Issue #230: Why Ukraine Cannot Hold Elections Right Now

And why delay is the correct decision

In recent days, Donald Trump has leveled a series of attacks on Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In addition to false claims that the war was started by Ukraine, Trump has attacked Zelenskyy for not holding elections; calling him a dictator.

I am working on a much more detailed article about all the attacks and the status of the Ukraine war. However, for this piece, I wanted to focus exclusively on the issue of elections in Ukraine. While I firmly believe Trump and his followers are using the election attack as a false reason to stop aiding the country, I know many citizens do question this issue. Election delays are always a subject of controversy and suspicion. Therefore, I want to offer a basic layout of the situation, how it compares to other times in history, and the argument backing the election delays.

Lets dive in.

The Push for Elections

With the election of Donald Trump in 2024, it was widely expected that America would begin to move away from helping Ukraine. Trump, who remains clearly enamored with Vladimir Putin, has pushed for harsher terms on Ukraine to keep US support. In addition to mineral rights agreements and conceding land to Russia, Trump has said Ukraine must hold elections. This has parroted calls from Putin as well.

When Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushed back on Trump, saying he was being sucked into a Russian “disinformation space”, Trump lashed out in response. He said Zelenskyy was a “dictator without elections” and claimed Zelenskyy only had a 4% approval rating. The attacks were a stunning moment, with the United States government attacking a fellow Democracy that stood at war with an authoritarian nation.

Of course my stance is Trump, a man I’ve called fundamentally evil on several occasions, is simply trying to forge a closer relationship with Putin. Trump does not care about Ukraine holding elections. He pushes elections because Russia wants Ukraine to hold elections. So many of you reading this and go…

“wait why does Russia want elections for Ukraine?”

or most likely

“well wait, why isn’t Ukraine having regular elections?”

For those of you truly curious, I want to lay out the facts on the ground. I am a firm believer in the election delay currently going on. This article will lay out my reasoning and look at some historic precedents.

Elections in Ukraine

First lets look at the current situation in Ukraine. The Russian invasion of the country is now hitting its 3rd anniversary, far longer than the few days Vladimir Putin expected it would take for the war to be won. While Russia maintains firm control of much of the eastern border provinces, Ukraine has taken back a large amount of land, which is blue in the map below.

A more detailed look at the war and my thoughts on the situation can be read below in my 2 year anniversary piece.

Special Issue: Two Years After the Invasion of Ukraine

I was and remain a firm defender of the Ukrainian cause and the war effort. The fight is between Democracy and Autocracy; and with that, lets talk about Ukraine Democracy.

Ukraine has been voting in free elections since the end of the Soviet Union. They held their first Presidential Election in 1991. Elections are considered broadly free and fair; getting more clean as the 1990s went into the 2000s. Famously, when Russia tried to manipulate the 2004 Presidential Election, public protest led to a new vote being ordered. The re-vote and election, known as the Orange Revolution, saw a Russian-critic Viktor Yushchenko elected President.

With the ousting of Russian-backed President Viktor Yanukovych in 2013, known as the Euromaidan revolution, the war for Ukraine began its first real phase. In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean province and subsequently has backed Russian separatist efforts in the east. The eastern towns have the highest Russian-speaking populations.

However, Russia’s claim of “protecting” ethnic Russians does not hold up to scrutiny. Especially as Russia now aims to take all of Ukraine despite most of it not ethnically Russian. Claims of mistreatment of ethnic Russians is also parroted in Russian and far-right press; which is not based in reality.

As Western governments did little to aid Ukraine in 2014, the nation forged ahead with elections in the territory they controlled. In May of 2014, Ukraine elected Petro Poroshenko in the first round of voting; meaning no runoff was needed.

Then in 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy emerged as an outsider candidate for President. A famous actor in the country, Zelenskyy capitalized on dissatisfaction with the longtime elites of the nation. In the first round of voting, Zelenskyy got 30%; with Incumbent Poroshenko getting just 16%.

The runoff proved to be decisive, with Zelenskyy winning the Presidency with 73% of the vote. He lost only the L’viv province and was especially strong in the eastern half of the nation.

Zelenskyy’s election is firm confirmation about the legitimacy of elections in the nation. An incumbent President was ousted and power transferred peacefully.

Three years into Zelenskyy’s Presidency, Russian invaded the nation. In the initial day of the invasion, the risk of the capital, Kyiv, being taken was very real. Famously, when offered to be escorted out of the capital and to the western portion of the country, Zelenskyy replied

"I don't need a ride, I need more ammunition."

Through the course of the war, we have seen Zelenskyy rise to the challenge of the invasion. A man that was an actor before entering the Presidency, Putin likely suspected Zelenskyy was weak and would flee amid threats. Instead, Zelenskyy has remained a firm defender of his nation. Through his efforts, and in a way similar to Abraham Lincoln amid the civil war, Zelenskyy has rapidly aged amid the stress.

I discussed this more in my 2 year anniversary peace, but the fact Zelenskyy stayed and fought deserves more credit than he gets. Had Russia taken the capital, which they were very close to in the first days of the invasion, Zelenskyy almost surely would have been killed. Meanwhile, when Afghanistan was overrun by the Taliban in 2021, President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. Zelenskyy opted to live and die with his people. He is the leader any nation would want. Don’t think for a second Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin would do the same thing.

Zelenskyy’s Presidential term was initially set to expire in 2024. However, the invasion by Russia triggered Martial law in the country and the hold off on elections. This has been broadly supported in Ukraine but has now become a line of attack elsewhere. So lets discuss WHY this Democracy is not holding elections right now and why that is the right decision.

The Case Against Elections

The reality of holding elections in Ukraine during the war is best summed up by the title of a 2023 article from Foreignpolicy.com - “Wartime Elections in Ukraine are Impossible.” Even before the latest lines of attack, people have been predicting that the 2024 elections would need to be held off if the war was still ongoing.

There are issues for Ukraine holding elections both legally and practically. Its been pointed out that per Ukrainian law, elections cannot be held during Martial Law; which has been ongoing since the invasion. This policy is in broad agreement across much of Ukraine’s political spectrum. But legal hurdles aside, sure changes to laws could be made, the practical reasons against election are numerous.

This piece from the Guardian sums the consensus of experts up best.

The disruption from air raids has made organization and vote counting impossible, as well as bringing obvious risks if large numbers have to congregate at polling stations. Voters in the eastern areas worst affected by the war – or occupied – would be disenfranchised against those living in the west. After mass internal displacement and many people leaving the country altogether, there is no system in place for absentee voting and no recent update to the national voter registry. And any resources spent on resolving these issues are taken away from the country’s defense.

The fact is, the war is not limited to the current front lines of battle. This is an era of aerial warfare and Ukraine remains constantly under the threat of air raids. In fact, you can see here how much of the country can be under air raid warnings.

There is a live map of warnings you can check at any time.

You can easily imagine that polling sites and voter tabulations would be subject to the risk of bombardment of attack. Even if an election occurred as part of a ceasefire, there would be ZERO reason for Ukraine to trust it would be adhered to. “Lone wolf” attacks could replace direct warfare.

The country organizing the logistics of a mail-in election; which would need to include people currently refugees outside the nation, are practically impossible in the current state of things. As the guardian pointed out, the cost and planning is just not there. Any attempt at this would likely involve massive investment and aid from European Union member states; something Russia would never agree too. I will get back to that in a moment. As also pointed out, the current voter registry is a mess. There are so many steps needed to make a true fair and free election.

The logistical nightmare and risk to life seems especially unnecessary when the Ukrainian public broadly support the hold-off on voting. Polling last year showed over 70% of Ukrainian’s wanting elections to only occur after the end of the war. In addition, contrary to Trump’s claim, Zelenskyy remains broadly popular. His approval stands at 57%. Zelenskyy is notably more popular in Ukraine than Trump is in America.

If Zelenskyy were facing clear popular opposition, with voters demanding the chance to flex their voice as a referendum on the war, this debate would be very different. There is no logic in other nations forcing Ukraine to make a decision about when it votes when the public appear to broadly say “no thanks we are good right now.”

So if Ukraine is content with its current political dynamic, why is America pushing for elections? The answer is Russia wants elections. So lets see why.

Why Russia Wants Elections

As I mentioned before, Trump pushing the election talking point is puppeting what Putin has said. Russia’s position has also been that Zelenskyy is a dictator. Of course, this is a rich claim considering Russia is not what any reasonable person would call a Democracy. I will be discussing that dynamic much more in my next Ukraine article.

Putin sees elections in Ukraine as an opportunity to pressure and intimidate the vote to install a Russian-sympathetic President. He believes that the pressure of war would aid this effort. With Russia taking many efforts to manipulate votes in neighboring nations, including bribery, misinformation, and intimidation, its widely expected that would occur in Ukraine. We saw Russia interfere with Moldova’s referendum on the EU last October; with Russian oligarchs pumping in money to try and bribe voters. The Romanian Presidential Election has been thrown into chaos by Russian meddling. Also as pointed out earlier, Russia was involved in trying to rig the 2004 Ukraine Presidential election.

Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick was quick to point out Russia’s ulterior motives

Putin is now asking for a new election in Ukraine, conducted in a specific manner that he can influence, so that he can install his puppet and accomplish that which he couldn’t militarily. Nice try, Vladimir. Try holding a free and fair election in your own country first without imprisoning your opponents.

The idea a Ukraine 2025 election would be free of Russian pressure is a fantasy. They want to install a more peace-minded candidate. This would be comparable to the 1864 United States election. The re-election of Lincoln saw him face the Democrat ticket of George B. McClellan and George Pendleton. This ticket was very much aimed at negotiating a peace with the confederacy. Confederates were praying for a McClellan win. Of course, Lincoln won, despite famously believing he had no chance of victory in the months leading to the vote. Successes on the battlefield secured Lincoln’s victory.

While the confederates wished for a McClellan win, Russia clearly would be wishing for a similar “peace candidate.” Of course, there is no guarantee Russia would get what it wanted. As noted, Zelenskyy remains broadly popular and there does not appear to be a major drive for a candidate that will concede territory. Its been pointed out, as you can see here, that Zelenskyy could have organized an election that would have limited turnout and less safeguards to ensure fair voting. The reality is, a President amid war could demand an election and use the war as way to secure an easy victory. Zelenskyy would be the strongest in an election right now, not after peace. Just ask Churchill, who lost the first UK election after WWII. Zelenskyy is not holding off on elections to extend his time in power. In reality, he could force and election and likely win it in the name of continuing the war effort.

On top of this, if an election was forced, likely rivals to Zelenskyy could opt to not run and let him maintain the office through the war. Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, for example, has said he intends to run in the next election, whenever it occurs. However, Poroshenko has rejected holding on election amid war…..

“Do you know what elections in Ukraine mean right now? The destruction of unity,” said Poroshenko. “Elections are always a struggle, and there can be no unity during elections. Every democracy understands that.”

A scenario where, in the name of unity, most major candidates don’t run, is entirely possible. Any election would likely be Zelenskyy vs whatever Russian-friendly candidate opts to run. Zelenskyy would almost surely win, but voters would be put at risk, resources not available would be spent, and Russia would still try and intimidate and manipulate the vote. It would be nothing but a massive drain on Ukraine resources for an result unlikely to change leaders.

Russia has clear ulterior motives in wanting elections. However, Putin has shown again and again that he does not understand Ukrainian resolve.

Historic Precedent for Delay

Now, I mentioned the US still holding elections in 1864. This has been cited by as a question about why Ukraine isn’t voting. Now of course the big difference is that in 1864 we didn’t have plains - and the confederacy could not bomb polling sites in New York. I’d argue comparing 1864 to 2025 is not fair. However, regardless of that, there is plenty of precedent for election delays.

Of course, the most famous example of election delays is the United Kingdom. Between 1935 and 1945, the UK did not hold elections for its parliament. Instead, the country operated under a unity government between the Tories and Labour Party. It was only after victory in Europe was secured did elections get called. For the United Kingdom, delaying elections was a logical move. The nation was under the risk of invasion and aerial attack for several years. Even after the “Battle for Britain” was won in 1940-1941, the nation was severely damaged, depleted of money, and now in an effort to retake the European continent from the Axis powers. Holding elections in 1942 or 1943 was unthinkable.

As late as 2020, we have seen elections delayed. In America, a total of 16 US States delayed their primary elections due to the COVID pandemic. These delays were largely a few months so that the virus could end, and when that didn’t happen, so that changes to procedures could begin. States that did not delay voting, like Wisconsin, saw massive issues with infrastructure, staffing, and terrible turnout as a result. I wrote about how limited polling sites in Milwaukee led to a major turnout issues for their April primaries and Supreme Court race. Such a turnout issue would ABSOLUTELY be a factor in a Ukraine election. Its impossible to believe there would be as many polling sites as there were in 2019.

We don’t even need to look at COVID for an example when disease delayed an election. In 1822 in the Florida territory, a Yellow Fever outbreak led to a delay in the election for territorial delegate. With Yellow Fever ravaging the region, including killing one of the territories early political leaders, the appointed legislature of the territory opted to move elections till the 1823; a full year away. I wrote all about that here.

Final Thoughts

An election delay is rightfully something that should only occur when absolutely needed. Delays are not always for legitimate reasons. See my write-up on the delay of Hong Kong’s elections in 2020. I do not endorse the delay of an election lightly. However, Ukraine absolutely has precedent, and their reasoning is sound.

Ukraine and its people have the right to set their own course. It is the moral duty of all who believe in Democracy to defend them. The elections in Ukraine won’t happen this year. However, I promise you this, when they occur they will be fair fairer than any of the “elections” that happen in Russia.