Issue #174: Florida Qualifying News and Notes

What races to watch?

On Friday, qualifying wrapped up in Florida for its federal and judicial offices. While the qualifying for state legislative and local posts will not be until June, but the federal qualifying has yielded a handful of notable headlines. I wanted to take a look at a few of the most notable qualifying stories; both in terms of who did and who did NOT decide to run.

I won’t be delving super deep into any specific race, as longtime readers know I will be doing a very detailed primary preview when the time comes. That said, there are some key races to keep an eye on for both the August primary and November general election.

Lets dig in.

US Senate Qualifying

Since last year, the longtime assumption for Florida’s US Senate race was that Incumbent Rick Scott would face former Democratic Congressman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Qualifying has not changed this perception for me, though both have primaries. That said, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has a more aggressive primary field.

On the Republican side, Senator Scott will easily win his primary, but he has two opponents. One is John Columbus, who has raised just $12,000 and won’t make a dent. The other is businessman Keith Gross, who has said he’s willing to spend $30 million in his bid. Now to be clear, that is big talk that could amount to nothing. Though he has loaned his campaign $1.7 million already. Gross certainly can spend big and go after Scott, but there is little reason to think the wealthy Senator won’t have any trouble fending this off. I also doubt Gross follows through on that figure.

On the Democratic side, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (DMP for short) is the frontrunner, holding backing from national democrats and raising $7.3 million so far. She won a Miami-Dade Congressional seat in 2018, but got wiped out in Biden’s big Dade losses in 2020 (though she did outperform the President). Her biggest opponent is Stanley Campbell, an African-American businessman from south Florida, that has loaned his campaign $1 million. Campbell has the potential to take support from DMP, especially in the black community, and he is already running an aggressive campaign. He likewise has the backing of several black local officials from the Broward/Palm/Dade area. He is easily DMP’s biggest opponent, though she does remain a solid favorite for now. The question will be if Campbell can expand his support and how much funding he ultimately puts in or can raise.

Also on the Democratic side is former Congressman Alan Grayson, who many believe is running to pay off campaign debts. Grayson was once a prominent Florida Democrat, albeit an outspoken jackass that I stopped liking around 2010. After failed bids for Senate in 2016, Congress in 2018, and again in 2022, Grayson’s star is fallen to nothing. I am actually going to do a write-up on his fall from prominence later in the summer.

A few other no-names are running, including Brian Rush, who won Liberty County in the 2022 US Senate Primary against Val Demings.

This was thanks to Dixiecrat protest votes from conservatives showing up to vote for local races, which Rush could very well be the key avenue for again. I wrote about the 2022 protest vote here. This is really a Campbell vs DMP fight.

Ok, lets move on now to the Congressional qualifying of note.

Congressional Qualifying

I’m not going to touch on every seat right now, only the big notes. The Congressional map remains an extreme GOP gerrymandering, with a lawsuit over North Florida going to FL Supreme Court right now. That said, any court ruling, even if it goes the way of the black voters suing, will not effect the 2024 elections. This is the map for this cycle. I’ll be covering the FL Supreme Court arguments when they take place.

In terms of competitive races in November, only a few are even on the radar. The 15th, 13th, and 27th are at least in principle in play, though all favor the GOP right now. Democratic held seats - all the Biden ones - are likely safe as well.

Most districts have a contested primary for one side or the other.

Not every contested primary is equal though, with only a few of important note. I’ll cover each primary in the massive primary preview I’ll do in August. For now though, largely no-name challengers to incumbents like Matt Gaetz or Brian Mast are not the focus of this article.

One important primary qualifying was in the Florida 8th district, which covers Brevard County and part of Orange. A little bit of trickery was pulled at the last minute there. Congressman Bill Posey had decided to retire, but hid this fact until after qualifying ended. In the meantime, former State Senate President Mike Haridopolos, out of elections for a decade, filed just before qualifying ended. This has been confirmed as a bait and switch worked out behind the scenes. While Haridopolos does have a few primary opponents, neither are strong like a state rep or local commissioner might have been. As such, Haridopolos is easily favored to take the primary in this red seat. I’m likely going to do a write-up on this switch later in the summer, and delve into Haridopolos’ electoral career, which culminated with his crash-and-burn of a 2012 US Senate bid; a campaign that went so bad he dropped out before the GOP primary. Stay tuned on that.

Over in the Florida 11th, Congressman Dan Webster has been seen as potentially vulnerable since a much closer than expected win over far-right activist Laura Loomer in 2022.

Webster, a former Florida House Speaker, hails from Orange County. A creature of politics, anti-Incumbent sentiment has hit him bad. His narrow win in 2022 saw him lose places like the Villages retirement community, an area that control 80% of Sumter County’s primary vote. This community is full of residents who don’t care about Webster’s long service.

This time, Webster is facing former State Rep Anthony Sabatini, who is equally far-right. Sabatini represented Lake County, a big boost compared with Loomer, though he just came off losing a primary for the Florida 7th in 2022. That said, Sabatini is a real threat to Webster. This is a major race to watch.

Continuing to track west, Florida 15th Congresswoman Laurel Lee has at least some of a headache in her primary. Donald Trump sent shockwaves through Florida politics when he called out Lee and asked for a primary against her. This likely all stems from Lee backing DeSantis in the Presidential primary.

“Any great MAGA Republicans looking to run against Laurel Lee in Florida’s 15th Congressional District? IF SO, PLEASE STEP FORWARD!”

Lee avoided a strong name from running against her, with failed Florida 14th candidate James Judge and former Californian congressional candidate Jennifer Barbosa being the only filings. Neither are strong, but of course Trump fully backing one could instantly hurt Lee. That said, Trump does not have a perfect primary track record anymore, and the failure of a more prominent candidate to get in shows that. Lee is likely favored right now, however, this could change. As such, Democrats are keeping an eye on this. At only Trump +3, a Lee primary loss, or Lee not getting all the GOP vote in November, could lead to a Democratic pickup. As a result, Hillsborough Commissioner Pat Kemp qualified and is a strong Democratic recruit. No doubt Florida and national Republicans are pleading with Trump to let Lee hold her seat, as a primary upset would give Kemp a perfect opportunity to flip the district for Democrats.

The final qualifying note for today is the lack of a qualifying in the Florida 20th district. The black-majority seat covering parts of Broward and Palm is held by Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who won a special election in 2021 by FIVE VOTES.

The seat was redrawn to lose the Miramar portion in the south, but otherwise remains similar. McCormick, who is under an ethics investigation for violating campaign finance laws, and has been subject to questions about possible misuse of COVID funds, seemed vulnerable to a primary from former 2 Live Crew rapper Luke Campbell, brother of Senate candidate Stanley. Campbell left Florida reports waiting to see if his talk of running, which included sparing with Matt Gaetz back and forth, would come to fruition. In the end, however, Campbell did not qualify, largely citing federal rules about income disclosure. With no one else qualifying, McCormick has been re-elected unopposed. Considering her controversies, this is a stunning, but also perfectly Florida, development.

I’ll be covering the above races and others in my August primary preview.

Judicial & State Attorney Qualifying

In addition to federal qualifying, April was the deadline for candidates in judicial races. This included not just judges, but also State Attorney and Public defenders. Supreme Court and Appeals Court judges go through a retention process, while county and district judges are direct candidate elections on non-partisan ballots.

Two Supreme Court justices will face retention in November, both conservatives: Renatha Francis & Meredith Sasso. With the conservative court under greater fire than ever before after implementing Florida’s 6-week abortion ban, both justices have the ire of pro-choice groups. Retention has never failed in Florida, with voters largely just retaining, but more and more the retention votes are showing some degree of partisanship. I looked at the 2022 retention votes here. While I expect both to be retained, it will be worth watching how politized the vote gets.

Lets look at the State Attorney races.

Florida has 20 Judicial Circuits, each electing a State Attorney and Public Defender. Only District 20 is elected in midterms, with the rest elected in Presidential contests. The Circuits are seen below. I actually wrote about the 2016 State Attorney elections back in 2018. Read this article for more background on the dynamics in Florida.

Note the circuits are not designed to balance population. Their borders largely aim around access to the court system, as each operates independently of the other. Only five State Attorney’s have opponents who qualified, though two are easily the most high profile.

In Hillsborough’s District 13 and the Orange/Osceola District 9, Ron DeSantis suspended both State Attorney’s for blatantly political reasons. I wrote about those suspensions, and the broad suspension power the Governor has, below.

Issue #122: The Ron DeSantis Assault on Democracy

Both of these instances have seen the suspended State Attorney run to take back their posts.

In Circuit 9, the suspended Monique Worrell has qualified. Her suspension came from a vague “she hasn’t prosecuted enough” claim that doesn’t hold up to the slightest bit of scrutiny. This was part of DeSantis’ continued efforts to look tough and “own” the Democrats as his Presidential campaign continued to falter.

She won her post in 2020 in a competitive primary and easier general.

Worrell is the only Democrat running and hence will move right to November. Meanwhile, Andrew Bain, who DeSantis appointed, is running as an independent. In addition, two Republicans are going to have a primary, meaning the November contest will be a 3-way race. Worrell is heavily favored to take back this seat. What DeSantis does after that remains to be seen.

Over in Hillsborough, State Attorney Andrew Warren was suspended when he talked about using his prosecutorial discretion to not punish women over the then-15-week abortion ban. Warren won his post in 2016, knocking off the GOP incumbent, and was re-elected in 2020.

Warren has a primary in Elizabeth Martinez Strauss, who has supported Warren politically but argues its safer to go with a fresh face. Warren himself had debated and gone back and forth on running again, but has made the move and should be favored in the primary.

In November, appointed incumbent Suzy Lopez is running as a Republican. This will be a major race likely to get nationwide attention. I’d say Warren is a favorite because Hillsborough, 2022 landslide aside, leans blue. That said, Democrats are suffering from a voter registration drop (largely thanks to lack of investment). However, just this week the Biden campaign announced its first state field office would be in the county. This whole region will likely get a great deal of attention and money, and Democrats likely hold up Warren as a major pro-choice figure the same day Florida votes on a referendum on abortion rights.

Meanwhile, the 15th circuit, aka Palm Beach County, is an open contest as Democrat Dave Aronberg retires. Several Democrats and Republicans are running. I’ll cover more details here in my August primary preview.

The other State Attorney race of note will be in Circuit 8, a very narrow Biden circuit held by GOP Incumbent Brian Kramer. Democratic challenger Yvens Pierre-Antoine will be an underdog in the contest, as this is the narrowest of Biden seats, with some of that boosted by Gainesville suburbs likely to vote GOP for a prosecutor. The circuit’s political divide is thanks to Alachua holding a majority of the vote, but surrounded by very red rural neighbors.

For Antoine, dominating in Gainesville/Alachua would be critical. We will see how that race plays out and how much it matches the partisan bent of the circuit.

There is also a GOP primary in the 14th and several primaries for public defenders. I’ll be covering those in more detail in my future primary preview.

Now onto the June Legislative and Local Qualifying!