Issue #26: Redistricting Session and Tallahassee State House Districts
Redistricting about to begin
Next week, Florida’s redistricting officially begins. Florida’s legislative session will begin on January 11th. It is during this regular session that redistricting will be taken up. The word is lawmakers aim to pass maps as soon as possible; as maps must be reviewed and approved by the state Supreme Court. In light of this, I want to offer up some redistricting reading - and offer some new information on Tallahassee’s House Districts.
Florida’s Redistricting History
The saga of redistricting in Florida can be broken up over multiple eras. As part of my partnership with People over Profits, I have written about Florida’s redistricting history.
Era of Malapportionment: Redistricting before the 1960s - A look at Florida’s use of counties for representation instead of population.
The 1970s and 1980s: Democratic Gerrymandering - The post 1968 Constitution redistricting; an era of Democratic rule.
The 1992 Legislative Remap: VRA Struggles - The narrow Democratic majority struggles to implement minority districts while gerrymandering the map.
The 1992 Congressional Remap: Court Fights - Florida’s Congressional maps had to be drawn by courts and changed over the decade.
The 2002 Remap: GOP Gerrymander - Now in charge, Republicans craft gerrymanders to preserve their rule.
The 2010 Fair Districts Fight: Redistricting on the Ballot - The battle to get anti-gerrymandering rules in the Florida constitution.
The 2012 Remap: Fair Districts v the GOP - Republicans fight reform, and try to pass maps to preserve their majorities.
The 2015 Remap: Congressional Plan Rejected - A trial reveals the 2012 maps were secretly drawn by consultants. A new map is ordered.
The 2015 Remap (Part 2): State Senate Redraw - The legislature must also draw the State Senate lines; with a session tainted by bad blood.
2022 Primer: Looking ahead - A summary breakdown of what to watch for redistricting in 2022.
These articles offer a good history lesson that informs how redistricting will shake out over the next few months.
In addition, I have been following the redistricting drafts and examining potential lines that could emerge. You can view these articles in my Florida Redistricting Tour Series - as well as multiple substack posts in this newsletter.
Tallahassee House District Drama
One of the major issues in Tallahassee itself has been the proposed state house districts for the area. Tallahassee and its surrounding counties were already under-populated. This meant new lines would be inevitable. I explored possible plans before any drafts came out.
The trick was balancing these line changes for HD-8 being a protection African-American district. One of the drafts came close to matching one of the ideas I wrote about.
This plan kept HD8 largely the same while moving HD9, which has long Represented white Leon County - further east. It then kept HD7 rural (which it long has been).
However, the other state house draft made major changes. While HD8 was the same, the district cracked Tallahassee between three seats.
This layout links middle Tallahassee with the western rural counties, then linked northern Tallahassee with the eastern rural counties. By doing this, it takes the region from two Biden districts to one.
As I wrote about in this article (which includes more details) - the lines are clearly designed to crack Tallahassee Democrats. This has been further confirmed to me by what is now occurring in Tallahassee. I have multiple sources saying that Evan Power, the Chairman of the Leon County Republican Party, and Republican Party of Florida Chair of Chairs, has been making it clear than 8005 is the GOP’s preferred plan. Power himself, who has defended 8005 on twitter, is also angling to run for HD9, which would have no incumbent Representative. Power has claimed that Leon County is already split 3 ways.
This is true. But that is a classic “lies and statistics” point. Currently the lines only carve out rural Fort Braden (not part of Tallahassee) from Leon County and give it to HD7. This makes sense because Fort Braden (the SW end of Leon County) does have more in common with the rural counties, and is fairly isolated from Tallahassee proper.
BUT, this 8005 draft takes midtown Tallahassee and drags it all the way to Gulf County. This is not the same type of split. It cracks the city up.
Evan has long had is eyes on political office, but Tallahassee/Leon County is not a good area for Republicans. Power’s last bid for public office was a run for Leon Soil and Water district; where he got 30%.
This was actually a fascinating race, because it features Power and fellow GOP operative William Hemlich, self-fund their races for two of the Soil and Water districts. They only raised/spent around $9,000 - but this was record-breaking for what is otherwise a lowkey race. They actually rain mailers where they acted like liberal/environmentalist Democratics -trying to trick voters.
I’m sure Evan will read this - and blow a gasket - and claim I’m making this all up. I stand by it. I waited until after the holiday to work to confirm it more. I’ve been hearing this for three weeks. Evan doesn’t know how to keep his mouth shut, and he told too many people.
Alternative Lines for Tallahassee
So we have two district plans for Tallahassee. While plan 8007 is much fairer than plan 8005, I wondered if any other alternative plans could be offered. After spending a few hours looking at the region’s demographics, I came up with this alternative plan. It somewhat mirrors one of the drafts I drew a few months back.
This plan allows HD7 to retain Madison County and keep HD9 more in the Tallahassee market. HD9 here includes white/suburban Leon and most of Jefferson County, which includes many state employees who commute each day. HD8 includes most of African-American Leon County, majority-black Gadsden, and takes in Liberty county to get to an acceptable population deviation. HD7 retains its rural character, surrounding the Tallahassee market. Here are key data points. These fit within the population deviation the state house drafts use.
HD7: 183,335 population
HD8: 179,519 population (48.5% Black Voting-Age Population)
HD9: 178,288 population
I could lower HD7’s population, but that would involve splitting a county.
Here is a zoom-in window of the Leon and Jefferson splits.
To answer an important question, adding Liberty County (which is only 7,900 people) does not alter the African-American nature of the district. The seat is 70% for Biden, and over 66% African-American in a Democratic primary. Liberty is a small sliver of the county’s total vote.
For context, the HD8 in the house drafts is 68% black in a Democratic primary. This plan maintains HD8 as an African-American seat, and keeps HD9 more constrained to the area around Tallahassee.
Just an option.
Looking Ahead
Redistricting begins in earnest next week. We actually just got some new draft maps from the state senate. These just came out as I was writing this, but the initial breakdowns only make small changes that don’t alter the plans I have already covered. You can follow my twitter for more info.
There will be much more to come!