Issue #180: Alan Grayson's Elections in Florida - Part 4: The Grayson Machine Fractures

Alan's effort's to control the 9th don't work out

This marks the last piece of my series on Alan Grayson’s electoral history. You can read the below pieces for recaps on how we got to this point.

• Part 1: Grayson’s Controversial First Term and landslide loss

• Part 2: Grayson returns to Congress and controversies

• Part 3: Grayson’s US Senate Primary meltdown

In Issue 3, I concluded Alan Grayson’s disasterous US Senate campaign. He’d only secured 18% of the vote, losing by 40 points to Congressman Patrick Murphy, after months of scandal and bad headlines finally culminated in explosive allegations of abuse by his ex-wife. The abuse allegations ended any hope for his campaign and saw a mass exodus of support. He barely secure 2nd place in the primary contest held at the end of August.

Grayson’s loss in the Senate campaign deeply damaged his ability to ever win elected office again. However, as stubborn as always, he would forge ahead with runs in 2018 and 2022. However, before I delve into that, we need to talk about the 2016 Primary to replace Grayson in his 9th district. The reason is simple, Alan’s NEW WIFE was running to replace her husband.

In that race, filled with palace intrigue around Alan Grayson trying to secure the seat for his wife, issues around personal loyalty, racial representation, and MORE explosive scandals, came rocketing forward. This would also hinder Alan Grayson’s ability to win future office. Lets dive into what happened in the 9th.

The 9th District and Mid-Decade Redistricting

When Alan Grayson decided to run for the Senate seat in 2015, it meant his house district would be open. Grayson had won the district in 2012, a newly-formed Hispanic access seat based around Osceola County, part of Orange, and part of Polk. It was not yet majority-Hispanic, sitting at 39% Hispanic Voting-Age Population, but reflected the massive growth among Puerto Rican and Hispanic voters in the area. I discuss this much more in Part 2 of the series. The 2010s would see the Hispanic population continue to have monumental growth in the region; with the belief being a majority-Hispanic population was inevitable. That is indeed reflected in today’s district.

With Grayson leaving, the speculation grew that then might be the right time for a Hispanic Democratic lawmakers to make a play. Again discussed in Part 2, but the Puerto Rican population was heavily Democratic or Non-Partisan. The Democratic primary was the main fight here. However, the path for a Hispanic congressperson were made more complicated by the 2015 mid-decade redistricting Florida was ordered to undergo.

I discuss this all in my series on redistricting in Florida. In 2015, the then-liberal Florida Supreme Court struck down the state’s congressional map for violating the state’s anti-gerrymandering laws. The result was a major redraw of the map, with specific mandates and rules placed by the justices. One major issue was that Corrine Brown’s 5th district, a black-performing seat that snaked from Jacksonville to Orlando, was ordered to go instead from Jacksonville and to the east, likely Tallahassee. The result would be a new black-access seat in the Orlando area. The resulting plan was what you see below. Under it, the 10th was heavily Democratic and just over 50% black in the Democratic primary; hence creating a 4th black-performing Congressional district. The 9th retained its basic shape but was changed in parts of Orange and Polk.

The changes to the 9th were a detrimental to the district’s Hispanic-access nature. I wrote about this very issue for Politico Florida in 2015; pointing out that the new 10th took in a large chunk of Hispanic voters that once belonged to the 9th. You can read my original post here - which I called the one “major flaw” of the central Florida redistricting process. In my post, I pointed out that the changes shrunk the Hispanic population of the 9th considerably. The district would go from 39% Hispanic VAP to 29%. This would see further drops among the share of Hispanics in the Democratic Primary; which was tantamount to election in the seat. How the Hispanic share of Democrats compared with the lines can be seen below.

In my piece, I argued that a different version of the 10th could easily be drawn to lose those Hispanic voters while taking in other areas that did not jeopardize the majority-black share of its Democratic primary. The 9th, meanwhile, could keep the Hispanic voters just to its west and remain a growing Hispanic-opportunity seat.

However, thanks to the fact that since the district did not yet perform for Hispanic voters, it was not under any protection against retrogression via the Fair Districts rules. There were efforts from some members, namely State Senator Mike Lee, to redraw Central Florida to remedy the situation. However, his proposal would not get approval from the state house and never come into fruition. I likewise covered the Lee proposal at the time, you can read that here.

The redistricting change was overall a net benefit for the state. It increased the number of black-performing districts, resulting in Val Demings being elected in 2016 from the new 10th. It made the map fairer and more balanced for both parties. However, as I said then and will say now, the Hispanic community of Orlando was the ‘loser’ - even though they didn’t have to be. To put a fine point on this, I collected the registration data for the original district and the 2015-2016 remapped version. Since the Democratic primary was the key to victory, I focused on the Hispanic share of registered democrats and actual votes cast in the primaries from 2012 and into 2018.

Had the original district remained, Hispanic voters would have held much more sway. You can also see the clear Hispanic growth that was taking place at the time. However, under the newly-drawn seat, Hispanic registration only got to 42% by 2018; a number still lower than the 2012 numbers under the OLD lines.

You will also notice that the share of vote cast far lagged registration. This was due to Hispanic turnout almost always lagging black and white turnout. This turnout issue was one of the reasons map makers in 2015 did not view the district as protected. By 2014, the district had only hit 30% Hispanic in the all-important Democratic Primary, and was only 10% of a Republican primary.

Turnout was a constant issue for Hispanic voters. However, you may notice the primary share JUMPS in 2016 in the new district. What sparked such better turnout? A major primary that took place that day.

Darren Soto Aims to Make History

In July of 2015, Puerto Rican State Senator Darren Soto announced he was running for the open seat. In his announcement, he highlighted his heritage and the desire to elect Florida’s first Puerto Rican Congressman.

“Many of us in District 9 are part of the diaspora Boricua,” ……. “We are proud to share a common heritage, language and culture. It would be an honor to continue that story by making history as the first Puerto Rican congressman from Florida and the first Hispanic elected to Congress from Central Florida.”

Darren Soto was already a major figure in Central Florida politics. He won a special election to the state house in 2007, a seat being vacated by John Quinones. You may remember Quinones from Issue 2, the Puerto Rican Republican that Grayson worked to tank in the GOP primary to avoid facing him that November. Soto continued to hold the seat until 2012 redistricting created a Hispanic-plurality district in Central Florida - SD14.

Soto faced no Democratic Primary for the seat, easily moving into the deep-blue district after defeating a Republican with 70%. During his time in the legislature, Soto was broadly a left-of-center vote, but had moderate tendencies on specific issues. He was a supporter of charter schools, something common among Black and Hispanic Democratic lawmakers - which stems from issues with underfunded school systems. He also was more pro-gun, but spoke about his change on the issues following several mass shootings; notably calling for a special session on gun control after the PULSE shooting. Soto was hailed for his Environmentalist Positions, winning the “Champion of the Everglades” award by the Audubon Society of Florida. He was also a solid liberal vote on abortion rights, LGBT rights, and was a leader on immigrant rights.

Soto was a strong contender for the seat. However, with some moderate issue positions and a Hispanic vote not nearly enough to win just on that, Soto was vulnerable to a lefty primary threat. In fact Soto was basically hated by the left during the 2016 campaign; broadly viewed as a “Corporate Democrat” due to his fairly-cozy relationship with the lobbyist core in the capital. Some of these critiques were fair, especially on gun issues, others very much were exaggerated. Either way, Soto was absolutely vulnerable to a left-wing opponent. The good news for Soto, however, was he didn’t have just one opponent.

The Grayson Machine Fractures

Soto’s announcement came just days after Susannah Randolph, a major player in Orange County politics, entered the race. Randolph was the wife of Orange Tax Collector Scott Randolph and was Alan Grayson’s district director. She had plenty of support from the major big-wigs of Orlando politics and had a strong progressive backing. This may have set up a battle of demographics and ideology between two major names in the area. However, Alan Grayson had other plans. As Soto and Randolph got off the ground and running, the rumor mill swirled that another major name might enter: biotech entrepreneur and lobbyist Dena Minning; the GIRLFRIEND of Alan Grayson. This set up a major 3-way race.

The entry of Dena into the race was the confirmation of a major split in the Grayson machine within the district. Randolph would have otherwise consolidated a great deal of the progressive support. She’d been a loyal soldier to Alan for years, not only servicing many roles with him, but being his campaign manager in 2010. However, with Alan wanting Dena to take his seat, which many saw an effort to control the district, he began a major war against his own former ally.

The next year would see a nasty scene happen largely behind closed doors. Grayson wanted Susannah to drop out to pave a better path for Dena. When that effort was rebuffed, Grayson went on the warpath. He fought with other members of the Florida Democratic delegation to get them to push Susannah to run for a different seat. Lois Frankel recalled Grayson telling her…

“She’s going to have my name, and I’m going to spend a lot of money on television,”

This would eventually be true, as Alan and Dena married in May of 2016. Dena would then begin campaigning ad Dena Grayson and would appear on the ballot as such.

When the House Progressive Caucus was poised to endorsed Susannah, which they would, Alan Grayson launched attacks during the meeting. One un-named member stated

“It was unseemly: Alan definitely tried to torpedo Randolph’s endorsement. He kept calling her a liar and said she spread lies. It was awful,”

Alan Grayson would be a major figure in Dena’s campaign. Ads featuring her, which highlighted her background as a physician, were narrated by Alan, and ended with him and her standing together.

The use of a doctor’s uniform, however, was controversial because Dena had not been a practicing physician for almost 2 decades; and did not have a license to practice at that time. Her role was a lobbyist for a biomedical firm, something glossed over.

There were many questions around the relationship between Alan and Dena and the ambition of both. Patricia Farley, the VP of the Democratic Women’s Club of Florida, recalled Dena angling to run for the 8th district, which is next door to the 9th, back in 2013. According to Farley, when asked why she didn’t look to start with a more local office, Dena apparently stated “I know the Kennedy family. I want to run for Congress.” The run never came to much as she apparently did not get the support she needed. Also the 8th was a pretty red seat. Later that same year, Grayson staffers figured out they were dating; a time when Grayson was still very much married. Indeed his ex-wife would accuse the Congressman of having an affair with Dena. When questioned by the press on the timing of their relationship, both Dena and Alan would react harshly.

Much of the race saw internal divides within the progressive community to unite around Randolph or Grayson; though Randolph had far more clear support from progressive activists. Final polls had Grayson at 33%, Randolph at 27%, and Soto at 19%. However, the pollster noted that they were basing their data off historic Hispanic share of the vote; something that could change with Soto’s candidacy. As you know from earlier in this post, that is exactly what happened.

Soto Makes History

When the votes came in, Darren Soto made history, winning the primary with 36% of the vote. He came in 8 points ahead of Susannah Randolph, while Dena actually fell into 3rd place.

Soto carried Osceola County, the biggest source of Hispanic voters, by a commanding margin. He also managed to secure a modest lead in Orange, while Dena fell far back to 3rd there. In Polk County, however, Soto lagged in 3rd place.

The vote by race can be seen below. You can see how much the Hispanic share of each precinct lines up with Soto shares. In the end, 44% of the vote was white, 30% Hispanic, and 21% Black.

The Hispanic vote was strong for Soto. Looking at his share in each precinct along with the Hispanic share of the vote, there was a strong correlation of 0.78.

Soto did manage to outperform the Hispanic share of the vote. He did so the most in Polk County. In fact, there were areas were Soto under-performed the Hispanic share of the vote; namely in the most heavily Hispanic areas.

Soto did not have universal Hispanic support. However, he was the clear favorite for a heavy share; likely around 65%. In the handful of heavily black precincts in the district, Soto came in 3rd, only getting 25% to Randolph’s 28% and Grayson’s 42%. For Soto, getting enough white support was critical to pull off the victory.

What Happened with House Grayson

While Dena Grayson did not win the primary for the 9th, Alan Grayson did win the vote within the district. However, considering he was the incumbent for the district (even with the redistricting changes) - his share of the vote was weak. Grayson beat Patrick Murphy by just 3 points within the 9th.

Grayson’s wins came thanks to large support outside of Polk; which went to Murphy easily. Grayson had much stronger Hispanic support; through perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente secured 12% of the vote and did well among the Hispanic population.

I compared the Alan and Dena share of the vote by precinct within the district. Dena outdid her husband in Polk County while trailing in the Hispanic heavy regions of Orange and Osceola.

Where Dena under-performed makes a great deal of sense. In her race she had both a Hispanic opponent and another with deep tied with Orange County politics. Nevertheless, considering she led most polls heading into the primary, her 3rd place showing was a body blow for the couple. To this day she has not run again.

But Alan did

One More Article!

In my last issue, I said that Part 4 would be the final piece of my Grayson series. Unfortunately, this coverage of the changes to the 9th district and the race of Dena Grayson took up far more space and detail that I planned. As Lincoln once said, or at least he said in the movie ‘Lincoln’…….

“I could write shorter sermons but when I get started I’m too lazy to stop.”

In truth, covering this was important for the TRUE I PROMISE FINAL ARTICLE ON GRAYSON that will be out either Wednesday or Thursday. Alan’s tactics in this primary further eroded support for him, leading to bitter divides in the progressive community. Many were angered about a “betrayal” of Randolph by the Congressman and his effort to install his wife in the seat. This would compound with the US Senate drama in breaking the spell Alan Grayson had on many progressives.

Two years later, Alan Grayson would challenge Soto for the seat. It would be just as nasty as every other Grayson race. Issue 5 will cover that campaign and his ill-fated 2022 run as well. There we will, finally, I promise, rap up the saga of Alan Grayson.