Issue #204: In-Person Early Voting Begins: How Vote by Mail Looks So Far
Issue #204: In-Person Early Voting Begins: How Vote by Mail Looks So Far
How to interpret the data
Today, October 21s, a vast majority of Florida counties begin their in-person early voting. All major metro centers start tomorrow, and all counties will be operational by Saturday.
With in-person voting beginning, I wanted to take a quick look at where things stand with Vote by Mail returns. This will be a short piece that offers up a snapshot of numbers in time. I’ll be tracking early voting via twitter and doing periodic substack updates as well.
Important Historic Caveats
Before I delve into the current vote my mail data, I think its important to remind people about the perils of comparison to previous years. Florida has seen a great deal of change in its voting methods - and comparing early voting data to the last presidential election is fraught with peril.
The biggest issue is that in 2020, the voting method was very polarized. Thanks to Donald Trump’s attacks on vote-by-mail, and Democratic insistence on it to avoid the COVID pandemic, we saw an extremely Democratic-heavy vote my mail. Then when in-person early voting began, we saw a deep red electorate.
Since this election, the pandemic has receded, Trump as backed away from his vote-by-mail attacks, and Florida RESET the entire vote-by-mail list. All vote my mail requests have been from the last two years - with rollovers gone. As such, we are not seeing nearly as blue a vote-by-mail universe this time around. Likewise we will not see as red an in-person early voting makeup.
Vote by Mail Stats for 2024
Right now, right around 1.1 million ballots have been cast by mail in Florida; right around one-third of the requests made. The Republicans hold a narrow absentee return rate, leading by 1.5%. However, with more Democrats requesting ballots, the Democrats currently lead in vote cast by 71,000. Here is how the vote-share breaks down by county. This is the type of image I will be updating frequently on twitter.
The return rate by county varies - with the panhandle leading in returns so far. Most counties show either party only narrowly edging the other side in terms of return %.
For a more granular level, you can see the total vote cast so far by State House district. This is another map I will be updating frequently, as it offers a more detailed look at votes cast AND will be important for gaming out which seats might flip in this election. My State House ratings are currently in the works.
I’ll have more specific State Senate and Congressional early voting analysis later on as I look at the few seats of note for November.
Other data point is the Vote by Mail ballots broken down by party and ethnic group. Below I have the VBM requests, returns, and return % by Party and Race.
Right now Democrats lead in VBM returns with Black and White voters, while Republicans maintain a lead with Hispanics and Asian/Other/Multi-ethnic individuals. Good news for Democrats, they are holding their own with Hispanic returns - something they have struggled with before. Bad news for Democrats, that NPA Black return % is really bad. But, as I must repeat, it is early and we need to see where things go. As we get into in-person early voting, I’ll be tracking overall turnout by Race and Party. Also do not discount that some people who request ballots will instead opt to vote in-person.
A final data point is this master table. Below I have current turnout by Party, Race, and Age Group. I also break down votes who did not cast ballots in 2022, as well as looking at votes cast by voting history.
One very important item I will be focused on as we go into the next two weeks is which party has more of its “Super Voters” outstanding. If you look at the bottom right, in the “Remaining potential voters” column, the GOP has a much larger pool of super-consistent voters that can show up. So a Democratic lead in votes cast right now is not expected to hold. This is an important way to look at early vote analysis: not just who’s voted, but who could still potentially vote.
What Does This Mean?
When all votes are cast, there is no doubt the Republicans will lead the Democrats. With a registration advantage locked in and plenty of super-voters to show up, that current DEM lead will close soon. However, that is not what I’m waiting for. What I want see, and what all Florida Democrats want to see, is a final turnout that is far better than the horrid 2022 nightmare. A reminder, this is the history of party turnout in Florida from 2012 to 2022
The 2022 midterm saw a historic 15% turnout advantage for the Republican Party. This was so bad that it led to several counties and districts flipping red that otherwise should have remained blue. I have discussed this extensively on this newsletter. My final 2022 turnout report can be seen here.
For Democrats, the idea the Republicans will have a turnout advantage is not much of question. The Republicans have a more reliable electorate, whiter and older still, and have far more resources to get that vote out. With a lack of national investment in Florida, the Florida Democratic Party, which I will say has been very well run the last two years, is still suffering from a major financial gap compared to the GOP.
However, for Democrats the goal is to keep the turnout gap as modest as possible and aim for NPA support. It should be noted that in two major Democratic wins in Florida, the turnout was solidly in Republican favor.
Back in May of 2023, when Jacksonville Democrats flipped the Mayoral contest, the GOP led in terms of votes cast. However, strong NPA support and moderate Republican support propelled Donna Deegan to victory.
Then in January of this year, with a similar Republican turnout lead, a massive NPA share for Democrat Tom Keen gave him a solid victory in House District 35 - FLIPPING the seat for Democrats.
Long story short, it will not just be turnout, but also persuasion, that effects several of races on Florida’s ballot. However, the 2022 disaster shows turnout can not get THAT bad for team blue. Nothing tells me we are heading in that direction right now. We will see how the next two weeks of voting go, and how the less-partisan voters split their tickets.
Millions more ballots are set to be cast.