Issue 185: Democrats Qualify a Candidate for Every Legislative Seat in Florida
A first since the 1960s
On Friday, qualifying concluded for Florida’s local and legislative races. With it came some last minute maneuvering, some surprises, and a clearer picture of the August primary and November general. I wanted to discuss some broad qualifying news and notes, but I will be delving much more into individual races in future articles.
The big news for Florida Democrats was the announcement that for the first time in decades, the party recruited and qualified a candidate for every State House and State Senate seat up this year. All 120 House seats have a Democratic candidate, as do the half of State Senate seats up this year. This comes as the party, lagging in resources and direction over the last few years, has worked to revitalize itself and begin a long process to become truly competitive again. This effort is coming as the Biden campaign has made at least some commitment of resources to the state and the November elections will become a battleground over both pro-choice and weed legalization amendments.
The existence of these qualified candidates does not make a district automatically competitive. However, this qualifying achievement comes from party effort to not only have a full slate of candidates for Democrats even in red areas to show up for, but to show democratic donors and activists that the party has, dare I say, “gotten its shit together.” Its a stunning shift from the 2022 dynamic that saw a state party very closed off; which sparked a revolt after the 2022 disaster
It is one step in a long series of steps; but its important. With that, lets take a look at the state of things in both chambers of the legislature.
Florida State Senate
Florida’s State Senate map is only half up this year. All odd-numbered districts are up while the even-numbered seats will be fought over in 2026. The result is actually a fairly quiet Senate map, as many of the competitive seats are even-numbered. Democrats have qualified candidates in each, but many will remain firmly GOP.
How each district voted for President is below.
Democrats are eager to fight for Senate Districts 10, 14, 36, and 38, but these are not up. Instead, the lone Democratic pickup opportunity is Senate District 3, which is held by Republican Corey Simon.
That aside, there are some interesting qualifying notes.
In Senate District 1, former State Senator Don Gaetz was the only Republican to file for this deep-red seat. Gaetz is the father of Congressman/degenerate Matt Gaetz. Before the son burst onto the national scene, Don had been Okaloosa Superintendent, and was State Senate from 2006 to 2016; serving as Senate President. He is destined to return to the chamber.
In Senate District 3, two democrats are facing off to take on Republican Cory Simon. This will be the biggest battleground for November, as Simon is the main target by Democrats, sitting in this Biden +3 seat. Democrat Daryl Parks is the frontrunner and has already raised a monumental $500,000 to take on Simon. First Parks will need to get past Kimblin NeSmith, a Gadsden County Commissioner. I actually covered NeSmith’s path to the Gadsden County commission in this piece. That aside, expect an easy Parks primary win.
In Senate District 15, Incumbent Democrat Geraldine Thompson will face off with former State Senator Randolph Bracy in this black-access seat. Thompson is a very popular figure in the area, likely leaving Bracy in an uphill fight. Bracy came in second in 2022 for the Congressional District 10 primary, losing to Maxwell Frost. Both candidates have overlapping bases of support in the district’s black community.
In Senate District 17, former State Representative Carlos Guillermo Smith won this Democratic-leaning seat without opposition. This will make him the second openly gay state senator in Florida!
In Senate District 19, a possible DeSantis-backed primary for State Rep Randy Fine did not come to pass; meaning Fine is a near-lock to walk into the State Senate over underfunded opposition. I’ll talk more about Fine, the biggest bully in Florida, in a future piece.
In Senate District 25, the biggest qualifying shock took place. Former Congressman Alan Grayson, who was running for US Senate, opted to file for the Democratic primary in this Hispanic-majority district. The seat, covering Osceola and part of Orange County, overlaps with Grayson’s old Congressional seat. In 2022, amid the red wave in Florida, the district only re-elected Victor Torres by 5 points as DeSantis took the seat.
The cause of this narrowing, as I documented here, was largely due to horrible Hispanic turnout. In registration the district was 48% Hispanic and 32% white, but the vote cast was 46% white and just 35% Hispanic. In all reality, the district should remain in Democratic hands thanks to stronger turnout. However, the key here is that either State Rep Kristen Arrington or Torres’ wife, Carmen Torres, win the primary. Republicans will pick either School board member Jon Arguello or self-funder Jose Martinez. Grayson, who has so much baggage I did a 5-part series on him, could put the seat at risk. That said, I personally think Grayson flails in this bid thanks to diminishing support with each bid for office. I will write a full piece on this race down the line.
Meanwhile, over in Senate District 35, a major 3-way Democratic primary is going for this deep-blue district. The seat is based out of Southwest Broward County, and is where I spent my pre-college years. I still have family in the district, who will hopefully send me all the mail they get. This seat was home to nasty fight in 2022 when former County Commissioner Barbara Sharief challenged Senate Democratic leader Lauren Book in the Democratic primary.
I covered the race here and here. The district is very racially diverse and has a Democratic primary that is on average 35% white, 35% Black, and 20% Hispanic. Sharief is Black and Book is white. In the primary, Sharief did best with Black voters but lost white and Hispanic voters. This time, she is running again, but has angered many Democratic officials with her challenge of Book, who was always going to be termed out this year. One of her main opponents is Chad Klitzman, an openly-gay Democratic attorney and operative who came just a handful of votes short in the crowed 2020 Democratic Primary for Supervisor of Elections. These two alone are major heavyweights for the seat; each with heavy warchests, but a third candidate, Rodney Jacobs, who works for the city of Miami as part of its police oversight board, is running as well. Jacobs, who is Black and hails from Miramar, like Sharief, has raised $90,000. This is another seat to expect a broader piece on from me.
Finally, in Senate District 37, upcoming Senate Democratic leader Jason Pizzo is on an easy course to flip hold his coastal Broward district. Despite his district narrowly voting for DeSantis in 2022, the Republicans put up no real candidate here. His lone opponent is Republican Imtiaz Mohammad, a perennial candidate who has run for many offices in Broward and Miami-Dade, initially as a Democrat. He is not expected to be any threat to Pizzo.
There are a few other primaries of note, which I will cover in future pieces. All districts will get discussed in the ratings articles I’ll eventually put out.
State House
As I mentioned before, the Democrats having a candidate every state house seat is a feat not scene for decades; apparently since 1966! Republicans did not make such an effort, as they left many seats, granted all of them deep-blue, with no challenger filed.
There are still many GOP-heavy seats with only one Republican filed, often an incumbent. Only a few incumbents are facing internal primaries.
The democratic side sees most districts with just one candidate filed. A handful of primaries will be taking place in some deep-blue seats but also swing seats. I’d say only one primary is in a definitive red seat; HD33.
Here is how each district voted for President in 2020. You can see more partisan details from this issue.
Right now, Republicans hold 13 Biden districts. Each of those districts now has a Democratic opponent. Now, to be clear, no one should expect 13 flips. Some seats have popular and/or well-funded Republican incumbents.
Finally, the Democratic Party and groups backing them will only have so much money to spend compared with the Republicans. The GOP can spend far more, pump money into more places. Democrats will need to be smart and focused on specific districts. Some of these Biden seats were also very narrow. There is a difference between a Biden +7 seat and a Biden +1. However, races perhaps not currently on the board for flipping can see changes based on shifting national winds or scandals. Having someone at the ready is always good! The specific seats that are likely to be the focus will get more attention from me as the months go on. I’m not going to get into every personal ranking I have now, with some I’m still torn on.
The end of qualifying confirmed which seats would be open or have an incumbent running. Several members were termed out while a few did see incumbents opt for other campaigns or to simply forgo re-election.
I will be delving into individual districts via both my primary previews and my general election ratings. Trust me I already have a stack of local notes on key races I’ll be watching. My goal is to run articles on individual races of note while also having massive broad coverage. Anyone who’s read my primary previews of years past can attest they often top over 10,000 words.
Onto the primaries and generals!