Issue #205: Florida Democrats Hope for a blue-tinted weekend early vote
Issue #205: Florida Democrats Hope for a blue-tinted weekend early vote
The weekday was ruby red
On Monday, as early voting began in Florida, I published the issue seen below - which took a look at where things stood with vote by mail returns.
At the time, Florida Democrats led in terms of votes cast thanks to a lead in vote by mail. This was thanks to Democrats having a larger number of requests. The status at the start of early voting can be seen below.
That article, if you missed it, goes into much more detail about historic voting methods in the state. I recommend reading it if you have not already, as it goes into several additional data points I’m not covering here.
Long story short, in 2020, Vote by Mail was over 30 points Democrats and voting in-person was just as Republican. Now, while vote my mail leans blue, its not COVID anymore. As such, I expected voting in person to be red, but less red than the past. It was widely expected early voting would be redder, as Republicans had far more “super voters” (people with a long voting history) who’d yet to show up. However, while this red swing was expected, it proved far more Republican than any Democrats could have been happy about.
The Ruby Red In-Person Early Vote
As I predicted in my last issue, I expected early voting to start off pretty red. However, it has not been ideal to see that the last five days have all been consistently as red as seem below. Each day as produced over 350,000 and all have been over 20 points red.
As a result of the solid red early vote, the Republicans currently lead in votes cast by 10% - right around 370,000 voters.
While Democrats have maintained decent lead with vote by mail, their 2-1 losses with early voting are making their effect known.
You can see the vote cast breakdown by county below.
You can see the same vote-share on a more granular level, where its broken down by the 120 State House districts.
Now I want to stress something that I mentioned in my last issue but has been overlooked on social media. Just because a jurisdiction has more votes for one party cast does not predict how it votes in November. In Miami-Dade County, the GOP lead is 7,000 with 93,000 independents having cast ballots. In House District 37, the GOP lead is 250 with 5,300 independent ballots. The Democrats lead in HD91 by 1,000 votes, but independents make up 11,000 ballot as well. In my last issue, I discussed how Democrats FLIPPED the Jacksonville Mayoral Race and HD35 Special with fewer votes cast than the GOP. How independents swing matters a great deal here.
All that said, we are still at just 24% turnout in the state. Much can change for the good or bad of Democrats. Lets look at that turnout and what votes are outstanding.
Current Turnout Dynamics
Right now, despite the solid GOP lead in votes cast, the actual turnout by party is fairly close. The Republicans have a 3% better turnout than Democrats. In addition, white voter turnout far outpaces Black or Hispanic voters, 28% to 17% respectively.
Turnout by county can be seen below. Note this image is showing red counties as those with the GOP getting a higher % of the voters to show up and blue is Democratic turnout being higher. This does not correlate with vote cast.
The deep red counties correspond well, but not perfectly, with the fact a good chunk of the remaining democratic vote in those areas are Black voters. Much of the rural white “Dixiecrats” of North Florida have officially become Republican. Rural and urban Black voters have not made their presence felt yet.
With that note, lets talk about potential votes to come.
The Weekend Vote
So what is the story with non-white voters? Well, true enough white turnout always leads Black and Hispanic turnout in Florida, and no one expects that to change. However, history tells us that the electorate on the weekends of early voting has often been more diverse and also more Democratic. Again the history is not a perfect predictor, but in the past, weekends in early voting were often more blue. This is especially true for Sundays, when the Black churches organize “SOULS TO THE POLLS” rallies. Back in the pre-COVID era, both Sunday’s were solidly Democratic.
In 2020, the Sunday before election day, the one big Souls the Polls event that cycle, was the only early voting day that was a NET GAIN for Democrats.
There is no guarantee these weekends will follow the trends of the past, the data does show Democrats do have many millions of voters very likely to turn up. One localized example is Leon County, home to Tallahassee. This is a well-educated county with 3 colleges, state employees, and a large Black population.
Right now, this solidly blue county has a slight GOP turnout advantage (though far more Democratic votes). However, we see that despite Democrats leading in turnout among white voters, the major advantage to the GOP is that turnout among Black voters and students is still low.
Now, of course as Leon Democrats, myself and others, want to make sure these voters show up. However, there is ample reason to believe many will. Black voters in Leon have historically always seen the largest share of their vote come on election day itself. Otherwise, its the early vote weekends. The same is true for students, who still have not made their presence felt yet. Students on campus have polling sites on election day and early voting becomes a bigger push on the weekends.
The age dynamic is especially important to keep in mind, as right now the votes cast is heavily driven by strong turnout among older voters. Already nearly 40% of the over 65 crowd has shown up statewide.
This dynamic varies from county to county. I know Leon well so I can attest to it more easily than others. But this is what campaigns in many areas are looking at - including campaigns I am working on (which sorry, you don’t get to see here).
Who Can Democrats Count on?
Now just because any group has not voted yet, that does not mean they are for sure going to show up. Florida Democrats should not be resting and relaxing and saying “oh those kids will show up.” For looking at potential turnout potential, its worth looking at votes cast and turnout by voting history. Below we see registration, voting, turnout, and potential remaining votes by party and how many previous elections they voted in.
Back in my last issue, I pointed out how the Republicans had a big lead in terms of 3 of 3 voters yet to show up; as well as the other groupings. They still hold a solid lead, but it has shrunk, and they no longer lead in 2 of 3s yet to show up.
So far, 80% of the in-person early voting was by voters who were “super voters” - those voting in 2/3 or 3/3 elections. There are still 5 MILLION of these voters left to cast ballots, and millions below that. Both sides have near identical numbers outstanding. For Democrats, they have plenty of voters to get out to the polls. They cannot control Republican turnout - but they can do what they can for Democratic GOTV.
The Final Week Goals
Right now the GOP leads solid vote cast lead and that is unlikely to change. With a solid registration advantage, even turnout parity would equal far more Republican votes. Democrats can only control their own turnout. So far the turnout gap remains modest, 3%, but Florida Democrats suffer from the lack of resources the Republicans possess. With very little national funding in the state, the Florida Democrats must be strategic in their turnout efforts.
A big six-figure GOTV investment was recently announced for Orange County - the site of sever contested races. This is the type of localized targeting we are going to see more of - while the Republicans can easily afford full statewide efforts. This localized GOTV effort from Democrats is definitely something I support, as the the 2024 goal in Florida has long been making regional gains and “showing life” as a party. Florida Democratic Party success does not hinge on delivering Florida to Harris - it hinges on taking back some state house races, local contests, and showing donors that a bigger investment is warranted.
For the next week Florida Democrats will see the party do what they can with the resources they have been able to secure. It is very much a grassroots effort versus a big machine. I’ll also keep openly stating that if Amendment 3 (legal weed) and Amendment 4 (pro-choice) groups want their measures to secure 60%, they better be doing their part on GOTV. Otherwise they will fall into the same trap as the failed 2014 medical marijuana measure - where bad turnout doomed it.
We will see how the weekend voting goes. Democrats and Pro-3 and Pro-4 groups are hoping for a bluer couple days. If that does not manifest, its alarm-ringing time on Monday.