Issue #67: Local Elections of Note in the Florida Primary
My personal list
Its primary day! Hope you are actually opening this on the day of!
I already did a massive, HUGE, gigantic, 22,000 word primary preview covering all statewide, congressional, and legislative races.
So give that a read!
I also did a post on the battle for Tallahassee’s political future!
There are also several local contests going on across Florida. These are some races of note I am watching. In no way should this be viewed as a full list. This is entirely what I am focusing on the most. Its entirely likely I’ll find more interesting races after they happened.
So….. here is some fun stuff to watch
County Commission Races
Some of the races I’m watching close
Orange County Mayor (Race Details)
The outcome of the Orange County Mayor race, which is non-partisan, is not much in doubt. Former Sheriff Jerry Demings, who was elected Mayor in 2018, is up for another term. He faces three under-funded opponents.
Demings, the wife of Congresswoman Val Demings, is a strong Democrat overall, but he also has left-wing detractors. Demings’ pro-developer stances; which have put him on the opposite side of pro-environment and rent-control pushes, have caused a good deal of liberal grumbling. Kelly Semrad is the most notably lefty challenger to Demings; running on strong environmental protection. In the end, the question for me is what margin Demings gets and if we see clear liberal dissent tomorrow.
Orange County Commission District 2 (Race Details)
There is only one Republican left on the Orange County Commission! Note though all these races are officially non-partisan.
Christine Moore is up for re-election, and Democrats are backing Sandra Fatmi-Hall. Also running is Christopher Delgado. All three have raised between $100,000 and $150,000 and if no one gets 50%, a runoff happens in November.
Broward Commission Districts 8 and 9 (Here and Here)
Broward underwent a major change in its County Commission Districts this year. Thanks to an independent commission, Broward now has districts that better reflect the county’s growing diversity. For this year, the biggest change is that Central Broward now has black-performing County Commission Districts.
Seat 8 covers more of the historic African-American communities. Seat 9, meanwhile, includes a the larger Caribbean population; though both have a mixture of Caribbean and non-Caribbean black residents. I delve much more into the demographics of this map here (and Note is was Plan C decided on).
In district 9, the race reflects the diversity of the district. Community leader Guithele Ruiz-Nicolas, who is of Haitian decent, is facing off against Lauderdale Lakes Mayor Hazelle Rogers, who is Jamaican. Rogers is likely to win this race due to strong ties in the area; being a former city commissioner and state representative. She’s raised $190,000 vs Ruiz-Nicolas’s $60,000. I’m not saying this is a lock though, its worth watching. This is a Democratic primary but its open to all voters, as no other candidates qualified.
In district 8, multiple Democrats are running, and there is no runoff. The two heavyweights here are former State Rep Bobby DuBose and Current Ft Lauderdale Commissioner Robert McKinzie. Fun fact, McKenzie ran for council when then-commissioner DuBose made his 2014 state house run. DuBose recently left the house to run in the 2021 Special Election for the 20th Congressional district, but came in 5th. Retired Jackson Health System executive Aude M.L. Sicard, who is Haitian-American, is a longshot but cannot be ruled out, especially with the districts Caribbean voters. McKinzie has raised almosr $300,000 to DuBose’s $100,000 and Sicard’s $40,000.
Miami-Dade Commission District 2 (Race Details)
This commission District is one of 3 black-performing districts in Northeast Miami-Dade County. This district specifically is also home to many Caribbean, notably Haitian, voters. Commissioner Jean Monestime is termed out, and multiple candidates are running for the seat; including North Miami Mayor Philippe Bien-Aime. Several non-elected candidates are generation major support and cash; including nonprofit head Marleine Bastien and Miami NW Senior High Principle Wallace Aristide. If no one gets 50%, a runoff is had. This will very likely be a runoff.
Miami-Dade Commission District 6 (Race Details)
This district is an inland central-Dade district that is solidly Hispanic and deep-red. Four candidates are in the race for this seat, but two Republicans are standing out. Kevin Marino Cabrera, who was director of Donald Trump’s 2020 FL campaign, has the Presidents backing. Outgoing commissioner Rebeca Sosa is backing Coral Gables Commissioner Jorge Fors Jr. Over a million has been spent in this race. With two other candidates raising between $30,000-$50,000 this could be decided now, or it could go to a runoff if the vote for the others is enough.
Miami-Dade Commission District 12 (Race Details)
This seat is a Northwest Dade, Majority-Hispanic seat. It is a solid GOP area. This race should be a no brainer for any voter who isn’t an idiot. On one side is Juan Carlos Bermudez, the Mayor of Doral. Not only is he mayor, he got the city incorporated in 2003. His opponent? Sophia Lacayo, a former Sweetwater Commissioner who was removed from office and charged for lying about actually residing in the district. Now running for commission, Lacayo has lied about endorsements, refused to pay Sweetwater back for her year on the commission, and is self-funding over $1,300,000 into this run. But as Florida Politics points out, her finances, which are a mess, show alot of companies giving to her are also ones she owns and also got PPP loans for. She should lose tomorrow, and at this rate is probably heading for prison.
Judicial Races
There are three judicial races I will be watching
Circuit 17 (Broward County), Group 23 (Race Details)
This race is on my list for one reason: Senator Gary Farmer. After redistricting led to South Florida shrinking by a Senator District, Farmer, who’s aggressive style left him on the outs with much of the Senate Democratic members, opted to make a run for judge instead of going into a member v member primary. Farmer, a longtime lawyer who’s father was a judge, is the money leader for this race by miles and is likely to prevail. Farmer has gotten some campaign flack for referring to himself as a Democrat when speaking to clubs; which is a no-no for candidates. His opponents, however, have not had the resources to push any doubt into voter minds. In the end, most voters will see the advertising from Farmer and think “seems qualified” - and he is. So he is likely to win.
Miami Dade Court Judge 5 (Race details)
No clearer difference has ever existed for a judicial election. On the one side is Judge Fred Seraphin, who’s appointment to the board in 2001 made him the first Haitian-American judge in the county. His father was a political opponent of the François “Papa Doc” Duvalier, the Voodoo Tyrant of Haiti, and would eventually be murdered for that defiance. Seraphin’s opponent is former school board member and state representative Renier Diaz de la Portilla. Part of the INFAMOUS Diaz de la Portilla political family, who have been in and out of office for decades and are insanely bombastic and subject to nonstop ethics questions.
To this day, this is the best story in the history of Miami-Dade politics, when Renier got into a fight outside a Cuban radio station on primary night. Here is a quote from said story: “Hail Mary, Mother of God, the Diaz de la Portillas are out there!” Anyway, Seraphin needs to win.
Circuit 13 (Hillsborough) Judge, Group 37 (Race Details)
I am not the type of person who says “vote out this judge because of this ruling” but in Hillsborough, the case has got to be made. So here is the story. Incumbent Circuit Judge Jared Smith has an opponent in Nancy Jacobs. Smith generated national attention earlier this year when he denied a 17-year-old minor a judicial bypass to get an abortion. Now look, think about abortion however you like. The issue is WHY he denied it. He said Jane Doe has “poor grades” as proof of her lack of maturity to make such a decision. Well Sir! That opinion, btw, was overturned by the appeals court. Since then, this race has gotten especially nasty. As noted here, backers of both candidates are flooding the race with negative advertising. The candidates themselves cannot go negative, but 3rd party groups can.
Smith has also gotten into trouble for his wife saying at a church, about Jacobs, who is Jewish btw, “We pray for her, she needs Jesus…. To deny God and to deny the Bible is a person that the heart is very hard toward God." So as a pretty devout Christian I can say Smith and wife sound terrible. Smith has also gotten into back and forth with the press and has started to lose endorsements; like the County Public Defender. This guy does not belong in a robe. But I’m sure if he loses Ron DeSantis will swoop him and make him a Supreme Court Justice or something!
School Boards
I’ll be watching the races for everyone on this Ron DeSantis list of endorsees.
One candidate not on this list I’m also watching is Alisabeth Lancaster, who is running or Santa Rosa School Board. She is very likely to lose to incumbent Carol Boston. Why? Because while Santa Rosa is conservative, they are so conservative they will elect someone who said doctor’s who aid in gender transition for minors should be hanged. The fact she is not in jail is everything wrong with this country. Anyway, she should lose, and it better be a landslide. Considering Lancaster only raised $3,000, it better be.
Anyway, that’s all I got!