Issue #219: The Political Trends & Cynicism behind Florida's Party Switchers

Bad month for Florida Democrats

December has been a rough month for the Florida Democratic Party. After the 2024 election nightmare, which to be clear occurred across many states, FL Dems have now had deal with TWO members of the House Democratic caucus switching parties.

On December 9th, Democratic State Representative Susan Valdes of HD64 announced she was switching parties and becoming a Republican. Then on December 26th, Democratic State Representative Hillary Cassel of HD101 announced the same party switch. This has brought the Republican margin in the Florida House to a historic 87-33.

Both switches came out of left field. Neither member voted like a conservative and both have long records of attacking Republican policies. Many have viewed these moves as cynically political, driven by promises of influence and power. I share this sentiment. However, these flips also likely don’t happen if the members sit in safe Democratic seats.

The truth is, while both Representatives sat in once-Democratic strongholds, the tide has turned red in both areas. I want to look at personal motivations but also the political trendlines within their respective communities. First I will look quickly at the full results across the state and then discuss each switch/district on its own.

Lets dive in.

The 2024 Election by State House District

It was sheer coincidence that when Cassel’s party switch was announced, I was wrapping up my full calculations of the 2024 Election by Florida House district. I intend to do a much more detailed look at the State House level results after the new year.

The full 2024 results can be seen below. Donald Trump won 85 of Florida’s 120 districts. Both HD64 (Tampa Bay area) and HD101 (Southeast Broward) backed Trump by just over 2%.

HD64 and HD101 were two of FOURTEEN districts that Backed Biden in 2020 but moved to the Donald Trump camp. The full swing from 2020 to 2024 can be seen below. Only one district moved left while both 64 and 101 moved solidly to the right.

Trust me I have lots to say about LOTS of these districts. However, in the name of sticking to the topic, I’m gonna keep this on our two party switchers. Rest assured I plan to write about things like the small swings in Jacksonville and the MASSIVE swings in South Florida.

Sticking to the topic, Valdes’ HD64 swung 18% to the right while Cassel’s HD101 moved 17% to the right. Both have remarkably similar trendlines for their districts. In 2012 and 2016, these districts were solidly blue. Then in 2020 they dropped a large amount in Democratic margin. Then in 2024 they flipped.

After the 2024 Election, Valdes and Cassel were two of three members sitting in Trump districts - the other being Leonard Spencer in HD45. Now with the switches, Spencer stands alone as a Democrat in a Trump seat.

Lets look at each party switch.

Susan Valdes and HD64

Lets start with the original party switcher, Susan Valdes and HD64. Valdes has represented part of the Tampa Bay area since getting elected in 2018. She was originally elected to HD62, which was changed to HD64 in redistricting. Before her election to the House, she was a member of the Hillsborough School Board.

Both district iterations were drawn to unite the Hispanic population of the Tampa area. The current district is majority-Hispanic via census and is plurality Hispanic in voter registration.

The district’s Hispanic population is partly Cuban, partly Puerto Rican, and many other national groups. There has been a long Cuban Hispanic presence in the Hillsborough County area - dating back to Cigar making at the turn of the 20th century.

When Valdes was elected in 2018, she came out the victor in a heated Democratic Primary. She was always considered part of the moderate left-of-center wing of the party but largely had a voting record in line with the Democratic caucus. She was also an outspoken in attacking Republicans in the legislature and on social media. Just a few days before her party switch, she actually ran to be Chair of the Hillsborough County Democratic Party. However, in that vote, she lost to party activist Vanessa Lester. The race was largely seen as an establishment vs progressive fight. A good write-up on it can be seen here.

Valdes certainly has an argument for being picked. While Trump had flipped her district, she’d won re-election that same day by 5%. Valdes’ election win certainly is to her credit. However, being a good election performer does not automatically make one a good chair for a local party (and managing the different coalitions a broad county party needs to build). Picking her as chair was not something to be obviously done, but she clearly felt disrespected. It was just days after this loss that she announced her party switch.

In her statement, which you can view here, Valdes clearly signaled sour grapes. Some line highlights area

“I will not waste my final two years in the Florida legislature being ignored in a caucus who’s leadership expects me to ignore the needs of my community.”

“I know that I won’t agree with my fellow Republican House members on every issue, but I know that in their caucus, I will be welcomed and treated with respect,”

As intimated in her statement, this is Valdes’ last two years of office, as she will be term limited in 2026. Being termed-out meant she faces no risk of electoral backlash for the move, no risk of a primary loss or a general loss. However, I do believe the trend in his district makes it easier for her to make the jump. Her switch, as craven as it likely is, does match with the movement of many of her district’s voters.

I discussed this in my post-election retrospective and in my article on Osceola County, but Democrats have a clear issue with Hispanic voters. Economics and a perception Democrats have lost touch is likely a major driver. Reversing this is well beyond the scope of this piece, but I recommend both links above for more of my thoughts on the topic.

Hillary Cassel and HD101

Rep Hillary Cassel gave Republicans a late Christmas present when she announced her party switch on the 27th. Cassel represents HD101, a nominally-white seat with a growing Hispanic population and sizeable Jewish community as well. The district covers parts of Davie, Dania Beach, Hollywood, and Hallandale.

The district has a growing Hispanic population and will likely be less than 50% white in registration soon. The Jewish data is from some survey/catalyst research a few years ago. By luck I had some precinct-level estimates that covered HD101 - but I stress that data should be viewed with a margin of error. It does match though with the anecdotal account of sizeable Jewish shares of the vote in Hallandale and northern Hollywood.

Cassel, a property insurance attorney, was elected in 2022. She came into the cycle with plenty of local Democratic support and a large amount of funding. She first had to get through a 3-way Democratic Primary. In that primary, she bested LGBT-rights activist Todd Delmay and local Democratic politico Clay Miller. Delmay was actually part of one of the gay couples to sue the state over its 2008 Same-Sex Marriage ban. The suit would ultimately lead to the repeal of the ban in 2015.

In the Democratic Primary, Cassel had been taken to task due to the fact a political committee she ran, Florida Policyholders Cooperative, donated to both Democrats and Republicans. At the time, however, this was largely dismissed as the cost of doing business. Basically Florida politics is corrupt and we just all know it. Screw campaign finance reform. (Also another topic for another day).

In the November election, Cassel won her election by 7%. This was closer than expected, as this had been a Biden +14 seat. However, that same day Charlie Crist only won the district my 0.4%. Now as I discussed in my 2022 State House review, a big issue that year was terrible Democratic turnout. Many did not expect the district to be so close again in 2024. In fact, Cassel didn’t even generate a 2024 opponent.

Once in office, like Valdes, Cassel has a typical Democratic voting record. She has bad ratings from conservative groups and has been outspoken against many of the conservative positions of the Florida Republicans. She was a vocal opponent of restrictions on transgender care, argued against abortion restrictions, and by and large was a classic liberal Democrat. Cassel has also been a major critic of the Florida GOP’s failed efforts to bring property insurance rates under control. To say that Cassel’s public posture NEVER pointed toward a Republican switch is an understatement.

Then on the 27th Cassel released a statement announcing her switch. Her statement, which you can read in full here, leaned heavily on issues around Israel.

“As a proud Jewish woman, I have been increasingly troubled by the Democratic Party’s failure to unequivocally support Israel and its willingness to tolerate extreme progressive voices that justify or condone acts of terrorism. I’m constantly troubled by the inability of the current Democratic Party to relate to everyday Floridians. I can no longer remain in a party that doesn’t represent my values.”

This is quiet an accusatory statement and frankly a statement I call BS on. If you want my thoughts on the whole Gaza war its really simple. October 7th was horrifying. The last year of civilian mass-slaughter in Gaza is also horrifying. If you want more of my hot takes on the topic go read this. That, btw, is the same issue position of the most left-wing member of the Florida House Democratic caucus. The FL and US Democratic Party have hardly taken anti-Jewish positions; much less anti-Israel.

Like the Congressman, I view craven self-interest as a bigger reason for this switch. She acts like some of those lunatic campus protestors blocking students (who I’ve called out on twitter) are in the Democratic rank and file. As I see it, if you are going to make such a claim, back it up with some receipts or specifics.

Motivation aside, the fact is her switch only happens if her district moves right. When her switched was announced, many assumed she was in a blue seat. Few released that her Biden +14 seat had move all the way to backing Trump by 2.6%.

Comparing the vote to the registration map, its clear that Hispanic and Jewish voters swung to the right. The long ruby-red precinct in the center of the seat 2020 (that got dark red in 2024) is home to a sizeable Orthodox Jewish community. This district, which has a large working class component, likely didn’t see any precincts really move left; nationality or religion aside. Cassel’s move does reflect a clear sentiment in her district. While I call BS on Cassel’s stated reason for switching, there is a clear problem Democrats have with voters in the district.

Unlike Valdes, Cassel can run for re-election in two years. She may run in the seat, she may make a play for State Senate if that opens up. However, while some wanted to declare her doomed in 2026, I am hardly in that camp. Her switch reflects the switch of the district’s sentiment - regardless of her personal motivations.

Looking Ahead

Over the next two years I am sure many will be watching Cassel and Valdes closely. Its already been bandied about in the press corps and operative circles that both will likely get nice budgetary rewards for their twitches. Bringing home money and projects to your district is certainty a goal of any lawmaker. No doubt switching into the majority party gives you more influence for your district. One wonders how they will vote on hot-button issue positions. Will they do what many party switchers do, and simply go full into the ideology of their new party? Will they be the handful of dissenting Republican votes on high-profile social issues? I guess we will see.

In 2026, HD64 will be open for sure, and HD101 may or may not have Cassel running again. In either instance, can Democrats win these seats back? They certainty can, but it is in no way a guarantee. As the line graph earlier showed, this year was not just a fluke - but rather a continuation of a long trend.

There is one data point several have noted, and that is that both districts had notably lower turnout in 2024. This is true, as both seats saw around 8,000 to 9,000 fewer votes cast. I don’t have the final turnout reports yet, so I cannot offer specifics on Democratic and Republican turnout. However, what we see is that while Trump made small raw vote gains in both districts, the biggest issue was Harris getting far fewer raw votes than Biden. In total, just fewer votes were cast.

In principle, this can give Democrats hope - that there is a batch of voters out there to be driven out and flip the districts back. However, let me throw a little cold water on this being some “easy task.” There is no evidence that those who didn’t show up would automatically vote Democratic. Also, if these voters didn’t show up in a Presidential cycle, what makes anyone so sure they show up in a midterm? We also have to realize that part of Trump gaining votes means a good several thousand Biden voters flipped to Trump. Maybe 5,000 of Trump’s 2020 voters didn’t show but he won 7,000 Biden voters. I’m just throwing those numbers out of thin air but that scenario is entirely plausible. The point is, don’t assume “oh just a bunch of Democrats didn’t show up.” Its not that easy, and we still need final turnout reports.

The party switching of Valdes and Cassel is craven politics at its worst. Democrats have a right to be angry with both members and question their reasoning. Frankly I don’t care about either or what their reasoning was. What I am far more concerned about is that these once-blue seats backed Trump this year. Democrats need to spend 2025 and 2026 looking at why these districts swung they way they did if they ever want to bring them back into the blue column.