Issue #263: A More Detailed Look at Miami Mayor Turnout
Demographic breakdowns as we look to December
Just over two weeks ago, the city of Miami went to the polls for its star-studded Mayoral Election. The first round of voting saw Democrat Eileen Higgins and Republican Emilio Gonzalez advance to the December 9th runoff.
I discussed this election in great detail in two previous articles. I recommend going to these for more details on candidates, issues, and money. A quick reminder on the candidates, however. Note, the election is officially non-partisan.
Eileen Higgins (D) - Miami-Dade County Commissioner for District 5, which covers much of the city’s south and east. A left-of-center Democrat, Higgins has consolidated a great deal of Democratic Party and activist support.
Joe Carollo (R) - Current City Commissioner and former Mayor. A powerful figure in the Cuban community and notoriously bombastic and corrupt. Longtime antagonist of Mayor Suarez.
Emilio T. Gonzalez (R) - Cuban-American former city manager and former Bush Administration official. Has the endorsement of Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott.
Ken Russell (D) - Former city commissioner until 2022. Ran for Congress that year but lost Democratic Primary.
Xavier Suarez (NPA) - Former Mayor of Miami and former Miami-Dade county commissioner. Father of Incumbent Mayor Suarez. Elected city’s first Cuban mayor back in 1985.
Alex Díaz de la Portilla (R) - Former State Senator and City Commissioner. Part of once-powerful Cuban political dynasty. Lost city council re-election in 2023 amid corruption investigations.
My preview of the candidates and dynamics can be seen here. I delve into key candidate dynamics and the political trends within the city.
You can then see my first post-election review of the candidates support bases here. This article includes maps of individual candidate support estimates of support by racial group.
This Mayoral Election, the most crowded in over two decades, has been a major clash of personalities and coalitions. While the race is officially non-partisan, it is rapidly turning into a partisan affair. Both parties are quickly getting involved for the runoff.
I plan a more detailed breakdown of runoff dynamics in a future piece, likely after Thanksgiving. This article is going to look at the final turnout report for the November election. Democrats far outpaced the GOP in voting, a major sign of growing Democratic enthusiasm. They will need to repeat this in December.
As I’ve told everyone since the day of the first round, the runoff winner will be decided by turnout.
Final Turnout Report
One of the biggest stories out of Miami on election night was the stellar Democratic turnout. Democrats far outperformed Republicans in getting their voters to the polls. This was especially aided by a strong showing on election day.
The final electorate for Miami was nearly DEM +14, a much stronger showing than the DEM +6 electorate the city saw in the 2024 election. Thanks to this improved turnout, the total vote cast for Dem-aligned candidates was over 55%; far better than the 49% Harris got in the city just a year earlier.
The full turnout report with demographic data is finally available. The racial and party breakdown can be seen below.
The final turnout report largely matches with the unofficial totals we had on election day. Democratic turnout was 5.5% higher than the GOP, with NPA voters lagging much further behind. For reference, in 2024, Republican turnout in Miami was 8% higher than Democrats!
On the race-dynamic, White turnout was strongest, but the city voted was still heavily Hispanic. The vote cast by race can be seen below.
If you have never seen a demographic map of Miami before, you can see that much of the city is heavily racially segregated except on the coast. Inland communities are heavily Hispanic and also heavily Cuban (the city is about 30% Cuban in total). If you are also less familiar with Miami partisan politics, this is a city where the white vote leans Democratic. Hispanics, meanwhile, which are over 50% Cuban, lean much more Republican. I’ll get to party/race breakdowns more in a moment.
While party registration in the city is a near tie between Democrats and no-Party voters, thanks to turnout dynamics, the vote cast was far bluer than the registration indicates. The electorate, as previously stated, was just under DEM +14.
Miami turnout, which was just 22%, means that races are often decided on who shows up. The runoff campaign is seeing both candidates appeal to the voters of those not advancing, but a large chunk of resources if focused on getting voters out who will back the respective candidate.
It’s very simple, if this Democratic turnout dynamic continues in a runoff, Higgins is very likely to win. The Gonzalez campaign is working hard to churn out Cuban Hispanic voters, who are heavily Republican.
Turnout by Race and Party
Democratic turnout advantages in the first round were very impressive. Among all the major racial groups of Miami, Democrats outpaced Republicans. Below you can also see how Democrats maintain a registration lead with white voters but Republicans lead with Hispanics.
Only among Hispanic voters was the turnout gap close. As I discussed in my preview articles, a core component of the Hispanic community in Miami is an older Cuban community that is full of reliable voters. The fact Democrats actually led in turnout among Hispanics is a big deal. In the 2024 election, Republican turnout was 11% higher than Democrats with Hispanic voters.
Meanwhile, the party gap among white voters is staggering. White Democrats had turnout 18 points higher than white Republicans. The 39% turnout among white Democrats is the highest of any race/party grouping.
I looked at the party turnout dynamics by precinct as well. Below is a map showing where Democratic or Republican turnout was highest. Note this is not party share of the vote. Blue = Democrats got a higher % of their voters to show up, Red = Republican turnout was stronger.
A vast majority of precincts saw higher Democratic turnout. The differences in party gap between Hispanic and White voters is seen clearest in this map, with the red precincts being those heavily Hispanic.
A core block of higher Republican turnout comes from the area that Commissioner Joe Carollo did best in his mayoral bid. This area, known as Little Havana, was also where Joe’s brother, Frank Carollo, did best as he ran for the City Commission seat Joe was giving up.
Frank Carollo also held the city district from 2009 to 2017, when his brother Joe then was elected to it. The brothers have worked in tandem in the area and are very controversial; with strong loyalists and bitter enemies. Go read my pre-election preview for more. The dynamic of having two Carollo’s on the ballot, however, allowed Commission District 3 to have the highest turnout. It was the only district where Hispanic turnout topped white turnout.
While Joe Carollo has not advanced to the runoff, his brother Frank is in a runoff for the city district. The impact of that race could see a boost in Hispanic Republican turnout. However, whether all those voters back Gonzelez is a different issues, as Joe Carollo and Emilio Gonzelez despise each-other. Issues like this will be covered in an upcoming article.
Turnout by Age
One of the other key turnout dynamics I wanted to look at was age. As is typical for off-cycle local races, this was a race dominated by older voters. While those over 65 had a turnout of 35%, it was just 7% turnout for those 18 to 24. Thanks to this dynamic, the retiree population made up over 40% of the votes cast.
Breaking the age group further down by race shows a turnout dynamic similar to 2024 President. The group with the lowest turnout was young Black voters, just 6.4%. The highest grouping was white voters over 65, with a turnout of 47%.
That turnout dynamic was very bad for Democrats statewide in Florida. Its not as bad in Miami thanks to how those white voters cast ballots. However, Black turnout is going to be a major issue in the runoff for Higgins. She needs to bring as many Democrats out as possible: white, Hispanic, and Black.
Age and Party
I also wanted to dig further into the party turnout dynamic by age, to see if any area saw stronger Republican turnout than Democrats. However, the data shows Democratic turnout topped Republicans across all age groups.
It was closest with those 65 and over, bit still saw stronger Democratic turnout. While turnout among the youth was bad across the board, it was actually worst with Republicans. Among those under 50, NPA voters had stronger turnout than Republicans. Considering how many Republicans were running, that really speaks to low interest and enthusiasm in the race.
I did the same party/age breakdown for just Hispanic voters. Here is where I expected to finally see the GOP outpace Democrats. Indeed, Republican turnout was higher than Democrats with Hispanics 65 and up. This definitely highlights the influence of reliable Cuban exile voters as well as the Carollo machine efforts.
Even with the GOP holding a modest lead with older Hispanics, the story for younger voters still screams a lack of youth conservative enthusiasm. Against GOP turnout was below NPA turnout across age groups under 50. That modest 3% GOP lead with Hispanic retirees is a fraction of what the gap normally is.
Final Notes
As I stated, I am working on an a future article delving into the emerging runoff dynamics. That should be out shortly after the long Thanksgiving weekend. I will also be tracking turnout. Right now we already have 1,200 absentee ballots returned. Live turnout tracking can be seen here.
December 9th is not far away