Issue #29: The Battle Lines of Florida's Congressional Redistricting
Its the House vs Senate vs..... DeSantis?
Its been a busy week in Florida redistricting. The State Senate redistricting committee has passed maps for Congress and State Senate. The house is saying they are likely a couple weeks from final maps. And now, Ron DeSantis has released his own proposal. So lets get through this one step at a time.
The State Senate Congressional Plan
For those of you following redistricting in Florida closely, you will know the State Senate’s plan for Congress has generated a great deal of praise. The plan is viewed as fair on the partisan scale and respects minority voter protections. How that map breaks down by President can be seen below. The map gives Trump 16 seats to Biden’s 12. However, the 26th and 27th both voted for Gillum, causing a 14-14 tie in 2018 (same for the Senate race).
All in all, the map ebbs and flows with Florida’s demographic swings very well. The map passed out of the Senate redistricting committee last week.
The House is working through its own plans; which may take a couple weeks. We do have two drafts from the House; and those reveal what is likely to be the biggest source of debate - Orlando.
The Debate over Orlando’s Black Voters
The biggest gap between the House and Senate appears to be over whether or not the 10th district, a black-performing seat in Orlando, is protected. This goes to the heart of the Fair Districts Amendments and the rules on preventing retrogression in a redistricting plan. This means a dilution of minority voting power; in this case through elimination of minority districts.
In the 2016 redistricting process, Florida went from 3 to 4 black-performing seats.
The 5th and 10th under the current Congressional maps are black-performing thanks to the “functional analysis” of voting behavior. Long story short, both seats are solidly Democratic and have majority-black primaries. Since 2016, both seats have had African-American Representatives; Al Lawson and Val Demings. The Fair Districts Amendments would view both seats as PROTECTED from retrogression; which the Florida Senate redistricting staff insists; with the support of the GOP Chairman.
Keeping with this viewpoint, the Senate redistricting plan preserves the 10th. The seat currently shows black voters make up a plurality of registered democrats in the seat. However, population shifts, as well as turnout dynamics, mean black voters can and have made up under 50% of the primary. However, they consistently remain the largest voting block.
In addition, since Orlando’s democratic voters have shown a greater willingness to cross racial lines on voting (part of the Gingles metrics on redistricting), 50%+ is not necessarily needed.
The Senate’s plan for Congress keeps the status quo in Orlando. The 9th district is now a majority-Hispanic seat. The 7th remains a largely white district. The 10th, meanwhile, retains its nature as a black-access district. The Senate’s plan is similar to House Plan 8001; which likewise maintains the status quo for Orlando. However, both these plans are miles apart from plan 8003.
House Plan 8003 is quiet the gerrymander. I talked much more about that in this substack post. It stretches western Orange County all the way to Citrus. It creates a Democratic vote-sink right in the middle of Orlando.
This plan shrinks the numbers of Orlando Democrats from 3 to 2.
The biggest issue here is this proposed 7th in the house. Remember, the Senate views the current 10th largely protected (or more specifically, black voters in Orlando are protected). So what does each redistricting plan do for black voters in Orlando?
The Senate plan draws a seat where African-Americans lead in the primary.
If we look at House plan 8001, we see a similar layout for CD-10 and similar racial breakdowns.
Then comes plan 8003; and this CD7. It is NOT plurality black in a primary. Instead, white voters lead black voters by 7%.
That district doesn’t even get all of the black voters of Orlando into CD7.
When questioned by Joe Geller on committee, the house staff claimed Orlando black voters were not protected from retrogression. This now puts them in direct conflict with the Senate’s conclusion.
The DeSantis-Mander!
We had some breaking news Sunday night when the Governor’s office released their own plan - an insane gerrymander.
This plan, of course, blatantly violates rules against Retrogression. Not only is the post-2016 CD10 gone, but so is the 5th district - a seat that has existed since the 1990s. We go from 4 black-performing districts to just 2! The 23rd and 24th, both in south Florida, would be the only districts where black voters can elect a candidate of their choice.
Hispanic Seats in Name Only
The map has major flaws in south Florida as well. The DeSantis map creates 5 districts that are 50%+ Hispanic Voting-Age population. One in Orlando (same as all legislative drafts) and FOUR in South Florida (up from three). But it does this by cracking Hispanics to make up just over 50% of CDs 26 and 20. However, as we have known since the 1990s, turnout and citizenship issues mean you need more than 50% for functioning Hispanic districts. Both of these seats are far from Hispanic majority in voting power. Both only have Hispanics at around 40% of 2020 votes cast.
The 20th, an heir to the 23rd, is 50% Hispanic VAP, but its Biden +14 and has Hispanics being outpaced by white and black voters in the Democratic primary; making up just 22%.
The 26th, which is the heir to the current 25th, is even worse than expected. It is a solidly GOP seat, and its GOP primary would be 2/3 white! It pairs almost all of lilly-white Collier with a cracked Hialeah.
This would mean a Hispanic-performing seat since the 1990s now would not giving far more voting power to white voters. This is a major VRA and Fair Districts violation.
This map actually does a good job of highlighting an issue with just relying on Census data. Yes you could draw 5 Hispanic districts in Florida (based on census figures). But in reality you risk cracking voters so much you hurt Hispanic representation overall. The Census is NOT all you have to look at.
I don’t know what Ron’s idea is here. Though this is my working theory.
This plan comes after conservatives online have screamed in anger over the lack of gerrymandering. We will see how this all shakes out. The Senate is on record for what voters they view as protected. Any backtracking down won’t look good before the Florida Courts, no matter how conservative it is.