Issue #17: Florida's 2021 Local Elections & FL-20 Recounts
A quick look at where things stand in some of Florida's 2021 races
For this newsletter, I want to take a look at some of the local races on the Florida ballot last week.
Florida 20th
(Conflict note: I did a data profile of the district for the Hardy campaign back in the spring/summer. Was not involved in day-to-day campaign).
The biggest race of election night in Florida was the 20th Congressional district primary. I covered this race and the candidates in last week’s newsletter. Once results began to come in, it was clearly a race between Broward Commissioner Dale Holness and self-funder Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. The results wound up with a THREE VOTE DIFFERENCE! As a result, a recount was ordered and completed last week. The current totals stand with McCormick up by 5 votes.
Holness won a decent lead in Broward, which would likely have been enough to secure him the seat. However, McCormick’s dominant win in Palm Beach, where Holness came in 4th, kept this neck and neck.
The results are not final - with oversees ballots having until this Friday to reach the election departments (but they must have been postmarked by election day). Holness, however, is not likely favored with these voters.
We don’t have full precinct data yet, but Broward’s data (which is 75% of the vote) shows Holness’ base was heavily concentrated in Caribbean communities.
With only a handful of ballots expected to be counted - Holness netting 5 is a tall order and will require some luck.
I intend to delve deeper into FL-20 when votes are final and we have turnout data. Key points that stand out.
Holness successfully galvanized his base, but he clearly had shortcomings outside Caribbean voter blocks. His horrible showing in Palm Beach was especially damaging.
McCormick’s self-funding allowed her to dominant early media and it clearly allowed her push past multiple elected officials
Three state lawmakers, all didn’t come close. Perry Thurston represents over half of the districts’ democrats. He came in fourth. Dubose and Hardy followed much further behind in single districts.
Like I said, expect more of a deep dive down the line.
St Petersburg
(Conflict note: I did data work for the Welch campaign from the spring through the runoff. I didn’t work on any of the other St Pete races).
One of the least surprising results out of St Petersburg was the Mayoral election. In the August primary, former County Commissioner Ken Welch led the pack with 39% of the vote. He wound up in a runoff with Republican councilman Ken Blackmon. In such a Democratic city, and with Blackmon not sporting the cross-over appeal folks like Rick Baker once did, Welch was always a favorite to win.
The St Pete city council elections were good for Democrats across the board. Democrats won both District 1 and District 4
The races for districts 6 and 8 pitted more establishment/liberal Democrats against more progressive candidates. Incumbent Gina Driscoll easily bested a progressive challenger. In district 8, which was open, progressive Richie Floyd narrowly bested former commissioner Jeff Danner. Floyd’s win is a major victory for progressives.
St Pete voters also cast ballots on multiple charter amendments. The race I was following the most was Amendment 1, which would have moved city council races to single-member districts. St Pete has a unique system, where primaries take place in single-member districts; but runoffs are citywide. Moving to single-member districts was meant to correct a racial representation problem in the city - as up until then no African-American had beaten a white candidate in a runoff. However, the elections of Floyd and Welch broke this streak.
The amendment failed, narrowly passing in the African-American community but losing badly in the whiter precincts.
Amendment 2, which reformed redistricting, also failed.
Hialeah
In 2020, Hialeah was one of many Miami cities to swing heavily toward Donald Trump. After Clinton only lost it by 100 votes, the margin then swung to Trump +34
In this year’s open mayoral election, former County Commissioner Steve Bovo was in a perfect position to win the election. Bovo had run for County mayor in 2020 and was a steadfast Trump guy. He even secured Trump’s endorsement. This allowed Bovo to easily win in the first round.
Bovo’s share of the vote was similar to his showing within the city in 2020 County Mayoral Primary. In both the primary and runoff, Bovo was dominant in Hialeah.
Bovo, barring any scandals, should have no problem electorally in Hialeah for some time.
Miami Beach
(Conflict note: I did some data work for the NO campaign)
Miami Beach had its local races on Tuesday. Mayor Dan Gelber easily won re-election - while city council races move to runoffs. The biggest fight was over a referendum to move “last call” from 5am to 2am along the Ocean Drive/South Beach area.
Proponents of the move, which failed at the ballot box four years ago, argued the party scene (which often includes folks outside the city) was causing crime problems. High-profile incidents around Ocean Drive didn’t help. Proponents of 5am pointed out most crime happens unrelated to to the Ocean Drive nightlife - and that a change will only reduce tax revenue in the city.
While voters rejected this change four years back, this time they were on board.
Clearly news stories hurt the NO campaign. This is another race where final turnout data will be helpful for more thorough analysis. Miami Beach is a rich mixture of retirees and young families; all with their own ethnic background and politics. The Ocean Drive area narrowly voted against the change while many high-rise condo voters supported the change. I want to get some race/age final data to dig into these voting patterns more.
Manatee County
In Manatee county, a contentious campaign emerged over a property tax extension that funded the school district. The local Republicans, and several commissioners, opposed the measure. The opposition meant little, as the proposal easily passed.
Turns out people want to fund schools.
Lakeland
In the city of Lakeland, incumbent Mayor Bill Mutz easily fended off a far-right, q-anon candidate. Saga Stevin had campaign highlights like faking endorsements from the Polk Sheriff and claiming George Soros controlled local politics.
Its actually likely many Stevin voters didn’t know about the candidates’ crazy margins. Mutz was recently attacked as a RINO by third parties.
Other News
Guess what, looks like we might have some draft redistricting maps by Wednesday
I’m sure the drafts will be totally fair and not gerrymanders. After all, why would Chairman Ray Rodrigues say that we should ignore independent analysis? In his memo, the Chairman warned “self-appointed redistricting experts” would flock to the media.
Well. Guess what Senator.
See you Wednesday.