Issue #132: Manitoba is the 1st Canadian Province to Elect a First Nations Premier

A Historic Election Last Week

Today, October 9th 2023, marks Indigenous People’s Day. In honor of that, I wanted to delve into the election from Manitoba last week. In that contest, the province elected Wab Kinew, a member of the First Nations indigenous tribe, as the state premier. This made Kinew the 1st First Nations premier of any Canadian Province in history.

This also marks the first time that Manitoba has had an indigenous (which can include FN, Inuit, and Metis) premier since John Norquay in the 1880s.

Lets look at this historic election.

State of Manitoba Politics

Heading into the elections, Manitoba, part of the Western Prairie Provinces of Canada, was ruled by the Progressive Conservatives; the broadly right-of-center party in Canada. In the Western Provinces, the state-level elections are normally fights between the Conservatives and the New Democrats; which are broadly left-of-center. In 2019, the election was largely a battle between PC and the NDP.

The province is largely very rural, with populations heavily clustered in Winnipeg.

Winnipeg itself is half of the province’s population. It is also the original home of Wrestler Chris Jericho. You should never confuse it with Toronto.

It should be noted that politics within the provinces can be very different from federal Canadian politics. While the federal Liberal Party is left-of-center, in Manitoba its much more of the centrist party. In places like British Columbia, the Liberals are a right-of-center organization. Federally, the incumbent Liberal Government is very unpopular, with polls projecting a landslide win for the conservatives right now.

Despite Conservative fortunes at the top of federal polls, provincial politics have their own dynamics. The Manitoba PCs have been largely trailing election polls for several years. Their former leader and Premier, Brian Pallister, stepped down in 2021. Pallister had received criticism for backtracking on initially supporting social distancing rules around COVID-19; but then pushing an opening-up of the province even as future waves hit. The result led to surging hospitalization rates, the highest per-capita in Canada, and people dying in rides to hospitals in other provinces due to lack of beds.

With Manitoba, like many parts of the world, struggling to steady its economy after the pandemic, the ruling party has struggled to win back the support of voters.

Indigenous Canadian Relations

Pallister also generated controversy when he defended Canada’s historic Residency Schools for Indigenous children. These schools, and the crimes associated with them, have been a painful wound in the nation - which is currently undergoing a major re-examination of the practice. These schools were set up to forcefully assimilate indigenous children. In addition to the practice of cultural elimination, which qualifies as geocide under all modern definitions, the schools were often filled with violence. Thousands of potential unmarked graves have been tracked down in recent years. In 2022, Pope Francis formally apologized for the Catholic Church’s role in the schools. The Canadian House of Commons has also unanimously voted that the schooling policy was an act of genocide.

After Pallister defended the schools, saying

“the people who came here to this country, before it was a country and since, didn't come here to destroy anything. They came here to build. They came to build better.”

This led to his Minister of ‘Indigenous Reconciliation and Northern Relations’ to resign in protest. Then, Alan Lagimodiere, the new minister, hit the same controversy by also defending the “noble intent” behind the schools. This led to Wab Kinew, then the opposition leader, to call out Lagimodiere publicly during Lagimodiere’s press conference.

Manitoba itself is 18% Indigenous; with 10% being First Nations and 7% being Metis. That population is heavily concentrated in the Northern regions of Manitoba, but with sizeable minorities further south.

Indigenous voters are a force in Manitoba politics, and the controversies further hurt Conservative standing.

The 2023 Campaign

The ruling Conservatives put off the election as long as they could, with this month being the latest a vote could be held. After Pallister stepped down, Heather Stefanson was elected to be the party leader and Premier of Manitoba. However, heading into the election’s final stretch, the incumbent Government was unpopular. Stefanson and the PCs made cost-of-living issues their main priority, while Kinew and the NDP focused on healthcare overall.

One major issue for the New Democrats was ensuring the anti-PC vote consolidated around them. The NDP worked to cultivate Liberal and Green Party voters, emphasizing that only a vote for the NDP could result in a new Government.

Despite much of the controversy around Indigenous issues, many of those remained sidelined during the campaign. What stood out to most observers was that Stefanson, despite being a moderate as an MP for years, took the party in a clear right-wing push for the campaign. The PCs, clearly looking to change the narrative as they lagged in the polls, moved toward culture war issues more than they ever had before.

One lightening-rod issue revolved around the Prairie Green landfill. There, it is believed the bodies of two murdered indigenous women lay. However, due to the presence of asbestos and other toxic materials, the Conservatives have declared they won’t support a search - with costs also cited. Searching the landfill indeed would have to be a careful process - so much so that the federal government paid for a feasibility study. However, considering the LONG history of disregard for missing and murdered indigenous men and women, the lack of a major effort to recover the bodies has re-opened many wounds about the care that Governments give when an indigenous person is killed.

Kinew, for his part, has walked a tight-rope on many of these topics, with political experts pointing out his need to not be framed simply as a “First Nations candidate” and hence risk a racial backlash. It is speculated that the Conservatives hoped Kinew would “take the bait” - but the party largely remained focused on economic and healthcare issues.

The Results

The right-wing shift from the Progressive Conservatives alarmed several of its moderate MPs. It also clearly did work, as on election day, the New Democrats won the popular vote by 3 points, and flipped several Winnipeg seats to secure a majority.

The New Democrats took 14 seats from the Progressive Conservatives and two from the Liberals. This left the Liberal Party with just one seat - with Party leader Dougald Lamont losing his own riding. The NDP wins were largest in Winnipeg, with the Conservatives only holding onto 3 of the city seats.

The Party support shifts for the province can been seen below, broken down by Winnipeg vs the largely rural rest of the province. As the totals show, more votes came out of the city than they did in 2019.

One major item that helped the NDP was the shrinking in Liberal and “other” (largely Greens) party vote. The vote share for Greens/Indis and other small parties in Winnipeg nearly erased entirely.

There were a few ridings, however, where splits did allow the Progressive Conservatives sneak by

• Tuxedo (Winnipeg) - The PCs edged NDP by 263 votes, with the Liberals taking 2,219

• Brandon West (rural) - The PCs edged NDP by just 95 votes, with the Greens taking 282

Below is how each party improved or weakened by riding. Overall, only a few ridings saw the New Democrats lose ground. The Conservatives and Liberals, meanwhile, did worse in almost all ridings.

In a good example of the effect of local campaigns, the best improvement for Conservatives was in the riding of Keewatinook, which is over 95% First Nations. The reason? PC candidate Michael Birch, himself part of the Indigenous community, made an aggressive campaign for an area that the PCs largely ignore. While the NDP lost some ground there, the Liberals lost more. In the end, however, Ian Bushie would still easily hold the seat for the NDP, taking 58% to Birch’s 35%.

The results were overall a great night for the NDP, with a solid majority of seats and a massive turn-around from 2019. Wab Kinew has been elevated to Premier, while Heather Stefanson has opted to step down as head of the Progressive Conservatives.

It was a historic vote for Manitoba.

Now if you want to a nice short summary about why this day should no longer be called Columbus Day, and don’t want a 10 hour lecture from me, just watch this video.