Issue #209: The Final Weekend of Florida Early Voting

Where things stand in the final days

As Florida voters head into the weekend, over 7.2 million ballot have been cast for Tuesday’s general election. Voting has continued at a steady pace for the last two weeks. As things currently stand, turnout is 52% in Florida - with the Republicans maintaining an 800,000 vote lead.

Republicans have kept a solid lead thanks to a strong showing with in-person early voting. Democrats maintain a modest lead in vote by mail, which is winding down.

While the vote cast lead may make one think Democrats are having a massive 2022-style turnout collapse, this is actually not the case. Right now, Democratic turnout is 4% below Republicans. In 2022, it was over 14%. In 2020, it was around 7%. Outside of some rural counties… and Miami-Dade… Republican turnout leads over Democrats is fairly modest.

The big problem for Florida Democrats is the lack of voter registration. The GOP maintains a 8% lead in registered voters.

As a result, even if turnout were even, the vote-cast lead would be GOP +8. The only way Democrats would be able to lead in votes is if their turnout was higher than Republicans. This does not happen - even in the Obama era.

Tomorrow I will have a big piece on voter registration in Florida. The situation is not the fault of the modern Florida Democratic Party. It is a reflection of the lack of outside resources, the fact the old party was in shambles after 2022, and the GOP voter registration suppression efforts. Stay tuned for that tomorrow.

Heading into the Weekend

We have a couple days of in-person early voting left before election day. Republicans started with a commanding 2-1 lead in early voting when it began on October 21st. As time as gone on, early voting has become less Republican. An initial vote that was heavily white and older has begun to turn more diverse and younger as the days went on.

The weekend, if history holds true, will be less Republican than the last few days. See my last early voting blog for more there.

How Saturday (today) goes remains to be seen. However, it is widely expected Sunday will be a Democratic day. This is because only a select batch of counties have opted to do early voting on the last Sunday (which is an optional day). Those counties can be seen below.

You can see the full details of county voting times here.

With this Sunday voting, many “Souls to the Polls” events will be taking place. If you know anything about Florida campaigns, you know about these events. Across Florida, many Black civic organizations and churches push for voting after Sunday church. Some areas have big event gatherings. In other places its a simple tradition: go to church, go vote, grab some lunch. The tradition is a longstanding process at this point.

Who Hasn’t Voted?

Even with the 7,000,000+ ballots cast, there are nearly as many voters left who could cast ballots. We won’t see that much, but we are for sure going to see several million more. Among those pool, the GOP has a 4% lead. This lead is massive with voters who have not missed any of the last 3 elections. However, Democrats have a lead with 2/3 and 1/3 voters.

This dynamic means Republicans have plenty more super voters to flood the zone with. This is good for them statewide, thought where these voters are varies by region. I’ll delve into this more in a second as we discuss local races of note.

Right now the biggest issue for Florida Democrats is bad turnout among Hispanic voters. The GOP has a 10% lead with Hispanic ballots cast, giving them a 8% lead in vote cast despite registration being nearly even.

However, Democrats can fix this gap to some degree. Looking at Hispanics that have not voted yet, there is near parity with the super-reliable 3/3 voters. However, Democrats have a solid lead with the next rungs of voters. They need to be turning out these voters in the coming days.

We will see how these efforts go!

Local Races and Turnout

Much of the focus has been on Florida statewide numbers as folks look at the US Senate and Presidential contests. Florida has remained Likely Republican, and the registration gap is a big reason for this. For the Democrats to win, it will require an unprecedented ticket splitting from suburban Republicans. If that happens here, its happening everywhere. In other words, don’t expect Harris to win Florida unless she is taking every other swing state by a solid and easy margin. I still do have us pegged as Likely Republican. I said as much in my 2020 retrospective earlier this week.

However, the statewide democratic handicap is not the same across many local areas; those with major contested races. For example, Hillsborough County is the site of the highly contentious State Attorney race. I covered this last year, but the Democratic State Attorney, Andrew Warren, was removed by Governor DeSantis because he opposed the state’s abortion ban and pledged to use discretion in protecting women. Warren is now running to get his job back.

If we look at Hillsborough, we see a narrow GOP lead in turnout and vote cast. However, there are more remaining Democrats than there are Republicans.

For Hillsborough Democrats, the goal is to get those 2/3s out as much as possible. Independents will be the kingmakers here either way, but its important for Democrats to keep the gap as close as possible. A small GOP lead would not mean doom for Warren or other countywide Democrats. The 2022 disasters were caused by MASSIVE gaps. I will have a more detailed look at 2022 vs today in a Tuesday morning article.

Down in Miami-Dade, Republicans hold a solid 30,000 vote cast lead. This has been a major source of heartburn for Democrats. Statewide it matters, but this also effects several countywide races and legislative seats. However, in the remaining vote to be cast, Democrats have a chance.

The Democrats have many more remaining voters, from 3 of 3s and down, that they need to turn out. All hands are on deck down there. And listen, this can mean one of two things - either Dade will just have bad lopsided turnout - or this weekend and election day will be much bluer than the past. The 3/3 and 2/3 voters are very likely to make their presence felt. And Miami-Dade in person has grown less Republican with time the last two weeks. So we will see.

Meanwhile, Florida Democrats are fighting to break the Republican super-majority in the house. As such, I am tracking turnout in several races that are being contested to some degree or another. Most districts remain close in ballots cast, with some likely to get more blue or red with remaining voters.

You can see how a seat like HD37 is GOP +1.7 but has a remaining super vote that is DEM +1.7. So this could come out with parity - but with independents that lean solidly left: making this a likely democratic flip. A seat like HD9, a longshot GOP target that I covered here, remains solidly blue and its remaining vote will be blue, meaning this is off the board for Republicans. Meanwhile the early voting and remaining vote data in HD22, a longshot Democratic pickup, appears to be in GOP hands most likely.

Some seats, like HD45, remain Republican leaning, but still have a good chance of going Democratic. I’ll cover this in my house ratings out Monday - but there we have an NPA population that leans left, suburban Republicans that have ticket-splitted before, and a flawed incumbent Republican. In other words, party spread isn’t the only factor.

Finally, in a seat like HD47, which is held by Republicans thanks to 2022’s turnout debacle, the Democratic pace is much stronger this time, leading to a much bluer electorate. That means this Biden +12 seat should slide right back into Democratic hands. I’ll be ranking this as a pickup in Monday’ article on the house races.

So while statewide data is important, there are many many local races of note that regional turnout will be effecting. I am tracking many of these races. Democratic turnout places like Palm Beach are strong enough to likely mean Democrats will take back a County Commission seat that will give them the majority on the board again. I previewed that race here.

There are many races of note across Florida that will show Democratic signs of life. As I track statewide turnout, I am also keeping a close eye on these local races.

Check back tomorrow for a look at voter registration in Florida.