Issue #260: Democrats Surge in Miami - Looking Ahead to the December Runoff
One month sprint to the December vote
On Tuesday, voters in Miami went to the polls to elect a new Mayor to replace the termed-out Francis Suarez. While Miami has historically been solidly Democratic, the Miami Mayor’s office, while officially non-partisan, has long been won by Cuban Republicans. This year, however, several prominent candidates of both parties ran for the office. In an election night that saw a massive wave of Democratic Party victories across the country, the story in Miami was no different.
For those of you unfamiliar with the backstory of the Miami Mayor’s race, I recommend my Monday evening breakdown of the race. This article will be a post-script to that much more detailed breakdown of the candidates and party/race dynamics at play in the race.
Of the TWELVE candidates to file for the open Mayoral position, there were six serious contenders. This was by far the most star-studded Mayoral campaign in Miami since at least 2001. A short breakdown of each candidate can be seen below. Note that while party is listed, the race was officially non-partisan.
Eileen Higgins (D) - Miami-Dade County Commissioner for District 5, which covers much of the city’s south and east. A left-of-center Democrat, Higgins has consolidated a great deal of Democratic Party and activist support.
Joe Carollo (R) - Current City Commissioner and former Mayor. A powerful figure in the Cuban community and notoriously bombastic and corrupt. Longtime antagonist of Mayor Suarez.
Emilio T. Gonzalez (R) - Cuban-American former city manager and former Bush Administration official. Has the endorsement of Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott. Biggest fundraiser of the race.
Ken Russell (D) - Former city commissioner until 2022. Ran for Congress that year but lost Democratic Primary.
Xavier Suarez (NPA) - Former Mayor of Miami and former Miami-Dade county commissioner. Father of Incumbent Mayor Suarez. Elected city’s first Cuban mayor back in 1985.
Alex Díaz de la Portilla (R) - Former State Senator and City Commissioner. Part of once-powerful Cuban political dynasty. Lost city council re-election in 2023 amid corruption investigations.
As I discussed in my Monday article, I believed Eileen Higgins was poised to come in first and advance in the runoff. She was the best funded Democratic-aligned candidate in the race and generated a good deal of major party endorsements. The question was, who would advance with her to a December Runoff?
Would Emilio Gonzalez, the Republican Establishment figure, make it? He’s raised more money than anyone and had the backing of DeSantis.
Would Joe Carollo, despite countless scandals and controversies, galvanize is his loyal followers to advance? In a very split field, having a loyal following can be enough.
Could Ken Russell, who lagged fundraising the most, sneak past the other Republicans? Or would he suffer from Democratic consolidation toward Higgins?
Lets break down how it all played out.
The Turnout Game
Before getting into the results of the race, it is worth noting the electorate that showed up. Miami is historically known for low-turnout elections; something that has sparked a serious debate about moving the election dates to confirm with statewide races. In the 2021 Mayoral Election, turnout was just 14%, or 27,000 ballots. Reminder that this is a city of 450,000 people.
The 2021 Mayor’s race was, to be fair, a contest that saw Mayor Suarez face token opposition. Myself, and frankly anyone following this year’s race, expected turnout to be higher. The question was, would it hit the 30%+ range that contested races in the 1990s and early 2000s saw? The answer was no. Despite having a massive candidate field and millions spent on the race, just 22% of voters - 38,000 people - showed up to cast ballots.
While turnout was still low, the story among the two parties was very different. Democrats flocked to the polls far more than their Republican counterparts. While GOP turnout was 21.7%, Democrats hit 27.4%. This came thanks to a massive Democratic lead in election day ballots.
Thanks to Democratic turnout on election day, the total electorate for this race was DEM +14. For comparison, the electorate in Miami in the 2024 Presidential Election was just DEM +6. This was also one of the first times in many years (as best I can recall) where election day proved to be a Democratic-friendly baseline.
Pre-COVID, the norm was for mail to be pro-GOP in Miami, while election day was Democratic friendly. The polarization of COVID mitigation, and Trump’s attacks on mail-in voting, shifted how party loyalists cast ballots; leading to many years of Democrats dominating at mail and Republicans sweeping election day. However, in a post-COVID era, which has also seen limits on absentee voting in Florida, a new dynamic is emerging on when people cast ballots.
As the polls closed on election day, and I marveled at this Democratic surge, there was no doubt in my mind Higgins was destined for the runoff. The big question being asked in the final hours was if fellow Democrat Ken Russell could make it as well.
The Primary Results
When the results came in, Eileen Higgins was way out in front with a solid 36% of the vote. Emilio Gonzalez, trailing way back at 19%, managed to narrowly squeak into the runoff. Right on his heels was Democrat Ken Russell; who far outperformed considering his money disadvantage in the race. He nearly made the runoff as well.
The two major Democratic-aligned candidates combined to win 53% of the vote! Considering Miami had not elected a Democrat mayor in two decades, and that Harris got just 49% of the vote last year, this is moving this in a better direction. Democrats came very close to locking Republicans out of the runoff. Russell, who folks believe began to surge late in the race after strong debate performances, likely needed a bit more time/money to pass Gonzalez.
The results marked a major rejection of the “old guard” of Miami politics. Portilla, Carollo, and Suarez, once institutions in the city and county, were well behind the pack. In his concession speech, Russell, who’d run heavily on cleaning up corruption, gloated “and all three of the dynasty candidates ended up in the bottom.”
This now sets Miami up for a December runoff between two well-funded candidates, each with strong backing of their respective party. Before looking ahead to December, lets dig into the first round results some more.
Results Analysis
As the results map showed, most candidates had blocks of support, with Higgins easily having the broadest base of support. I wanted to look at how our main candidates did by different geographies and demographics.
First up, this shows the Mayor race by precincts categorized by their racial makeup. This uses registered voters, as we don’t have the final vote cast racial makeup yet. I narrowed the breakdown to precincts with a large concentration of each demographic group. (Btw go to my preview article for a map of racial makeup in the city).
Higgins’ first place comes with an absolutely dominate showing with the city’s Black community; taking almost 50%. Meanwhile she and Ken Russell were nearly even with white voters. The Hispanic community was divided between Higgins, Gonzalez, and Carollo. It was also the only group Portilla even managed to do hit double digits with. Suarez, meanwhile, the first Cuban mayor of Miami, trailed everyone in a distant 6th place.
Here we have the results broken down by City Commission District. Higgins won all five seats, though she was under 30% in the Hispanic/Cuban heavily 1st and 4th.
Here we see the effect of time on the city council impacting support bases. Carollo was strongest in his 3rd city district, though his inability to win the seat he currently occupies is a great embarrassment for him. Russell was strongest in his former district, which he has not held for 3+ years. Portilla, who lost his re-election in 2023, only topped 10% in his old seat; though he still came 4th there.
Additional Precinct Maps
I also wanted to offer up some precinct maps of the candidates not advancing to the runoff - looking at their strongest bases of support.
First up is Ken Russell’s support by precinct. Securing 18% of the vote, there are only a handful of precincts were Russell did not get at least 10%. Fitting with his time as a city commissioner for the coastal towns, the beach regions were his strongest block.
No area was stronger for him, however, than Coconut Grove - often called “The Grove” - which sits on the southern end of the city. There Russell racked up over 40% of the ballots.
Back in 4th place, Joe Carollo spent over $700,000 in his bid, but largely saw his support limited outside of his core geographic base around “Little Havana.” That community remains heavily Cuban but has also seen a sizeable growth of non-Cuban Hispanic voters.
Carollo proved to still have a core block of supporters within the north half of his city council seat. Little Havana gave him massive margins, but even as precincts went further west, he struggled to overtake Gonzalez in the Flagler communities that are even more Cuban. Carollo’s inability to best Gonzalez with the older Cuban exile vote guaranteed he would not make the runoff. Meanwhile, in area not heavily Hispanic, Carollo absolutely tanked.
For Alex Diaz de la Portilla, the results were bleak. Securing just 5% of the vote, Alex did not even pass 5% in a majority of precincts.
His best regions were almost entirely within his old city council district, so much so you can see the outline of his seat based on his increasing support. He was strongest in the Allapattah communities and had blocks of support within West Flagler.
One additional candidate map I wanted to highlight was that of Michael Hepburn, who came in 7th. In my preview article, I included him in my 2nd-tier candidate list, as he had little money or infrastructure. However, it was going to be notable to see how he did in the Black community, as he was the lone Black candidates in the race.
Hepburn managed to get up to 15% in the heavily Black community of Liberty City. His strongest precinct, located in downtown, was actually just a couple voters. My demographics analysis says he likely won around 10% of the Black vote.
For Higgins, getting good Black turnout in December will be critical to victory.
Looking Ahead to December
Higgins and Gonzalez have just one month to persuade voters to back them. The next vote is December 9th! I’m going to touch on some quick points here, but trust me more coverage for the runoff will be coming.
How will voters shift?
The first clear question is how the voters of the eliminated candidates will vote in December. Both campaigns will be fighting to win over as many of those voters as possible.
The barbs came out quick on the election night itself, which you can read more of here. Both candidates hit the other for being insiders. When asked why voters should back him over Higgins, Gonzalez stated….
“The fact that I’m not a career politician. That I’ve been in the city before, and I know what I’m doing and that I’m going to take the city further. She is easily a career politician.”
Higgins, who was only elected in 2018 so the idea she is career politician is silly, hit right back, pointing out the chaos from Gonzalez’s time as city manager (see my preview article for more on that).
“The era of chaos happened when he was city manager. We already know what Emilio would do as mayor. We know what he did as manager.”
Ken Russell, meanwhile, expressed his gratitude that the old class of politicians: Carollo, Portilla, and Suarez, were defeated. He did not endorse anyone for the runoff, noting he considered the top 3 candidates to all be more pro-reform.
“All three of the top candidates are here for reform in one way or another. Nobody here is trying to turn the clock backward, and that’s a good thing that Miami should be proud of.”
If Russell’s voters all go to Higgins, she easily wins the runoff. However, it is very much not clear if Russell will endorse. In a post-election interview, Russell hinted at frustration with how Higgins consolidated much of the Democratic vote at his expense. On the topic of how his voters would go in December, he stated…
“My voters could go either way. There’s a broad coalition there that has nothing to do with party.”
Granted much of Russell’s voters lean Democratic and independent, so there is a strong case many of them will gravitate toward Higgins. However, its clear there is some hurt feelings at the moment. Whether Russell endorses or not remains to be scene. Gonzalez has campaigned as a firm Republican, which will put more pressure on Russell to not sit the runoff out. I think its worth seeing how the next weeks/days progress there.
Meanwhile, Joe Carollo is very unlikely to endorse Gonzalez. While both men are Cuban Republicans, they despise each-other. Gonzalez attacked Carollo throughout the campaign and Carollo was a major driver in pushing Gonzalez out as city manager. One ex-factor here is Carollo’s brother is in a runoff for City District 3. However, will the voters for Carollo’s brother back Gonzalez? I’m not sure if they got to Higgins, but they may just leave the race blank.
Turnout for the Runoff
Persuasion of voters is one factor of this runoff. However, I argue the biggest issue is TURNOUT. As discussed early on, Democrats had fantastic turnout in this first round of voting, well outpacing Republicans in voting. This electorate, D +14, allowing Higgins to lead so widely and Russell to almost make the runoff. However, if Republicans close that gap or reverse it in December, then Higgins as no chance.
Turnout will be the big name of the game. The electorate that shows up is going to dictate this result more than any persuasion. Trust me, turnout is something I am going to be tracking very closely.
Higgins advantage on that front is that nationwide there is a clear Democratic enthusiasm lead. We saw higher turnout for Democrats in Florida’s Special Elections earlier this year, and we saw it on Tuesday across the nation. However, Gonzalez has more Republican-aligned older Cuban voters with long and reliable voter histories to call on. If turnout were to collapse for the runoff, that collapse would come from Democratic-aligned voters first: white, Black, and non-Cuban Hispanics.
Turnout is key to December’s winner - one way or the other.
I will be tracking this race for the next 4 and a half weeks!