We are in the heat of the Florida summer and elections are fast approaching. Florida’s primary, scheduled for August 18th, is just two months away; with mail-ballots set to go out in in mid July. Today I want to talk about two primary elections, both located in South Florida; the 20th and 24th districts. These districts are home to crowded Democratic Primaries for safe blue seats.
What is especially notable about both races is that there is a very real possibility that one or both could send Florida’s 1st Gay Congressman to Washington DC. For Pride Month I wanted to discuss these races and how Elijah Manley and Shevrin Jones could make history in their respective seats.
Lets dive in!
Race and Sexuality in South Florida
The 20th and 24th districts are located in Broward and Miami-Dade County respectively. Both seats have long been heavily Black and solidly Democratic seats dating back to the 1992 redistricting process. In the recent DeSantis gerrymandering of the state’s congressional map, both districts were structured to be Democratic vote-sinks. Both, however, retain large Black shares of the vote.
I’ll get into the electoral dynamics of both districts further down. However, the critical item here is that both seats maintain a majority-Black Democratic primary; which is the race that is tantamount to election. Both primaries are filled with serious candidates for the party nomination.
Both districts have large shares of not only African-Americans, those who trace their ancestry to slavery, but also a solid share of Caribbean Black voters; namely from Haiti and Jamaica. As a result, these communities have historically been more socially conservative. Primaries in the 2000s and 2010s often saw clashes between more liberal and socially conservative candidates in many of the heavily Black and/or Caribbean seats. Issues around abortion rights and religious charter schools often got the headlines, but LGBT rights was also a debating point.
In 2008, due to more socially conservative views within the Black community, both the 20th and 24th districts voted for the same-sex marriage ban on the ballot that year.
I wrote in great detail on the 2008 marriage referendum in this article. To summarize the point; in Black and Hispanic communities, a religious conservativism coupled with a macho attitude led to a good deal of tension between LGBT issues/candidates and voters in such districts. Now I don’t want to over-exaggerate the point, as my deep-dive article will show the biggest sources of opposition to LGBT rights was in rural white voters; and today white Evangelicals remain the most steadfast opponents to same-sex marriage and transgender rights.
The story in the Black community when it comes to LGBT rights is very different today. Polling has shown that Black voters are now positive on same-sex relationships and homosexuality. PewResearch polls showed that among Black protestants, support for same-sex marriage has gone from 39% in 2007 to 61% in 2025. Gallop also shows that non-white voters broadly have 68% support for same-sex marriage, which is higher than the 66% it is for whites. This trend really began to shift around 2012 with Obama’s endorsement of same-sex marriage; something I wrote about ALL the way back then.
More socially conservative Democrats have gone down in defeat in more recent primaries. In 2020, State Rep Al Jacquet lost re-nomination after anti-gay attacks he threw at his opponent (who was straight but came from a LGBT household) let to Democratic members abandoning him. Then in 2022, James Bush III, the most notably anti-gay Democrat in the chamber, lost his re-nomination as many Democratic leaders abandoned him. In addition, Florida has seen several LGBT candidates get elected out of Black and Hispanic communities. I have written about LGBT trail-blazers in Florida in this article. As of right now, Florida has four openly gay state lawmakers. These are….
Shevrin Jones: Florida’s fist openly gay Black State House member and eventually first openly gay State Senator
Carlos Guillermo Smith: Florida’s first openly gay Hispanic state House member and a current State Senator
Michele Rayner: Florida’s first openly queer Black woman
Mitch Rosenwald: Florida first openly gay Jewish member.
Despite a long history of gay rights activism and trailbreakers in the State, Florida has never sent an openly gay person to Washington. However, with the candidacies of Shevrin Jones and Elijah Manley, this may well change. I’m going to look at both races individually; looking at the dynamics in each race and who the respective frontrunners are.
Lets start off with the 24th district.
Florida 24th Congressional
The newly-drawn 24th Congressional district is located in North Miami-Dade and South Broward Counties. Stretching from Hollywood and down into Miami, the seat connects the Black communities of the area; with other notable cities including Miramar, Miami Gardens, Opa-Locka, and North Miami. Estimates are that the 2024 Democratic primary in this district was just under 72% Black.
The seat is home to a large Caribbean population; who make up an estimated 22% of the district’s residents. These voters, who are predominantly Haitian, are especially clustered in the North Miami area.
The Haitian community has continued to build up a power base in the area; holding most local offices in North Miami and electing their first county commissioner back in 2010. Many Democratic primaries in the area have seen battles between Caribbean and non-Caribbean Black Democrats.
The district has been held by Frederick Wilson since 2010. Since her 2012 re-election, Wilson never faced any serious challengers in the Democratic Primary for her seat. Wilson initially appeared likely to run for re-election, but over the late spring, rumors began to emerge she would retire. Finally on May 29th, Wilson formally announced she would not run for re-election, setting off a mad dash of candidates to file.
Shev Jones the Frontrunner
The frontrunner quickly emerged in State Senator Shevrin Jones; who announced he would forgo his State Senate re-election to instead make the bid for Congress. Jones has been in the Florida legislature since 2012; initially holding a Broward-based State House Seat. He was elevated to a Senate seat in 2020 and ran for re-election in a Dade-only Senate seat in 2022 thanks to redistricting. Much of his time in the state legislature has seen him overlap with the new 24th district.
Jones has long been a liberal voice in the state legislature and has been well-regarded by colleagues across the isle. Jones has drawn national attention over the years for his advocacy over police reform and gun control. When Jones was initially elected to the State House, his sexual orientation did not come up. However, in 2018, Jones confirmed that he was a gay man; making him Florida’s first openly gay Black male in the state legislature.
In 2020, State Senate District 35 was opened up, and Jones was one of several high profile candidates to run for the position. I documented the primary in more detail in this article. Jones’s opponents included former State Senator Daphne Campbell, former state house member Cynthia Ann Stafford, outgoing State House member Barbara Watson, and Miami Gardens commissioner Erhabor Ighodaro.
Among the candidate pool, Campbell and Ighodaro took the much more socially conservative block of the primary. Ighodaro, however, led the charge with appeals to “Christian conservative view” - statements that came as word of an anti-gay whisper campaign was going on against Jones. Campbell meanwhile defender her opposition to gay adoption from her time in the legislature. Then, late in the campaign, an attack text message went out pointing out Jones could not donate blood due to being gay. Through all of this, Jones maintained his dignity and rose above the attacks, blowing them off and sticking to issues at the core of the district.
When the results came in, the primary was a resounding victory for Jones. With 43% of the vote, almost 30 points above Daphne Campbell, Jones easily secured the democratic nomination. Ighodaro came in 4th and didn’t win a single precinct in his city.
Jones easily won the general election over a write-in candidate.
In 2022, Jones had to run for re-election after redistricting took place. His district had been reconfigured to only be based in Miami-Dade county, stretching from the heavily Black interior and into the more white and Hispanic coasts like Miami Beach. In this contest, Jones again faced Ighodaro, while a third candidate, Pitchie Escarment also ran in the contest. I documented this primary in more detail here. Once again Ighodaro tried to play up social conservatism, saying at a candidate forum that “I don’t believe in 110 pronouns.” Jones, despite having many new voters in the district, easily bested his opposition, taking 68% of the vote.
Jones was initially unopposed for his re-election this year, but is now making the play for Congress. With his Senate seat open, Democratic House member Ashley Gantt is the clear frontrunner for the nomination Gantt was initially elected to the State House when she knocked off the conservative James Bush III in the Democratic Primary, as I previously mentioned. Jones is hence very likely to be replaced with a fellow progressive in the Senate.
Jones’ Biggest Challengers
After Jones, there are several other serious candidates making bids for the office. Two Miami-Dade County commissioners are running. Oliver Gilbert, who currently represents District 1, has has the backing of Congresswoman Wilson. Jean Monestime, who was on the commission from 2010 until he hit term limits in 2022, was the county’s first Haitian commissioner and served as chair of the county commission.
Oliver Gilbert is likely to have easy access to cash thanks to his close ties with the county establishment. He has been endorsed by Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava. However, Gilbert’s close ties with Dade politics could also play against him, as the pay-to-play nature of the county is often a major subject of controversy. Gilbert has, rightfully, been attacked for endorsing Republican Vicki Lopez for her state House re-election in 2024 despite the district being seen as a good Democratic pickup opportunity. Lopez has since been elevated to the county commission via appointment, replacing Democrat Eileen Higgins when she was elected mayor of the City of Miami. This all reflects the complicated and fuzzy party dynamics in Dade, but won’t play as well in a partisan primary.
Monestime, meanwhile, will have issues with consolidating the Haitian vote, though he is likely poised to be the strongest candidate in that community. Physician Rudolph Moise, who is also of Haitian decent, has entered the contest. Moise ran for Congress back in 2010, the year Wilson ran. In 2012, he challenged Wilson one-on-one, taking 34% of the vote; with much of that clustered in the Haitian community.
Additional candidates are Marshall Davis Sr, a longtime civic activists and arts director; Roderick Vereen, an attorney and former candidate for Judge, and Kendrick Meek Jr, the son of former Congressman Kendrick Meek (who left Congress in 2010).
Jones in my view is the clear frontrunner because of his fundraising abilities and high profile. Gilbert is likely his biggest threat and had earned a good deal of local backing. However, in a crowded primary there is always the chance for upsets as the path to victory requires far less than 50%.
Lets now go look at the 20th.
Congressional District 20
The race for Congressional district is 20 is easily the most chaotic primary in all of Florida. Known to most as the plurality-Black seat that Debbie Wasserman Schultz has decided to carpetbag into, this race has a litany of serious candidates and drama. However, before we get into candidates, let's take a quick look at the seat’s geography and demographics.
The 20th district is located in central Broward County, including a racial mixture of voters. While the district is only 37% Black in registration, a Democratic primary is likely to be just over 50% Black.
The district includes heavily Black communities like Lauderhill and Lauderdale Lakes, while also including heavily Black portions of Deerfield Beach, Ft Lauderdale, and Pompano Beach. On top of this are many whiter Democrat-heavy suburbs like Coral Springs, Plantation, and Oakland Park. The seat is home to several Jewish retirees condo communities; namely Wynmoor, Kings Point, and Palm Aire. Finally, the district has a sizeable LGBT community; including the city of Wilton Manors, a longtime gay mecca in South Florida.
The district is also home to a large Caribbean population; estimated around 23%.
Unlike the Haitian-heavy 24th, this district is more of a mixture of Haitian and Jamaican voters. Thee voters are heavily concentrated in the North Lauderdale, Lauderhill, and Lauderdale Lakes towns.
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s Win and Resignation
This district is the successor the old 20th district, which once stretched from Broward and up to Palm Beach. The district in question was initially held by Alcee Hastings from 1993 until his death in 2021. When Hastings passed away, a crowded race emerged for the special election to fill his seat. I covered that primary in extensive detail here.
The primary included included batch of county commissioners and state lawmakers. However, coming out of know where to win a very divided primary with just 24% of the vote; and winning by just 5 RAW VOTES, was businesswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.
McCormick’s win came thanks to a stronger showing in Palm Beach, allowing her to narrowly edge out County Commissioner Dale Holness. She secured her election with several million dollars in self-funding. The win was followed by an easy general election. She easily prevailed in 2022 in a rematch with Holness and was unopposed in 2024.
However, questions about McCormick’s finances quickly began to emerge, namely where the money had come for her to self-finance. It turned out that McCormick’s healthcare company, Trinity Health Care, had been accidently overpaid $5,000,000 by the State of Florida for COVID related work that was never actually performed; leading to the state to sue to get the money back. This was the funds alleged to have been used to self-fund the Congressional bid.
In November of 2025, McCormick was indicted by the federal government for misuse of funds. Meanwhile, the House Ethics committee began an investigation related to this and rumors of a possible expulsion by the US House emerged after the committee found her guilty on multiple charges. To head this off, McCormick RESIGNED from the House, claiming it was to avoid a “witch hunt.” Many thought this was the end for McCormick. However, she quickly made it clear that she intended to run again this year. The resignation clearly was designed to avoid possible expulsion from the House; a cynical move.
While McCormick is the most recent incumbent, her drama and resignation have made her far from a frontrunner. As a result, many candidates are running for this seat. However, for a year now there has already been a major challenger to McCormick, the openly gay progressive activist - Elijah Manley.
Elijah Manley’s Progressive Challenge
Well before McCormick was indicted, she already had a challenger in the Democratic Primary. In February of 2025, longtime youth Democratic activist Elijah Manley announced he would run for the seat
Manley, just 27 and born in Ft Lauderdale, has made several runs for office in Broward County, starting with a bid for School Board and then the state house. Manley is a progressive firebrand that has often clashes with a more reserved Democratic establishment in the region. He has made his struggles in youth, being raised by a single-mother and suffering from homeless and food insecurity, as a major reason for his left-wing views and unwillingness to bow to other leaders. He is running as a firm left-wing Democrat. Manley is openly gay and been a longtime fighter against the right-wing shift on Florida’s government on LGBT issues.
Manley’s closest bid to win office was seen in a special election in 2021, where he got 25% of the vote in a four-way primary for an open state house seat. There Manley was strongest in the portions of Ft Lauderdale and Wilton Manors where there is large LGBT populations.
In 2020, Manley converted to Judaism, explaining how he found so much more acceptance and comfort in the faith. This actually matches with the district history, as the liberal Jewish retirees in the district were the some of the strongest groups against the 2008 same-sex marriage ban. Manley has maintained a clear criticism of Israel’s horrid war in GAZA and denounced AIPAC. He has also made it clear however that criticizing Israel is not anti-Semitic, but also that equating the actions of the Israeli Government with all of Judaism is anti-Semitic. More on his Israeli and Jewish views can be seen here.
Manley’s run against McCormick in 2025/2026 saw him raise several hundred thousand dollars for the bid. It also led to McCormick filing a defamation lawsuit against Manley for him bringing up the money scandal. The suit was eventually dismissed after McCormick failed to serve Manley. By this point, she had been formally indicted. The whole drama only aided Manley as it made McCormick look defensive and vindictive. A poll in February of 2026 showed Manley with a 3% lead over McCormick in the Democratic Primary.
A one on one match between McCormick and Manley would very likely produce a Manley win. However, many more candidates are in the race.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz Carpetbags
Of course nationally this district is best known as the seat that Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the current Congresswoman for the 25th district in South Broward County, has decided to run for. After redistricting left her with nothing but Trump seats to run in, DWS opted to run in this district. This is despite the fact she has little overlap with the seat during any of her time in Congress. I dedicated an entire article pleading with her to NOT make this move back in May. Shortly after this article, she indeed made the announced run. Check this out for FAR FAR FAR more detail on her move and why its terrible. I don’t want to repeat myself too much here.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz has been rightfully criticized for trying to jump into this seat at a time when Black representation is under attack. Indeed she had taken a great deal of critique from Black leaders in and out of the district, with allies of hers unwilling to actually endorse her for the bid. She has insisted that her presence in Congress is good for “Broward County” - but has no good answer for why Black voters should back her. Indeed the wide consensus is that DWS is counting on a split Black field and winning just with the white portion of the primary. It is been especially notably that Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries did NOT endorse her for re-election, a move called stunning because the leader has always backed incumbents. Schultz also saw one of her colleagues, Congressman Ro Khanna endorse Manley.
Schultz’s best path to winning the primary is likely through the white suburbs. She is no doubt banking on strong Jewish support. However, she and Manley offer competing visions on Israel. DWS has taken AIPAC money and is much more defensive of Israeli, while Manley has been much more critical. DWS would still be favored in these communities, but its a question of if she can pull of landslides or if Manley can eat into her likely totals in the condos.
Dale Holness and Luke Campbell
Rounding out the candidates is former County Commissioner Dale Holness and businessman Luke Campbell. Known best as “Uncle Luke” - Campbell is the former lead singer of 2 Live Crew, going on to be a music executive. Campbell almost ran in 2024, but opted against a bid. Financial reports that only go till the end of March show less than $40,000 raised and its not clear how serious of a candidate Campbell will be.
Dale Holness is a slightly more serious candidate than Campbell, namely because he has a clear base of support in the divided primary. A former county commissioner originally born in Jamaica, Campbell has long been strong with Caribbean voters in the district. In 2016, he narrowly bested incumbent State Senator Chris Smith to hold on to his seat. The race saw a strong dividing line on Caribbean vs non-Caribbean lines.
That strong base almost secured his primary win in the 2021 special, but it was not enough for him to take out McCormick in the 2022 rematch with just 28%; showing he has a ceiling of support.
Overall, the primary for the 20th is far more chaotic and harder to pin down than the 24th. There is a pathway for multiple candidates and part of what determines a winner could come down to how much the Black community consolidates and if Debbie Wasserman Schultz can bring Black voters to her side. Conversely, its easy to see someone like Manley take away white lefty votes from Schultz. Broadly I do think the primary will come down Manley or Schultz. I believe McCormick is fatally damaged and Holness has a ceiling.
We shall see how this plays out. Depending on the next month or so, I may be writing about this again before the primary.
Final Thoughts
We will have to see how both races shake out to see if Florida finally gets its first, and maybe two, openly gay members of Congress. What is especially notably, and heartening, is that their is a viable path for both Jones and Manley. Two decades ago, perhaps even a decade ago, being openly gay would have been a bigger hurdle and created a lower possible ceiling of support. Today, if Manley or Jones don’t win, it won’t come down to homophobia, but rather the litany of serious candidates also in the running. This itself is an extremely positive development.