Issue #42: Partisan Data on the New Legislative Maps

Putting all this in one dedicated post

Since Florida’s legislative maps have been approved by the Florida Supreme Court, I wanted to go ahead and create a one-stop-shop location for the partisan info on these districts. I have pulled the partisan reports from the Florida Redistricting website. I am included the breakdown for every D v R election in Florida from 2012-2020 for both the State House and State Senate districts. I have created handy google sheets, linked below.

Google Doc of House Partisan Data

Google Doc of Senate Partisan Data

Both maps give Republicans a clear advantage. The Senate map is on the whole more balanced, though neither are extreme gerrymanders. I’d argue certain regions have more “questionable” lines than others. However, that is an article for another time. I’ll likely do a detailed partisan analysis of everything once the Congressional process is done.

Here is the Presidential election by state house district.

And here is the Presidential election by State Senate District.

For those who don’t know, all seats will be up this year. In the case of the state senate, anyone with an odd number will be running for a two year term, and then subject to another election in 2024 - then running for a four year term. All even-numbered seats will be up again in 2026.

Always remember that the Presidential figures do not automatically mean one party has an advantage. Many seats are very close, and Republicans often outperform the top of the ticket thanks to their major financial advantages. In the case of extremely close districts, its worth remembering these figures are estimates. Many precincts are split by the new lines; and the method for reconciling these splits is varied and can never be perfect. In seats like SD36, you can wind up with narrow Biden wins (like what DRA comes up with) - while the legislature data says Trump narrowly won it. In both instances, the margin is a couple hundred votes. It would be far to say anything within 0.5% is really just a tie.

Margins matter, don’t just focus on the “x number for Biden, x number for Trump”

More partisan analysis to come. I’ll work on 2022 race ratings later in the fall; once we see who is running where and how the national trends look.