Issue #60: Florida's Upcoming Primaries in "Safe" State House Districts

Some races are closed, a handful will be open

We are just four weeks away from the Florida primaries. I am working on a detailed primary preview of up and down ballot races. In preparation for that, I decided to do a short piece looking at which state house primaries were going to be open or closed.

Florida’s Primary Laws

Like many states, Florida holds closed primaries. This means a voter must be registered to the party if they want to cast a ballot in their primaries. While some states have a semi-open system, which allows non-partisan voters to pick a primary ballot, Florida offers no option. Want to vote in the GOP or DEM primary? Then you better be registered to one. There is one exception; if their is no general election opponent.

Florida requires that a primary open up to all voters if the only candidates filed are running in one party’s primary. If anyone is filed for the general, then the primary remained closed. The general election opponent can be the member of an opposed party, a non-partisan challenger, or a write-in challenger. The write-in inclusion is known as the write-in loophole, which has been exploited by both parties for years. While it is not always utilized, it is not uncommon for party leaders, or campaign consultants, to recruit someone to file as a write-in. The cost of filing is limited, as their is no fee or petition requirements. The greatest cost is increased scrutiny in the practice. For example, Palm Beach State Attorney Dave Aronberg has made it a political goal to call out write-in candidates as a sneaky way to close primaries; avoiding the spirit of the law. Efforts to remove the loophole from the law have been unsuccessful. However, Aronberg has gone after write-in candidates who screwed up their paperwork, hoping to reduce the willingness of people to file as write-ins. In the case above, the candidate’s filing closed the GOP primary for Clay Sheriff. However, once the primary was over, the write-in dropped out.

I’ll state, for the record, I do not like going after the candidates. Efforts should be directed at consultants. Many write-in candidates are die-hards for a party that are recruited by consultants. They often do not understand the scrutiny being put on them. No joke, as a graduate student, I was asked if I would be a write-in for a race. I declined. I was politically involved, but even then, does anyone think a 20-something year old Matthew would be more to blame for closing a primary than the person who called me?

I support ending the loophole. However, I hope the law can be amended.

The 2022 State House Races

Many districts in Florida are heavily skewed toward one party. Is some of this a product of gerrymandered lines? Yes. Florida’s State House map, while far better than the Congressional gerrymander, still have clear efforts to short-circuit Democratic growth in areas like Tampa and Jacksonville. That said, many/most SAFE districts are a result of geography. Using partisan performance (details here) and fundraising, the below districts are what I would consider “SAFE” for either party and have contest primaries. The map also shows which districts have closed or open primaries.

I would note that I consider districts 29, 87, 118, 119, and 120 to be “Likely GOP” seats that have closed primaries. Meanwhile, districts 47 and 113 are “Likely DEM” and have contested closed primaries. However, I didn’t feel comfortable marking them as safe, though I think the respective parties are heavily favored in them.

There are 27 districts where a closed primary is almost a lock to decide the new representative. In addition, 13 districts are open, meaning just Democrats or just Republicans filed. You can see the full list below. I included if the closed primary was due to a legit candidate filed for November, or the write-in loophole was used.

The write-in loophole was employed just five times for the state house districts. The usage of the loophole has declined in recent years. Part of this is the filing of opposition candidates, erasing the need. Added scrutiny has also likely factored.

These districts, highlighted below, will hold open primaries, available for all voters, in August. I included a likely partisan breakdown of the votes cast, based on 2020 primary turnout. Most districts are deep-red or deep-blue, leading the opposition party to have only a modest impact. Districts 50, 51, and 56, however, are all much more divided.

The one x-factor that can vary by campaign and district, is how likely partisans are to cast ballots in the other side’s primary. If you are a Democrat showing up to vote in Florida’s panhandle, and have the GOP primary for HD5 on your ballot, and everyone is running as a MAGA Republican, are you really likely to cast a ballot there? This cross-over varies and can often depend on if a campaign directly recruits these voters.

Open Democratic Primaries and “Bleaching”

In the case of the democratic open seats, all are in some form or another, minority-opportunity districts. Many minority-performing districts in Florida are not majority-minority, but rather majority non-white via their election turnout. Florida’s redistricting criteria utilize functional analysis, which is studying past election results, to confirm if they favor black or Hispanic voters. I delved deep into functional analysis in this past article - which looked at minority performance in Miami-Dade districts.

The example from a draft of HD117 shows how the district, despite being majority-Hispanic, is actually a black-performing district. Why? Because the Democratic primary is majority-black, and the democratic nominee has always won the general.

These types of analysis often assume a primary election will be closed. However, the opening of primaries, especially Democratic primaries, leads to an influx of white votes; “bleaching” the vote. So how does the opening of the six Democratic primaries effect their minority status? Lets look at each.

The first open primary Democratic seat is HD44. This is district is 43% Hispanic VAP. It is not a protected Hispanic seat, but does reflect a growing Hispanic population around Orlando. The district would be 40% white, 28% Hispanic in a closed primary, but will be whiter with all voters eligible.

The overall effect on HD44 doesn’t radically alter the makeup of the district; which is a plurality white seat a growing Hispanic voter pool.

Down in south Florida, HD97 is a majority-black district located in central Broward county. The district would be over 68% black in a closed primary. Even opened to all voters, the district will still be over 60% black.

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Meanwhile, in Northern Broward County, HD98 is a black-access district. This seat 35% black VAP and 35% white VAP. It is generally a black-opportunity seat, with many of its white democrats being Jewish retirees. In a closed primary, the makeup would be almost 50% black. However, an open primary flips the largest racial block to white voters.

This is the lone open-primary district where the opening causes the largest racial voting block to flip.

Another central Broward district, HD99, is majority-black. Like 97, the district remains black-majority in the primary, regardless of being open or closed.

One of the most notable white voting blocks in the district is Wilton Manors. Located in the NE end of the seat, this city is home to a historic and sizeable LGBT community.

In Miami-Dade’s HD108, the district has a notable geographic divide. The inland precincts on the west end are heavily black. The precincts along the water are a combination of white and Hispanic. The open primary will remain around majority-black, but Hispanic voters become the second largest voting block.

The final open primary race is further inland in Miami-Dade. The district is actually a majority-Hispanic district. The seat 58% Hispanic VAP, 40% black VAP. However, due to weaker Hispanic turnout (and lower citizenship rates), black voters still control the elections. Regardless of being open or closed, black voters make up over 60% of the primary.

HD109 and its notable deviation between census and voting figures further highlight the importance of looking at election data if your goal is to draw minority-performing seats.

Conclusion

This just aimed to be a quick look at which districts will see a primary likely decide the next representative. I’ll be working on a breakdown for the Senate as well. My final primary preview, which is likely to be a week before the elections, will be detailed in-depth with data and candidate dynamics.