Issue #65: In Leon County, Fort Braden fights for its Representation
Issue #65: In Leon County, Fort Braden fights for its Representation
Special Election caused by a sudden death of Commissioner Jackson
(Conflict note: I have donated to one of the candidates mentioned in this race, William Crowley. This article, however, is about not just a current race for a seat, but the unique nature of this district).
If you live in Tallahassee, FL or the Leon County area, you are very likely aware of an incredibly nasty and expensive local election season underway. Tallahassee has been rocked by scandals in recent years; largely stemming from the relationship between politicians and developers. Scott Maddox was indicted for corruption and is now in prison while Andrew Gillum is likely on his way as well. Recently, the Leon County/Tallahassee joint Blueprint committee voted to give FSU $27,000,000 for stadium renovations. The vote, which is the tip of the development iceberg, sparked passions from all residents. Now elections in Tallahassee and Leon County are largely being fought on pro or anti developer sentiment. Three Tallahassee commission seats and four Leon commission seats are regularly up this year; and almost all feature a divide over developer projects. These races are all elected on non-partisan ballots.
Commission District 2, however, was not supposed to be up. The district, which stretches from western Tallahassee, including many college students, goes all the way to the west end of the county.
The district has long been held by a member of the Fort Braden Community, which is an isolated area on the Southwest edge of the district.
For Braden is in a unique position in terms of county government. The term Fort Braden refers to the voters along the Southwest Corner of the county, largely along Blountstown Highway. Much of the area away from the county border is protected national forest. The community is isolated from Tallahassee; with any drive taking 25-30 minutes (depending how deep into it you are) just to get to the urban core. The community has relied on its county commissioner to push for the community. For 20 years, from 1996 to 2016, Jane Sauls was the district’s commissioner. When she retired, Fort Braden was worried about losing their advocate.
In 2016, the principle of Fort Braden School, Jimbo Jackson, was elected to the county commission seat. In 2020, he won re-election unopposed. Fort Braden residents loved Jimbo, who continued as principle after his election. Then, in late May of 2022, Jackson tragically passed away. Jackson, who was a titan in the Fort Braden community, was killed by Long COVID. The commissioner had been infected in 2020. He apparently struggled long after, with the infection doing tremendous damage on his lungs and airways. His passing stunned the Tallahassee community.
The death meant a special election for the seat, which was to be held as the regular races went on. This meant a mad dash for candidates; all running to fulfill the legacy of Jackson.
Commission 2 and its History
County 2 was originally crafted in the 1980s, after Leon County was sued by the NAACP over its at-large elections. Leon was divided into five districts, with 2 at-large. The agreement reached was that one commission seat would be a majority-black district, while another would be a black-access seat. In 1986, the commission map designated 1 as the majority-black seat and 2 as the black-access seat.
The borders have changed a bit over the years. Changes in 1992 and 2002 gave the districts the shape the hold now. Since then, the borders have largely only been changed to balance population.
The current registration of district 2 reflects the mandates of the 1980s agreement. The voter registration is 46% white, 37% black, 7% Hispanic. The east end of the district, which includes parts of Florida State and all of Tallahassee Community College, is home to a sizeable student population. That said, Fort Braden and the rural communities backs a strong punch in the district, especially as students tend to not vote down ballot. Turnout is also a major factor. The primary elections take place right as FSU. FAMU and TCC are starting their semesters. They tend to have very weak turnout compared to the rurals. The map below shows turnout from the 2016 primary, which county 2 had a contested race.
Thanks to the turnout dynamic, the Fort Braden precinct of 2365 made up 21% of the districtwide vote despite only making up 11% of registration. In the 2016 primary, the precincts outside of Tallahassee made up 27% of registration, but 50% of the vote cast.
The 2016 Election
In 2016, Sauls opted to retiree. Jackson, then the principle of Fort Braden School, had been named Person of the Year by the Tallahassee Democrat newspaper just two years earlier. His entry into the race gave Fort Braden its champion. The open seat led to a mad dash of candidates. Also in the race was former Leon District 3 commissioner Manny Joanos, Margaret Franklin, T.J. Lewis, and Kirk Headley-Perdue. Leon Democrats worked to make sure that a runoff of Joanos and Perdue, both Republicans, was avoided; targeting them with mail pieces. Meanwhile, Franklin and Lewis, who are both black, risked splitting that voting block. Throughout the summer, it was hard to get a sense for who would advance.
In the end, a runoff between Jackson and Joanos was the result.
The split in the black vote did come to pass, allowing Joanos to sneak by with 17%. It is easy to see either Lewis or Franklin advancing on their own. Jackson’s 68% in Fort Braden was stunning considering how many candidates were running. His dominance gave him a huge lead in the districtwide vote. He also took rural communities like Woodville, but nothing compared to Fort Braden.
In the runoff, Jackson prevailed over Joanos with 63% of the vote. In Fort Braden, he secured a massive 80% of the vote.
Lets compare that to the Presidential contest. True, Jimbo was always favored in a runoff with Joanos because, non-partisan nature aside, a D v R race always favors Ds in the district. Jackson got to be part of the Democratic Party slate cards and mailers. The presidential vote is below.
Jackson’s dominant margin in Fort Braden came despite the area being Republican (and it long has been). It helped that Jackson didn’t have a D next to his name, but I frankly see it hard for him to lose the precinct even if he did. The lack of ID did hurt him in the east end of the district; where the student and black vote is highest. Clinton outran Jackson in the east.
Jackson’s win was so solid that the 2020 contest saw no challengers. Now with his passing, a rushed campaign had to begin to fill his shoes.
The 2022 Contest So Far
Jackson’s passing took place just weeks before qualifying for races. Candidates had to rush, largely paying the filing fee vs petitions. Manny Joanos was the first candidate to file, just a couple days after Jackson’s death. That move actually caused District 1 Commissioner Bill Proctor to say Joanos was being disrespectful by not waiting until after the memorial service.
In the end, seven candidates qualified. I’m including their party ID, where they hail from, and the money raised via the official accounts. There is a tremendous amount of third-party cash, especially from developers, in the local races right now.
Hannah Crow (R) - A communications professional from Fort Braden. She is part of the Crow family, which have long ties to Fort Braden as advocates for its needs. Lives in Fort Braden. Has aimed to run as a moderate but is more conservative privately. Raised $55,000 including a $12,000 loan.
Christian Caban (R until 2021, now D) - A developer who runs Wolf Hospitality Group, a company that recently did the renovations for Governor’s Inn. Caban is the favorite of developers in the county. Has largely run a campaign aiming to not take a strong partisan stance on issues. Lives in Tallahassee. Raised $86,000.
Lynda Gayle Bell (R) - A former Miami-Dade Commissioner who lost re-election in 2014. Was nominated by Rick Scott to run the Florida Communities Trust and moved to Leon County. Ran for HD7 special election in 2019, but lost Republican primary. President of Florida Right to Life, a pro-life group. Running by far as the most conservative candidate. Lives in Fort Braden. Loaned campaign $25,000 and raised another $7,000; for $32,000 total.
William Crowley (D) - A budget analyst with the FSU college of medicine. Crowley has taken a strong lane in the anti-developer and liberal-democrat column of the race. Lives in Tallahassee. Raised $10,000.
Manny Joanos (R) - Current coordinator of public outreach at Lively Technical College and a former Leon Commissioner. Joanos used to represented the Northeast County 3 in the 1990s, and lost to Jimbo Jackson in the 2016 election. Generally regarded as a classic conservative Republican. Lives in Fort Braden. Raised $48,000 including a $5,000 loan.
Max Epstein (D) - A researcher at DeVoe Moore Center and environmentalist activist. Like Crowley, is in the anti-developer and liberal democratic column. Lives in Tallahassee. Raised $7,500 with a majority being loans.
Sabrina M. Allen (D) - A teacher from Woodville who ran against Jackie Pons for Superintendent in 2012; getting 17%. Self-described Conservative Democrat. Only African-American candidate to enter. Loaned campaign $7,000 and largely raised nothing else.
You can watch these candidates in your own words at this WFSU event
From a demographic and regional perspective, it is interesting that Allen is the only African-American candidate to file. Allen, who hasn’t really raised any money, is not especially likely to advance due to weak name ID. Bell, Crow, and Joanos all hail from Fort Braden, but Crow has the deepest ties to the area. She married into the Crow family, which has cache in Fort Braden. Meanwhile, when Bell lost her 2019 HD7 bid, she did win the Fort Braden area.
Crowley and Epstein are very likely to be stronger in the east end of the district with liberals and the handful of students who do vote. Meanwhile, the black community is largely up for grabs, with no obvious candidate representing that community.
Bell vs Crow (and Joanos) for Conservatives
As I’ve discussed, the district is a unique mix between the conservative Fort Braden/rural communities and the more liberal Tallahassee neighborhoods. Both Bell and Crow come from Fort Braden and are jockeying for support there. The community is the most conservative and Republican pocket of the county; with Jimbo the likely most liberal person who could come out of the area. Crow is privately viewed as more conservative than her public image. Recently it came to light that Crow had liked several tweets from far-right figures who downplayed COVID and attacked lockdowns and mask. After this was found out, Crow locked her account.
A reminder that Commission Jackson died from long COVID. Jackson also went on CNN in 2020 to criticize Florida mandating a return to in-person learning; citing safety concerns.
While Crow did state at the WFSU event that she had no issue with the 2020 election, Lynda Bell did go on record saying it had issues but she “didn’t know” if it effected the outcome. Crow also sidestepped when asked about her views on the repeal of Roe v Wade, offering a less clear stance than any other major candidate. Bell, meanwhile, was openly thrilled with the repeal. It is clear Bell aims to lean into her conservative credentials, which may be smart for a crowded primary but would become a deal-breaker in a runoff. The fact is, District 2 is still a democratic-favoring district, especially in the fall. Crow no doubt realizes this, and is moderating herself in the public.
Joanos, a conservative Republican, is also a factor in this equation. However, Joanos has neither the MAGA-style base that Bell is pushing for, or the tight family connections that Crow has. Joanos moved to Fort Braden some 20 years ago, but that did little to help him against Jimbo. My sense is he will likewise be boxed out of Fort Braden by Crow and Bell.
Fight for the City
In the Tallahassee area is where I’d expect to see Crowly, Epstein, and Caban perform best. Caban, who is flushed with cash and has outside aid from developer groups, is aiming for frame himself as center-left. However, he’s been defensive about his voter registration change, with many suspecting it stemmed from him considering a run for office in 2022 or 2024. Crowley and Epstein have both been liberal activists in the community. The issue for both of them is they hail from the same lane, and they risk a similar divide like 2016 saw between Lewis and Franklin. Crowley has run a very energetic campaign and brought in more money than Epstein. Anti-developer and liberal voters largely view Crowley as the most likely to advance between him and Epstein.
Runoff a Guarantee
The race is absolutely heading for a runoff. The only question is who emerges. Its a very hard to predict race. Will Fort Braden get to keep its rural advocate. If they want that, they better hope Crow advances. Bell is unelectable in a runoff. Liberals are hoping for a Crowley upset. Who advances into that runoff could decide its outcome before it begins.
We will see on Tuesday night.