Issue #201: Republicans Light Money on Fire in House District 9
Spencer Brass is also a bad candidate
If you have been in Tallahassee the last few weeks, there is a 100% guarantee that you have seen one of many “SPENCER BRASS FOR STATE HOUSE” big barn signs. Brass is a young Republican candidate running against State House 9 Democratic Incumbent Allison Tant. Despite only entering the race in June, his campaign has quickly kicked into high gear. Indeed it feels like election season in the Florida capital.
However, while the Tallahassee area is home to several contests that are likely to be very close - from a major State Senate contest down to a majority-deciding City Council runoff - the state house does not fit this category. While Florida Republicans and Brass insist they have a shot at at flipping the 9th district, I am going to talk about why they are just lighting their money on fire.
The Current 9th State House District
Back in 2022, as voters in the 9th were preparing for a contested general election, I wrote about the history of this seat; which has long been anchored out of the white suburbs of Tallahassee and Leon County. I discussed previous efforts by Republicans to take this seat; which has always leaned Democratic but was just swingy enough for Republicans to make several failed bids. I dubbed the seat the GOP’s “Fool’s Gold.” I recommend reading my past issue for more background on the 9th. However, for the dynamics of the present district, all will be covered here.
Now as I said in my initial piece, there is an important conflict to address here. I’ve known and been friends with Allison Tant for 12 years. I am not an unbiased author. However, I’d like to think my rigorous data work shows I don’t fudge facts.
Right now, Allison Tant is finishing her 2nd term as a House member. She was originally elected to the 9th in 2020; winning the Leon-based seat by 15.6%. Tant’s win against Jim Kallinger, who was actually a former State Representative from Orlando, was 1% better than Joe Biden’s win in the seat that same day. I have details and maps on her 2020 win in my “Fools Gold” article.
Redistricting brought one potential hiccup; as the 9th was underpopulated and would need to expand. In late 2021 and early 2022, an effort emerged to try and gerrymander the Tallahassee community. One of the state house drafts split the city between three districts; splitting up blue suburbs and pairing them with rural counties. I wrote much more about this drama here. This plan was widely believed to be the desired map of then Leon GOP Chairman Evan Power; who now serves as Florida Republican Chair. The goal was to give him a GOP-leaning seat to run for. However, the rural counties all balked at this plan, wanting to be united under one seat. In the end, the gerrymander effort was abandoned.
The final map that passed did what I had projected to be a possibility - having a 9th that went from Leon County and over into Jefferson and Madison Counties. This allowed the district to meet the population figures needed while also connecting communities at least joined by major roads. The new version of the 9th includes Jefferson County North of State Road 27, which covers most of the county’s population, and all of Madison County. While the changes to the district are massive in terms of land size, in terms of population, 81% of the district’s residents fell under the old 9th as well.
The population of the district, broken down by county, is as follows….
Leon: 152,134 people - 83.2% of population
Jefferson: 12,751 people - 7.0% of population
Madison: 17,968 - 9.8% of population
So what did the changes mean for the partisan leaning of the seat? Well, while both Jefferson and Madison voted for Donald Trump in 2020, the Leon portion was firmly Democratic. As such, this new version of the 9th still backed Joe Biden by 9.5%.
Joe Biden won the Leon portion of the seat by 13 points, more than enough to offset a 5 point loss in Jefferson and 19 point loss in Madison. With so much of the district in Leon, its swings matter most. The heavily-blue portions of Leon are a mix of the Florida State University system and the suburbs made up of state and school employees. Only the rural outskirts and high-income northern exurbs are solidly Republican in Leon.
To highlight the centrality of Leon, below is how the last four Presidential elections went in the district by county. Note that from 2012 to 2020, the DEM margin in Leon increased each time, dragging the whole district to the left despite the rural counties swinging right.
It is notable that Barack Obama, the last Democrat to carry Florida in a Presidential contest, won the 9th by less than Clinton or Biden. Obama did better in several of the rural counties, but the Leon suburbs were not yet as blue. In fact, between 2008 and 2012, Romney had managed to claw back many of the suburban voters. However, increasing diversity in the suburbs and the toxic effect of the MAGA movement have led to former McCain/Romney areas to now be double-digits for Democratic candidates. In Southwood, for example, the former GOP suburb went from voting McCain in 2008 to voting for Biden by 17% in 2020.
While Republicans have made major gains in the rural areas, there is plenty of blue in Jefferson and Madison; namely from Black voters. In Jefferson’s portion of the district, 33% of the Voting-Age Population is Black; while its 38% in Madison county. Leon’s portion, meanwhile, is only around 16% BVAP. The large number of rural Black voters have kept Democratic margins from falling into the low 20s; like what has occurred in neighboring Suwannee, Taylor, or Lafayette counties. Rural whites have bolted to the Republicans across all of North Florida, with the size of the county’s Black population being a key halter of how low Democratic shares can get.
That rural swing aside, this is still a district based out of Leon County; meaning its Democratic edge remains. The density of votes highlights this point. The map below shows Biden and Trump net votes per square mile in 2020.
The data points to a decently Democratic seat under most circumstances. So lets see what happened in the 2022 red wave.
The 2022 Republican Waves
The 2022 midterm in Florida is going to be the standard “worst case scenario” for Florida Democrats for many years to come. The Republican landslides, amid a horrible 2022 turnout gap between the parties, saw Republicans win many districts and counties they normally fall short in. As a result of lopsided turnout and an unprecedented GOP-leaning electorate, 18 State House seats that backed Biden in 2020 went for DeSantis in 2022. The 9th was one of these seats, though it was also notably one of 3 districts to vote for DeSantis for Governor but NOT back Rubio for US Senate. Full 2022 District breakdowns can be seen here.
Like so many districts across Florida, the 9th saw its Democratic turnout trail the Republicans. The district is notable for having a very small turnout gap, as so many of the democrats are state employees in the capital city. In the 2018 Governor’s race, which saw Andrew Gillum take the district by 8%, both parties turned out 75% of their voters. However, in the 2022 midterm, Republican turnout was 74% and the Democratic turnout was just 68%; a historic 6 point gap. On top of this, NPA turnout, a group heavily concentrated among students, was just 50%. The result was a much more GOP-heavy electorate and a narrow DeSantis win.
Here everything went wrong for Democrats. Black turnout in the rural counties was horrid, with the GOP turnout advantage at 19% in Madison County, allowing the county to swing to DeSantis +33. Student turnout was way down, as was turnout among young professional democrats.
However, while DeSantis took the seat, Val Demings managed to win the district over Marco Rubio in the US Senate race. This was common across the state; with Demings largely doing a few points better than Crist. Regional races also leaned Democratic. In the US House Race, Al Lawson defeated Neil Dunn within the district. In the State Senate race, Loranne Ausley defeated Cory Simon within the district.
Allison Tant was not on the ballot that year, as her Republican opponent has dropped out of the race. Had this seat been contested, Tant almost surely wins the race similar to Lawson or Ausley. I go over this in my article looking at the 2022 State House races, but most house candidates outperformed Crist and the Democrats running for cabinet. A seat like the 9th, which voted for Demings and backed local Democrats by 4-5 points, almost surely backs Allison Tant.
While the 9th moved to the right in 2022, it actually went further left of the state than ever before. The modest Democratic losses in the 9th were anywhere from 13 to 19 points more left-wing than the Republican statewide landslides. The district’s voting history relative to the state is below.
The 9th is now on average 16 points more Democratic than the state. With Harris polling on average 5 points below Trump, there is not any real doubt she will carry the 9th; likely by a decent amount. The 9th is expected to back Harris for President, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for US Senate, and Daryl Parks for State Senate.
So why do Republicans think they have any chance in the 9th? Beats me. But lets look at that campaign so far.
The Two-Face Campaign of Spencer Brass
Through most of 2024, it seemed entirely possibly Allison Tant would get no opponent. Then in June, Spencer Brass, a 26 year old in real-estate and development, entered the contest. Brass is a Pasco County native and moved to Tallahassee a few years ago. Brass, who is gay, is married to Dylan Leoni, the son of prominent Tallahassee developer Steven Leoni. As such, he is well connected and already very financially successful. Brass lists his net worth at $5.3 million, though the details of some of his net worth have been left unclear. Brass has redacted several listings of income sources - simply leaving blacked-out lines with millions in value. He claims ALL the info must be redacted because he is the son of law enforcement - but then does not redact other items. He bristles when being questioned on this, as if the financial disclosures are not a legitimate issue.
Brass has simultaneously run a cagey and extremely negative campaign. Most of the dirty work has been done by Florida Republican Party. Anti-Tant texts, mailers, and TV ads have been run by the Republican Party. One racist mailer tried to tie Tant’s support for the BLM movement to support riots and gangs - even using a photo to intimate she is throwing up gang signs.
As seen above, another mailer has attacked Allison on LGBT issues - specifically focusing on the issue of transitioning individuals playing in gendered sports. The mailer here using transphobic language of “boys playing in girls sports” and basically implies she is a traitor to women.
Most LGBT and transgender activists will in fact concede some decisions on competitive sporting may need to be decided. But blanket bans on non-competitive sports, with attacks that directly treat every struggling transitioning kid who maybe just wants to play in their local basketball league for fun, as some sort of insidious threat, is where a policy debate turns into outright bigotry. When you put BIOLOGICAL BOYS in big red, you tell me your concern is not with fair sporting, and rather with mocking and degrading someone who just wants to play a game.
Transgender Floridians, in fact all LGBT Floridians, have been under constant attack in Florida for years. I’ve written about this several times, with my two big pieces below…
Tant has maintained a firm pro-LGBT voting record.
The anti-LGBT attacks on Allison Tant do not stop there. The “Iceberg” commercial, as its come to be called, claims Tant favors sex reassignment surgeries for minors and favors ‘indoctrinating’ kids with LGBT support.
This attack is just full on anti-LGBT hate. Forget about any debate over sports, it is just plain bigotry. Then, during a kick-off event for Allison Tant, Brass’ father in law, the developer Steven Leoni, organized for a truck to blare the ad outside the house of the event. The video is on twitter, and guests and neighbors were furious about the low tactic.
Brass has even tried to claim this was a false-flag, that Tant did it to herself. This is of course a nonsense claim. Leoni, who is part of the Tallahassee developers that are trying to buy off the local government here, is eager to have his son-in-law as a voice for his interests in the Florida capital.
Amid this anti-LGBT barrage against Tant, Brass has tried to claim that it is actually Allison that is discriminating. Brass, who I remind you grew up in conservative working class Pasco County, claims that until this election, he never faced discrimination in his life. He then claimed Allison Tant told conservative pastors about his same-sex marriage to try and hurt him with conservatives; leading to meetings being cancelled. Well I’ll say I call supreme bullshit on that. As Allison pointed out when blowing off the claim, her daughter is openly gay, and Allison has always been a supportive pro-LGBT mother and politician. In my entire time knowing Allison, a time I have always been out, she has never demonstrated any anti-LGBT sentiment. I don’t know a single LGBT person who buys his claim of never suffering discrimination before, as no area, especially Pasco, is free of bigotry. Instead Brass is playing into a tired conservative gay claim that “its actually the left that are bigots.”
Brass said that the LGBT community “just wants to exist” and blames radical activists for causing so much drama over different issues. When asked about things like DEI and the right-wing attacks on diversity initiatives, Brass said this…
“As someone who is a member of the LGBTQ community, people don’t care. And if we stop making such an inflamed argument, people don’t care. So if everyone would just simmer down about it.”
Brass insists that activists lead to the problems for LGBT people. This of course ignores that the modern anti-trans push is based on nothing more than transgender people becoming more open about themselves. Florida’s passing of anti-LGBT laws that say you cannot even put up a photo of a same-sex couple in a classroom, as documented in my “Don’t Say Gay” article, came from nothing more than a religious right that wants to push back against the growing acceptability of LGBT people. Brass acts like we are the ones who brought the hammer down on ourselves. He has nothing to say about the right-wing constantly calling LGBT people “groomers” or “predators.” You see, its the LGBT folks who need to “simmer down.”
Brass may be a gay Republican, however, he is running an anti-LGBT campaign and trying to claim one of the LGBTs biggest House allies is actually the bigot. You likely will not be shocked to learn that Brass has little to no support in Tallahassee’s open and proud LGBT population. Allison Tant also has the backing of major LGBT rights groups like Equality Florida.
While Brass’ campaign is propped up by anti-LGBT ads and attacks, he tries to maintain vague positions on many issues to avoided alienating too many voters. Brass would not answer the following questions when asked at a recent debate…
How he would vote in the Presidential Election?
If Joe Biden fairly won the 2020 Election?
How he would vote on Amendment 3, which will legalize weed?
How he would vote on Amendment 4, which will codify abortion rights?
Brass has a campaign that is laced with bigotry and yet also he won’t take firm positions on major issues of the time. Brass surely knows that Harris will win the district, as will Amendments 3 and 4.
Brass’ entire vibe is nothing more than a rich kid with connections who is trying to weasel his way into the state house. He does this while not actually standing up for his own community under attack, doesn’t answer basic questions about voting, and hides his sources of wealth. This is not a strong candidate.
Does Allison Tant need to worry?
No, she doesn’t. I will bet all I have on a easy Allison Tant victory. The Republicans are spending against Allison, putting up at least $600,000 and potentially up to $1,000,000. Brass, meanwhile, has raised just $50,000 for his formal campaign committee. An election committee of his, which doesn’t have donation limits, has raised $110,000 from just a few developers writing massive 5-figure checks. On paper, it seems serious.
But the reality is, this money cannot counter how blue the seat leans. The 2020 and 2022 data show that even when the bottom falls out, local Democrats win the district; and more likely than not Harris will be getting around the 9% win Biden had in the 9th. In terms of voter registration, little has changed. Democrats maintain a 6.5 point registration lead, with an NPA population heavily made up of college students that lead solidly lefty.
2022 General Registration: 44.9% DEM, 35.4% GOP, 19.7% NPA
Late September Registration: 42.7% DEM, 36.2% GOP, 21.1% NPA
Tant, meanwhile, is a monster fundraiser. She has pulled in over $600,000 in her formal campaign, and raised another $500,000 via an election committee. At least as of a few weeks ago, she was the best house fundraiser in Florida. On top of this, an internal poll has her leading by 19 points!
Tant will win in November, the same day Harris wins the district. The Republicans can sling their mud and Brass can use this campaign to build up connections with Republican-backing developers. At the end of the day, however, this right-wing money is all going into a gigantic bonfire.