Issue #227: The 2024 Results by Florida State Senate District & How 2026 Looks

A narrow map next year

Over a month ago, I posted precinct maps for Florida’s Statewide elections. Both President and US Senate were GOP landslides in the state.

You can see the full slate of precinct maps in this article.

I have only begun to dig into the results in Florida. I am working on a detailed look at turnout in Florida. In addition, I have published how the 2024 results broke down by Florida State House District.

This article will break down the 2024 results by Florida State Senate District, as well as taking a look at how things may look in the battle for the Florida State Senate in 2026.

Lets dive in.

How the Senate Districts Voted

This shouldn’t be a surprise, but with Florida going much redder in 2024 several Biden districts went to Trump. Donald Trump won 29 districts while Harris took just 11. This was down from the Biden 16 seats in 2020. Check that link for older election maps - the 2024 vote map is below.

The five seats that backed Biden and went to Trump this time were: 3, 10, 14, 37, and 38.

Only one seat split its tickets - with SD37 backing Trump but also backing Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate over Rick Scott. This links it in with House District 101; covering similar areas, being the lone Trump/Powell house seat.

The swing from 2020 to 2024 can be seen below. All districts swung to the right, but the Hispanic-heavy districts had by far the biggest swings.

Senate District 4, located in Nassau and parts of Jacksonville, had the smallest swing with just 3.3%. This also matches with state house, as HD15 in the same area was the lone seat to narrowly trend left.

I have even more past performances, which you can see below.

You can view a detailed Google Doc here with current and past performances by the State Senate Districts

That doc has results dating back from 2024 to 2012; showing how radically many of these districts have trended.

How 2024 Candidates Performed

Like many states in America, only a half of Florida’s State Senate districts are up each election. In 2024, the batch of districts being contested were largely heavily Democratic or heavily Republican, leaving only a few truly contested races. Only 3 races of note need to be discussed: SD3, SD25, and SD37.

I covered the State Senate battle in this article from just days before final voting took place. The big contest was Senate District 3; covering the Florida panhandle. The race generated over $15,000,000 in spending, with Republicans eager to defend Senator Corey Simon against Democratic attorney Daryl Parks. The seat had backed Biden by 3 points in 2020. However, with the swings in the state, the district backed Trump by 4. Thanks to the mountain of money spent by Republicans, Parks was buried in negative advertising and wound up underperforming Harris by more than any other Democratic candidate. The full DEM candidate over/under versus Harris can be seen below. Only TWO seats saw an over/under higher than 5%.

The Senate 3 race is going to be covered in more detail in a future article. Parks was a strong candidate and a very strong campaign was run. It was the major GOP financial advantage, which framed Parks negatively quick, that allowed such a victory. The Parks burial in money highlights a core problem left-wing and Democratic groups have that will shape looking ahead at 2026. So keep that in mind.

Meanwhile, down in Orlando, the battle for State Senate District 25 was not meant to be a close contest. This Biden +18 seat is a Hispanic-Majority district with a large Puerto Rican population. However, with Harris only winning the seat by around 2.7%, Democratic candidate Kristen Arrington won by just 3% - FAR CLOSER than anyone expected.

This race is notable in that Arrington is white, having defeated Hispanic candidate Carmen Torres in the August Primary. However, Arrington won Hispanic voters in the primary and general. She did not overperform in the area like Puerto Rican Congressman Darren Soto did (click here to see more on that race) - but she also did not underperform the top of the ticket. I do not believe Arrington being white was a major hinderance for her based on the context of the race. That said, this race, both the primary and general, I plan to dedicate an article too down the line on the topic of race and redistricting.

Finally, by far the biggest overperformer of the cycle was Democratic State Senator Jason Pizzo. His SD37; which has a large Jewish population, growing Hispanic population, and batch of Republican-heavy upper-income coastal towns, went from Biden +13% to voting for Trump by 1.3%. It was also the seat to split its ticket and vote Democratic for US Senate. Senator Pizzo won his re-election by 16 points over Imtiaz Mohammad; a massive overperformance.

Pizzo benefitted from having a weak opponent. Mohammad is a perennial candidate who has run as a Democrat in past State House races in both Broward and Miami-Dade. He became a Republican and challenged Pizzo, the only Republican to file. He raised only $5,000 and Republicans gave him no help. Pizzo, meanwhile, did not sit on his hands and was aggressive in his campaign; especially working to keep Jewish voters in his camp. Jewish voters in South Florida, namely Orthodox and those with Hispanic heritage, swung heavily to the right. Pizzo, however, held these communities; and those are the biggest sources of his overperformance.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Heading into 2026, these are the State Senate Districts that will be contested. There is also a possible special election I will discuss in a minute. Right now, all Trump seats have a Republican member and all Harris seats have a Democratic member.

Democrats have no strong pickup opportunities. The closest district not in their control is Senate District 10; which is based in Seminole County and part of Orange. This district went from backing Biden by 4.5% to backing Trump by 1.6%.

While on paper this would be a prime target; especially if Trump popularity declines; the issue is the cost of the race. Democrats will have some defenses, which I’ll get into in a second. Incumbent Republican Jason Brodeur will have a great deal of financial support from his own coffers and from Republican money. The issue with Senate 3; where the better-funded FL GOP can just pour cash into a district, is the major problem. Any Democratic candidate, no matter their strength on paper or campaign plan, can expect to be buried in millions of negative advertising dollars that simply cannot be matched. This vicious negative cycle, with the GOP flushed with cash thanks to long ruling the state, cannot be easily overcome.

The biggest issue for SD10 pickup is that Democrats are already aware Republicans are eying a possible effort into Senate District 26. This southern Palm Beach district went from backing Biden by 17% to backing Harris by just under 6%. The seat will be open, with Incumbent Lori Berman termed out.

This seat is a mix of suburbs, farm lands, urban centers, and a sizeable Jewish community. It stretches from Lake Okeechobee to Boca Raton. Already two Democrats have filed. Former State Representative David Silvers and current Boca Raton Vice Mayor Yvette Drucker are likely to have an heated primary. Former Republican State Representative Rick Roth, who was termed out of office in 2024, is filed to run for the seat but not been aggressively campaigning yet. How much Republicans push for the district remains to be seen, but they have their eye on it. As such, Democrats are focused on warding off an expensive defense in this district. If this seat become a major battleground, it for sure will suck money away from effort to flip SD10.

In addition, there is entirely a possibility than Senate 37; the home of Jason Pizzo’s overperformance, will be up again in 2026. Pizzo is considering a run for Governor, and his move would trigger resign-to-run, meaning he must give his seat up. The special election for the seat would be scheduled for the regular 2026 midterm.

The likely Democratic frontrunner for the district is former State Senator Lauren Book. Republicans may run State Rep Hillary Cassel, who recently flipped to the Republican Party. Even if not, any candidate for the GOP can be guaranteed to have all the financial backing they will need. This race would FOR SURE be a major battleground if it opens up.

So as we look ahead to 2026, we see two possible Democratic defenses and one Republican defense. Unless the things really bottom out for Republicans on a national level, Florida Democrats are likely in a state of defense of the State Senate - with State House taking the main focus. We will see how that changes or remains the same over the next year.

In the meantime, however, there is a special state senate special election happening in a few months. Its a very red seat, but there is already major drama and scandal around the candidate filings - with a candidate’s paperwork rejected for dubious reasons.

Issue #226: The Dangerous Precedent being set by Florida's Secretary of State

Be sure to give that a read if you haven’t already. The actions by the Florida Secretary of State should be raising alarm bells for anyone looking to file next year.