Issue #145: Hong Kong's Democracy: Part 3 - The Landslide and the Crackdown
The end of the Democratic Experiment
Today’s newsletter marks Part 3 of 3 in my series on Hong Kong’s Democracy. For background, read these two newsletters
Part 1: A look at Democracy in Hong Kong and democratic sentiment before the handover to China in 1997
Part 2: A look at the tension in Hong Kong after its handover, as pro-democracy advocates fight for electoral reform from a pro-Beijing legislature.
When we left things off, the 2016 legislative elections had taken place and the pro-Democracy movement was struggling to unite to challenge for electoral reform in the province. This also came as Beijing increasingly became aggressive in meddling in local affairs. The final clash would come in 2019, leading to a landslide election, and followed by a massive crackdown from the CCP that would effectively end Hong Kong’s Democracy.
The 2019 Extradition Law
In 2017, Carrie Lam was elected the Chief Executive via the Election Committee. As I discussed in Part 2, the system for these elections was dominated by pro-Beijing interests. Lam insisting she was no puppet to Beijing. However, in the years to follow, Lam would become the face of Beijing’s continued crackdowns on the Hong Kong’s Democracy movement. The book Among the Braves aptly titled her “The Leader who Killed her City.”
Two years after her election, Lam would become embroiled in a crisis as the debate over an extradition bill became the last straw for demonstrators.
The Geopolitics of a Murder
The confluence of events that would lead to the massive 2019 protest movement began with a murder in 2018. Hong Kong resident Poon Hiu-wing was murdered by her boyfriend, Chan Tong-kai, also a Hong Kong resident, while they vacationed in Taiwan. The murder took place on Taiwan soil, but by the time it was clear Chan was the perpetrator, he was back in Hong Kong. While authorities could arrest Chan for crimes like taking money out of Poon’s account, they could not charge him with the murder. They also could not extradite him to Taiwan, as the two provinces did not have an extradition treaty.
And why would they? They were ALL part of China after all (wink). Passing a law that specifically allowed extradition to just Taiwan would give credence to the notion that Taiwan is a separate nation! Can’t have that. So instead the bill simply aimed to say Hong Kong would be able to extradite accused criminals to Taiwan AND mainland China.
With that plan, all hell broke loose.
The Fractious Debate
The push for the new law began on February 12, 2019. A series of government officials and pro-Beijing lawmakers held a news conference to push the need for a bill. Chief Executive Carrie Lam supported the measure and would become the public face of the drive. However, the bill, already something that will cause tremendous concern within Hong Kong, did not just apply to violent crimes. Instead it included a litany of accused offenses, 46 in total. The full list can be seen here, but I will highlight some key ones
Murder or manslaughter
Battery
Sexual assault and molestation
Unauthorized abortion
Kidnapping
Breaking firearm laws
Breaking FIREWORKS laws
“Impeding the arrest or prosecution of a person who has or is believed to have committed an offence described in this Schedule”
“Aiding, abetting, counseling or procuring the commission of, inciting, being an accessory before or after the fact to, or attempting to commit an offence described in this Schedule.”
“Offences relating to the perversion or obstruction of the course of justice.”
The last three I highlight and directly quote because of their vagueness. While some of these crimes are serious and straight forward, others are broad. It also is important to note the law would allow the accused to be extradited at the whim of the Chief Executive on a case by case basis. This of course meant someone could be accused, even have evidence planted against them, and then be extradited into the mainland. Hong Kong courts were, at the time, regarded as free and fair, based of the UK judicial system. To be extradited into the mainland legal system was as good as conviction.
From this proposal, one notable opposition group emerged - the business community. Several of the provisions that related around corruption and fraud would put several businessmen at risk. Not just those blatantly corrupt, but those who broadly were honorable companies. The truth was, anyone who had any business dealings in the mainland was forced to offer bribes and other services. That was the cost of doing business. The broad law meant if a business that was otherwise truthful but ran afoul of pro-Beijing forces, suddenly an old payment to a corrupt bureaucrat could be used against them. As a result, 9 of the 46 provisions were removed. They are also listed in the link I offered, but key ones were crimes related to taxes, computer fraud, regulations, and documents.
Pro-Democracy lawmakers were absolutely incensed with the proposal and business communities remained concerned about the bill even with changes made. During the debate, international condemnation came down hard on the proposal. The US and EU both made their opposition clear. Meanwhile, Taiwan undercut the bill proponents by saying it did not want the legislation and would not seek extradition under it.
The Police Attack Protestors
Protests began through the spring and into the summer of 2019, but Lam would not consider backing down on the proposal. However, events in the summer rapidly went into overdrive. On June 12th, 40,000 people surrounded the legislative building on the day of the bills 2nd reading. The protests began well before most lawmakers arrived, and fearing for their safety, the pro-Beijing lawmakers hid in police buildings. The session was eventually postponed, giving protestors, which included the young, professionals, clergy, all walks of life, a major victory.
But then, in the afternoon of that day, the Hong Kong Police Force, in a repeat of 2014, began to fire tear gas into the crowds. Not only did they do this to dispel the crowds, instances of the police forcing people into alleys or corners and firing gas at them, a direct physical attack, was witnessed. Police on that day, and many days to come, would also use rubber bullets. The 2019 police tactics would escalate further from the break in peace that occurred during the 2014 Umbrella revolution.
Footage of the police firing tear gas directly at groups of reports was also documented. A reminder that before 2014, protests in Hong Kong were common but remained peaceful. However, from 2014 and on, the police forces used increasingly violent tactics.
Without a doubt the most stunning footage from June 12th was the attack on pro-Democracy lawmaker Wu Chi-Wai. The lawmaker and leader of the Hong Kong Democratic Party was filmed confronting police and demanding to speak to their commanding officer. The police responded by firing tear gas at the lawmaker.
In the single day of June 12th, more force was used by police than in the entire 2014 Umbrella Revolution. The police were also witnessed laughing at the cries of civilians who tried to get the gas out of their eyes and clean up blood from rubber bullets. One Priest in the protests said a cop mocked him with
“Ask your Jesus to come down and see us” (page 139 - “Among the Braves")
This event, and one more to follow, would crash support for the Hong Kong Police Force among a large number of citizens. The police force was rapidly becoming viewed as a tool of Beijing interests.
On June 15th, Lam, who’d refused until that point to withdraw the bill, decided to “suspend it” until further notice. This made no one happy, as pro-Democracy activists wanted it completely off the table. Meanwhile the pro-Beijing business-oriented forces were furious. They already did not like the law, but had played their part and supported it. Now it risked not even being passed and they’d already stuck their neck out for it.
One pro-Beijing lawmakers had harsh words for Lam at a meeting
My colleagues have been fucked everyday while explaining [the bill to the community]. Drop dead! Why don’t you try facing the community and be fucked every day” (Page 140 - “Among the Braves”
On June 16th, 2 million people marched and protested in Hong Kong to demand the bill’s full withdraw and the protest the police actions. This was almost 1/3 of the entire province’s population.
The Occupation of the Legislative Building
Protests continued past the June 15th suspending of the legislation. In addition, learning from the failures of 2014, protestors made tactical changes. Notably their was no organized leadership, with activists and protestors aiming to coordinate events online through sites like LIHKG, a reddit-style forum, telegram, and emerging pro-democracy new media. Different organizations set up their own events, seeing protests of young folks, longtime activists, or even specific professional sectors.
Protestors also aimed to avoid detection and arrest against an increasingly authoritarian police force. This included bracketing protests into groups of peaceful marchers, more aggressive agitators, and passive individuals that aided with things like food, clothing, and changes of clothes. Broad swaths of society united in ways they could to keep up the pressure and fight against the bill and the broad issues of Beijing inserting itself into Hong Kong affairs.
On July 1st, after the police retreated, protestors broke into the emptied-out legislative chamber late that night. They sprayed graffiti and smashed Beijing-affiliated pictures and signs. The protestors took notable efforts to not randomly vandalize, but rather to specifically target Beijing-oriented items. One protestor sprayed-painted out the “People’s Republic of China” quote that was above “Hong Kong Special Administrative Region” Signs declaring “Hong Kong is not part of China” were sprayed or hung across the room. (Image below source).
This was the same chamber where, after the 2016 elections, 6 pro-Democracy elected legislators were kicked out for “oath violations.” (Read Part 2 for a refresher).
After several hours, the protestors left peacefully, but not before issuing five key demands
Full withdrawal of the extradition bill
Withdrawing the government's classification of the protests as a riot
Free imprisoned protestors unconditionally
Investigate police use of force
Implement universal suffrage for Hong Kong
The break-in, notably, did not divide the pro-Democracy camp. The 2014 police attacks and the weeks-early police force had driven a sense of solidarity within the movement. Elders also saw that peaceful protests were being met with force, which made such elevated attacks from protestors inevitable.
"They're not inside that legislature doing all that vandalizing for fun. They were angry," Claudia Mo, a pro-democracy legislator
The message from all sides of the movement was simple - DO NOT SPLIT.
Violence Escalates
Perhaps the point of no return was on July 21st. That evening, in Yuen Long, members of the Triads, aka the Hong Kong mob, mobilized and began a brutal assault on pro-democracy protestors. They attacked not just protestors, but bystanders and the press. The attack was carried out with the police not responding to the reports for hours. When the police finally did arrive, they did nothing to arrest triad members, who all wore white, and many instances of police and triad members laughing were documented. It became clear in the following days that the police knew about the planned attack. Many of the triads were loyal to Beijing, often being a muscle for different business interests. They carried out the role as a vicious muscle. Evidence would also emerge that pro-Beijing lawmakers knew of the planned attack, with pro-Beijing lawmaker Junius Ho being photographed shaking hands with an attacker.
The attack further eroded support for the Hong Kong police and radicalized even more protestors. Polls showed over 40% of residents had ZERO faith in the police. Meanwhile, Lam brushed off calls for an investigation.
In late October, the extradition bill was formally withdrawn; as Lam finally caved to pressure after weeks of clashes. While this would have been a victory, it came as the city was already descending into chaos. Protests got more vicious, as the police attacks radicalized many demonstrators. Chinese-affiliated business began to also be attacked. Nativist sentiment seen among the Localist movement, also reared its head, with more and more people rejecting to notion that they were themselves Chinese in any way and developing a xenophobic attitude toward mainlanders. This sentiment, however, was still a minority of the movement.
Into early November, violence ramped up. The most dramatic movement was the siege of Hong Kong Polytechnic University; which saw demonstrators hold up on the campus in a week-long standoff with the police. This was not a quiet siege either - it was violent. Students and activists made petrol bombs to hold the police off for days.
The siege was unsustainable and eventually broken, but luckily with no loss of life; but over 1,000 arrests. Many hold ups managed to flee and others were arrested. The ending of the campus siege led to a quieting of the violence, as protestors realized things were getting out of hand. The escalation was the result of increasing police tactics and the collective tension in the city - with the looming threat of Beijing ever present.
For Xi and the CCP, they had enough.
The Local Council Landslide
The siege of the university campus and the escalating protests came just as voters were going to the polls for the 2019 local council elections. Despite the councils largely focusing on advisory or low-stakes local issues, excitement was high. As the only elections that were truly democratic, the results would be seen as a referendum on the protest movement, Carrie Lam’s administration, and the looming specter of more Beijing control.
Pro-Beijing forces expected bad results due to the controversy over the extradition bill. There was some hope that the escalation of the protests would yield a backlash. This, however, did not materialize. Not only did voter sentiment remain with the protestors, but excitement for the election was higher than ever. Pro-Democracy forces registered over 300,000 new voters. On top of this, turnout DOUBLED from the 2015 elections.
Election Day itself saw no violence. Voter turnout was sky high, with long lines at many polling booths.
When the results came in, it was a landslide for the pro-Democracy camp; which secured 57% of the vote and wiped out 80% of the pro-Beijing lawmakers on the council.
The pro-Democracy camp’s vote was well-distributed across the province, allowing them to capture all but one of the councils; which only remained in Beijing hands thanks to Ex Officio members.
After the election, over 100 of the elected officials gathered at Hong Kong Polytechnic University to show solidarity with the students and activists who held a siege so recently. The pro-Democracy side remained united against one common enemy - Beijing.
Beijing Crushes Dissent
The protests dragging on for months and then culmination with the pro-Democracy landslide left Beijing officials furious. They were no longer willing to abide by the city showing them up and criticizing their role.
For them, it was time to put an end to the whole saga.
“It’s a Colour Revolution”
Beijing began looking to frame the events of 2019 as foreign interference from early into the events. For Beijing, the phrase to refer to the protest movement was a “colour revolution” - a derogatory term used to frame the protests as a western-backed conspiracy. Broadly this is a reference for protests and revolutions that aim to topple authoritarian governments and establish democracies. Authoritarian apologists, especially Tankies on twitter, deride a “colour revolution” as some sort of western-backed conspiracy. Broadly if you see someone deride a colour revolution on twitter, they don’t care about democratic rights.
CCP leaders and its allies used any events they could to frame the protests as a conspiracy. They latched into US interest in the developments. The protest movement was an international story, which eventually saw Senators like Ted Cruz travel to the province to view events for himself. Beijing was livid at international involvement in their affairs and worked to punish anyone they could. Julie Eadeh, the Political Chief at the U.S. Consulate General in Hong Kong, was photographed having a meeting with protest leaders like Joshua Wong (who began during the 2014 umbrella revolution) or Nathan Law (who’d been kicked out of the legislature), during the protests. This was a legitimate diplomatic meeting by US officials to get an understanding of the situation on the group. Beijing forces used it as “proof” of a conspiracy and subsequently doxed Eadeh’s family - including her parents and her young children; leading to countless death threats.
Efforts by Hong Kong expats and those still in the city to galvanize public support for the protest movement - namely through organized PR drives like “Stand up for Hong Kong” - also furthered Beijing conspiracies. They especially despised that Wong and other activists traveled to Washington DC to lobby for Congress to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act; which would make it where the State Department would determine each year if Hong Kong was autonomous enough. If it was determined the autonomy was gone, the city’s special trade deals could be revoked. The act would eventually pass the Senate unanimously and only lose one vote in the House, notable lunatic Thomas Massie.
Beijing had serious words not just for the protest movement but also for anyone they saw as interfering in their affairs.
“Anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones” - Premier Xi (Page 209, Among the Braves)
The election landslide was the last straw. The pro-Democracy camp, long kept in the role as a loyal opposition, was now ascending. There was already a plan for a serious push from pro-Democracy activists to try and sweep the geographic constituencies in the 2020 legislative elections; as well as pick off some functional seats. The plan for the summer in 2020 was for pro-Democracy candidates to run in a primary to ensure the movement was united behind nominees.
So Beijing began to work on a law to put a stop to all of this.
The National Security Law
The hammer came down quick and fast.
In January of 2020, Beijing officials began to work on a new piece of legislation. With the COVID-19 pandemic beginning to worry health officials in Asia, the CCP used the distraction to draft a bill that would BYPASS Hong Kong’s government institutions. Beijing would FORCE this legislation on Hong Kong by late June of 2020. There would be no protests, no debate, the bill would simply BE law after the national committee approved it.
The 2020 Hong Kong National Security Law made four key things a crime
Secession
Subversion
Terrorism
Collusion with foreign powers
Within these four groups were countless offenses, from stirring up hatred of the Government, or even encouraging others to be disobedient. Encouraging people to boycott elections was now a crime. ANYTHING that could be argued was undermining the state was now a crime.
The law was purposely vague and broad, meant to give authorities as much leeway as possible. Extradition, the item so contentious in 2019, was part of this legislation. Being innocent until proven guilty was gone, as you needed to prove your innocence to even be offered bail options. Searches and seizures with no warrant were allowed. Speech and thought crimes were officially on the books.
“I think it means the mean the end of one country, two systems” - Hong Kong pro-Democracy lawmaker Dennis Kwok (Among the Braves, p 235)
The law was not only intended to allow Beijing to round people up, but to intimidate opposition into silence. Pro-Democracy groups, realizing what this meant, quickly worked to shutdown or go deep underground. As time went on, pro-Democracy press outfits were searched, shut down, and journalists arrested.
The international reaction to the law was fierce. The US decried the law, and UK Prime Minster Boris Johnson declared the 1984 agreement was breached. However, China did not care, they knew the west would do nothing practical against them. They were in a much stronger position than in the 1980s.
“The era when the Chinese cared about what others thought and looked up to others is in the past, never to return” Zhang Xiaoming, Chinese diplomate (Among the Braves, p 240
China also correctly calculated that while many businesses with work in Hong Kong might feign concern, their major concerns would always be with profits. The law did not lead to a massive financial boycott or problem for China.
Rather, countries like the UK focused on giving safe haven for residents with British Overseas passports; which thanks to the city’s time in UK hands, would cover over 70% of the population. With this, over 140,000 people fled the city for the UK. Tens of thousands fled for asylum in other nations as well. Efforts to grant asylum in America to those wishing to flee were initially met with support by the Trump administration. However, Steven Miller, a Nazi far-right advisor, convinced Trump to scrap the plan.
The law would go on to transform Hong Kong into an oppressive state like the rest of China. Pro-Democracy lawmakers were all forced to resign or were arrested outright, leaving a government entirely in the hands of pro-Beijing officials. Candidates that took part in the 2020 pro-Democracy primary, which still saw over 600,000 ballots cast, found themselves arrested. Joshua Wong, probably the most visible face of the young protestors, who’d had his passport seized, was denied asylum by the US Government and was eventually arrested in Hong Kong.
The broadness of the law can be truly understood in this story below; which saw a group of speech therapists arrested for created a children’s book about wolves guiding sheep. The books were viewed as subversive.
Today the pro-Democracy movement is completely bulldozed in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the Beijing government offers bounties for the return of pro-Democracy activists who are living in exile, including harassing the families that remain in the city.
But even with this law, which has destroyed the pro-Democracy movement, more changes were done. The Hong Kong Government in 2021, firmly in the hands of just pro-Beijing officials, passed a series of election changes.
The 2021 Election “Reform”
Despite the fact the 2020 national security law basically makes it impossible for pro-Democracy candidates to run for office, the 2021 Election Law still put the final nail in the coffin - just to be safe. The official line was that this would create “Patriot Only Elections.”
First, all candidates for office must be vetted by a nomination committee. This committee not only investigates positions, but submits candidates to law enforcement for background checks. This means if you want to run, you carry the risk of a background check revealing any past offense, which could then lead you to being wrapped into the national security law. So many potential candidates just avoid the effort.
The Election Committee no longer just elects the Chief Executive. It also now picks 40 of the legislative members. This means the committee is more powerful than ever. With that, several changes and modifications were made
The body was increased from 1,200 members to 1,500
The 117 members picked by the local councils were eliminated
Ex Officio and Nominated members, many from the CCP in Beijing, were added to the body
Few workers would still be able to vote in the functional constituency elections.
As I documented in my previous articles, the only way voters got to cast ballots for the committee was if they were part of a functional constituency - the block of votes given to specific industries or sectors. The number of seats picked by actual works, and not corporate bodies, shrank from 43% of seats to 19%. In addition, the remaining 19% saw just 8,000 workers actually eligible. In 2016, over 240,000 workers could cast thus types of ballots.
As for the Hong Kong legislature, the changes were very simple. The body was increased from 70 to 90 seats, but the number of seats elected via geographic constituencies shrank from 35 to just 20. In addition, 40 seats are now decided via the election committee
And what about the District Councils? The one legitimately elected body for Hong Kong’s time under Beijing rule? Well, they go from 400+ elected seats to just 88. Another 176 are picked via a Beijing-controlled electoral college of committee, with another 179 directly appointed. Honestly…. why bother even keeping them.
So what have these reforms meant for Hong Kong’s election participation? Well, in 2021 we had the legislative elections (after “COVID-mandated” delays) and just a week ago the local council elections took place. Turnout for both elections cratered. The graph here shows turnout for both the legislative and council races from post-handover to present day.
Hong Kong no longer has real elections. The last two votes are now officially the time of performative-only spectacles that authoritarian states love.
Democracy in Hong Kong, for the time being, is dead. It was crushed with laws, and done so as the west grumbled but did nothing to challenge the events.
Final Thoughts
I started this series knowing where things would end up. Yet knowing the ending does not make it any more bitter. The lesson of Hong Kong shows how little other people’s can rely on the collective “West” to really offer anything other than words and statements.
However, there is plenty to be learned from Hong Kong and the fight against authoritarian and strongmen. Next year, many nations will go to the polls, including both the UK and the United States. In several nations, including the United States, the choice between democracy and authoritarianism is likely to be on the ballot. In the spirit of this, the World War 2 in Real Time Youtube Series is launching a new project to track the history of Democracy and to warn against rising anti-Democratic trends in many parts of the world. I suggest you watch this; written and produced by prominent historians. This isn’t random scare bait.
Never assume your vote cannot be taken from you. Just ask the people of Hong Kong.
(Final Note: I want to again praise the Among the Braves Book, which gave me ample information and helped me see the broad narrative of the movement. This book covers countless important activists who fought for democracy. Today many are in exile or jail. Honor them and purchase this book)