Issue #264: Miami Mayor Runoff Preview
A local race quickly becomes national
On December 9th, just a few days from now, the city of Miami will hold its Mayoral runoff. This is the first runoff for Mayor that the city of Miami has held since 2001 and it will cap off the most crowded contest the city has experienced in decades.
Today I will talk about the dynamics heading into the runoff, and how a local race has quickly become another national focal point. While the contest is officially non-partisan, Democrat Eileen Higgins and Republican Emilio Gonzales both have strong backing from their respective parties. Both candidates offer competing visions for the city but both are also seen as avatars for pro or anti Trump forces.
Lets get into the details.
Pre-Runoff Developments
I have written about the Miami Mayoral contest in great detail over several articles. This background section will highlight some key points, but I recommend those past readings for more history, data, and maps.
The Politics of Miami
Heading into the first round of voting, held November 4th, I did a deep dive into the candidates for Mayor and the partisan and racial dynamics within the city. Until this year, the city of Miami had not held a really contested Mayoral race in some time. Outgoing Mayor Francis Suarez, a moderate Republican, faced token opposition in 2017 and 2021. This time, a large number of credible candidates ran for the office.
The city has long been Democratic but down-ballot much more Republican-leaning. This is thanks to the strong Cuban Republican bench in the city. The city of over 480,000 people is around 70% Hispanic and 30% Cuban. Turnout for local races is low and one group with much stronger turnout is older Cuban voters; many of them part of the “exile” community - those that fled the Island under Castro rule.
Federally the city has been much more Democratic, however, like many Hispanic areas, it swung to the right in recent years. After giving Clinton 68% of the vote, Biden got just 59%. Then last year, Harris won the city by just 1%.
First Round Candidates
With Mayor Suarez termed out, a large field of candidates filed for the post. While the total candidate list was 12, there were 6 very strong contenders, all with electoral backgrounds or large money raised.
Eileen Higgins (D) - Miami-Dade County Commissioner for District 5. Consolidated a great deal of Democratic Party and activist support.
Joe Carollo (R) - Current City Commissioner and former Mayor. Longtime antagonist of Mayor Suarez.
Emilio T. Gonzalez (R) - Cuban-American former city manager and former Bush Administration official. Has the endorsement of Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott.
Ken Russell (D) - Former city commissioner until 2022. Ran for Congress that year but lost Democratic Primary.
Xavier Suarez (NPA) - Former Mayor of Miami and former Miami-Dade county commissioner. Father of Incumbent Mayor Suarez.
Alex Díaz de la Portilla (R) - Former State Senator and City Commissioner. Part of once-powerful Cuban political dynasty.
In the first round of voting, these candidates could broadly be categorized into two blocks.
Higgins, Gonzalez, and Russell all represented a newer generation of politicians.
Carollo, Suarez, and Portilla represented the dynasty class.
While party alliances mattered in the first round, this dynamic of new vs old was a key issue. In a city with a longtime corruption problem, the newer generation candidates campaigned much more on anti-corruption platforms.
On the Democratic side, Eileen Higgins had a great deal of Democratic official backing and was considered the frontrunner Democrat. Ken Russell, who raised the least amount of money of the six major candidates, aggressively ran on a quasi-outsider, anti-corruption platform.
In the Republican side, Emilio Gonzalez raised the most money and used it to ingratiate himself with Cuban Republican voters, campaigning as a pro-Trump candidate. His biggest contender was Joe Carollo, a fellow pro-Trump individual but someone who despised Gonzalez, and the feeling was mutual. Few expected Portilla or Suarez to have a shot at the runoff.
First Round Results
The first round of voting saw Democratic-aligned candidates do very well. Eileen Higgins easily topped the field, winning 36% of the vote. Emilio Gonzalez edged into 2nd place. However, right on is heels was Ken Russell, who almost made the runoff.
How candidates did by assorted demographics can be seen below. Higgins was easily the strongest choice among Black voters, while doing about even with whites. Hispanic voters were much more divided, with Gonzalez, Carollo and Higgins earning between 20 and 30% in those precincts.
I dived much more into individual candidate support in my post-election article. That can be access below.
Democratic-aligned candidates hit around 55% of the vote cast. A major driver of that, and the biggest story out of the first round, was turnout. Historically, Republicans have held much stronger turnout in the city. This time, however, Democratic turnout was 5.5% higher.
The total vote cast was DEM +14; far higher than the DEM +6 it was in the Presidential contest. Democratic turnout beat out the GOP across all ethnic groups as well; along with age groupings.
I dived into the first round turnout in great detail in this below issue.
I said this immediately after the first round of voting - turnout for the runoff would be a major decider of who wins. Democrats are clearly hoping to replicate the electorate that came out in November.
Give those above articles a read if you want far more details on how we got to this runoff. Now I’m going to get into the last month of campaigning and where things stand heading to election day.
The Runoff Candidates
The results of the first round of voting set up a major clash between two candidates that offered different visions for the city, but also were the clear choices of their respective parties. Both had just a month to rally their side to turn out while also work to persuade over supporters of the vanquished candidates.
Before diving into campaign developments, lets look at both candidates in a bit more detail. You can see more details here.
Eileen Higgins - “La Gringa”
Commissioner Higgins is seeking to make history in her bid. If she is elected, she will be the first female mayor in the city’s history. Also, if she wins, she will be the first non-Hispanic mayor in several decades. This would not be the first time Higgins won a heavily Hispanic district. Higgins originally won a special election for Miami-Dade County Commission District 5 in 2018. The district then was over 70% Hispanic and over 35% Cuban. Her victory over Zoraida Barreiro, a Cuban Republican, was a major shock-wave in county politics. During he campaign, she went by the moniker of “La Gringa.” I wrote about his initial victory way back in 2018. My preview article also has more maps of her victories.
Higgins won re-election in 2020 and was unopposed in 2024. When she announced her run for Miami Mayor, she quickly built up a large amount of Democratic Party support. Progressive organizations backed her, as did several local Democratic politicians. With the runoff underway, Democratic officials have flocked to her side, as have left-leaning organizations. You can see more endorsements here.
Higgins has also received the endorsement of the Miami Herald.
Emilio Gonzalez - “MAGA Miami”
This is the first time that Emilio Gonzalez has made a run for office. However, he is a well connected figure in Florida politics. A former army officer, Gonzalez served in the George W Bush administration and was the CEO of Miami Airport for several years. In 2017, newly-elected Mayor Francis Suarez tapped Gonzalez to be city manager. Gonzalez served until 2020, when he left the commission amid a sick wife and a major ongoing feud with Joe Carollo. Go back to my preview for more on that drama.
Gonzalez has run on an anti-corruption platform. He has cited his feud with Carollo, a commissioner known for unethical tactics. However, Gonzalez has also welcomed and celebrated the endorsement of Donald Trump, the most corrupt President in history. Much has also been said of his own questionable actions as city manager.
Gonzalez, working to consolidate Republican support, has run on his backing from both Trump and Ron DeSantis, and has insisted MAGA is popular in Miami. Gonzalez has not shied away from attacking Higgins as a “soft socialist.” The approach Gonzalez has taken is that he is a true Republican, subtly implying some of the commissioners have not been. Florida Republican officials have further lined up behind him once the runoff was set.
Consolidating Support
Heading into the runoff there is a great deal of voter support to consolidate. Over 40% of the November ballots went to candidates that did not advance to the runoff.
For Higgins, if she can just consolidate the votes that went to Democratic candidates, she would be a lock to take the general. The top DEM-aligned candidates made up 55% of the vote in the first round.
While there is always the potential for voters to “sit out” the runoff due to their candidate not advancing, the high interest in this runoff means we are likely to see a sizable chunk of this 40% make their voice heard. Easily the biggest chunk of voters to win over have been those that backed Ken Russell and Joe Carollo. Both have strong followings and could likely have directed many of their backers to either candidate.
The Revenge of Joe Carollo
Those who have followed Miami politics for some time are very familiar with Joe Carollo. The brash Cuban Republican is a former Mayor, former City Commissioner, and is currently termed out of his latest stint on the city council. He is incredibly vindictive and is widely seen as a symbol of corruption. Honestly go back to my preview article for far more details.
A key point here is he hates Gonzalez, with the two attacking each-other constantly in the first round of voting. Thanks to this, he has not endorsed Gonzalez and by all accounts is working against his fellow Republican. Word on the city streets is Carollo has been steering his powerful donor network to Higgins, something that has left Republicans fuming that Carollo is a “RINO.” Carollo has said this Mayoral bid was his last run, so he clearly does not care anymore.
Where Will Ken Russell Voters Go?
While Higgins is no doubt happy to take in Carollo’s money, she also needs to win over as many of Ken Russell’s voters as possible. Russell’s backers were heavily Democratic and Independent. He was strongest with white voters, the second largest voting block in the city. These voters, many of them upscale suburbanites and young progressive activists, were galvanized by his anti-developer and anti-corruption message. More than anyone, Russell ran against the money-driven nature of Miami politics (see my preview for more on that). This has led to tensions with the Higgins camp, as her campaign is much more friendly with developer funds.
Russell has not endorsed either candidate, with speculation existing that he could endorse either. Gonzalez is seen by many as less tied in with the long-standing developer money network of the city. However, Gonzalez is not squeaky clean, and his strong embrace of Trump and Republicans has likely harmed his efforts to get Russel to endorse. A good breakdown of this dynamic can be read here: “Developers Darling vs GOP Hugger. Russell, for his part, as said his voters are up for grabs and encouraged both candidates to not make the runoff a partisan affair.
There is no doubt some bad blood that Higgins was so effective at consolidating Democratic support, giving Russell less room to make the runoff. At this point its very unlikely he makes any last minute endorsement.
Additional Consolidation Efforts
Carollo and Russell have the largest voting blocks to be swayed. However, the votes that went to lower-placed candidates can not be ignored either. Its more likely than not that most of the Alex Diaz de la Portilla voters will go to Gonzalez. Higgins, meanwhile, will want to get as many of the Xavier Suarez voters. Suarez, a former Democrat and former Republican that is now an independent, did better with Dem-aligned than GOP-aligned voters. His 8% with Black voters was far higher than his fellow Hispanic candidates.
On the topic of Black voters, one other candidates supports that Higgins will want to get is those for Michael Hepburn. I talked about this more in the post-primary article, but Hepburn was a lower-tier candidate that got just 2% of the vote. However, Hepburn was the only Black candidate in the race, and is estimated to have gotten 10% of the Black vote. Higgins needs as many of his voters to turn out.
Local vs National Concerns
The runoff has quickly taken on a national profile, much to the consternation of many locals and pundits. There are many local issues being debated between Higgins and Gonzalez, from investments to crime to affordability. The two have debated and gone back and forth on several local concerns, which you can read about here.
Miami Today made a valid argument about the issue with national forces getting so heavily involved in a local race. The editorial can be read here. A key quote that stands out to me is below.
In a nonpartisan election based on local issues, our nation’s two major parties have coopted the voting by deciding that one candidate is a surrogate for President Trump and the other is a surrogate for anti-Trump forces. That shoves the needs of Miami into the shadows.
There is valid issues being cited here. Miami has many issues and it is not just a data point for the national parties. I agree with the sentiment. However, despite the wishing of many, national political dynamics were destined to be a core part of the runoff.
Parties Invest in the Runoff
Even in the first round of voting, partisan politics was swirling around the race. This is a major city with candidates aligned with the major parties. Even while being officially non-partisan, there was always going to be a heavy injection of partisanship.
Once the runoff was set, Gonzalez saw Trump gives his formal endorsement. This was followed shortly after by the Democratic National Committee confirming it was “all in” on aiding Higgins winning the mayoral runoff. Meanwhile, with Democrats outperforming in the recent Tennessee special election, Republicans have become more vocally worried about the Miami race.
While the GOP remains committed to the contest, with the RNC putting in over $100,000 on television ads for Gonzalez, there is already efforts going on to “damage control” if the race is lost. In the above-cited article, Florida Republican Party Chair Evan Power said the city was a “Harris district” and that…
“It’s a tough district. My expectation is, it probably doesn’t perform for Republicans, but we have to do what we have to do, fight in every place.”
Harris did win the city, but it was a 1% race then. Both parties are spending on the race, showing both think its in play to won.
Note on Fundraising
Thanks to outside money, this is a very expensive runoff. We don’t even have a final idea of the total being spent, and likely won’t until well after the election has been decided. Hundreds of thousands have been spent in just the last few weeks. We won’t even get reports from some political committees until well after the vote occurs.
Yes there are estimates that Higgins has heavily outspent Gonzalez on TV. However, in a low turnout race, TV only has so much impact, hitting many voters that won’t be casting ballots. Untold money is going into mail, texting, calls, and digital advertising as well. On top of this, major “get out the vote” programs are underway, all mixing combinations of paid work and volunteers.
With that in mind, lets last touch on turnout.
The Turnout Game
I laid it out after the November voting. The winner of the runoff would depend on how turnout went in December. The strong Democratic performance in November was heavily thanks to a strong turnout game. While Democrats do not need to replicate the electorate exactly, they want to retain a strong lead in votes cast. I dive into this more in my post-election turnout article.
So where are we as of now? Well as of Friday night, we have a large batch of mail ballots in and one day of in-person early voting done. Early voting will continue Saturday and Sunday. The total turnout is seen below. On the right side of the table is the November (first round) vote totals.
So far, Democrats have held a strong lead in votes cast. The electorate is DEM +10; a bit under the DEM +14 from the first round, but still well ahead of where things were in the 2024 Presidential election.
Democrats have retained the strong vote-by-mail lead, and mail ballots are right on track with the first round of voting. Republicans, however, had a good first day of early voting. The total is still only a quarter of who voted early in November, but the solid GOP lead there is still much better than in the first round. Here we just cannot be sure yet if this will foretell a GOP surge, or it is simply their best day and the weekend will see Democrats flock to the polls. I can say that early voting got less Republican as the day went on. The vote before 2pm was GOP +16% while after that it was down to GOP +8%.
Democrats are no doubt hoping that most of their voters were looking to the weekend to cast ballots. Historically Sunday is also a common early voting say for Black voters; namely voting after church. “Souls to the polls” events are often scheduled, though if anything formal is being organized in Miami this round, I cannot say. However, that tradition, despite any formal events, does still ripple and Sunday is often a stronger Black turnout day.
There is also, of course, election day. In the first round, we saw election day was actually the most Democratic-heavy day. Will that continue this time? Both parties have no shortage of voters to turn out, especially if they are looking for folks who did not cast ballots in November, or if they simply are working to re-turn-out those who cast ballots four weeks ago.
I’ll be tracking early voting through the weekend and have an update article Monday looking at final notes for election day itself!
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