Issue 4: FL-13 Primary and Gambling on the Ballot
Dems are lining up for the 13th district. Seminole Tribe vs DraftKings on the 2022 ballot?
Good Thursday to everyone! One more day to Friday, and hence one more day to the 4th of July weekend. If you are based in Florida, you probably already know the weather for the weekend is a little iffy. If your plans get rained out and you need something to do, I recommend the HBO miniseries on John Adams.
I’ve watch the series like four times.
Anyway!
Florida 13th Primary
We are just over a year from the 2022 Florida primaries, and already heavyweight battle is emerging for Florida’s 13th district, currently represented by Democrat Charlie Crist. With the congressman opting for a Gubernatorial run, multiple Democrats have put their names forward to run for the seat. The district is modestly Democratic, voting for Joe Biden by 4%. Republicans feel they have a shot at the seat, and plenty remains uncertain with redistricting.
The old 13th, before the court-ordered 2015 re-map, was more conservative. The old map cut out the black population of south Pinellas County and instead linked them with the 14th district; represented by Democrat Kathy Castor. The legislature had argued this made the 14th a ‘coalition seat’ with a non-white population over 50%. However, the voting data showed that since the districts Hispanic and Black population did not vote cohesively the coalition claim wasn’t valid.
There has been speculation that with a more conservative state court, the Republicans might aim for the old layout again. However, such a move would carry a good deal of legal risk; sparking an illegal racial packing argument. In reality, the legislature likely could make the district more swingish by messing around with the districts northern border.
So far three prominent Democrats have filed for the seat (a further indicator that they don’t see the seat lurching right). Ben Diamond, the State Representative for HD-68, announced shortly after Crist’s Governor announcement. Diamond has a strong base in the heart of the district and has generate money and support quick. One of Diamond’s opponents is a familiar face - Eric Lynn, a former National Security Official with the Obama administration. Lynn, who originally was going to run for the 13th in 2016, moved over to run for state representative after Crist entered the Congressional fight. Lynn raised a decent $100,000 for that race, but lost to none other than Diamond himself.
A Diamond vs Lynn rematch would have been interesting enough, but both candidates got a shock when State Rep Michele Rayner announced she would be throwing her hat into the Democratic primary as well. Rayner was elected to HD-70, a sprawling African-American district that touches four counties. Rayner won a four-way primary, becoming the first LGBT woman of color in the history of the Florida legislature.
Rayner, a civil rights attorney who has worked with Ben Crump, was strongest in the Pinellas portion of the district.
Rayner and Diamond are so far the clear frontrunners for the primary. Both represent solid chunks of Democratic voters; however much of the district is still unrepresented by a candidate. It would not be surprising if more Democratic candidates enter the race.
In the context of the national debate of establishment vs progressive, Diamond is for sure the more establishment-friendly candidate. Diamond had to spend much of his time in the legislature being a more left-of-center politicians because his seat, until recently, was not safely blue. Rayner comes much more from the progressive camp of the party. How much this dynamic plays out over the next year remains to be seen.
A quick mention on the GOP primary, this is the craziest story of the year.
Gambling on the Ballot?
Looks like Florida could have a big money ballot fight next year. Back in May, Florida passed a massive gambling compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida. I delved into and the history of gambling in Florida in this article.
Part of this compact was a provision giving the tribe the rights to run sports betting. The monopoly angered companies like FanDuel and DraftKings.
Well, just a few weeks ago, I got a call from a polling firm
By random chance, I was called to take part in a poll about a hypothetical ballot measure that would have expanded the right to run sports betting, and directed the state revenues toward education. Well, turns out this is indeed happening, because a Fanduel and DraftKings backed amendment has been filed. The backers of this measure aim to get this thing on the 2022 ballot, which will not be easy or cheap. The Seminole Tribe has made their opposition to this clear.
So in other words - the campaign world of Florida is about to be - as they say
Let the money flow.