Issue #181: Alan Grayson's Elections in Florida - Part 5: Perennial Candidate

Final humiliations

This marks the TRUE NO JOKE LAST PIECE of my series on Alan Grayson’s electoral history. So far we have gone through four chapters. Links to all four are here.

• Part 1: Grayson’s Controversial First Term and landslide loss

• Part 2: Grayson returns to Congress and controversies

• Part 3: Grayson’s US Senate Primary meltdown

• Part 4: Grayson’s wife runs for his seat in 2016

After six years on-consecutive years in Congress, a disasters 2016 Senate run, and a failed effort to get his new wife elected to his seat, we finally come to the end of the Grayson saga. At least for now. The 2016 contests were extremely damaging for Grayson. His Senate run was a disaster that saw him subject to major personal scandal and finishing with just 18% of the vote. Meanwhile, his efforts to get his wife, Dena, elected over progressive stalwart Susannah Randolph, his own district director, led to many progressives to develop bitter feelings toward him. The divide in the left allowed Darren Soto, a more moderate Democrat at the time, to win the seat. Many progressives privately blamed Alan, privately if not publicly.

But Grayson was not done with electoral politics. No he would forge ahead as always. This final piece would look at those campaigns and their failures truly ending Grayson’s role as a major figure in Democratic politics.

The 2018 Congressional 9 Run

In early 2017, it was already clear Grayson was going to make another run for office. In the first quarter of the year, while technically filed for the deep-red 11th district, Grayson raised just under $200,000. Grayson made it clear the 11th filing was just for paperwork, but that his final decision on WHERE to run was up in the air. Speculation ranged from the 6th, the 10th, the 15th, or challenge Soto in the 9th to take back his old seat.

Soto Builds Progressive Support

While Grayson left his plans vague through all of 2017, Congressman Darren Soto clearly believed Grayson was possible opponent. After all, Soto had only narrowly won a 3-way primary in 2016, heavily backed by Hispanic voters, with two white progressives splitting the lefty opposition to him.

The same day Soto had won the race, Grayson had carried the district, defeating Patrick Murphy 39% to 36% within the district as he went down in flames statewide. Grayson would be a challenge, even with the damage done to him in the Senate bid and the controversy around his wife’s campaign for the seat. Progressives still disliked Soto, who as I discussed in the last issue had some moderate voting records, but was really still a left-of-center Democrat. We are not talking Henry Cuellar or Joe Manchin here. Regardless, Soto worked in his first term to shore-up left-wing support. His voting in Congress was decidedly liberal and in the spring of 2018 he received the endorsement of the Congressional Progressive Caucus Political Action Committee.

“Darren Soto is a fighter for economic justice. He works tirelessly for working Americans, and he always has. He marches for civil rights and civil liberties — for Dreamers, for Muslims, for LGBTQ Americans,” (Co-Chair Mark Pocan)

Soto was right to be wary of Grayson. The former Congressman would indeed opt to challenge for his old seat. Alan Grayson formally entered the 9th primary with April qualifying in 2018, setting up a shorter campaign timeline. Grayson of course benefitted from strong name ID. He came into the race with the usual bluster, insisting that the seat was more his than it was Soto’s.

Both candidates vied for progressive support. On this front, Soto actually appears to have outmatched Grayson. Soto got the backing of the Progressive Caucus (and was a member), Planned Parenthood, pro-gun control groups like Mom’s for Action and Giffords PAC, and the Democratic Environmental Caucus of Florida. The backing of pro-gun control groups helped dispel one of Soto’s biggest weaknesses in 2016. As I discussed in the last issue, Soto had started out with a more pro-gun posture in the legislature, but his voting record changed with increased mass shootings. In Congress he voted consistently for gun control bills, losing favor with the NRA. Soto would always be dogged for the more conservative votes of his past.

"All my opponents will always bring up 10-year-old and 8-year-old votes," ….. "Voters know better. I've been endorsed by Planned Parenthood in my last five elections now. I regret votes that were 10 years and older. They aren't reflective of my opinions over the last decade."

Soto’s shifting views were a problem for Grayson, well displayed in this article. An excerpt is here

He pounded Soto’s record in the Florida Legislature, which included votes to expand gun rights and limit reproductive rights. When Grayson brought up Soto’s vote years ago for mandatory transvaginal screening before abortions, Soto simply replied, “I regret it,” and quickly reminded the audience that he, not Grayson, now had the endorsement of Planned Parenthood—and that of most local and national progressive groups that previously backed Grayson.

Soto’s evolution on issues, which really began in the State Senate, left Grayson little room. Many progressives did not buy the Soto change of heart, but with a large amount of progressive organization backing, Soto had a stronger position with the left than he did in 2016.

Personal and Nasty Race

The campaign between Soto and Grayson was nasty. Grayson largely aimed to claim Soto was an ineffective Congressman. Soto countered with all the funds he’d brought into the district. Perhaps no better contrast was Hurricane Maria’s striking of Puerto Rico in September of 2017. Amid a horrible response from the Trump administration, Soto got a great deal of credit for working non-stop to aid island residents and locals in the district amid the chaos and carnage. This story from the summer of 2018, I think highlights Soto’s consistence services efforts. When word came that hotels were evicting people, unaware of FEMA’s deadline extension for those displaced by the storm and currently residing in Florida hotels, Soto had a base of operations in Kissimmee to ensure folks didn’t get kicked out.

Using the Super 8 on Highway 192 as a base, Soto and his staff worked to get the word out about the new deadline. At times, Soto rushed out of the lobby into the early July heat and drove down the Kissimmee tourist strip, stopping at hotels to make sure families weren’t being asked to leave. “This will give us a few more days to hopefully get some of these families that have been more difficult to place a place to go,” the Orlando Democrat told reporters.

From that same article, was Grayson’s response

"Puerto Rico now suffers from the greatest discrimination in the entire country," Grayson says. "[I would have] fended off the discrimination. It's absurd. FEMA took four times as long to send any permanent aid to Puerto Rico as it took to send aid to Texas. What did [Soto] do about it? What did he do? As far as I know, nothing."

This perhaps more than anything else set up the contrast between the two men. Soto was a workhorse and pragmatist, Grayson was a firebrand.

Debates between the two was tense. In one exchange at a debate, Soto brought up Grayson’s past support for the annexation of Crimea by Russia. I delved into this in Part 2. The exchange came over debates about impeaching Trump and the Russia investigation.

“You supported Putin invading Crimea!” Soto reminded him.

“Okay, and when did you become the great champion of self-determination?” Grayson responded.

I bring this specific part up to remind my fellow Democrats that Alan Grayson sucks.

Grayson’s nasty demeanor was on full display during the campaign. It took an especially ugly turn when Congresswoman Lois Frankel spoke at a Soto rally. There, protesters who said they were paid by the Grayson campaign, held up signs attacking Soto AND attacking Frankel.

The attacks on Frankel, a well-respected member, for her age (and let me tell you she is not senile) angered Democrats. While Grayson denied the charge, local Democratic leaders called for investigations into nasty attacks. You will remember from Part 4 that Grayson got into a heated argument with Frankel over not backing his wife, Dena, for the seat in 2016.

Both candidates raised over $500,000 in their bids. Soto, however, had far more outside aid than Grayson did. The Latino Victory Fund, for example, spent around $500,000 alone on supporting Soto. They ran Spanish-language ads, like this one seen below, highlighting Soto’s work with Hispanic residents.

Soto had outside help from a litany of other progressive groups; from United for Progress, Organize Now, and Progress Forward. A large sentiment did exist that many on the left were tired of Grayson’s antics. Don’t get me wrong, there were still many Grayson fans, and Soto detractors. However, Soto’s first term in Congress helped quell much of the left-wing opposition to Soto, while Grayson’s tactics only turned folks off.

Polls heading into election day showed Soto with a modest lead, under 10 points. It seemed like Grayson could not be counted out.

The Landslide Loss

When the primary results came in, they were a win for Soto. However, no one expected the margin he got. Soto defeated Grayson 2-1, taking 66% of the vote and sweeping all 3 counties.

Soto won across all demographics. He won the black vote in Polk County, a community he came in 3rd with in 2016. He won white voters in all three counties. He won Hispanics easily, but not by a much larger margin than he did with white voters. This race saw far less racially-polarized voting. Instead, Soto just swamped Grayson across the board; leaving the former Congressman with just a few precincts.

At the time, this truly felt like it had to be the end. Such a drubbing in his own backyard meant the end for Grayson campaigns. Right?

A Bizarre 2020 Write-in Effort

Before I get to 2022, I want to quickly mention Grayson’s odd write-in campaign from 2020. That year, Grayson filed as a write-in for the Republican-favored 6th district. The seat was held by Republican Michael Waltz. Grayson’s reason was to ensure Waltz would not be unopposed. By having an opponent, this meant Waltz would not be able to use the Congressional Franking Privilege (free postage for mail) past 90 days before the election. However, Waltz did have a Democratic opponent. It was speculated that was to allow Grayson to raise money, he did take in $15,000, to pay for for different fees for services a future campaign might use. Of course this also gave Waltz a bogyman to raise money from Republicans. Waltz fundraising efforts would focus more on keeping Grayson out of Congress than his Democratic opponent; who was underfunded and not a threat in the red seat. Grayson would actually endorse Democratic nominee Clint Curtis in October, all while still technically “running.” In the end, Grayson received 46 votes.

After this campaign, Grayson announced in 2021 that he would run for US Senate again. All the while, he kept campaign accounts open, initially filed for the soon-to-be 28th district. Grayson basically always had campaign committees going to raise money. However, Grayson’s choice of office would change in 2022.

In June of 2022, during the qualifying period for federal races, Alan Grayson announced he would be running for the new version of the Florida 10th district; a seat notably altered with redistricting.

The 10th Under DeSantis’s Racist Gerrymander

The redistricting debate around the 10th is something I covered extensively back in 2021 and 2022. In short, Val Deming’s black-performing seat, originally drawn in the 2015 redistricting process, backstory here, to be majority-black in the Democratic primary, had to be redrawn. Demographic changes, namely increased Hispanic and White Democrats, meant drawing a seat majority-black in the primary was very unlikely. However, lawmakers divided over how to draw the new lines. The Senate aimed to draw a seat that united as many black voters as possible so that the primary was at least plurality black. The House took little care for keeping black voters in Orlando united and drew a deep-blue seat that was plurality white. Read more on this divide here.

The final result, after DeSantis vetoed maps the legislature passed, was the infamous racist gerrymander we have now. With that, we have the final version of the 10th. Like Demings’ original seat, its heavily Democrat. However its Democratic primaries were plurality white. Many black voters were left out of the west end of the seat.

The district was drawn this way to pack in Democrats and keep them out of the 7th; allowing it become a GOP seat after being in Democratic hands. The result was a weakening of black political power in Orlando. However, the likelihood a Black candidate would win the 10th seemed high, as the main contenders were State Senator Randolph Bracy and progressive activist Maxwell Frost. However, at the last minute, more candidates filed.

Grayson Runs for the 10th

During qualifying weak in 2022, Alan Grayson opted to abandon his Senate campaign and instead run for the new 10th district. His entry came the same time that former Florida 5th Congresswoman Corrine Brown entered the race as well. This set up a primary with three black candidates and one white candidate. More candidates filed, but these were the top-tier folks running.

Corrine Brown is someone I’ve covered plenty before. She was a fierce opponent of the 2015 redistricting process, wanting to keep her seat, which had snaked from Jacksonville to Orlando, as it was; which was preventing the creation of a 4th black-performing district. She was selfish, making up lies about the new map and filing lawsuits over it, and then lost her 2016 primary to Al Lawson up in North Florida. Then she served jail time for fraud around charities, but had her conviction overturned. She had represented many of the district’s western voters while being Congresswoman for the 5th, but she did not dominate Orlando politics like she once did with Jacksonville politics.

Randolph Bracy, meanwhile, was a State Senator for the Western region of the district and could absolutely count on strong support there. Frost, meanwhile, was a newcomer, but was young and exciting. A Gen-Z activist who led March for our Lives, the pro-gun control youth group formed after the Parkland shooting. If elected he’d be the first Gen-Z congressman.

Grayson’s entry sparked anger from many black leaders, who felt Grayson was taking advantage of the black vote being split between 3 candidates in a seat with already weakened black voting power. Congressional Black Caucus Chair Greg Meeks said.

Our country is made better by having representatives who reflect our rich diversity. … Floridians deserve a representative who will fight for them and not just someone who wants to use their wealth to gain power.

I had choice words for Grayson as well. In an Orlando Sentinel piece…..

Grayson’s move seemed then, and still now, very opportunistic. However, I did not expect Grayson to have a dominance with white or Hispanic voters, namely due to his polarizing nature. Frost had the best chance to take those voting groups, especially as the suburban liberal white voters. Way back in 2016, Grayson had won the area that was now the 10th; defeating Patrick Murphy 40% to 39%. However, there was no guarantee he’d carry that much support six years later; especially with only increasing alienation of voters since that time. I covered the overlapping support the different candidates had in a preview I wrote back in 2022.

Frost was the clear progressive choice in the race. He received endorsements from a litany of liberal groups: The Sierra Club, AFL-CIO, Florida Education Association, Senators Ed Markey, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Rep Pramila Jayapal, and many more people and groups. It was also notable that Frost got the backing of State Rep Anna Eskamani, by far the biggest progressive voice in the Orlando area and who’s district overlapped with the congressional seat. When Eskamani ran in 2018, Grayson was on a fundraising committee. However, like most progressives, Anna went with Frost.

Senator Bracy was the one candidate to really push his bipartisan credentials. He highlighted his work with Republicans in the legislature to get incremental reform and bring money into the district. However, Bracy took flack for some votes he cast with Republicans, a similar echo to what Soto faced for votes he took as a state rep. Bracy, however, leaned into his bipartisanship as a way to ensure influence for the seat if Republicans flipped the House in the midterm. Bracy was also hurt by some of his western base being cut out of the district. I discussed these geographic issues with the Orlando Sentinel that year, back when the race was still just Frost and Bracy.

Grayson and Brown aimed to use their previous tenures to argue they’d be the most effective for the district. Grayson was less bombastic and harsh as he had been in past races, perhaps aiming for a more reserved approach. However, he largely saw his left-wing positions overshadowed by the young and charismatic Frost. Brown, meanwhile, was an afterthought through much of the campaign.

Frost easily led in money, raising over $1.5 million and having another $1 million in outside progressive support. Bracy, who led polls at first on name ID, raised $500,000. Grayson had $700,000, though $400,000 of that was self-funding. Grayson’s online fundraising network was far weaker than it used to be compared to 2010. Brown, meanwhile, only raised $90,000.

The Results

When the results came in, Maxwell Frost secured a 10 point win with 35% of the vote. Randolph Bracy came in 2nd with 34%. Grayson, an afterthought, got just 15%. Brown’s 9% was the final chapter in her destroyed legacy.

Bracy was strong in the heavily black west, which overlapped his State Senate district. Frost, meanwhile, was the candidate of white liberals, the Students of the University of Central Florida, and many Hispanic voters.

The electorate was even whiter than expected; fueled by a major turnout advantage among white democrats. The final vote by race can be seen below.

Overall, white turnout was 37% vs the 23% for Black voters. Hispanic turnout, per usual, lagged even further with 15%. The whiter share of the vote was a boon for Frost, however, who dominated with white voters.

Bracy led black voters by a massive margin, though it is again important to remember those voters also overlapped with the State Senate district he’d held for the last 10 years. Frost absolutely dominated with the suburban and urban liberal whites that overlap with Anna Eskamani’s House District. Hispanic voters are harder to pin down as no precinct was more than 45% Hispanic. However, in the most Hispanic areas, we do see Grayson performing best, which does match with his support there in the 2016 Senate primary.

The run was entirely pointless for Grayson. He did not come close to victory, and now sits with resentment from the black community for what was a clear effort to take advantage of the split field. This just furthered his path to irrelevance in the party.

Final Thoughts

Well, we sit here in 2024, another qualifying having passed with Alan Grayson AGAIN announcing a run for office. Grayson has now run for office every cycle since 2006. His last victory was in 2014, a decade ago. Don’t expect anything big from Grayson in the Senate primary. He will trail massively, likely coming in third or worse. He will only have an impact if he decides to self-fund and use the money to throw one of the many temper tantrums he has over the last near two decades.

Once a left-wing firebrand that had a major following despite his antic, Grayson slowly eroded his support base. From personal scandals around his first marriage, to open fights with party leaders, to appearing eager to be the king of central Florida politics; Grayson found himself eventually a man all on his own. Liberal voters have moved to young candidates like Maxwell Frost. The party has moved more left, so much so Darren Soto is now a steady left-wing vote. The opening to primary anyone doesn’t exist.

There is no room for an Alan Grayson anymore. His former antics could be excused by many in the party because of his strong left-wing positions. However, what does he offer now? His votes would be the same as any modern Democrat; and those Democrats have less personal scandal and fewer instances of putting their foot in their mouth.

Alan Grayson is no longer wanted in left-wing Democratic politics. All I can say is, good riddance.