Issue #48: A Detailed Look at Florida's New Congressional Districts
So, so, so many details
Well, it is finally done. After the redistricting session ended, I began working on a deep-dive into the new Congressional districts of Florida. 5,000 words and countless maps later, it is out. It all can’t fit on substack, so here is a link to everything you care to know about the new districts and how they change from 2015.
!The Deep Dive Article!
In there, you will see detailed partisan breakdowns for every statewide election from 2012 to 2020. All those races confirm what we already know, this is a deep-red map.
I go into how each district changes from 2015. Some districts see only small changes, while others have been radically redone.
I delve into different regions of the state and how the lines were drawn to ensure Republican majorities in the delegation for the entire decade. For example, looking at the gerrymandering of the Tampa Bay region.
Looking at how the 13th district, a marginal Democratic seat, is reoriented to give Republicans an advantage.
I show how changes to districts like CD13 are broken down at a partisan level. Here we see that the area removed from the 13th was overwhelmingly Democratic, while the new regions are GOP.
I dig into Democratic and Republican primary in different districts. I also delve into racial performance in the districts. For example, I go into how majority-Hispanic CD9 is still only plurality Hispanic in its voting strength.
In the deep-red districts, I look at the critical GOP primaries. For example, the new CD11 will see the Villages/Sumter County as its largest vote block.
I also delve into the diverse Democratic primaries in different deep-blue districts. The 24th, for example, now will include not just black primary voters, but a sizable pocket of Hispanic and white voters from the coastline.
I also look at how districts may trend over the next decades. Districts like CD7 have been redrawn to favor Republicans. However, Democratic swings are happening in Seminole County. Whether Democrats can overpower Volusia’s right-wing trend remains to be seen.
All this and more in the deep dive.