Issue #221: When Party Switching Backfires: The Story of Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda
Short term gain, long term loss
Its New Years Day and we already have our first newsletter out! It is going to be a hectic year and there is no time to waste. Today’s article is follow-up to my issue from a few days ago looking at the party switching happening in Florida. That issue, which you can read here, looked at the cynical politics of State Representatives Susan Valdes and Hillary Cassel switching to the Republican Party. This issue is going to cover the last time a State Representative left the Democratic Party: Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda.
A four-term Representative for Tallahassee from 2008 to 2016, Michelle Vasilinda (MRV for short) broke with her party in 2016 after years of off-and-on squabbles over policy. That year she endorsed Trump and would soon after become a Republican. This article will look at how this switch only served to destroy her legacy and political influence in Tallahassee. A party switch that was followed by a failed mayoral campaign and a complete ghosting by Democrats and Republicans alike.
The story serves as a cautionary tale about the long term effects of not sticking to your values.
Rocky Start and Primary Challenge
Before delving into MRV’s party switch, its a good idea to offer a refresher for those unfamiliar with her tenure. Vasilinda was elected to the state house in 2008; winning a House District 9 that that is similar to today’s district. I documented her first race extensively in my preview of the new HD9 way back in 2022; but I want to go over the basics here. However, go there if you want some general election maps of the races I am about to mention.
In the 2008 election, Michelle Vasilinda, then an attorney and professor at TCC, ran for the open State House 9 seat being vacated by Loranne Ausley. In a very close general election, Vasilinda had to face off against Peter Boulware, a community leader and former FSU football star who went on to play for the Baltimore Ravens. Boulware ran as a moderate Republican who would give the district a voice with the GOP majority in the legislature. Despite the district backing Barack Obama by over 10%, Michelle Vasilinda only bested Boulware by a couple hundred votes.
Shortly after joining the legislature, a riff emerged between Vasilinda and her party. Late in the 2009 legislative session, a Republican bill emerged to authorize the Governor and cabinet to approve oil drilling leases in state waters - up to 3 miles off the coast. Florida for a long time was known for its Environmental conservation, so much so that State Senate Republicans would not even hold a vote on the issue. The fact that the House was debating it at all was a major sea-change in Republican environmental politics. In the House, Vasilinda would not only vote for the bill, being one of just a few Democrats to do so, but she was passionately argue in favor of it. Vasilinda argued it was necessary as a part of energy independence. As the Republicans would say - “drill baby drill.”
The oil drilling drive was the biggest catalyst for Leon Democratic Party Chairman Rick Minor to announce a primary challenge to Vasilinda in the summer of 2009. The primary campaign focused heavily on Vasilinda’s environmental issues - including her opposition to a expanded rail plan. The issue of oil drilling took on a new life in April of 2010 when the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill took place. Rick Minor had environmentalist backing and the endorsement of the National Organization for Women. A reason for that endorsement was his support, and Vasilinda’s opposition to, bringing the Equal Rights Amendment back to the floor in the Florida legislature. MRV had managed to anger several key Democratic constituencies in her short time in the Florida House.
Minor’s challenge to Vasilinda saw him outraise the incumbent in the tail end of 2009, however, Vasilinda would also gave the backing of more outside groups. Broadly speaking, her district was not really the strongest hotbed for progressive challengers. Vasilinda was able to argue that her bipartisan deal-making was a benefit for a district with a large bastion of state employees. This line of thinking, including her story that the oil drilling vote was a “trade” to get renewable energy expansions, gave many Democrats pause on changing members so soon. The Tallahassee Democrat, the main paper of the city, echoed this sentiment and backed Vasilinda for re-nomination.
When the primary came around in August of 2010, Vasilinda easily bested Minor, taking 69% of the vote.
Vasilinda’s win was fairly all-encompassing, holding up well in the moderate upper-suburbs and more progressive communities. For the moment, Vasilinda retained the confidence of Tallahassee Democrats - even as she agitated others.
The primary challenge, which Vasilinda has argued would hurt the eventual winner in a general election, actually benefited her in November. In a general election contest against businesswoman Kirk Headley-Perdue, Vasilinda took 59% of the vote. Vasilinda’s solid win came from moderate credentials that were only boosted from the primary campaign. She also benefitted from Rick Scott, who came in pledging to slash government jobs, doing historically poor in Leon County and the 9th district overall.
Elections for MRV were a much quieter affair after the 2010 races. In 2012, she faced off against Leon Republican Chairman Bradley Maxwell. She’d win that race with 61% of the vote. In 2014, Republicans didn’t bother with a challenger. Instead, Vasilinda faced an open primary against retired teacher Arnitta Grice-Walker. The race was an entirely sleepy affair with Walker having no major line of attack against MRV. In the end, Vasilinda won the open primary with 82% of the vote.
Through these elections, MRV did not generate nearly as much controversy. Her voting record remained broadly liberal. Some notable issues and causes were…
She was a major advocate for ending the death penalty, often filing repeal bills that got no hearings.
In one amendment she got a vote on, which would have cut funding for death penalty procedures in the budget, she was one of just TWO house votes for the measure.
She also took up a years-long pursuit to repeal the state’s archaic law against co-habitation. Rick Scott would eventually sign such a bill into law.
She was a supporter of marijuana legalization and expanding usage of hemp. She even sent lawmakers bottles of hemp-based beer to show its many usage.
She maintained pro-LGBT and pro-choice voting records
Michelle Vasilinda may have ended her house tenure with no controversies - if not for a major debate that emerged over guns.
Guns on Campus Rift
A major shakeup in MRV’s relationship with her district’s voters came in the spring of 2015. State Representative Greg Steube, now a Congressman, introduced HB4005, which would allow people with conceal carry licenses to bring their guns onto college campuses. This bill was not only opposed by universities, but was opposed by law enforcement officials. Vasilinda shocked the city when she backed the bill in committee.
The move was especially shocking because Tallahassee had just dealt with a major shooting at FSU back in November of 2014. On November 20th just after midnight, a deranged man opened fire outside Strozier library, shooting two students and one employee, before being killed by police. While no victim died, one was paralyzed by the shooting. The event shocked FSU and the Tallahassee community.
The decision to back the measure led to immediate anger from Democrats in her district. Vasilinda even got into back and forth with people on Facebook over the issue. The back and forth online was covered in the local press.
In her support for the bill, Vasilinda said that she had been able to fend off a potential sexual assault with her own firearm. This detail is an understandable reason for seeing firearms as a potential solution to the serious issue of sexual assault on campuses. However, assault-prevention groups are largely opposed to these laws, knowing the sad reality that often such weapons can be used against the very owner.
The legislation did not make it out of the 2015 legislative session. However, when it was introduced for 2016 by Rep Steube again, Vasilinda would be a co-sponsor. Committees for the 2016 session began in the fall of 2015, and Vasilinda would be a vocal supporter of the legislation through committees. She took up increasingly animated language, saying she isn’t the type to “cower behind a bookshelf” in the event of a shooting.
“If it is my time to go and somebody is pointing a gun at me I’d just as soon try and get off a shot. That’s who I am. I don’t envision myself waiting for law enforcement to come and rescue me.”
FYI, this attitude is exactly why law enforcement do NOT want guns on campus or in chaotic situations like this. Sheriff and police associations point out the risk of people being hit in crossfire and the inability of law enforcement to know who is the aggressor if a shootout is underway.
The bill would die in the 2016 legislative session once again. State Senator Judiciary Chairman Miguel Díaz de la Portilla refused to schedule a hearing on the bill. Portilla, like several Cuban Republican lawmakers in Miami-Dade, were much more pro-gun control than the rest of the GOP caucus. Some Tallahassee folks quipped if the parties could trade the two members. “Give us DLP and you can have MRV.”
Final Break with the Democratic Party
As the 2016 legislative session wound down, Vasilinda continued to break from the party more and more. This included backing bills for charter school money.
However, things really kicked into high gear in April when she began lightly praising Donald Trump - who’s 2016 candidacy was already a hotbed of racism and sexism. In her comments to voters and the press, she called Trump a fascinating candidate.
"If he becomes a little bit presidential and a little more sedate … I might support him. I like some of his policies. He seems pretty straight-forward."
The Tallahassee Democrat, in this editorial, noted how shocking so much of this had come to Tallahassee voters. Longtime political allies, like Jon Ausman, had nothing positive to say about her latest moves.
"As you know, I've helped her in the past but I think she should seriously consider retiring from politics. As a long time friend and supporter of Michelle, I hope we will still be friends after she reads these remarks, but the Democratic Party is not going to support anyone who is a Trumpette."
Then, just a few weeks of 2016, when the list of who cast ballots in the March Presidential primaries was released, Vasilinda was noted as one of several lawmakers who did not vote in their party’s primary. While several members had a litany of reasons, Vasilinda directly stated she didn’t vote to “protest” the primaries not being open to all voters. This issue of open primaries, something controlled by the Florida government, was never something MRV had brought up before. Her stance was called out by several in the press - noting that it wasn’t until EIGHT WEEKS after the primary that she even addressed the issue.
Vasilinda, meanwhile, continued to break more from the party. After the Pulse Nightclub shooting in June of 2016, Democratic House members tried to force a special session to simply ban people from being able to purchase guns if they were on a federal watch list. When the lawmakers had to vote on whether to go into a special session, Vasilinda voted no.
Then, in September of 2016, Vasilinda announced she was LEAVING the Democratic Party. She was not becoming a Republican, yet, but rather becoming an independent. This was overshadowed just a month later when Vasilinda endorsed Trump while opening for him at a Tallahassee rally.
The Tallahassee rally, btw, came AFTER the Hollywood Access tape had leaked out - the one where Trump had bragged about sexually assaulting women. Vasilinda, who had made sexual assault such a major point of her break on the gun rights issue, gave this no weight as she backed Trump and attacked Clinton.
After the election and inauguration, which had seen the massive Women’s March rally. MRV wrote another op-ed for the paper, stating she was praying for Donald Trump.
Some friends tell me I have tested their love with my public support and vote for President Trump. My feelings are not hurt but I do wince when I hear the words, “He’s not my president.” Those words demonstrate a lack of tolerance and faith in our nation, our constitution, our most fundamental values, our history and our heritage. Those words demonstrate a lack of faith to work through the process of our constitutional government to make change with dignity, grace and respect for fellow Americans.
Vasilinda would do what everyone expected and formally joined the Republican Party in February of 2017. By this point no one was surprised. The sentiment in Tallahassee was that people were just glad she was out of the state house. She was persona-non-grata across most of the city and county.
So what did Vasilinda’s party switching and endorsement of Trump get her in the long term?
The Failed Run for Tallahassee Mayor
After her party switch in 2017, Michelle Vasilinda re-entered the electoral arena with a bid for Tallahassee mayor. At the time, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum was running for Florida Governor and the city was under FBI investigations for pay-play-schemes. Once State Senator Bill Montford made it clear he would not run for the Mayor’s post, several candidates jumped into the race.
Vasilinda had initially begun to make waves about possibly getting in as early as January of 2018. Finally at the end of May, she entered the contest. This would put her in a August Primary with a total of six candidates. By far the most high profile were County Commission John Dailey and Gillum Chief of Staff Dustin Daniels. On the same day as her announcement, Daniels hit Vasilinda for her backing of Trump.
“Though we already disagree on her enthusiastic support of Donald Trump, it is my hope that her ideas are unlike the failed policies of this administration and are instead focused on building a city that works for everyone,”
This was a smart strategy, as Trump was incredibly unpopular in Tallahassee. In the 2016 election, Trump had lost Leon County by 24% and lost Tallahassee by a wider 40% margin. Vasilinda, however, insisted that her constituent work would overcome partisan differences.
“These are people who for eight years in the House I fought very hard for. For their pensions, their pay, their health care, for our community,” she said. “I think there are people who will remember me sweating on the House floor fighting for them. I will continue to do that and we will see how it goes.”
Michelle Vasilinda was very wrong about this sentiment. Through the primary contest, Vasilinda struggled to raise money and was not considered a frontrunner in the contest. John Dailey, a Democratic County commissioner with a moderate image, was the clear frontrunner in the contest, raising well over $100,000 Dustin Daniels, meanwhile, was consolidating Black and some progressive white support and raised over $80,000. Much of the debate revolved around the scandals emerging around Andrew Gillum and if enough liberal-minded Democrats would be willing to back Dailey.
The conversations around Michelle Vasilinda largely just revolved around her party switch and backing of Trump. Dueling op-eds only served to highlight her Trump support and party switch. Something not helpful in such a Democratic city.
Most Tallahassee experts believed Dailey was sure to come in first in August. The question was if Daniels or Vasilinda would get 2nd for a likely runoff. Vasilinda making the runoff seemed entirely contingent on Republican support; which would not be enough for a general.
What was really stunning was how little help Vasilinda got from Republicans. In the contest, she only managed to raised $15,000!!! That is nothing in Tallahassee. Where was the Republican help? MRV had never been a strong fundraiser to begin with, but she had burned all her bridges with Democratic power players and now had Republicans doing nothing to help her. The sentiment on the ground was that many Republicans were gravitating toward Dailey; seeing MRV has having no chance in a runoff and wanting to make sure Daniels did not win.
On August 28th, voters cast their ballots for the mayoral contest. Dailey came in first, as predicted, with a solid 40% of the vote. Daniels was second with 25%. MRV, the four-term state representative, got just 21% of the vote.
This was an absolutely pitiful showing for a longtime state representative. Dailey, as many were beginning to suspect, racked up strong support in the Northside of the city, which is the most Republican areas. Daniels, meanwhile, took the Black community and won several progressive white areas. Vasilinda managed to win just a few precincts, most with less than 100 voters.
Looking at the precincts with the highest share of registered Republicans casting ballots, Dailey won all but one of them. Prominent Republican communities Like Ox Bottom, Killearn Estates, and Summerbook, all gave Dailey double the support they gave Vasilinda.
Vasilinda’s endorsement of Trump did little to inspire Republican loyalty. After all, why would it? MRV’s voting record was still by and large liberal - a few key issues aside. Where conservative really going to back the pro-choice, anti-death penalty, pro-weed former Democrat? Dailey was a Clinton backer, but he was perceived as a steady constant moderate. Michelle Vasilinda if anything came off very unpredictable - something that voters broadly do not like.
The real final blow for Vasilinda was that the same day she lost the Mayoral race, her former primary rival, Rick Minor, had a successful night. After losing to MRV in 2010, Rick Minor remained heavily engaged in Democratic politics. When Dailey announced he was running for Mayor, Rick Minor ran for an one his county commission district. On the same ballot that Vasilinda missed the runoff for Mayor, Minor avoided a runoff for county commission - winning the race outright in August.
This parallel races here to me in perfectly encapsulating the moral of this story. Rick Minor never changed and stayed involved in local politics. He earned voter trust as time went on. Michelle Vasilinda, who had eight years as a State Representative, squandered support on all sides and ended up left in the electoral dust.
No Future with the GOP
The Mayoral run always was doomed for failure. Had Michelle Vasilinda made a runoff, a November victory was always very unlikely. The loss itself was not even the most notable issue - it was how little help she had from the Republican Party she had rushed to join just two years earlier. This was a State House member that opened a rally for Donald Trump. Did any money come? No. Did an tangible real support come? No. Granted, in such a Democratic city, open Republican support would not be helpful. However, support wasn’t even covert. There was no third-party PAC spending money to aid her effort. Nothing.
That Mayoral loss truly marked the end of Michelle Vasilinda has any notable force in the area. Her influence had already been waning, but here it was officially dead. She had lost all her Democratic supporters and the Republicans were already done with her. Her political career basically became this meme,
In 2020, Republicans would opt to make a play at defeating Loranne Ausley in the 2020 State Senate contest. In that race, the first time Republicans ever made a serious effort at flipping the state senate seat, did Republicans turn to Michelle Vasilinda to run for the office? Nope. Instead Republicans ran Marva Preston, a retired police officer in Wakulla County. In 2022, Republicans ran and won with Corey Simon for the state senate seat. Vasilinda was never even mentioned as a possible candidate.
Today, anyone in Tallahassee hardly gives a thought to Michelle Vasilinda. State Representatives from the 1990s are given more thought in a city that LOVES its history. Democrats want nothing to do with her and Republicans don’t need her. She burned all her bridges and is a shadow after once being a major local political player.
Those who switch parties should always ask themselves this question - "If I burn this bridge, how long before my new friends get sick of me too.”