Issue #220: Gabon's Coup & Constitutional Referendum: Is Democracy Possible?

Gabon's fairest vote to date

Here we are. Its New Years Eve and I am sending out my final newsletter for 2024. You saw the title and your first thought was “what the hell is ‘Gabon’ and why is the Florida data guy bothering me with it.” Its ok to admit it. But for the record this is where Gabon is.

This article topic is probably not interesting to you at all. Some referendum in a third-world Southeast African nation is not what you are interested in reading about. This is not news to me, as substack has metrics I can study. I know that “international elections” have the weakest open rate and weakest sharing rate of anything I write about. I am deciding to end the year on a topic that I do not expect to perform well.

So why I am dedicating my final article of the year to Gabon? Because what happens in the rest of the world matters. Years ago I resolved to cover elections in often-forgotten places - which normally means in Africa. The election and the fights for democracy in this part of the world are important and often overlooked. I want to do what I can to shed some light on a part of the world many overlook.

With that, I invite you to read about a third-world petrostate in Africa. A nation that went through decades of family rule with rigged elections, saw a military coup, and has now had arguably its freest election to date. Its a gripping story that few in the world know about.

Backstory in Gabon

This is actually not the first time I discussed Gabon. Back in the September of 2023, I wrote about Gabon’s 2023 coup and the rigged elections that proceeded it. I also discussed rigged votes in other nations as a comparison point. You can read more about that in the article below, but I will cover the basics of Gabon here.

My summary of Gabon from that issue is pretty on point so I am going to repeat it here to give you a baseline understanding of the nation.

Home to 2.5 million people and one of the least dense nation’s in Africa, Gabon is a former French colony. The nation, very much a petrostate, as 80% of its exports are oil, is actually one of the richest per-capita in Africa. However, thanks to corruption by officials, that revenue rarely trickles down to the average resident.

Despite decades of elections, Gabon has never really been a democracy. While they had elections, the vote counting was rigged. In August, Gabon was holding another election, with President Ali Bongo Ondimba expected to to easily win. Ondimba had been President since 2009 after the death of his father, Omar Bongo. Similar to Ondimba, Bongo served as President with rigged elections; holding the post since 1967. The longtime corrupt leaders made deals with Western powers, especially the French government, to maintain lavish lifestyles while their citizens lived in poverty.

For its entire independent existence, Gabon has been the classic nation that is wealthy in resources but rarely sees money filter past the elites. The Bongo family ruled Gabon and treated the nation as a personal bank account. While not the most repressive regime, it was poor and not free democratically or civilly. Over one-third of the nation lives in poverty. The Bongo family has often relied on support from France, which has major stakes in Gabon oil, for support.

If you want more info on the history of Gabon, this Geography Now video offers a great 10 minute summary.

Despite mineral wealth, Gabon has never reached its full potential. While the ruling elite have ensured some infrastructure improvements and other efforts to keep citizens at bay, there has long been an undercurrent of frustration. However, expressing disapproval has never been something easily done at the ballot box.

Gabon’s Fake Democracy

For several decades, Gabon could not even claim to be a fake Democracy. Omar Bongo ruled Gabon as a one-party state from 1967 to 1990. It was only in 1990, when protests and riots demanding open elections became too much to ignore, that Omar Bongo agreed to transition to multi-party elections. The first multi-party contests were held in 1993, which saw Omar Bongo win with 51% and major opposition leader Paul Mba Abessole take 26%. The election was not transparent and was widely viewed as rigged.

No district-level or polling-district level data would be released for that first election or hardly any to follow. No observers were allowed. The lack of transparency was often used to hide the rigging of the vote. It often is not even clear if announced results simply saw ballot stuffing or disqualified ballots - or if results were just made up. This became the norm going forward. Elections were held, the results were rigged, and protests would erupt. Often opposition leaders were either bought off to become part of the inner circle - or leaders were arrested and/or killed.

Omar Bongo would rule Gabon until his 2009 death. When he passed, he was the longest serving non-royal dictator in the world. With his death, a special election for President was ordered for that same year. Here is where Ali Bongo Ondimba took control upon the death of his father. This excerpt from my 2023 piece sums the 2009 and 2016 elections well.

The 2009 election was the first time Ali Bongo Ondimba faced the voters. He secured 41% of the vote, while his opponents trailed with 26% and 25% respectively. No runoff was required, and Ondimba was sworn in as President. However, this came after delays in the returns and lax data to verify the results. Protests erupted and Gabon security forces, and French soldiers, clashed with the opposition forces.

Data and information from these elections can be hard to come by, which further arouses suspicion. The 2016 Presidential Election, however, offers a real glimpse into the rigging of the vote. In that election, Ondimba faced Jean Ping, who was a former Minster of Foreign Affairs. Ping represented a major threat to Ondimba, and as returns began to come in, the President was way down in the vote.

The 2016 election marked the most data transparency, and incidentally revealed the clearest issues of fraud. No doubt the goal in transparency was to alleviate claims of fraud. However, like so many dictatorial regimes, they fail to make the rigging believable. When Ali found himself way down in the vote, he was saved by a massive landslide in his family’s home province of Haut-Ogooue.

Now, as I have covered in articles on past African elections, dominating performances like this are not uncommon. Ethnic-block voting is often a major driver of these landslides. I documented this in my article on the 2022 Kenyan Presidential Election.

The 95% win in that province, a family home, is not the biggest red flag. The real red flag was the turnout. Look at the turnout results by province.

The turnout is honestly the biggest proof of fraud. Yes you can presume that turnout would be very strong with regime efforts to bring votes out. But come on, 99.9%? This is ridiculous and entirely unbelievable. This unlikely result, along with the lack of any independent observers, means the result is surely rigged. The response from the public, which saw unrest and protests, indicated few believed the results.

The lazy rigging of the results, with it so obviously ballot stuffing in one province, is reminiscent of the rigging in Venezuela early this year. I talked about this in my piece looking at the Venezuelan elections - the history of autocratic regimes being unprepared for how much they have to rig the vote and leaving obvious traces in their efforts.

The 2023 “Palace Coup”

On August 26th, Gabon held elections for President and the parliament. The election saw Ali Bongo run despite suffering from the effects of a stroke several years earlier.

Like the previous votes, this election was not overseen by international monitors, had no transparency in the vote count process, and was widely seen as rigged. Four days after the vote, as tension rose, the state news announced that Ali Bongo had won with 64% of the vote. The announcement, which came at 3:30 in the morning on August 30th, came with a declaration of a curfew and the cutting off of internet access. The regime clearly expected protests.

Within an hour of the announcement of the results, the army of Gabon launched a coup. In their announcement, the army stated the coup was due to the……

"irresponsible, unpredictable governance, which results in a continuous deterioration of social cohesion, risking leading the country to chaos".

The coup leaders announced the forming of the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions. The internet was restored and the curfew was eventually lifted. President Ali Bongo was arrested and placed under house arrest. In a video that went out at the early stages of the coup, Ali called for his supporters in and out of the country to make noise. Commentators noted how little support came from within the country - and how Ali calling for outside help was a clear appeal to France. No outside power would make any move to help him, however.

It was quickly announced that Brice Oligui Nguema, the head of the Gabon Republican Guard, a separate military that protects Government agencies and officials, was to be interim president. Nguema is the cousin of Ali Bongo and was a close ally of Omar Bongo. This connection is part of why the coup is referred to as a “Palace Coup” - aka a coup that sees one side of the elites simply usurp the other. This was not an outside force overthrowing long-standing leaders; but rather an internal power struggle.

In the weeks following the coup, the interim government took steps to appease those concerned about simply replacing one dictator for another. Several opposition leaders were freed from prison and Ali Bongo himself has been allowed to enter a permanent retirement - officially renouncing politics.

Brice Oligui Nguema has pledged he does not intend to just be the latest dictator. So lets look at his words and actions so far.

Is Nguema Serious About Reform?

In the wake of the coup, and in the proceeding months, the rhetoric from Nguema and his allies point to a desire for broader change. Nguema insisted the coup was driven heavily by the mismanaged and autocratic nature of the government. In an interview given with LeMonde the day of the coup, Nguema said

You know that in Gabon, there is discontent and, beyond this discontent, there is the illness of the head of state [Ali Bongo suffered a stroke in October 2018 that left him weakened]. Everyone is talking about it, but nobody is taking responsibility. He had no right to serve a third term; the Constitution was disregarded, and the election method, in itself, was not good. So the army has decided to turn the page and take its responsibilities.

This does hit at an important distinction between Ali Bongo and his father. Omar Bongo, a dictator through and through, was broadly considered more competent at managing issues within Gabon. Omar made sure enough wealth filtered down to keep the population broadly appeased and hence unwilling to stage a massive revolution. Ali Bongo, however, was seen much more of “party boy” who was only in power due to his father. In fact, before Ali Bongo got into politics under his father’s guidance, he was an aspiring musician. In 1977 he released a FUNK album - A Brand New Man.

Ali Bongo, like so many children of dictators, was not as competent as his father, and was unable to keep the coalition his father had together. As Ali Bongo spent more and more time on vacation outside of the country and mismanagement grew, a clear break in the ruling elites emerged. This set up the opening for the coup.

In the days after the coup, Nguema pledged for the return of civilian rule, but warned the process would not be instant.

"Going as quickly as possible does not mean organizing ad hoc elections, where we will end up with the same errors,"

The opposition parties and leaders had little positive to say about Ali Bongo, but largely have expressed concern about the return to civilian rule. Albert Ondo Ossa, the leader of the opposition Alternance 2023 alliance that contested the rigged general election, has insisted he rightly won the race and should be president.

"We were happy that Ali Bongo was overthrown but ... we hope that the international community will stand up in favour of the Republic and the democratic order in Gabon by asking the military to give back the power to the civilians," - Alexandra Pangha, a spokesperson for Alternance 2023 leader Albert Ondo Ossa

There is rightful skepticism about the intentions of the coup leaders. However, with many citizens clearly sick of the rule of Ali Bongo and his father before, there is a good deal of hope that Nguema, despite his ties to the ruling family, will be an agent of change. This line from this good review of the situation I think sums up the hope that many have felt about the events.

"Moses was educated in the house of Pharaoh, but God appointed him to liberate the people of Egypt from slavery. This is what is happening in the house of Bongo,” - Doles Gabriel (civilian)

To get even more of sense of the local and regional reaction to the coup, I recommend this video.

As the government transition went on, it was announced that a new constitution was being drafted and would be subject to a public referendum.

The New Constitution

If the coup leaders were serious about change, the referendum had to be free, fair, and transparent. This was the first big step in seeing how serious Brice Oligui Nguema was about democracy.

In the fall of 2024, the draft constitution was released. The major government and election points were

• Presidential terms would be 7 years, with a two-term maximum

• No Prime Minister under the new legislative system. There will be a House and Senate

• Separation of powers between Presidency, Judiciary, and Legislature

• French remains the official state language

• Bans the decedent or spouse of a current President from running for the office

• Runoffs for President if no one gets 50%

The Constitutional Government and election system are solid foundationally. However, it has been noted the system does give the Presidency a good deal of power. This is because Brice Oligui Nguema does intend to run for the Presidency himself. This constitution is clearly drafted with it in mind that he will run.

Before I get more into ambition of Nguema, lets see how the referendum on the constitution went. This would be the first major sign of Nguema’s commitment to Democracy.

The Referendum Conduct

The Constitutional Referendum was scheduled for November 16th. In the lead up to the vote, the transitional government led a major campaign to get people to show up and cast ballots. On twitter, Nguema said that the nation had a “date with history.”

Unlike previous elections, international observers were allowed to view the process. The campaign was underway in November, with opposition fairly muted and largely revolving around the constitution setting up too strong of a Presidency. The broader narrative was that the vote was the first step in moving past the Bongo dynasty, the coup, and a return to civilian rule. Many voters told reporters they supported the constitution even if they didn’t agree with or know every part of it. For many, the vote was about a restoration of civilian rule rather than a constitutional debate.

International observers praised the vote and congratulated Gabon on the management of the election. Issues with counting transparency in some areas, and inconsistent procedures, were cited as things to be improved. The vote conduct was not considered perfect, but was praised a major improvement from the previous “elections.” A full statement from the Commonwealth Expert Team - which was on the ground for the vote - can be viewed here.

A website, Gabon2025, which is very much NOT a fan of Nguema, has pointed out some examples of possible manipulation. This site is planning to be a key opposition force in the 2025 elections and I do not want to presume that they are more or less trustworthy than any other source (I’m not a qualified fact checker here). I only present them in the spirit of offering more information. The report in that link looks at government-released polling station returns that show numbers not always adding up right. I found this myself in compiling results.

The trick is knowing how much of the issue, which varies from area, is bad data collection vs manipulation. I will say nothing is comparable to 2016’s nonsense - or the limited data from 2009. This does, however, point to what observers sited as the need for more improvements. Skepticism is warranted. However, his was still arguably the most fair vote Gabon has ever held.

The US Embassy in Gabon, which was had eyes on the ground for the vote, released a statement

The United States Embassy in Gabon extends its congratulations to the people of Gabon on the successful conclusion of their November 16 constitutional referendum. We applaud the calm and orderly manner in which the referendum was conducted, even as we recognize that every electoral process offers opportunities for improvement. Our embassy welcomed the opportunity to send observers to witness this pivotal event in Gabon’s history.

The United States remains a steadfast partner to Gabon as it continues on its path towards a more inclusive and democratic society. The U.S. Embassy looks forward to continuing our dialogue with Gabonese authorities to support further enhancements in their electoral procedures as the country prepares for a presidential election in 2025.

The last line here perhaps offers the most important point for next year. This vote was considered a good first start, but conduct improvements can and should be considered for the 2025 Presidential and legislative votes.

So we’ve talked about the conduct of the vote. How did things turn out?

The Referendum Results

With voters viewing the referendum as the first step back to civilian rule, it was never much in doubt that YES would be the victor. The biggest questions revolved around how fair the vote would be and what the margin was.

The full results gave the YES camp a massive 92% of the vote. All provinces ranged from 83% to 98% in support. The weakest support was from the 12,000 or so votes than came from Gabonese living abroad - but even that was 81% YES.

Turnout was modest for the referendum - coming in at 53%. Its honestly hard to gauge how this compares with other elections due to rigging in the past Most Presidential contests saws turnouts declared in the high 50s, but its hard to trust any electoral data from the previous regime.

Turnout varied by province, as low as 28% in Ngounie. However, in Haut-Ogooue, the home to the 2016 controversy, turnout was a stunning 86%.

This turnout figure brings up on interesting question. By all accounts the vote in 2024 was fairer that ever before. So is this 86% legit? After all, this is the home of the Bongo family, which Nguema is a part of. Was this turnout simply the product of heavy GOTV efforts? Considering the reported issues with transparency and vote counting in some areas - and the history in that province - I think some skepticism is warranted. To me this is something to keep in mind for improving practices for the 2025 Presidential vote.

Finally, lets look at how the YES vote compares to full voter registration in the country. With 868,000 voters eligible and 416,000 YES votes, exactly 48% of the country has said YES to the new constitution.

Considering the opposition did not organize a major boycott, we cannot really say how much of the not-voting crowd is opposed the constitution. Rather, I think increased turnout would have easily put the YES vote above 50% of registered voters.

The sentiment to me seems to clearly point to voters overwhelmingly backing the new constitution - if nothing else as a step in returning to civilian rule. The biggest obstacle remains broader apathy - something that observers cited as a big issue among young Gabonese citizens.

Looking to 2025

Gabon now looks to August of 2025 for its next step in the Democratic process. The Constitutional referendum, while not perfect, offered a good starting point for this new era in the country. The question is, will the ambitions of some stop true reform from being locked in.

Nguema’s ambition to run for the Presidency is something to keep a cautious eye on. He has the right to run, and if we wins a fair vote and respects democratic norms, then good for him. The question here will be if Nguema is Gabon’s modern Washington - someone who will serve and then leave - or will be one of many dictators who started off winning a fair vote and then devolved into despotism.

We will not know how the entire story of Gabon plays out for some time. I fully intent to follow the 2025 campaign and the August elections. Will I report back that an even more improved election process went smoothly? Will I be forced to report that shenanigans tainted the process? I am hopefully for the former, but sadly the latter is not uncommon.

However, for the moment, Gabon is shakily on a better course than were they where under the rule of Ali Bongo. Whether things will continue to improve, or tragically backslide, remains to be seen.