are…
Joel Rudman (Santa Rosa County) - Doctor and Current State Representative for Florida House District 3. Raised $82,000 and loaned another $30,000.
Gene Valentino (Escambia County) - Former County Commissioner for Southern Escambia County. Raised $75,000 but also loaned his campaign another $350,000.
Michael Dylan Thompson (Escambia County) - Young conservative activists. Would be first Gen-Z Republican member of Congress. Raised $39,000.
Aaron Dimmock (Escambia County) - Veteran and candidate against Gaetz in 2024. Raised $33,000
Jeff Peacock (Santa Rosa County) - A Republican operative that has worked for FreedomWorks and for Lee Zeldin’s 2022 NY Governor campaign. Raised $19,000.
Kevin Gaffney (Walton County) - Teacher at Rocky Bayou Christian School and former Government employee. Raised $12,000.
Greg Merk (Escambia County) - Ran for State House in 2018; losing the Republican Primary for HD2 to now State Rep Alex Andrade with 40%. He also primaried Matt Gaetz in 2022 but only got 5%. No fundraising reported.
John Mills (Santa Rosa County) - Ran against State Senator Doug Bloxom in the 2022 Republican Primary; getting just 24%. Has raised just $200
Jeff Mancy (Okaloosa County). Little known and no fundraising reported
A few of these candidates are your typical no-shot filings; but there are some notable names here. So why does Patronis, who has the clear backing of Trump, still have so many candidates filed against him?
A Weak Frontrunner
While Patronis remains a firm frontrunner, his big issue is his lack of residency in the District. He hails from Bay County, the area he once represented in the legislature. While he is not legally required to live in the district, such an issue can become a political liability. He has been his especially hard on this by Joel Rudman, the only elected official within the district challenging Patronis.
Patronis generated negative press for himself when he tried to claim that the reason his Bay County home wasn’t in the district was due to gerrymandering. He claimed that in order to maintain the Republican gerrymander of the maps, such residential sacrifices were needed. This infuriated Republicans, who are in a lawsuit over the Congressional map right now. However, the gerrymandering issues are in entirely different parts of Florida. No district layout, partisan or not, would have led to Bay being in the 1st district. I delved into all that nonsense in this piece below.
Such a story could draw more attention to the residency issues for Patronis. However, its only garnered a bit of headlines.
Patronis benefits greatly from the short timeline of the special election. The race was arranged in November, just as Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday’s were underway. A special primary for Congress is the last thing on many voters minds. Candidates without strong financial backing would struggle to mount an efficient grassroots campaign. This was further impacted by the record snow that came through the district the week of the 20th. A one-in-a-generation winter storm dumped snow and ice across western North Florida - making it even east of Tallahassee. Much of the 1st congressional district was effectively snowed in for days.
The short special election time benefits Patronis - and it also stands in stark contrast to the extended time that DeSantis left the deep-blue 20th Congressional district vacant back in 2021.
Patronis is well positioned by the sheer number of opponents as well. Even if he fell below 50%, he could easily find himself in a Lauren Boebert situation. Back in 2024, Boebert, after almost losing her seat in 2022; switched districts; going from the western 3rd, which only leaned Republican, to the eastern 4th, which is solidly Republican. The move, along with some scandals - *cough* Beetlejuice *cough* - led to Boebert having a weak performance. She only won the primary with 44% - but benefitted from a split field.
Patronis could easily fall under 50% but still win the election handedly. Of course its not even clear that will happen. He’s been able to dominate their airwaves and has sent out the most mail. One mailer of his lays out the Trump endorsement front and center.
Patronis remains the firm frontrunner. However, if he were to fall, who would it be too?
Who Else to Watch
There is only a few candidates among this list that can even claim an outside shot at knocking Patronis off. Arguably the strongest is State Representative Joel Rudman. A doctor by trade, Rudman ran for State House in 2022. His decision to run was driven by his clashes with Medical Boards over COVID mitigation practices. He won the Republican Primary for the HD3 with 62% of the vote. He defeated Mariya Calkins, a former legislative staffer who had the backing of Matt Gaetz.
Rudman is the only candidate to win a Republican primary within the 1st Congressional district in over a decade. He has been aggressive in attacking Patronis and frames himself as more of an anti-establishment outsider. He was the lone state rep to remain in the race when Patronis jumped in, arguing he would not let the primary become a coronation.
Another candidate to watch is Aaron Dimmock. The Navy veteran challenged Matt Gaetz in the 2024 Republican Primary. He raised $350,000 and had hundreds of thousands more spent on his behalf. This money all came from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who sought to punish Gaetz for leading to push to oust him from the speaker’s chair. The efforts were for naught, as Dimmock only secured 27% of the vote.
Dimmock is not a strong candidate, with questions about his residency dogging his campaign. He lives in Pensacola but is also director of the Missouri Leadership Academy and traverses there back and forth as needed. Gaetz hit Dimmock hard on residency and claimed he was a secret Democrat. Overall, it is also likely a chunk of his votes were simply anti-Gaetz and not pro-him. I would not be shocked if Dimmock falls below the 27%, even by quiet a bit. The question though is if his true supporters disproportionally show up. He did, after all, have perhaps $1,000,000 spent on him last year; so its very likely some folks have come to regard him positively. If they show up in a low turnout special, it may be a shocker. Though that remains less likely than a flat out collapse in support.
Gene Valentino has also emerged as a candidate to watch largely thanks to his self-funding. Valentino was a county commission in Escambia County; but lost his 2014 primary re-election to Doug Underhill. This loss came amid feud with Escambia Sheriff over budget issues. Valentino lost his primary 62% - 38%. That fact alone would normally make it so that Valentino is not a serious candidate. However, the independently-wealthy Valentino is running as an aggressive MAGA campaign; supporting hardline immigration policies and abolishing income taxes. He has a right-wing podcast and has been a Newsmax contributor. He maintains a solid number of Escambia endorsements as well. While the primary loss is bad; it is only in one part of the county of Escambia and since then the district has added many new reliable republican voters.
A final note is for Greg Merk. I’m only mentioning him because my family, who reside in Pensacola, got this piece from his campaign. That mailer is just the wackiest nonsense.
What is notable though is Merk has not filed campaign finance reports yet. I have no idea how much he has raised, though I doubt is alot. As noted earlier, Merk last ran for Congress in 2022, and got just 5%.
Final Thoughts
Overall I think its clear Patronis remains the easy favorite. However, if he were to get a close call, or get a shock upset, its likely from either Rudman, Valentino, or Dimmock. Special elections with low turnout can produce odd results, but that said Patronis is the drivers seat. Patronis is aided by the timing of this election, but he remains a weak frontrunner. Lucky for him, it may just not matter in the end.
If he especially underperforms, however, it could give other local officials a thought about making a run when Patronis goes before Republican primary voters again in August of next year. More time and more attention are not good for Patronis. This election calendar was exactly what he needed.