Issue #182: South Africa Election Preview: The ANC Faces its Greatest Test

Most unpredictable elections since the end of Apartheid

Today, voters in South Africa are going to the polls for its national parliament. This is a monumental election for the nation, as polls project that the African National Congress Party is expected to fail at securing a majority for the first time post-Apartheid. The ANC, once led by Nelson Mandela, has ruled Africa since the first free elections in 1994, but increasing corruption scandals and a cost of living crisis have led to continued decline for the ANC. This is something I covered way back in Issue 7 of my newsletter series.

That issue covers a series of riots that took place in 2021 and delves into the political personalities and tensions within the nation. Some of those items I will cover again here, but for even more information on South Africa’s current tension, I recommend that piece.

This preview will touch on the main issues around the election, some short history, and what we can expect from the elections. I’m going to be radically summarizing important historic points that shape politics today. I will be linking to more sources for more information.

A “Short” History of South Africa & Apartheid

If you know anything about South Africa, you know about its history with Apartheid. The nation, like much of Africa, was colonized by European powers in the 1700s and 1800s. This process started with Dutch traders who would eventually conquer what is now Cape Town and the Cape of Good Hope. These Dutch settlers would be known as “Boers” - a phrase that still caries a great deal of weight and controversy in modern South African politics. The Dutch settlements were eventually taken by the British, which saw wars between the two groups of white settlers as they fought over who got to suppress the native black population. Ahhhh colonialism.

European expansions continued further inland, with countless conflicts taking place with the native peoples, who were coming from multiple different ethnic and language groups. An excellent mini-history of this can be found in the video below.

European rule eventually gave way to the formal segregation system known as “Apartheid” - which formalized segregation and ensured white rule of South Africa. The policies meant that the country’s 10% white population would rule the entire nation. These white residents, who by the modern 20th century were largely the descendants of colonizing forces from decades back, refer to themselves as Afrikaners.

Apartheid led to international condemnation and a long history of violence. The white-controlled state would violently suppress democracy movements. This violence would be met with violence from activists and protestors as well. The path to democracy is covered excellently in this History Channel documentary, which is up on Youtube in full. The negotiations not only between black and white leaders, but internal negotiations cannot be over-looked.

The documentary delves into two important divisions.

Within white leaders, the division was reform vs status quo. The reform movement was headed by President F. W. de Klerk, who led the white push to end Apartheid and bring about proper Democracy in the nation. On the opposite side were people like Eugene Terre Blanche, who led the Afrikaner Resistance Movement. A vehement racist, he and the AWB actually violently stormed a meeting of the multi-party negotiations taking place in 1993. The AWB would use violence to stop any reforms.

Meanwhile, tension between the African National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom Party became increasingly violent in the 1980s and early 1990s. I’m drastically summarizing history here. But both groups were major players in the United Democratic Front - which was the original organization that fought apartheid. The ANC dominated the anti-apartheid efforts, which led to a power clash with the IFP. The IFP leader was Mangosuthu Buthelezi, a former ANC official and a Zulu Prince. The Zulu were a tribe with a long history and still with a Royal Family today within the broader South African nation. This map of the concentration of the Zulu language people can be seen here.

As the 1980s went on, Buthelezi had a complex but notably cozy relationship with the white apartheid leaders. He was a major advocate against economic sanctions to force the end of apartheid. His desire for control and influence, much of it propped up by the Apartheid government, made him an uneasy partner in efforts to end Apartheid. Trough the 1980s and 1990s there were violent clashes with ANC and IFP supports, often carried out with the white police doing nothing to stop it. One harrowing account of violence can be seen here. The ANC accused the Apartheid government of training and encourage IFP attacks to weaken the more powerful ANC; accusations with some series merit. Again I cannot recommend the above documentary enough to get more details on a very complicated situation.

Violent clashes on all sides aside, negotiations continued. Efforts to end Apartheid hit a major milestone when the White voters of South Afrika approved of the negotiations in a 1992 referendum. A major agreement forged in the negotiations for elections was a power-sharing proposals; originally proposed by Communist Party leader Joe Slovo. The proposal effectively meant that when the free elections brought the ANC to power (as was widely expected), a unity government would form for five years. In South Africa, the parliament elects its President; and that would very likely be Mandela. However, the Vice President would be from the old order. White civic leaders currently in power would also largely get to keep their positions for that unity period. The goal was simple, reduce immediate economic worry from white leaders (that they’d be thrown on the streets) and allow stability post-elections so that the newly-Democracy nation does not see a mass exodus of civil servants. In June of 1993, an election date for April of 1994 was agreed to.

The first elections held in 1994 brought Mandela and the ANC into power. They followed a campaign filled with hope but also filled with plenty of violence and assassinations. White nationalist Afrikaners tried to stop the vote as much as possible. The IFP even originally planned to boycott the vote, but finally agreed just days before the election was held. Even in the final days heading into the campaign, violent intimidation tactics continued. In the end, however, the vote was held from April 26th to April 29th, with 87% turnout. The below map and full details of that election can be seen here. The ANC won across the country, with the exception of the Western Cape, which was won by F. W. de Klerk’s National Party, and KwaZulu-Natal went to the IFP.

The election also marked the leaving of many of the most hardened white Afrikaners from the nation. In 1994 there were 5.2 million Afrikaners. By 1996 it was 4.4 million.

Since then, the ANC has ruled the nation. Nelson Mandela served as President till 1999. However, now 30 years removed from the end of Apartheid, the long-ruling party is facing its biggest challenges yet. South Africa is undoubtedly a success story, having transitioned away from colonial rule far better than many other nations. However, 30 years later, like many nations, South Africa has many bread and butter concerns, and a growing disconnect with the ANC’s ability to handle them.

Modern Political Dynamics

(Note much of this section comes over right from the Issue 7 I linked at the top of this piece)

While South Africa has been hailed for moving out of the apartheid system in the 1990s; making Nelson Mandela a worldwide name, the nation still has its struggles. The country is 77% black, 9% white, 9% “coloured” (multi-racial), and 3% Indian/Asian. After Democracy prevailed, many right-wing whites fled the nation (after a failed right-wing insurrection). Despite the peace that eventually emerged, the nation remains heavily racially segregated.

The economic inequality that was pushed by the white ruling minority pre-1994 still persists today; namely in the way of land allocation. Thanks to the apartheid system, over 70% of the farming land is still owned by the white population. When Mandela came to power in 1994, he promised to redistribute 30% of the land to the black majority. However, to this day only 10% has been reallocated. Many of the current white landowners regard the property as there’s and claim punishing them for the sins of the ancestors isn’t fair. However, the imbalance of land/people is unsustainable long term; and only grows resentment in the young democracy.

Before the 2019 elections, the ANC had already faced internal strife. The tradition has been that the head of the ANC becomes President - with the office of President formally chosen by the General Assembly that the people elect. In the 2009 elections, Jacob Zuma, who hails from the left-wing faction of the ANC, led the party to victory and then became its President.

Zuma remained ANC head through the 2014 elections and was again confirmed as President by the assembly This term, however, was marked by strife. Zuma has long been accused of being corrupt and almost faced ousting multiple times. Things boiled over at the 2017 ANC Party Conference when Cyril Ramaphosa defeated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the President’s ex-wife, for the position of party leader. Zuma had favored his ex-wife for the job, but Ramaphosa’s election marked a repudiation of Zuma. Ramaphosa also hails from a more moderate faction of the party. ANC leaders asked Zuma to resign as President of the nation, which he refused. Facing a likely no confidence vote in the assembly, Zuma finally agreed to resign. Ramaphosa was quickly elected by the assembly as the new President.

Heading into the 2019 election, the ANC faced electoral threats from the right and left. A left-wing party, known as the Economic Freedom Fighters, formed for the 2014 elections and was continuing to gain in strength. The EFF is led by Julius Malema, who was a major backer of Zuma’s rise to the Presidency. Malema is a very controversial figure in South Africa. He favors violent seizer of land, has made routine anti-Asian and anti-Semitic statements, and was a defender of the Robert Mugabe dictatorship in Zimbabwe. Malema was reprimanded by the ANC multiple times and eventually had a falling out with Zuma himself. Malema formed the EFF to be a left-wing counter to the ANC, with the strongest appeal among younger black voters who are less loyal to the ANC. While the ANC was being squeezed on its left, it was likely to lose white, Asian and multi-racial votes to the Democratic Alliance Party, which had been based out of the West Cape for multiple election cycles.

Despite these challenges, the ANC, which still retains a tremendous amount of good will with black South Africans due to its legacy fighting apartheid, easily won the assembly elections with 57% of the vote.

The ANC lived to fight another day.

Continued ANC Decline and Divide

The 2019 results were a “win” - but hardly a strong one. It was the lowest share yet for the ANC in a national election; albeit an improvement from the 2016 local elections. However, just two years later, the ANC would fall to 46% in the local races, the first time the fell under a majority.

The ANC has benefitted from a split in the opposition. The Democratic Alliance Party has taken up the mantel of the now-disbanded National Party, but no party has been able to really directly threaten the ANC. However, public support is clearly waning.

The ANC’s opposition often comes from internal break-aways. The EFF was a break-away, and now another party has emerged. Back when I wrote Issue 7, I was covering riots over the arrest of former President Jacob Zuma for contempt of court after he refused to appear for a litany of corruption charges. Zuma, a longtime figure in South African politics, is very controversial. He is, however, a member of the Zulu ethnicity, and hence has strong support from Zulu and rural voters. In December of 2023, after already stating he would not support the ANC, Zuma joined the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party. The party is standing in the elections this year and Zuma has now taken control of it. He is personally unable to stand for election, however, due to a couple-month jail sentence for that contempt of court charge.

The 2024 Campaign & Parties

The election will be held with a proportional vote system, both on a nationwide list and region-level seat allocations. Everyone expects the ANC to come in first, but if they are under 50%, the chances they have less than half the seats is a real possibility.

The election today is very much centered around South Africa’s struggling economy. For all the different coalitions and bases of support, which I will get into in a moment, the issue of “how to fix the country” is the top concern. This isn’t a shock, as the data out of South Africa is bad. This link has important details, and I recommend if you click 1 link in this post, click that one. In summary though, these are the problems South Africa is facing

• 33% of the nation is unemployed

• A racially divided education system that leaves many black students in underfunded schools and getting little education

• A massive violent crime problem with 75 murders a day and a murder per-capita rate 3rd highest in the world

  • This has led to a massive spike in private security companies

• Still 2.2 million people in sub-standard, largely shack-style, housing.

  • There is a massive racial disparity here. 20% of Black residents live in these shacks, while only 0.3% of whites do.

The ANC is very unpopular and heavy viewed as corrupt. However, the ANC benefits from its history fighting Apartheid and that President Cyril Ramaphosa is the only party leader with a net positive rating; according to this survey with a 45% approval and 39% disapproval. Ramaphosa was Mandela’s preferred successor to lead the ANC in 1999, but lost the leadership bid. He appears to be viewed better than his party; even as 80% of the nation says the country is on the wrong track.

So who is challenging the ANC? Its largely the same faces as before, with the added trickle of Zuma’s new party. I’ll look at the major players and where their support has historically come from. This is also something I delve into more in Issue 7.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), is led by John Steenhuisen. It is largely a party for White, Asian, and many mix-race voters. Its dominant along the the western Cape and also in the capital of Johannesburg. The DA was also strong in the coastal communities of KwaZulu-Natal; where a large number of Indian voters live.

The DA does have Black supporters as well, but it has always been limited in its ability to gain traction with rural Black voters that the ANC still dominates with.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), led by Velenkosini Hlabisa, has been the traditional party of the Zulu people; who have had an uneasy and at time contentious relationship with the ANC and non-Zula Black South Africans.

The IFP are at major risk of seeing their support with the Zulu people be eroded by Jacob Zuma and the MK Party, which I will talk more about further down.

There is the The Economic Freedom Fighters, EFF, led by Julius Malema. They emerged in 2014 as a breakoff from the ANC. They have been most popular with young Black voters who are disenchanted with the ANC. They got 10% in 2019.

The EFF is weighed down by the tonnage of scandals around Julius Malema, who has made anti-Semitic, anti-Asian, homophobic, and legit anti-White sentiment. I also don’t use that phrase lightly, as I know conservatives love to throw it around with no basis. But truly, Malema is insane. He has taken the real issue about the need for land reform and instead embraced a violence policy. The man has been charged with hate speech multiple times and is personally very unpopular; with a 54% disapproval and 25% approval.

Both the EFF and IFP could see Jacob Zuma and the uMkhonto we Sizwe Party (MK) take votes from them. The MK appear to lead in the heavily Zulu provinces right now, while younger left-wing voters could be driven to Zuma since he was part of the ANC’s left flank. The party has adopted left-wing economic policies, but is also socially conservative, advocating for the repeal of Same-Sex marriage. The party is also very nationalistic and takes some of the rhetoric from the EFF. Since the MK party formed, the EFF has seen its polls drop.

Finally, the Freedom Front Plus (FFP), led by Pieter Groenewald, is a party that exists to protect the land of white landowners. After getting under 1% for many years, the party jumped to 2.4% in 2019, their best showing since 1994. The party runs on protecting the white land owners from redistribution policies. They are strongest in the areas with rural white land owners who are otherwise in heavily Black communities.

During the election, several of the parties have formed the Multi-Party Charter, which is lead by the DA, to form a united block against the ANC. The group is made up of many members, full list here, but the major ones are the the DA, the IFP, the FFP, and ActionSA, a party that formed in 2020 and did well in local elections. The goal is to form a united block that can hopefully win government. They warn against an ANC-EFF or ANC-MK coalition. We will see how the final seat allocations shake out before we get into coalition talks.

The ANC knows its in trouble. For them, the goal is to get as close to 50% as possible but right now is hovering in the low 40s in polls with the DA in 2nd with around 20%. MK and EFF both however around 10-12% each, with MK averaging in 3rd.

Even if the ANC fail to secure a majority of the parliament, if they are close then the chances for peeling off small parties is better. If they really drag in the low 40s, then things gets dicey. I don’t want to speculate too much on that, as I am hardly an expert in these personalities. However, this is clearly the most unpredictable election in South Africa since its full democracy came about.

We will see how it goes.