Issue #231: Bermuda Election Keeps PLP in Power - but with a warning from voters
Split opposition saved the PLP this time.
Last week, I wrote about Bermuda and its history. The self-governing British territory has a long history with racial apartheid and a transition toward Democracy. You can read that summary here.
That history took us to the present status of party politics in the territory. The territory has long been majority Black and around 30% white. However, for over a century, white landowners controlled elections. Proper elections came at the end of the 1960s.
Currently the Progressive Labour Party holds a dominant position in elections. This was the original party that formed to fight the apartheid system. It did not ever win control of the territorial legislature until 1998; three decades after the start of free elections in the territory. Instead, the United Bermuda Party ruled the islands. The UBP aimed to align the white elites of the island with Black middle class voters. The PLP, meanwhile, struggled with being too revolutionary at first and suffered from built-in biases in the regional press. Once the PLP won control in 1998, the UBP eventually collapsed and was replaced by the One Bermuda Alliance. Broadly elections in Bermuda have been dominated by two parties.
The OBA won the 2012 elections, but otherwise it has been PLP rule of the 36 member legislature. The 2020 elections saw a historic landslide for the PLP; giving them 30 of the 36 seats in the legislature.
However, heading into the 2025 election, there was signs of trouble for the PLP. The big issue was, could opposition forces unite. Lets look at how the 2025 election went and why the PLP is facing growing critique.
The 2025 Campaign
Before diving into the results, its important to look at the campaign and dynamics leading into the vote. Note that I wrote this section before the results came in. I wanted to write-up the campaign without results to influence any narrative. So below I have looks at the state of the parties heading into the vote, then we will look at the results themselves and see how well this preview matched the vote.
The PLP in Power
As the longtime party in power, the election is seen a referendum on the Progressive Labour Party and Premier David Burt; who has led the territory since 2017.
There is plenty of critique to be leveled at the PLP. Many have argued that the firm electoral position of the party has left it less driven for reform. Compare this with the 1998 election and the litany of reforms passed after coming to power, the PLP is now often accused of simply working to maintain its power. Meanwhile the islands have dealt with rising crime, homelessness, and costs of living. This dynamic has hurt incumbent governments across the world.
Meanwhile, Premier Burt has seen his tenure come under increasing scrutiny. Burt has been argued to be too heavy handed and eager to control party members; prioritizing control over getting things done and having open debate. Several senior PLP members are not running for re-election this year and one member, Vance Campbell, actually defected to the OBA last year.
Younger Bermudians are increasingly disillusioned with the PLP; which instead has the strongest base of support with older Black Bermudians. PLP has been accused of simply blaming continued inequalities in the nation as a byproduct of the old apartheid system once on the islands. One black candidate for the OBA took the PLP to task
The Progressive Labour Party has worn out the race card. All Black Bermudians will continue to maintain our Black card but our debit cards and credit cards are worn โ maxed out paying for food, rent, gas, petrol, clothing, electricity, childrenโs needs, etc.
In many ways this is similar to the dynamic of the ANC in South Africa, which I wrote about a few weeks ago. Critics of the PLP, including many who have no desire to back the OBA, point to the PLP not doing enough to fix these issues despite strong majorities and largely being in power for the last 27 years.
Premier Burt has defended his leadership, pointing out the territory navigating the COVID crisis, who severely hurt the tourist industry. He has also stated the party is listening to the concerns of the independent candidates running and is willing to work with any elected. This offer has notably not been given to the OBA.
Perhaps the best way to summarize the critique of PLP is that to many, they are now the party of status quo. A role once reserved for the defunct UBP has now been cast to PLP. The biggest benefit for the PLP, however, is scattered and weak opposition.
OBA Struggles in Opposition
While the PLP seems to be suffering critique and could have been at more serious risk in the election, the One Bermuda Alliance is clearly not in a strong position to capitalize on it. The Party has struggled to regain its footing after back-to-back losses. As critics of the PLP rise, they donโt look to the OBA as an alternative; rather seeing them as a different side of the โstatus quoโ coin. On top of this, the party itself has been consumed by internal fights leading up to the campaign.
Inter-party feuding erupted into public view when a former OBA chairman, Justin Mathias, called out current party leader Jarion Richardson for supporting an election despite not yet having candidates for every district. In the op-ed, Mathias announced he was running as an independent for office. Mathiasโs candidacy hurts OBA chances to win back the 25th district; which went for the PLP by just 2% in the 2020 landslide. The attacks by Mathias have not been un-answered by leader Richardson. When the party announced they indeed had candidates for every seat, Richardson stated Mathias โhasnโt been around long enough to know what heโs talking about.โ
This is not the only former OBA figure to run as an independent. Vic Ball was a OBA candidate in the 2020 election, only narrowly losing to PLP member Vance Campbell; who as mentioned before later switched to the OBA itself. Ball and Campbell were supposed to have a primary to decide a nominee for 2025. However, the OBA scheduled it for when Ball would be out of town. When Ball complained, he was expelled from the party. Now he is running as an independent in a different district.
The handling of the candidacy or Kellan Lewis, a story so complicated and sensitive I leave for the curious to read about in the link, has been further seen as an example of amateur mistakes by OBA. In addition, the OBA running former MP Michael Fahy for a district has led to much controversy. Fahy was part of the last OBA government and was a driver of an immigration measure that sparked massive protest at the time. Long story short, but you can read more here, Bermudaโs limited land size makes the issue of residency, citizenship, and land ownership, very contentious and complicated.
The OBA remains a very weak opposition; something PLP critics have been frank in pointing out. This has led to a further push toward independent candidates instead of backing the OBA. The party, in addition to be seeing as a similar โold orderโ party like the PLP, has not run the best campaign.
Free Democratic Movement Party
While the OBA has its struggles, it is still far better positioned that the Free Democratic Movement Party. I discussed the FDM more in my last issue and how it was formed by former PLP members. However, FDM represented the more right-wing side of the party; namely on economics. The Party favors de-regulation as a way to attract more wealth to the islands.
The Party has struggled to really find firm ground and is only contested a handful of seats. Instead, opposition to PLP and OBA is gravitating more toward the slew of independent candidates.
Rise in Independent Candidates
What has been especially notable about this election is the sheer number of candidates that have filed. A total of 27 independent candidates have filed, covering 22 districts. Never before have so many people not affiliated with the longstanding two major parties filed.
This independent jump has been attributed to an old figure in Bermuda politics - John Swan. For those of you who read my substack preview, but especially if you read my detailed article from 2020, will know all about Swan. A former leader of the UBP and Premier of Bermuda from 1982 to 1995, the second Black Premier of Bermuda.
Swan opted to make a comeback to politics when he ran for a bye-election in 2024. The election was triggered when former OBA leader Michael Dunkley opted to resign from his seat and leave politics. Dunkley, one of Bermudaโs richest white residents, oversaw the OBAโs 2017 loss to the PLP and resigned as leader following that. His resignation left open the solid OBA seat, which voted for Dunkley with 60% in the 2020 PLP landslide.
Swan made headlines when he announced he would run in the bye-election as an independent. In his statements, he argued the Westminster System (first past the post party elections to district) was not working for the island.
โIn the Westminster system, the loyalty is to the party, and it should be to the public. I think the time has come now that Bermuda has to really seriously consider, does it want to continue with the system thatโs not working?
Swan, who was 88 at the time, made it clear the campaign was about seeing if the voters were happy with the current status quo of party politics on the island.
The results of the bye-election gave Swan something to be happy with. He did not win, but the results showed there was support for independent candidates.
OBA candidate Robert King got 36.4% of the vote
NPA John Swan got 32.1% of the vote
PLP candidate Lindsay Simmons got 31.5%
The strong showing for Swan led to him declaring a push for independent candidates in the upcoming regular election. Swan himself is again running for District 10.
Then in October of 2024, another special election saw strong independent showings. The race for Sandyโs North (seat 36) saw the PLP hold on with just 36%. Opposition was split, with FDM taking 24%, an independent taking 20% and OBA taking the last 20%. In 2020 the PLP had won this seat with 59%.
As the campaign season began, more and more candidates announced they would run as independents. The message from these candidates can be best summed up as โbreak up the status quo.โ Backers of the push have argued that the current system has led to two parties only concerned with wins and not good policy.
While some of this has been breaks from OBA, far more of these candidacies appear to be formally PLP-aligned individuals. This op-ed by independent candidate Tiffany Paynter sums up the sentiment of many of her contemporaries well. They clearly are folks who would initially have backed PLP, but argue they have lost their way.
Elders who remember when Dame Lois Browne-Evans and other PLP leaders dismantled the two-vote system. A system where landowners had two votes which ensured that the wealthy (and mostly White) kept power in the hands of a few who thought โthey knew bestโ. It was a system designed not just to govern, but to control the poor and hoard wealth.
And yet, here we are, decades later, staring at a new version of the same old game with people who may look like us but in the words of Kendrick Lamar, โThey not like us.โ The landowners of yesterday have become the โsafe seatโ holders of todayโentrenched politicians who do not need to keep their word or earn the peopleโs trust because party politics guarantees them unchecked power.
Some PLP defectors have argued that forcing the PLP into a coalition government with independent candidates is the best option for the country. In some cases, it appears to be more about holding the PLP to the fire to do good, rather than a full rejection of the party itself.
Opposition Unity
The one big issue for those who want to hold the PLP to the fire is that opposition is clearly divided. All districts have an OBA candidate, 23 had an independent candidate as well. Meanwhile, FDM contested 10 districts, 5 of which also had an NPA candidate. Thee-way and four-way races were definitely what could help the PLP. The full list of candidates in all seats can be seen here.
Efforts to unify opposition in races were hit and miss. One social organization that formed, the Emperial Group, aimed to unite opposition candidates. In an op-ed, they laid out challenges that emerged as each opposition candidate saw themselves as best suited to take on the PLP.
โWhile the Vote for Unity campaign has been widely embraced as a practical, wise, and intelligent approach, it has been anticipated that the execution would be challenging due to conflicting egos and mistrust. Emperial Groupโs interactions with the combined opposition have confirmed this reality. Despite their shared objective of removing the PLP, internal divisions and individual ambitions continue to hinder collaboration.
The Emperial Group wound up releasing their own list of endorsed candidates, which is listed in the op-ed. The endorsements included a OBA, FDM, and independent candidates.
Final Campaign Notes
It is clear that the PLP has near lock to retain control of the legislative chamber. Experts on elections in Bermuda believe the PLP will lose seats but retain a majority. Concerns about splits in the opposition field remain, as well as PLP having strong support in a large number of districts. Swings will need to come in marginal seats, and will mean little if they come in seats already heavy PLP.
The Election Results
As results trickled in on election night, it was clear that the PLP was destined to indeed secure another majority in the Bermuda legislature. However, it was also clear from the early results that the party was going to see a major drop in support. The final results showed the PLP down 5 seats from 2020 and getting just 49.6% of the vote. Independent candidates surged to 10% of the vote; though they flipped no seats.
You can see the full results in this list here, and the map below.
The OBA took 5 additional seats from 2020; though one of these was party-switcher Vance Campbell being re-elected in his own right. These gains came as the OBA only improved by 4% territory wide.
The PLP saw a massive drop in popular vote support thanks to the rise in independent votes. The share of voters casting ballots for neither of the two major parties reached a new height of 13.5%.
The independent/FDM totals by district can be seen below. In several districts, over 30% of the vote went to โother candidates.โ However, thanks to divided opposition, no FDM or independent candidate could secure a seat.
The divided opposition effects can be seen in a handful of highlighted districts
District 36: Cire Bean got the highest share of the vote for an independent: 31%.
However, with FDM taking 10% and OBA taking 16%, the PLP won with just 42%.
District 32: FDM leader Marc Bean secured 32%, the most for his party.
However with OBA taking 21%, the PLP won with 46%
While the results did not give the independents any seats, it still was a clear message of dissatisfaction. The PLP lost ground across every district. In some cases the OBA also lost ground, but they largely made modest gains. The โotherโ vote was up almost everywhere. Below is a table of districts that had a non-PLP/OBA candidate filed; and excluding three districts unopposed in 2020. The comparison from 5 years ago shows only one district saw โotherโ votes drop.
The PLP secured their majority in the parliament. However, they now been given a clear warning by the public. Just over a majority voted against the ruling party. At the district level, 18 seats gave the PLP over a majority while 18 did not. The PLP hence has 7 districts that they did not receive a majority of the vote in
If the PLP had wound up with only 18 seats, theyโd have needed someone to coalition with to control the chamber. Right now the benefitted from split opposition.
Many PLP critics have been disheartened by the results. John Swan, whoโs independent bid kicked off the push, secured 22% of the vote in district 10. His presence in the race led to OBA winning the seat with just 40%; narrowly ahead of the PLPโs 38%. Swan lamented that voters had stuck with โthe status quo.โ However, as I see it, the PLP has been given a warning by the voters. How they govern over the next five years will determine if they can rebuild trust with voters that have left their side or not.
Premier David Burt has long planned to step down late in 2026, so the PLP will go into the next elections with a new leader. The big question for the anti-PLP crowd is how to approach the next elections. As detailed here, the presence of OBA and independents on the same ballots was a fatal mistake. The opposition must come to some sort of agreement on targeting different seats without splitting the vote.
Iโve compared the PLP to the ANC in South Africa. The big difference, and benefit, for the PLP is that Bermuda uses First-Past-the-Post voting; unlikely South Africaโs proportional representation. The PLP can lose more territory-wide ground and still secure governing majorities if the opposition is divided.
For now, the PLP maintains control of Bermuda, as they have for most of the last 30 years. Whether they can keep that going depends on if they take heed to the warning voters clearly gave them, and if opposition leaders can be more tactical in the next election.