Issue #228: South Africa's Politics and the Legacy of Apartheid

The question of land

Recently, Donald Trump announced that he was cutting off aid to South Africa. In his announcement, Trump claimed that South Africa was discriminating against the white farmer of the country. This stems from a law recently passed in South Africa that lays out procedures for the government seizing and redistributing commercial farmland; namely land not used or underused currently. The law is meant to address lingering issues revolving from the fall of the Apartheid government three decades back. The issue has been weaponized by right-wing figures who make insane and nonsensical claims of a “white genocide”. With Apartheid star child Elon Musk currently controlling Trump like a puppet, this latest line of attack is no shock.

For this article, I’m going to try and offer a succinct summary of past events and the recent political dynamic in South Africa through their election last year. Lets look at that’s really going on in South Africa and why there is a fight over land.

The End of Apartheid

If people know one thing about South Africa, they know it was once under a system called Apartheid. Until 1994, the nation, despite being vast majority Black, was ruled by a white minority that capped out at 20%. The system was legal segregation that prevented Black voting and Black advancement in the economy. The white population horded resources and power; with violence and intimidation often used to suppress any reform efforts. A solid summary of events is here in just 3 minutes.

The timeline of the end of Apartheid is very complex and I am summarizing a good deal here. For more info on this time…

• Check the opening section to my election preview from last year.

• The excellent documentary Miracle Rising is also available here on youtube.

It was longstanding international and internal pressures that led to the end of apartheid. Economic sanctions and isolations were hurting the nation; and violence both from resistance and state forces internally made the dynamic untenable. The key figures in the final push for Democratic rule was President F. W. de Klerk, a white reformer, and Nelson Mandela, a longtime freedom fighter. Negotiations between these men and their allies were tough at times, but slowly forged a path to true democracy.

The negotiations to end apartheid was met with protest and resistance from far-right landowners and white militants. These people were led by Eugene Terre Blanche, who led the Afrikaner Resistance Movement and even violently stormed a meeting of the multi-party negotiations taking place in 1993. When Apartheid ended, many right-wing whites fled the country; with the Afrikaner population going from 5.3 million in 1994 to 4.4 million in 1996.

Meanwhile, the Black push to end apartheid had a divide. On one side was Nelson Mandela and his African National Party. On the other was Mangosuthu Buthelezi, a former ANC official and a Zulu Prince, who led the Inkatha Freedom Party. The Zulu are tribe with a long history and still with a Royal Family today within the broader South African nation. Buthelezi had a cozy relationship with the white apartheid leaders. His backers would off and on violently clash with ANC supports. It was only at the last minute did the IFP agree to stand for democratic elections.

In the end, an agreement was reached for elections to be held in 1994 and with the pledge of a unity government for the first five years afterward. Everyone knew the ANC would easily win the election; the goal was to ensure a smooth transfer of power. Additional pledges that longtime civil servants would not be summarily dismissed calmed white fears and hurt far-right recruiting efforts. This also prevented from South Africa having a brain drain as folks with experience flee and no one with the same experience can replace them immediately.

As expected, the ANC would crush the election, with Mandela becoming President. The ANC has ruled South African ever since.

The Legacy of Apartheid

The effect and legacy of apartheid is still clearly felt in South Africa.

Today, South Africa is 81% Black, 8% white, 8% “Coloured” (multi-racial), and 3% Asian. The geographic divide among racial communities is striking; with the Coloured population heavily clustered in the West Cape and Black population heavy in the east. White voters dot across rural farm areas, the largest city of Johannesburg, and the Cape.

While legal apartheid is gone, its legacy remains. The economic inequality that was pushed by the white ruling minority pre-1994 still persists today; namely in the way of land allocation. Thanks to the apartheid system, over 70% of the farming land is still owned by the white population.

An important note here: When Mandela came to power in 1994, he promised to redistribute 30% of the land to the black majority. However, to this day only 10% has been reallocated. So when we talk about land redistribution, we are not talking a new concept, we are talking about something Mandela campaigned on back in 1994.

Many of the current white landowners regard the property as there’s and claim punishing them for the sins of the ancestors isn’t fair. However, the imbalance of land/people is unsustainable long term; and only grows resentment.

That resentment is easy to imagine when we look at the statistics. Generations-long economic control has resulted in too little economic mobility among the Black majority. As a result, the legalized poverty of apartheid has become informal. These major data points really stand out

• 20% of Black residents don’t have access to proper housing - instead forced to resident in shack cities that often reside outside major cities.

  • This is also true for 7% of Coloured

  • This is a basic non-issue with White and Asian residents, with less than 1% having a similar problem

• 12% of Black residents don’t have access to electricity vs 1% among Whites

• The Grade School system retains racial disparities. Schools in poor black areas have far weaker amenities than schools in the predominantly white areas, which are also higher income. Conditions in rural Black schools often fall well below even standards.

  • As a result of these early education access issues, only 10% of the Black or Coloured population make it to college. It’s around 40% for White and 30% for Asian.

• In 2024, with 33% of the nation unemployed, that was 40% for Black residents and under 8% for White.

• Black residents make up 80% of the employment force but just 17% of management jobs.

The effect of Apartheid still dominates economic and social life in the country. However, the ANC’s failure to more aggressively address these issues cannot be discounted. While apartheid’s system led to most of the inequality in the nation, the ruling party has had a mixed record on pushing the needed reforms. Issues of corruption and self-interest have increased in the years sense Mandela retired from public life. As such, the ANC has seen its election support slowly decline with time. In the 2019 national election, they secured just 57%, their lowest yet. Then in 2021 local elections, the ANC fell under 50% of the vote for the first time.

The 2024 Election Campaign

The election in 2024 was very much centered around South Africa’s struggling economy and the inequality around it. In addition to economic struggles, crime was a major concern for voters. Thanks to the economic struggles, crime has spiked since the end of COVID. Things like car jackings and robbery were up drastically. Meanwhile the nation had the 3rd highest murder-per-capita rate in the world. The nations struggles were laid squarely at the foot of the ruling ANC.

The 2024 election was seen as the most likely chance for the ANC falling below 50% of the vote. Thanks to the nations proportional representation system, this would mean a possible loss of absolute power.

Major Parties in the Election

Of course the big guy in the room is the African National Congress. Its support remains strongest with older Black voters that associate it with Mandela and the fight for Democracy. For years the ANC consumed by a feud between two major figures in the party. On one side is Jacob Zuma, who was President from 2009 to 2018, and on the other is current President Cyril Ramaphosa. Zuma represented the more left-wing side of the ANC and was the nation’s first Zulu leader. Ramaphosa was Mandela’s originally named successor and hails from the more moderate wing. In 2018, Ramaphosa won control of the party and succeeded Zuma as President of South Africa; then going on to win the 2019 elections.

Zuma is a very divisive figure nationally. In addition to corruption issues that plague him, he’s taken on divisive nationalistic rhetoric to keep his career afloat. He has a 60% unfavourability to just 29% approval. Zuma eventually broke away from the ANC and took control of the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK) to contest the 2024 elections. MK is strongest with the Zulu people and with younger Black voters. While Zuma pushes left wing economics, the party also takes on more socially conservative positions; including repealing same-sex marriage.

Meanwhile, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) is also a breakaway from the ANC, they broadly claim left-wing ideology and are strongest with young Black voters who are disenchanted with the ANC. Their leader is Julius Malema, who runs on an explicitly anti-white sentiment. Malema has made anti-Semitic, anti-Asian, homophobic, and anti-white statements over a long career. He is a fan of former dictator Robert Mugabe and favors the forceful seizure of land. Malema has been charged with inciting violence multiple times. While often hailed by right-wingers are proof of the peril of white South Africans, Malema is personally very unpopular; with a 54% disapproval and 25% approval. He is truly a racist figure in the country against anything not South African Black.

Next up is the Democratic Alliance (DA) - the longtime largest opposition party. It is the successor to F. W. de Klerk’s National Party, picking up that mantel around 2004. DA is strongest with white, Coloured, and Asian voters and is strongest around West Cape. The party has also support from Black voters in urban and suburban communities, but has little support in the rural Black population.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) is the traditional party of the Zulu people, who are concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal. A onetime greater force in South African politics, their influence has waned. It suffered a split in support in 2019, which has not healed thanks to the rise of the MK Party and Zuma as a Zulu leader.

Next, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) saw a spike in support not seen in previous cycles. The party framed itself as the party of the Coloured population. The party took hardline immigration positions; including border walls and severely limiting work visas. They would also back universal healthcare but also want national service requirements for economic aid. They were an unique mix of ideologies but are best known for their immigration pushes - namely arguing immigration hurts wages and job opportunity for coloured residents.

Finally, the Freedom Front Plus (FFP) exists to protect the land of white landowners. After getting under 1% for many years, the party jumped to 2.4% in 2019, their best showing since 1994. The party runs on protecting the white land owners from redistribution policies. They are strongest in the areas with rural white land owners who are otherwise in heavily Black communities.

Many expected this campaign would bring the end to the ANC majority. The question as how much would they fall.

The Election Results

What many expected did come to pass. The May 29th election saw the African National Congress fall below 50% for the first time. They secured just 40% of the vote, well down from their 57% in 2019. Despite this, they were still easily the largest party. The results my municipality are below.

The ANC lost ground in several major province in the state. The biggest source for ANC fall was the presence of MK. All the other parties only saw modest movement in any province. The Democratic Alliance retained its spot at the number 2 party in the country. Meanwhile, Zuma’s new party, MK, shot right to 3rd place, doing strongest in the Zulu heavy province of Kwazulu-Natal. The EFF, meanwhile, fell to 4th and won no towns.

With the popular vote results, there was no doubt the ANC would not have a majority of seats in the legislature. The final seat breakdowns can be seen below. Seats were allocated based on national results and regional results. The ANC was under a majority for both the national list and regional lists.

Like previous years, The Democratic Alliance was strongest in the Western Cape and up in Gauteng (the province of Johannesburg). Support from increasing Asian populations along coastal communities further north also show up on the map. Their support within the rural lands remains minimal, however.

MK, meanwhile, was heavily confined to the Kwazulu-Natal region of the country. Zuma was able to get many Zulu voters into the MK camp. However, Zuma’s lack of broad national support is felt clearly by the lack of cracking 5% in most of the country.

The presence of MK definitely hurt the EFF’s potential for growth. They fell to under 10%. Their support was, like last time, centered in rural Black communities. Only in the province of North West did they even crack 15%. Malema’s leadership of the party continues to drag it down.

The IFP remains confined to just a handful of municipalities in Kwazulu-Natal. MK prevented them from re-consolidating support that they lost in 2019.

The growth of Patriotic Alliance was honestly the big standout. Their support is concentrated heavily around where the Coloured population is located - strongest in Western Cape and Northern Cape.

The finally we have the Freedom Front Plus, which got just 1.4%, down from 2.4% in 2019. They barely cracked 5% in most municipalities and their support was, like before, based on backing from rural white land owners.

With no party securing a majority, coalition talks began.

The Forming of a National Coalition

The ANC said that it wanted to form a government of national unity. Different negotiation pairings occurred over the next several days. Many smaller parties decried any call for an alliance of the ANC with the EFF or MK. Both Zuma and Malema seen as too controversial by many.

Then on June 14th, a coalition was announced between the ANC, DA, IFP, and PA!

Cyril Ramaphosa was backed to remain President. The ANC named the Speaker of the parliament, and DA got the vice-Speaker post. Smaller parties got a handful of cabinet posts. The initial coalition represented right around 68% of the votes cast in the South African election. A map of municipalities by share of the vote for the coalition can be seen below.

Both MK and EFF would remain the main sources of opposition in the South African Parliament. A handful of other parties, each holding just a couple seats, would also join the national unity government. Zuma and Malema continue to throw jabs and barbs from the outside of power.

Reform vs Revolution

The ANC survived the lasted electoral test, but now it and its coalition partners must govern. The land bill recently passed is aimed to mainly focus on unused land - often land in the hands of absentee white landlords. This is not some sort of “kick farmer Joe of his acre plot.” This is a focus on LARGE estates. Many are so badly used that the contribute little or nothing to the nation’s GDP. Meanwhile a third of the nation is unemployed. This, regardless of anything else, is bad resource management. The bill in question would address some of that. Also, this is hardly a major revolutionary piece of legislation, with many limits and also broadly reinforcing powers the state already has.

The unjust system of Apartheid left a very lopsided economic dynamic that cannot sustain itself. Whether this law will do what is needed, I cannot say for sure. However, you have also seen that other politicians in that 2024 campaign took on much more nationalistic messaging. The right-wing that loves to push the “white genocide” myth about South Africa will often site Julius Malema and his disgusting views. However, he remains a fringe political figure.

If anyone in the American right-wing actually gives a damn abut white Afrikaners, they they better embrace the ANC continuing to rule. I don’t think they’d like to see what a coalition of MK and the EFF looks like. The ANC wants to make much-needed changes with the signing of legislation. People like Malema want to do it at the end of a machete.

You have pick one or the other.