Issue #197: Democrats are poised to flip back the Palm Beach Commission
Issue #197: Democrats are poised to flip back the Palm Beach Commission
Flipping the 3rd will bring Dems back into control
Morning everyone! Today is a special issue. It starts off with a disclosure. I was contracted to do some analysis for a consulting firm backing the Democratic candidate for Palm Beach Commission District 3, a seat currently held by a Republican DeSantis appointee. Upon finishing the data report, it was my conclusion this district is incredibly likely to flip back to Democratic hands; thus giving Democrats control of the Palm Beach County commission once again. Myself and the clients decided that making my findings public was desired, so here we are. This is a data breakdown I was contracted for, but it is my own words, my own work, and my own conclusions. I believe the data speaks for itself. With that, lets dive in!
Short Palm Beach County Background
Back in January of 2023, I wrote about the political wave that had taken place in Palm Beach County in 2022. Amid the horrendous Democratic turnout across Florida, Palm Beach County narrowly voted for Ron DeSantis; the first time a Republican candidate for Governor won the county since 1986.
On the same day, two County Commission districts, the 4th and the 6th, flipped to Republican control; leading a commission that was 4-3 Democratic. However, in January of 2023, third district commissioner David Kerner opted to resign his post for a job in the DeSantis administration. This allowed DeSantis to appoint Palm Beach Republican Chairman Michael Barnett to the post, giving Republicans a 4-3 control of the board. You can read all the details here.
My January 2023 article delves into why the Fourth and Sixth districts flipped; but I also pointed out then that I believed The Third would flip back to Democrats in 2024. In doing the data work for this district, my opinion has only been hardened. This is a seat destined to go back to Democratic hands.
Let me tell you why
The New Version of the Third District
Lets go over the specifics of the third district in more detail; as it is a fairly new configuration. As I discussed in my 2023 article, Palm Beach’s redistricting process reshaped the third district to become a Hispanic access seat; reflecting continuing Hispanic growth in the central Palm Beach region. Per the census Voting Age Population data, the district is 49% Hispanic, 30% white, and 18% Black. However, like many Hispanic-heavy areas of Florida, registration and votes cast have lower Hispanic makeups. In terms of voter registration, the third is 40.2% white, 33.6% Hispanic, and 16.7% Black.
While its lower than the census figure, the current Hispanic registration reflects steady growth in non-white voters for the district. This seat would have been 51% white and 26% Hispanic back in the 2016 general election.
The Hispanic voters in this area are also much more Democratic than Republican. The current registration by race and party can be seen below.
As a result of these demographics, the district remains heavily Democratic. In major statewide contests, the district often gave over 60% of its vote to Democratic candidates. In 2016, which saw Biden lose ground with Hispanic voters, he fell to “just” 59% of the vote in the district. It was not until 2022 that we saw a real collapse in Democratic support, but even there both Charlie Crist and Val Demings won the district by a few points.
I will talk all about 2022 in one moment. First, however, I want to talk about the 2020 drop. This drop was heavily driven by Hispanic vote swings, something we saw statewide and in Palm Beach itself.
However, like much of the state, this swing was driven by turnout dynamics among Hispanic voters. In 2020, Republican turnout expanded much more than Democratic turnout with Hispanic voters; leading to an a Hispanic electorate that was more GOP-heavy than before. Some key turnout stats for the third district
District-wide
In 2016, the GOP had a turnout advantage of 2.6%, but in 2020 it was +4.7%.
Among Hispanic voters
In 2016 the GOP had a turnout advantage of 2.0%, but in 2020 it was 9.9%.
The result was an Hispanic electorate that, while still heavily Democratic-leaning, got ever so better for Republicans. There were of course legitimate swings with former Clinton voters. However, turnout was part of this story. That said, the Biden drop was not that severe.
So what happened in 2022?
The 2022 Turnout Disaster
I’ve talked about this non-stop for 18 months, but turnout in 2022 was an absolutely disaster for Democrats. In the third commission district, it was no better. Republican turnout was FIFTEEN points higher than Democratic turnout, with the gap among Hispanic voters being a solid TWENTY points. The turnout by year can be seen below.
As a result the electorate was more Republican than it normally ever comes close to. In terms of registration, the vote cast was 44% DEM and 31% GOP. Now that is still pretty blue, and hence we see Crist and Demings take the seat. But for context, 2020 vote was 47% DEM and 24% GOP: a 2-1 difference. In addition to this, the electorate was much whiter than normal; 54% white and just 24% Hispanic.
So 2022 saw a much more Republican and whiter electorate than the registration data or past votes cast. Despite this, Crist still managed to win the district. You can see how he did compared to Biden below.
Appointed Republican incumbent Mike Barnett is running for his own term on the board. However, as I see it, he is a clear underdog against Democratic nominee Joel Flores. Lets look at why that is,
How Things Look for 2024
The party nominees for this race got decided back in the summer; as neither candidate generated a primary challenger. Barnett, unsurprisingly, was able to stave off any inter-party challenge. For Democrats, Greenacres Mayor Joel Flores was the clear pick. Flores served as Mayor of the city of Greenacres since 2017; with his last term coming to an end just a few months back.
Flores, who is Hispanic, is a good fit not only to help boost Hispanic turnout in the fall but also likely overperform with Hispanic voters. This is something we saw in 2022 where several Hispanic Democrats outperformed Crist and Demings in Hispanic-majority seats. Flores has also managed to raise over $300,000 through his main campaign and a political committee.
However, as countless races have shown before, even strong candidates can be swept out if the cycle is really bad and if turnout for their side collapses. However, as the data in this piece has shown, even with a 2022 disaster, the district still leans blue. In anything approaching regular Presidential turnout, the district will be solidly Democratic.
To highlight this, I looked at current voter registration by party and estimated what the vote cast would be if 2020 Party turnout % was applied. Remember that in 2020 the Republicans had expanded their turnout advantage. The table below shows the vote cast if Republicans maintain their 2020 turnout advantage. I also include a breakdown if the Republicans manage a TEN POINT turnout lead. Not as much as 2022, but still far greater than they can realistically hope for.
So in a scenario where the Republicans have a 10 point turnout advantage, something that no one really expects in the Presidential year, the district is still solidly Democratic. For any Republican to have a chance, they’d need a strong split with NPA voters and to break of some Democrats. As 2022 showed, there just might not be enough potential there for the GOP. The 2022 midterm was the Republican Party’s BEST CASE turnout scenario and it was still a district that Flores likely would have won then.
As I see it, the data in the 3rd district points toward a solid Flores win; flipping back the county commission to Democratic control. We should see Harris and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell win this district by a fairly decent margin. In fact, a recent poll for this race shows Flores with a 15 point lead. While it is just one poll and we have two months to go, that polling plus all the data above points to one thing…
…the Palm Beach Commission will soon be back in Democratic control.