Issue #78: Leon Commission 2 - The Runoff from Hell

If you are a liberal in Leon 2, you are out of luck

Before the August primaries, I wrote an article about a county commission district in Leon County. That district, Leon 2, is having an election this year because its popular incumbent, Jimbo Jackson, died of LONG COVID earlier this year. Jackson was the principle of schools at Fort Braden, a rural community that sits on the southwest edge of the county. That community has controlled the district for decades, and views the commission seat as critical for making making sure its voice is heard in a county increasingly dominated by the urban Tallahassee core and its expanding suburbs.

While the district does give Fort Braden strong influence, the community is not the only voting block in Leon 2. The east end of the district includes a large portion of the student population of Tallahassee, with it directly covering a large number of FSU dorms. The district also includes the rural community of Woodville, which has similar issues as for Braden, but is also competing for its own resources. The district is also, by court order, a black-access district, and is around 37% black in registration.

Fort Braden faced a critical test in 2016 when its longtime advocate, Commissioner Jane Sauls, opted to retire. Sauls had been instrumental in getting resources to the Fort Braden community, including championing a community center, over her 20 year tenure.

When Sauls retired, a free-for-all began for the district. I cover this far more in my original article, so I recommend that read. The short version is that the clear candidate of Fort Braden was Jimbo Jackson, who was the popular principle of the school there. Jackson, a democrat, made it into a runoff with Manny Joanos, a Republican and former commissioner from the 1990s. Margaret Franklin and T.J. Lewis split the black vote of the district, preventing either from making a runoff. All candidates for Leon commission run with no party label.

Jackson’s 68% in Fort Braden was monumental when you consider how many candidates were running. On top of this, due to August primary turnout being rock-bottom in student areas (since primaries normally coincide with first week of classes), the Fort Braden precinct can make up to 20% of the vote cast.

A runoff against Joanos was easy for Jackson. He dominated in the district, including over 80% of the vote in Fort Braden.

After Jackson’s win, he’d face no challenge in 2020. However, he was struck by COVID before vaccines became available. While he recovered at the time, the illness did tremendous damage to his body, and its come out that he never fully physically recovered. He passed, suddenly to many citizens, in late May of 2022. The tragic loss led to an outpouring of grief. It also led to a made dash of candidates for the short campaign.

The Short Primary Campaign

Jackson’s passing took place just weeks before qualifying for local offices. After some rapid jockeying, seven candidates qualified for the office. All would run with no party ID and the top two would go to a runoff. A quick breakdown of the candidates is below.

• Hannah Crow (R) - A communications professional from Fort Braden. She is part of the Crow family, which have long ties to Fort Braden as advocates for its needs. Lives in Fort Braden. Has aimed to run as a moderate but is more conservative privately. Raised $55,000 including a $12,000 loan.

• Christian Caban (R until 2021, now D) - A developer who runs Wolf Hospitality Group, a company that recently did the renovations for Governor’s Inn. Caban is the favorite of developers in the county. Has largely run a campaign aiming to not take a strong partisan stance on issues. Lives in Tallahassee. Raised $86,000.

• Lynda Gayle Bell (R) - A former Miami-Dade Commissioner who lost re-election in 2014. Was nominated by Rick Scott to run the Florida Communities Trust and moved to Leon County. Ran for HD7 special election in 2019, but lost Republican primary. President of Florida Right to Life, a pro-life group. Running by far as the most conservative candidate. Lives in Fort Braden. Loaned campaign $25,000 and raised another $7,000; for $32,000 total.

• William Crowley (D) - A budget analyst with the FSU college of medicine. Crowley has taken a strong lane in the anti-developer and liberal-democrat column of the race. Lives in Tallahassee. Raised $10,000.

• Manny Joanos (R) - Current coordinator of public outreach at Lively Technical College and a former Leon Commissioner. Joanos used to represented the Northeast County 3 in the 1990s, and lost to Jimbo Jackson in the 2016 election. Generally regarded as a classic conservative Republican. Lives in Fort Braden. Raised $48,000 including a $5,000 loan.

• Max Epstein (D) - A researcher at DeVoe Moore Center and environmentalist activist. Like Crowley, is in the anti-developer and liberal democratic column. Lives in Tallahassee. Raised $7,500 with a majority being loans.

• Sabrina M. Allen (D) - A teacher from Woodville who ran against Jackie Pons for Superintendent in 2012; getting 17%. Self-described Conservative Democrat. Only African-American candidate to enter. Loaned campaign $7,000 and largely raised nothing else.

This race took place as city and county races were being held under tremendous scrutiny around the role of developers in the community. The arrest of former Commissioner Scott Maddox and indictment of former Mayor Andrew Gillum, and the revelation of an FBI sting operation into developers buying influence, led to a good deal of soul searching about the local government. This also was going on after the local government Blueprint Board agreed to give FSU $27 million for luxury upgrades to the stadium. This was widely criticized by citizens but heavily backed by developers and the Seminole Boosters. The measure passed, and led to Mayor John Dailey, a major defender of the plan, coming in 2nd in the Mayoral race. This goes to a runoff in a few days as well.

Read all about my pre-primary breakdown of the Tallahassee-Leon County drama here. I also did a post-primary breakdown here.

In the county 2 race, many members opted to sidestep the stadium issue, or say they opposed it. However, multiple candidates were framed around the role of developers. William Crowley and Max Epstein quickly emerged as the most vocal anti-developer, pro-reform candidates. Crowley, however, began to gather much more traction than Epstein, and was believed to be the most likely reform candidate to advance. Crow also had clear developer ties, but Caban was viewed as the most pro-developer. He has been backed by a large number of developer interests, allowing him to raise the most money of all candidates. His party switch to Democrat just a year ago was, and is, viewed with tremendous mistrust. For many liberal democrats, Crowley was viewed as the best hope for the district.

The Primary Results

My firm belief before the primary was that Crow, who had the strongest ties to Fort Braden through her family, was the most likely candidate to advance into one of the two runoff posts. Figuring out who else would advance was really up in the air. Sure enough, as the votes came in, Crow took a quick lead. The race for 2nd became a back-and-forth as precincts reported in. It took a recount to confirm it, but Caban advanced to the runoff after edging out Bell by 13 votes out of 5,500 cast.

Crow’s advancement to the runoff was fueled by her support in the Fort Braden community, where she got 56% of the vote. She had decent rural support as well, but had little support in the city.

Caban’s advancement into the runoff was thanks to a more even spread out of support. He didn’t have any dominant precincts.

Bell, who just missed the runoff, was strongest in the rural communities, but specifically Fort Braden and Woodville.

Crowley and Epstein were strongest in the campus precincts and the western Tallahassee fringe. Crowley made up the vast bulk of this vote, but was hurt by the split with Epstein and bad eastern turnout.

Turnout absolutely doomed any hope for a student-backed candidate to make the runoff. Turnout in the campus precincts had turnout under 10%, while the rurals were over 40%.

It cannot be overstated how much the turnout disparity in the district shifts the political dynamic of the seat. Some stats to emphasize this.

• Tallahassee precincts make up 68% of the registration, but only 45% of the primary vote. Rural precincts went from 32% of registration to 55% of the vote.

• Fort Braden makes up just 10% of registration buy almost 20% of the vote

• Voters 18-24, who’s turnout was only 4%, made up just 8% of the vote cast despite making up 27% of registration.

In essence, the district, despite being more urban and student-heavy in registration, has primaries that are led by older and rural voters. Then when we get to November, we get a voter makeup closer resembling registration.

The Runoff

The second it became clear that Crow and Caban would be in a runoff, liberals in the district threw up their hands. Both candidates have reasons for distrust among the liberal-minded voters in the east. Crow has been attacked for liking several anti-COVID lockdown posts on twitter; something especially egregious considering the man she hopes to replace, and who she lauds as a great leader, died of COVID. Crow has said she has “learned” on the issues. It should be noted these “likes” came in December of 2020, well after there was any doubt about the seriousness of the disease.

Caban, meanwhile, has been hit for donations to Republicans and the only-recent change in registration. Caban donated over $2,000 to far-right Nevada Senate candidate Adam Laxalt in May, months post his registration change. Caban’s excuse was it was a favor of a friend, and then he donated to the Democrat as well. He has basically admitted to pay-for-access donations. His campaign is also backed by the developers who have become such a lighting rod in this cycle. Everything about Caban screams no ethics and money rules all.

The positions of both candidates have left prominent liberal groups, most of which who backed Crowley in the primary, to advocate no vote in this runoff. The Democratic Party of Leon County did endorse Caban on their slate mailer, but it feels more like a formality than a ringing endorsement; especially since backing Caban is what the bylaws would say it must do since he is the only Democrat.

Since this race is a special election meant to fill the last two years of Jackson’s term, the seat will be up again in 2024. Already the talk from the left is to give up on the runoff and focus on recruiting a candidate for next time to take on Crow or Caban. It would arguably be better for progressives if Crow won, as going against a Republican (in a seat very likely to vote Democratic at the top-of-the-ticket), would be easier for a progressive democrat. Caban could entrench himself with two years.

For this runoff, Caban has brought in $50,000 and self-funded another $45,000; while Crow has brought in $65,000. I might be out of my mind, but I sense some donor hesitation on Caban’s part, while Crow has secured a good chunk of change. Caban was the biggest spender in the primary, but still only got 16%. Some developers might see Crow as having a better shot. She has plenty of their money in her account.

Whoever wins on Tuesday will have to look over their should in two years. Of course, the biggest question is if progressives and students can advance a candidate they like. If only two candidates file, the race is automatically in November, where the electorate is better for progressives. However, multi-candidate races lead to an August first round. Progressives will see to be careful how they approach in 2024, lest they got locked out of the runoff again.