Jolly can definitely win a Democratic primary especially if Gwen Graham declines to run. Before covid and extreme gerrymandering, Florida was a purple state. Rise of NPA registrations may ultimately help a Democrat win the general. The national economy is in decline and Florida will suffer more than most states with its Florida specific issues tied to real estate, homeowners insurance, tourism and weather risks.
The key to winning Florida is flipping back the non Cuban Hispanic and Asian vote back to 2018 levels by running a strong moderate with crossover appeal.
We all know Obama won Florida twice - in 2008 and 2012 - thanks to his unique strength among working-class and rural white voters, as well as some residual loyalty in New Deal-era socially conservative rural counties. These strongholds began to collapse in 2016, shifting states like Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, and Indiana into the Republican column more permanently. Yet Florida was actually closer in 2016 than in 2020: Hillary Clinton only lost by a single percentage point, while Biden - despite increasing investment in the state and improving on Clinton's performance in places like Texas, Iowa, and Ohio – lost by 3.4 points.
Interestingly, Biden improved across almost all demographics nationally but performed worse among Latinos. No Democrat has ever matched Hillary's 2016 performance with Latino voters. Her relative strength is likely attributable to Trump's not yet normalized anti-Latino inflammatory rhetoric at the time and Hillary's solid promise of immigration reform. Hillary even won an estimated 46% of the Cuban vote — a rare high-water mark for Democrats with a group that barely voted for Gore or Kerry.
So here's the core of my theory: Florida was only competitive in 2016 because of a once-in-a-generation showing among Latino voters, including Cubans. That anomaly masked the broader realignment already underway and clearly seen in Ohio or Iowa. Without Obama-era levels of support from rural and working-class whites, Democrats simply could not win the state in a presidential cycle. If you dig into the precinct-level data, the trend becomes clear: small cities, towns, exurbs, and rural counties have trended increasingly red, while urban centers and suburbs have gone bluer - but not by enough to overcome the former.
Democrats even ran a charismatic candidate (atleast at that point) with strong urban turnout, Andrew Gillum, but it wasn’t enough to counter the entrenched Republican strength in less urban areas, with the Latino vote share returning to Obama levels. DeSantis was not yet popular and an average candidate who had seemingly lost the primary until Trump's sudden endorsement.
Agree but you assume that segments of rural white voters will continue to support MAGA candidates. Trump's policies gutting safety net policies like Medicaid, SNAP, etc. coupled with tariffs and increased joblessness will move the needle on some of these voters once the pain increase later this year. It's only 100 days and the GDP just turned negative.
Please have someone proofread your article. You are using incorrect words such as BARE instead of BEAR and SENSE instead of SINCE. To have such cringing mistakes and otherwise excellent article is painful.
Jason Pizzo was by far the smartest political mind with the most chance to appeal statewide you the Dems had left. You ran him off almost entirely because of personal and petty grievance, because he wouldn't bend to your exact ideology (and routinely picked apart the arguments of inexperienced and intellectually uncurious activists on either side).
The power base (using the phrase generously as it's mostly just grift - Nikki Fried is running the party exactly how someone sent to destroy & plunder it as quickly as possible would be) of the state Dems is deeply alienating to enough Floridians that it is impossible for anyone like them to ever get elected.
You may feel personally excited that you got to expel someone you dislike/are jealous of, who's big liability was he doesn't have the emotional control to regularly point out how smart he is (some common ground there) but the party is substantially further away from power or achieving anything meaningful now that Pizzo is gone.
You really need to deeply internalize how disconnected & offputting state Dems have become to moderate people in this state. Anyone who pays attention to the day to day and the public comments of the Florida dems feels this. You are right in the middle of this and seem to be fueled by your personal grievances, so internalizing it is unlikely. But posts like this are right on if the goal is moving you further away from being politically viable in this state. Could not be more emblematic of the total death spiral of state Dems.. That's the abject reality of what's going on.
At the risk of getting flamed, you ignore the increased number and severity of anti-semitic incidents at northern colleges. Had these attacks been directed at any other group, the colleges would have taken action. Other than Shapiro, the Democrats did nothing. Do I think Trump is too heavy handed? Yes, but many Jews fell the Democrats have not been fair to them. All students must be allowed access to the schools that enroll them.
I don't think I ignored it when I directly pointed it out and called it abhorrent. I've been very vocal about the protests devolving into anti-Semitism and clashed on it many times. But none of that makes Pizzo's rant dignified or accurate. He voted the same as the other democrats, so clearly he did not find guns on campuses as a good idea, but then he decided to attack is colleagues anyway for no real reason. Not a single democratic senator he attacked in that committee has denied anti-Semitism being an issue.
So Pizzo's rant was entirely unwarranted and frankly I don't believe he was doing it for any reason other than to look tough.
Thank you. I apologize if I did not read all your comments. But I do think the Democratic reaction to anti-semitism by people other than Pizzo has not only impacting voting, but also fund raising and volunteers. People may just say politely, so sorry, busy, when asked to step up.
Jewish voters were most Democratic after Blacks in the 2024 election, that wouldn't be the case if what you said were correct. Democrats haven't turned their back on the Jewish people and are strongly against antisemitism. Oct 11 and Gaza war are horrible tragedies but pro Palestine protestors also have their right to free speech and due process before any disciplinary action. Antisemitic actions at universities should not be tolerated. Both of these can be true at the same time.
Of course everyone has the right to free speech. But when speech turns into action to such a degree that a federal judge held UCLA in error for not protecting Jews access to classes and library and Columbia had to cancel classes and graduation and Democrats other than Shapiro did nothing, actions have consequences.
So you're now fully into Trumpian deportation fascism over an apparently wrong incident which shouldn't have happened and I don't know much about, correct? Pathetic.
Jolly can definitely win a Democratic primary especially if Gwen Graham declines to run. Before covid and extreme gerrymandering, Florida was a purple state. Rise of NPA registrations may ultimately help a Democrat win the general. The national economy is in decline and Florida will suffer more than most states with its Florida specific issues tied to real estate, homeowners insurance, tourism and weather risks.
The key to winning Florida is flipping back the non Cuban Hispanic and Asian vote back to 2018 levels by running a strong moderate with crossover appeal.
We all know Obama won Florida twice - in 2008 and 2012 - thanks to his unique strength among working-class and rural white voters, as well as some residual loyalty in New Deal-era socially conservative rural counties. These strongholds began to collapse in 2016, shifting states like Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, and Indiana into the Republican column more permanently. Yet Florida was actually closer in 2016 than in 2020: Hillary Clinton only lost by a single percentage point, while Biden - despite increasing investment in the state and improving on Clinton's performance in places like Texas, Iowa, and Ohio – lost by 3.4 points.
Interestingly, Biden improved across almost all demographics nationally but performed worse among Latinos. No Democrat has ever matched Hillary's 2016 performance with Latino voters. Her relative strength is likely attributable to Trump's not yet normalized anti-Latino inflammatory rhetoric at the time and Hillary's solid promise of immigration reform. Hillary even won an estimated 46% of the Cuban vote — a rare high-water mark for Democrats with a group that barely voted for Gore or Kerry.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._2012_to_2016_presidential_election_swing.svg
https://www.esri.com/arcgis-blog/products/js-api-arcgis/mapping/electoral-swing-in-the-2020-u-s-presidential-election
So here's the core of my theory: Florida was only competitive in 2016 because of a once-in-a-generation showing among Latino voters, including Cubans. That anomaly masked the broader realignment already underway and clearly seen in Ohio or Iowa. Without Obama-era levels of support from rural and working-class whites, Democrats simply could not win the state in a presidential cycle. If you dig into the precinct-level data, the trend becomes clear: small cities, towns, exurbs, and rural counties have trended increasingly red, while urban centers and suburbs have gone bluer - but not by enough to overcome the former.
Democrats even ran a charismatic candidate (atleast at that point) with strong urban turnout, Andrew Gillum, but it wasn’t enough to counter the entrenched Republican strength in less urban areas, with the Latino vote share returning to Obama levels. DeSantis was not yet popular and an average candidate who had seemingly lost the primary until Trump's sudden endorsement.
Agree but you assume that segments of rural white voters will continue to support MAGA candidates. Trump's policies gutting safety net policies like Medicaid, SNAP, etc. coupled with tariffs and increased joblessness will move the needle on some of these voters once the pain increase later this year. It's only 100 days and the GDP just turned negative.
Please have someone proofread your article. You are using incorrect words such as BARE instead of BEAR and SENSE instead of SINCE. To have such cringing mistakes and otherwise excellent article is painful.
Jason Pizzo was by far the smartest political mind with the most chance to appeal statewide you the Dems had left. You ran him off almost entirely because of personal and petty grievance, because he wouldn't bend to your exact ideology (and routinely picked apart the arguments of inexperienced and intellectually uncurious activists on either side).
The power base (using the phrase generously as it's mostly just grift - Nikki Fried is running the party exactly how someone sent to destroy & plunder it as quickly as possible would be) of the state Dems is deeply alienating to enough Floridians that it is impossible for anyone like them to ever get elected.
You may feel personally excited that you got to expel someone you dislike/are jealous of, who's big liability was he doesn't have the emotional control to regularly point out how smart he is (some common ground there) but the party is substantially further away from power or achieving anything meaningful now that Pizzo is gone.
You really need to deeply internalize how disconnected & offputting state Dems have become to moderate people in this state. Anyone who pays attention to the day to day and the public comments of the Florida dems feels this. You are right in the middle of this and seem to be fueled by your personal grievances, so internalizing it is unlikely. But posts like this are right on if the goal is moving you further away from being politically viable in this state. Could not be more emblematic of the total death spiral of state Dems.. That's the abject reality of what's going on.
At the risk of getting flamed, you ignore the increased number and severity of anti-semitic incidents at northern colleges. Had these attacks been directed at any other group, the colleges would have taken action. Other than Shapiro, the Democrats did nothing. Do I think Trump is too heavy handed? Yes, but many Jews fell the Democrats have not been fair to them. All students must be allowed access to the schools that enroll them.
I don't think I ignored it when I directly pointed it out and called it abhorrent. I've been very vocal about the protests devolving into anti-Semitism and clashed on it many times. But none of that makes Pizzo's rant dignified or accurate. He voted the same as the other democrats, so clearly he did not find guns on campuses as a good idea, but then he decided to attack is colleagues anyway for no real reason. Not a single democratic senator he attacked in that committee has denied anti-Semitism being an issue.
So Pizzo's rant was entirely unwarranted and frankly I don't believe he was doing it for any reason other than to look tough.
Thank you. I apologize if I did not read all your comments. But I do think the Democratic reaction to anti-semitism by people other than Pizzo has not only impacting voting, but also fund raising and volunteers. People may just say politely, so sorry, busy, when asked to step up.
Jewish voters were most Democratic after Blacks in the 2024 election, that wouldn't be the case if what you said were correct. Democrats haven't turned their back on the Jewish people and are strongly against antisemitism. Oct 11 and Gaza war are horrible tragedies but pro Palestine protestors also have their right to free speech and due process before any disciplinary action. Antisemitic actions at universities should not be tolerated. Both of these can be true at the same time.
https://jstreet.org/press-releases/jewish-voters-reject-trump-and-republicans-support-diplomacy-oppose-netanyahu-government-policies/
Of course everyone has the right to free speech. But when speech turns into action to such a degree that a federal judge held UCLA in error for not protecting Jews access to classes and library and Columbia had to cancel classes and graduation and Democrats other than Shapiro did nothing, actions have consequences.
So you're now fully into Trumpian deportation fascism over an apparently wrong incident which shouldn't have happened and I don't know much about, correct? Pathetic.