Issue #177: Alan Grayson's Elections in Florida - Part 2: Back with a Vengeance

He can thank redistricting

On Monday, I released Part 1 of my look back at the electoral ups and downs of former Florida Congressman Alan Grayson. That issue covered Grayson’s burst onto the political scene and his initial controversies.

After losing his 2010 re-election in a massive landslide, Grayson could have faded away from electoral politics like so many of his former colleagues. Instead, Grayson would get a second political life thanks to Florida redistricting. This issue will cover his return to Congress.

Redistricting in Orlando

Immediately after his 2010 loss, Grayson certainly intended to remain active in politics. An outgoing interview with the NYT saw him take the Democratic Party to task for moderating itself too much and not going bolder. At the same time, he praised Speaker Nancy Pelosi, giving her an “A” grade for pushing as much legislation as she did. Grayson reserved much of his fire for the Republicans; very much setting himself up as a liberal attack dog that would, as I think he intended it to be seen, “keep his own party honest.”

It was not long before Grayson made his intentions clear. In July of 2021, before a new Congressional map was even being drawn, Grayson said he intended to run for “some” Orlando area seat. With Florida poised to gain two new Congressional districts, it was widely understood that the Orlando area, home to stunning growth over the last decade, would be where one of the two was anchored. In addition, Florida voters had passed the “Fair Districts Amendments” in 2010, which set up anti-gerrymandering rules that could be wielded by a then-liberal State Supreme Court. I covered the Fair Districts campaign here. While Republicans spent plenty of time filing lawsuits over the process and working to weaken the provisions, there was a broad view that the GOP knew they’d have to throw some bones to Democrats. As a result, the likelihood of a new Democrat-oriented seat in Orlando, likely stationed around the growing Puerto Rican population in the area, was high.

The map that would ultimately be improved did precisely this. The new version of the Florida 9th, which was the seat Grayson would run for, was anchored in Osceola while taking in parts of Orange and Polk; uniting the areas Hispanic population. Daniel Webster, meanwhile, was given the 10th, which leaned Republican, to run in. You can read my history piece on the 2012 redistricting process here.

The new 9th was, at the time, a Hispanic-opportunity district; 43% white and 39% Hispanic voting-age population. The Hispanic growth was not high enough yet for a Hispanic-majority seat, like we have today. However, the 2000 to 2010 census comparisons shows just how much the Hispanic population had grown.

Among the Hispanic population, right around 55% were Puerto Rican specifically. No other nationality cracked double digits. The dominance of Puerto Rican voters meant that unlike the Miami-Dade seats, with strong Cuban shares of the vote, this would be a heavily Democratic seat.

• In the 2008 Presidential race, the district voted for Obama by 20 points.

• In the 2010 Governors race, the district backed Democrat Alex Sink by 10 points

For a seat like this, the Democratic primary was the major fight.

Grayson for the 9th

Grayson’s early angling in 2011, strong fundraising, and sky-high name ID made him a clear frontrunner for the new 9th district from the very beginning. On the Democratic side, Grayson cleared any potential primary rivals and was the only Democrat to file.

Main question, how did Grayson avoid a Hispanic challenger in the primary? After all, 43% of registered Democrats were Hispanic. Even though Hispanic turnout was much lower, leading to a 2012 Democratic primary that was just 28% Hispanic, this was still a sizeable voting block that could have put Grayson at risk to a coalition of Hispanic and other white/black primary voters. One issue is that the bench of Hispanic democrats was still growing in the area. Puerto Rican Democrat Darren Soto, the current 9th Congressman, was then a state house member. In 2012, he could have made a play for Congress, but instead ran for the State Senate seat drawn for Hispanic voters. For Soto, that was the better long term move. The growing number of Hispanic county commissioners, city commissioners, and other local officials in the area all knew taking on the well-funded Grayson would be a real challenge. Even a united Hispanic vote would not be enough. On top of this, Grayson did have Hispanic support, its not like he was despised.

Either way, Grayson secured his spot as the Democratic nominee with no opponent filed. So was he a lock for the seat? Well in most cases he would be, but first he had to make sure the Republican Primary went his way.

Ratf*cking the Republican Primary

Grayson was the Democratic nominee, meaning most of his work was done. However, as a white man running in a growing Hispanic-opportunity district, the biggest worry would be if a Hispanic Republican ran against him. The Republicans had JUST the candidate for the occasion.

On the Republican side, the strongest candidate would have been John Quinones; then an Osceola County Commissioner. Quinones made history in 2002 when he became the first Puerto Rican Republican State Representative in Florida. His win was in a Hispanic plurality seat that had easily backed Al Gore two years earlier. In 2007, Osceola County held a special election for county commission after a federal judge struck down the at-large voting system and moved the commission to single-member districts. Quinones resigned his house seat to run for a newly-drawn Hispanic-majority seat. Despite it being a Democratic district, Quinones won. Incidentally the saga of the Osceola redistricting process is something I’d like to return to at a later date.

Quinones would likely have still been a longshot against Grayson, as federal races have shown less and less ticket-splitting in the modern era. However, considering Quinones’ history of winning blue seats, along with the possibility of peeling off Hispanic voters, meant he could not be taken lightly. Grayson realized this and decided to get involved in the Republican Primary. The political savvy of you will know this tactic by its nickname - ratf*cking.

What is ratf*cking? Its a broad term for dirty tricks, but often is used in the context of when you interfere in your oppositional party’s primary to help elect the weakest candidate out of that side; making your general easier. We have seen both parties engage in this tactic before; but the origin dates back to Richard Nixon’s cronies and infamously Roger Stone. With Grayson unopposed in the Democratic Primary, Grayson spent his time focused on manipulating the Republican side to not nominate Quinones.

Quinones has three opponents, with the biggest being Todd Long, the right-wing lawyer who’d nearly knocked off Republican Congressman Rick Keller in the 2008 primary - something I covered in Part 1. Long was underfunded and had a litany of baggage; a perfect general election opponent for Grayson. Long was also white, which didn’t hurt him in a primary because only around 20% of registered Republicans in the 9th were Hispanic; with a likely primary share closer to 10%. Quinones’s strong Hispanic support was important for peeling off independents and moderate Democrats. However, since the Orlando Hispanic vote is so heavily Democratic leaning, few are registered to the Republican side, leaving a primary electorate heavily white. Among registered Hispanics of the district at that time, 43% registered with the Democratic Party, 44% registered non-partisan, and just 13% with the GOP.

Grayson decided to spend 6-figures attacking Quinones for raising taxes; a NO GO on Republican Primary circles. The Grayson attacks on Quinones were clearly designed to boost Long and tank Quinones with the heavily-white, conservative primary electorate; many of whom never voted for him since he represented a dense Hispanic-heavy pocked of South Orange and North Osceola. Quinones was very aggravated by this fact, which was well-reported at the time.

The Grayson strategy worked, with Todd Long easily besting Quinones in the primary by nearly 20 points. Quinones secured just 28% of the vote; with his best showings in the Hispanic-heavy areas he already represented. Even then he was clearly taking a good chunk of white voters in the areas he covered.

Long no doubt benefitted from the name-ID of previous races, which had seen Congressman Keller attack him four years earlier. Sometimes the name ID remains but the attack specifics (Long had a DUI history) are forgotten. Quinones was clearly damaged by the Grayson attacks, as he couldn’t even prevent the rise of two other candidates as well; both who took some precincts.

Quinones was no doubt angry with the situation, pledging his support to Long in the general election.

"A person who is deceiving as Alan Grayson and divisive in nature doesn't deserve to be the congressman for this area so my end I will be there for Mr. Long."

Frankly, the who fatf*cking affair does not look remotely ethnical from Grayson. This was a white dude forcing his path into a Hispanic-opportunity seat and also working to tank a ground-breaking Hispanic Republican. Don’t get me wrong, its very smart politics, and Quinones was still a right-wing conservative, but the optics sure don’t look great. Especially when it will be paired with other racially-questionable antics he will get up to later on. I talk about this primary because it will play into a batter in future years with Grayson showing little regard for minority voter representation.

Easy General Elections

Once the Republican Primary was over, Grayson was sitting pretty. Long never had a chance against Grayson, unable to raise any large sums of cash and sitting in a deep-blue seat. The two would have a heated local debate, but all press for the time correctly predicted Grayson was clearly on his way back to Congress.

Grayson would defeat Todd Long by 25 points, a near identical margin to Barack Obama that same day. In both races, the Hispanic-heavy Northwest end of the district stands out in contrast to the more rural white populations.

Grayson’s win was one of four Democratic pickups in Florida. The same day that Grayson took the 9th, Democrat Patrick Murphy flipped the 18th, Lois Frankel flipped the 22nd, and Joe Garcia flipped the 26th.

The Democratic gains were aided by the strength of Obama carrying Florida for a 2nd time while also having a map with reduced political gerrymandering. Now the map still had issues, especially related to the debate over the black-performing 5th district’s shape and questions around Tampa. As I covered here, the map would eventually be struck down after it was revealed Florida Republicans had taken steps to protect what they could, a violation of Fair Districts. Read that link for more background. The result was a remap that took effect in 2016, the same time Grayson would be running for US Senate. Foreshadowing here, but Grayson’s main rival in that Senate primary would be the newly-elected Patrick Murphy.

A New Leaf? Maybe Not

Grayson entered Congress in January of 2013 and for the first half of the year was a bunch quieter member. Grayson admitted in an interview that the benefit of being in such a blue seat meant he didn’t have to reply on outspoken antics to gin up fundraising. Grayson, who came in at a time when Republicans controlled the house, instead focused on the amendment process to tack on policy proposals to broader legislation. To his credit, he became very affective at this, allowing him to tout his effectiveness as a Congressman. Still bombastic, he did utilize the legislative process far more effectively than some of the more loud-mouth members today, who can barely figure out how to get roads funded for their district.

The “gentler-quieter” Grayson did not last past the summer of 2013. By the fall, he was generating controversy. A big one was his fundraising email, and Grayson had built up a massive email fundraising network, that compared the Tea Party to the KKK.

Grayson would not back down from the email, in his statement

“[T]here is overwhelming evidence that the Tea Party is the home of bigotry and discrimination in America today, just as the KKK was for an earlier generation,” Grayson said. “If the shoe fits, wear it.”

I’m not hear to defend the Tea Party. In fact I won’t, they sucked, and they did have a bunch of racist conspiracy lunatics in their ranks. The broader question from any Democrat taking issue was more if it was an apt comparison considering the Klan’s terrorist past and the deaths that swirl around it.

This email would mark a bigger return to bombastic styles for Grayson. While some would roll their eyes, and Republicans would fume, it didn’t matter much for a Democrat in such a safe blue seat. There were other things that made Grayson lose more and more favor with the Democratic “establishment.”

Putin and Assad Defender

Personal antics aside, Grayson generated headlines for policy positions that put him in opposition to the Obama Administration and do not age well. In general, Grayson leaned toward an isolationist view of foreign policy. Rightly warry of another Iraq War, Grayson, however, took things too far, taking positions that line up much more with the modern MAGA movement or the TANKIE (Stalin-defending communists) left.

Shortly after Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in early 2014, Grayson defended the situation as a good thing and a “virtually bloodless transfer of power.” Grayson stated during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing…

“You may say that [Yanukovych] was thrown out of office for good reason. There are allegations against him that he was corrupt, there are allegations against him that he used the military against his own people to stay in power”…… “But the fact is that from the perspective of the Crimeans, their leader, the one that they placed in charge of their country, was thrown out of power.”

Grayson’s argument stemmed from the fact that Yanukovych, the President who fled the nation amid 2013 protests over his attempts to crack down on civil rights and move Ukraine closer to Russia, had won Crimea in the last election.

In this argument, Grayson relies on a faulty logic that the election results were directly tied to nationality. I discuss this here, but Ukraine’s divides were part nationality, economy, and the same cultural differences we see here in America. Click the link for more details, I don’t want to get on a major tangent here.

Grayson defended the completely ridiculous Crimea annexation referendum, which was held under Russian occupation. In it, he even called Ukraine’s existence into question.

“So it should come as no surprise … that the Crimeans had had enough, and they wanted to leave this artificial entity called the Ukraine,”

This is just straight up MAGA or TANKIE rhetoric. It has only aged worse as time went on. Grayson would later try to walk some of this back, voting YES on a resolution condemning the Crimea annexation and saying that while he believed a Crimea annexation referendum would pass, “admitted” that the circumstances of the already-held vote were not meeting with internal standards.

Grayson would also take up the case for staying out of the Syrian Civil War; something he commented on off and on from 2013 to 2015. For those who forgot, Syria devolved into civil war when the Arab Spring protests were met with violent crackdowns from the dictator Bashar al-Assad. Over the next several years, Assad would butcher his own people to remain in power, kicking off a multi-way war that would killed hundreds of thousands of people. Good/short background here.

Grayson remained a fierce opponent of Obama administration efforts to get involved in the conflict (which would have been on the anti-Assad side). Even after the reports of Assad using chemical gas on rebelling cities, Grayson insisted their was no “smoking gun” proof. This was a line that former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard also parroted. It should also be noted that a major backer of Assad in the conflict was Putin and Russia.

In 2015, a video from a fundraiser leaked where Grayson was seen trashing the intelligence community and the Obama administration’s position on Syria. He said Obama was “pressing for ‘another dumb war’” and claimed “evidence” of chemical attacks were FAKE. Regarding a classified file that proved the attack, but Grayson did not have access to since he wasn’t on the intelligence committee, Grayson said “because they were faking it.” Again with time the view that Assad gassed his own people has only grown in strength and was followed my more attacks. Grayson’s antagonism on this at the time was gaulling.

Looming Battles

These foreign policy issues definitely did not endear Grayson to the Obama administration of the Democratic Party mainstays. Coupled with these policy breaks where Grayson’s tone around them.

These conflicts didn’t impact his re-election bid. Grayson faced no real threat in his blue seat. After defeated an underfunded primary challenger with over 70% of the vote, Grayson secured an 11 point re-election margin in the general. That same day Charlie Crist beat Rick Scott by 12 points in the seat.

The narrower margins compared to 2012 are largely attributed to the lower Hispanic Democratic turnout for the midterm. That said, it was still not enough for such a seat to flip red.

This would be Grayson’s last re-election bid. In 2016, he would decide to run for US Senate. In that contest, all tensions between him and the Democratic establishment would explode on the national stage. Grayson would not handle well himself amid a flurry of political and personal controversy. It would all set the stage for his final fall influence.

To be concluded in Part 3!