Issue #259: Election Preview for Miami's Crowded and Colorful Mayoral Election
Six major candidates vie for the top prize
Tomorrow, voters in the city of Miami are going to the polls for their most dynamic Mayoral race in two decades. The city of 450,000 people is never short on political drama or scandals. However, it has been a long time since it had a truly contested Mayoral election. Outgoing Mayor Francis Suarez faced token opposition in his 2017 election and 2021 re-election bids. This time, up to six strong candidates are vying for the open position.
This article will aim to give you all a lay of the land in Miami as it goes to the polls. With many strong candidates running and a runoff needed if no one gets 50%, this is almost surely just the first step in selecting a new Mayor.
Before delving into the candidates, let me touch briefly on the lay of the land in Miami.
Miami’s Demographics and Politics
Miami has a long and rich history as a major hub for immigration; especially after the rise of Castro and the massive Cuban exodus from the island. I delved into Miami-Dade county’s history as a refugee destination in one of my earliest articles for this newsletter.
Today, the City of Miami around 70% Hispanic via the census. In terms of voter registration, the city is right around 58% Hispanic, 21% white, and 13% Black. As the racial breakdown map shows below, the inland is heavily Hispanic while the coastal neighborhoods are whiter. Black voters, a mix of Caribbean and non-Caribbean African-Americans, largely sit in the north of the city.
Among the city’s Hispanic community, around half are of Cuban nationality directly. The Census’ American Community Survey estimates that around 31% of the city is Cuban.
No other nationality comes close to Cuban voters. The second largest Hispanic group is Nicaraguan voters, who only make up an estimated 7%. Honduran residents are at 6%, and Venezuelan are only around 4%. Other parts of Miami-Dade county are well known for being major enclaves of Argentina, Venezuelan, or Columbian residents. However, in Miami, Cubans dominate Hispanic politics. Miami elected its first Cuban mayor in 1985 and has had a Cuban-American Mayor for the last 30 years.
Miami is currently divided into five city council districts. These seats are drawn to create an ethnic balance in the city, but are also heavily subjected to the machinations of political actors. These final maps came after an ACLU lawsuit saw an earlier plan struck down. As the data below shows, the 5th is designed to unite the Black community of the district, while the 2nd is drawn to cover the coastal towns that are more a mix of white and Hispanic residents. The three inland seats, meanwhile, are overwhelmingly Hispanic.
While Miami has been historically a Democratic city, the 3-2 GOP lead on the council has been a fairly common standard. Commissioners are elected on non-partisan ballots and to be clear, debates and issues often do not fall on any specific party lines. That said, the norm as been the three inland districts being heavily dominated by Hispanic/Cuban/Republican politicians.
Shifting Partisanship
I did mention that Miami was historically heavily Democratic. However, that is quickly becoming no longer the case. Thanks to Republicans making massive gains with Hispanic voters in the 2024 election and before, the city only narrowly backed Kamala Harris in in the Presidential election last year.
How Miami has voted in major Florida statewide races can be seen below. Back in 2016, the city voted for Hillary Clinton by 40%.
Several things have been going on in Miami to affect this partisan shift. Changing registration, changing demographics, weaker Democratic turnout. A much more detailed breakdowns of Miami is a subject for another time.
Turnout in Miami
As mentioned earlier, Miami has not had a seriously contested mayoral race in some time. Hence turnout is a big debate point. Many of you may of read about the scandal that emerged this summer when the city tried to move its election to November of next year, the same time as the Gubernatorial contest. The official reasoning for this was the low turnout these off-cycle races generation. Indeed in the 2021 mayoral race, turnout was just 15%.
Miami’s low turnout in 2021 is partly a reflection of it not being a real contested race. The last truly big contested race in Miami, all the way back in 2001, saw turnout of 35%. Of course this itself is still very low.
The city pushing to move the election date was attacked for being so late into the campaign season. The merits of changing the dates was not even the issue, rather the timing. There were also plenty of internal machinations going on, but I’ll leave that for another time. Long story short, the city was kicked in the courts and the November election date remained.
The elections being in odd-years does shape the electorate of the city. Namely, the group that really is able to flex its muscle in these low turnout races is older residents. In places like Boca Raton, this means Jewish retirees. In Miami, it means older Cuban exiles.
In Miami’s 2021 Mayoral election, while turnout was just 14% citywide, it was 26% among Hispanics 65+, many of whom are Cubans that arrived decades ago after fleeing the island. Among the Republicans specifically, the heart of the exile community, turnout was double the city.
So how is turnout looking this time, considering we have a really heavily contested race? Well, so far turnout, with all of early voting over and some mail ballots to come, sits at 11%. Compared to 2021, mail ballots are down but in-person early is up.
Right now turnout is on pare with pre-election day 2021 ballots. One would think that the heavily contested nature of the race means election day tomorrow will be much higher than it was in 2021. However, we won’t know for sure. I will say I could easily see a strong election day surge, especially as voters may have waited to be sure who to back. However, if turnout is not up much from 2021, it will fuel the date change argument even more.
With that, lets dive into the candidates running.
The Full Candidate List
Miami’s 2025 Mayoral Election is easily the most crowded and star-studded in the entire 21st century. It is not just that for the first time in a two decades we have a really serious contest for Mayor, its that among the candidates, we have SIX well known entities running; all with their bases of support and pathways to victory. Below is a full list of candidates, with the serious contenders at the top and weaker candidates further down.
I’ll be talking about several of these candidates after going over the main list. But here is a short breakdown of each candidates, as well as the party affiliations (though remember no party labels will be on the ballot).
Eileen Higgins (D) - Miami-Dade County Commissioner for District 5, which covers much of the city’s south and east. A left-of-center Democrat, Higgins has consolidated a great deal of Democratic Party and activist support.
Joe Carollo (R) - Current City Commissioner and former Mayor. A powerful figure in the Cuban community and notoriously bombastic and corrupt. Longtime antagonist of Mayor Suarez.
Emilio T. Gonzalez (R) - Cuban-American former city manager and former Bush Administration official. Has the endorsement of Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott.
Ken Russell (D) - Former city commissioner until 2022. Ran for Congress that year but lost Democratic Primary.
Xavier Suarez (NPA) - Former Mayor of Miami and former Miami-Dade county commissioner. Father of Incumbent Mayor Suarez. Elected city’s first Cuban mayor back in 1985.
Alex Díaz de la Portilla (R) - Former State Senator and City Commissioner. Part of once-powerful Cuban political dynasty. Lost city council re-election in 2023 amid corruption investigations.
These are your main candidates. Several of them are colorful characters. I’ll get into them more in a second.
There are a slew of other candidates running. However, none of these folks are expected to make a major plash in the race.
Michael Hepburn (D) - The strongest of this group. Hepburn, a community activist, is the lone Black candidate in the race. He’s self-funded his bid with tens of thousands of dollars, but has little outside support.
Christian Cevallos (R) - Former Miami-Dade Community Council member.
June Savage (R) - Real estate agent. Got 2% in a city council bid in 2023.
Alyssa Crocker (R) - Activist
Elijah John Bowdre (R) - Serves on county crypto currency board
Kenneth James DeSantis (NPA) - Attorney who is a distant cousin of the Governor. Despite the name he’s not a factor.
Laura Anderson (SWP) - Labor activist and member of Socialist Workers Party.
The race is really a battle for the top 6 names. If anyone else wins some precincts, it will be Hepburn in the North end of the city. That the “big six” angling for a runoff spot, and my oh my is the money flowing.
Money in the Race
It cannot be over-stressed how critical money and campaign infrastructure is in the city of Miami. The city being made up of just 5 commissioners, often elected in low-turnout races, has led to insane amounts of cash spent per voters that aims to shift narratives and fund major GOTV efforts. With every developer and business donating to get influence with the city, its a no wonder Miami has a bad reputation on issues around corruption.
This issue of money in politics is best seen in a special election that took place back in June. City District 4 had a special election due to the death of Commissioners Manolo Reyes. Two candidates ran for the post: urban planner Ralph Rosado and Jose Regalado, who worked with the city building department. Regalado was also the son of former Mayor, and current county property appraiser, Tomas Regalado. However, many in Miami circles did not want the Regalado family getting a new foothold in the city. This city thrives on family feuds.
What happened next was that Commissioner Carollo and current Mayor Suarez spent a combined $1.5 million to defeat Regalado! Carollo directed $500,000 from his political action committees while Suarez directed over $1,000,000. All of this is from committees awash in business donations. The deluge allowed Rosado to defeat Regalado. The race only saw 5,000 ballots cast!
While you may think that Carollo and Suarez teamed up to elect Rosado, the mayor and commissioner actually despise each other. In essence, they both aimed to get Rosado under their wing. Once he was seated, Rosado sided more with the mayor, which head led to Carollo openly stating that backing the now-commissioner was a major mistake.
THIS is the environment we go into with Miami elections. Candidates raise hundreds of thousands of dollars, mostly to their political committees. Donations of $10,000 or $25,000 or even $100,000 are not uncommon.
I’ve aimed to provide the best breakdown possible for the major commission candidates. For almost all of them, a majority of their support comes not from regular campaign accounts, but from these political committees. A breakdown of this and major donors can be seen here as well. It should be noted that the political committees don’t have a report deadline yet, so we don’t even have the full picture.
Eileen Higgins - Raised $190,000 per official account and raised $650,000 in a separate election committee
Joe Carollo - Raised $48,000 per official account and raised another $700,000 in a separate election committee
Emilio T. Gonzalez - Raised $210,000 per official account and raised another $900,000 in a separate election committee
Ken Russell (D) - Raised $140,000 per official account and raised $100,000 in a separate election committee
Xavier Suarez (NPA) - Raised $20,000 per official account and raised $260,000 in a separate election committee
Alex Díaz de la Portilla (R) - Raised $150,000 per official account and raised $280,000 in a separate election committee
The money being raised here is massive. I am also sure their are many third party groups spending to either elevate or harm candidates. The race is a wash in millions of dollars; all for an election likely to have low turnout. The money per dollar ratio is out of control in Miami.
Candidate Dynamics
With six major candidates in the race, there is no shortage of drama and history shaping the race. Miami has real issues to deal with; from affordability, to flooding, to infrastructure. Public corruption is also seen as a major problem. Issues around Mayor Suarez not being “hands on” with issues have also come up. You can see more about the different issues in Miami from the recent debate coverage.
Publications like politico have done write-ups on the race, as have the New York Times and Florida Politics. For myself, I want to focus more on the clash of personalities at play in this race. So many of these names are big figures in the region, and personal appeals are going to shape a good deal of the vote cast.
The Longtime Figures
To start with, this races features two candidates that have both served as Mayor before. Joe Carollo and Xavier Suarez have not only both been mayors, they fought against each-other for the position 30 years ago. Back in 1997, the two engaged in a race that was so mired in absentee ballot corruption that it led to the federal courts getting involved. Suarez initially won the election, but his victory was overturned by the courts due to ballot corruption on his campaign end, and made Carollo the winner. This crazy saga also had the effect of aiding the move to make “Miami-Dade” the new county name. Its true - and I delved into the entire crazy saga earlier this year.
Despite the scandal of the 1997 bid, Suarez, who was never directly implicated in any absentee ballot rigging, was able to eventually win election to the county commission. He ran for Miami-Dade County Mayor in 2020, but came in 4th. While Suarez is a former Republican, he has postured himself as independent in recent years. He is notably more pro-immigrant than the other Republicans running. All the Republicans espouse the immigrant nature of the city, but only Suarez has been willing to really critique the current state of things.
Carollo, meanwhile, served as Mayor till 2001. That year, amid a divorce and domestic violence accusations, he failed to secure a spot in the runoff, coming in third instead. Carollo has been a nonstop walking controversy since he emerged in city politics in the late 1970s. Bombastic and corrupt, he has countless enemies but also a very loyal following in some Cuban community circles. His Wikipedia page is longer than that of several US Senators, awash in controversies. Carollo managed to return to city politics back in 2017. That year he won a close contest for Commission District 3; winning thanks to strong turnout in the Cuban-heavy northern portions of the district.
Carollo’s win saw him replace his own brother, who was serving on the commission but was termed out. With Carollo now running for Mayor, his brother is again running for the city council seat! While the city has term limits, those reset after a break in service.
Carollo on the council has seen him clash with Mayor Suarez plenty. His time on the council has also seen him work to oust the Miami police chief after that Chief accused him of interfering in police affairs. Carollo also launched a war against the owners of the Ball & Chain club after they supported political opponents of his. Carollo used the zoning laws to try and get the club shuttered. A civil lawsuit filed by the club eventually found Carollo liable in a $60 million dollar judgement! This judgement as still not been paid, with Carollo saying he doesn’t have the money. This is ongoing as he runs for Mayor.
Despite all this, he still has a loyal base of voters who view him as a victim. Hmmm remind you of anyone?
The Democratic Hopefuls
Democrats have by far their strongest candidate for Mayor in many years. Eileen Higgins has served on the county commission since 2018. That year, she won a special election for this majority-Hispanic seat that covers part of Miami and Miami-Beach. While she does speak Spanish, Higgins is white, and her victory in Miami-Dade, over a Cuban opponent, was noted as a major upset. She was dubbed and embraced the mantra of being “La Gringa” - and I wrote all about the election here.
I have maps of Higgins’ runoff win in the above link. The map I want to show right now, however, is from the first round of voting. Like Miami itself, the county commission races are non-partisan and a runoff is only held if no one gets 50%. In that first round of voting, where Higgins came in 1st and advanced, Alex Diaz de la Portilla came in 3rd. He is another one of our candidates for Mayor.
Portilla’s loss in the county commission race, failing to advance in the runoff, did see him do well in the heavily Cuban western precincts. I’ll talk even more about Portilla in a moment.
As for Higgins, after he 2018 win, she had a go up for the voters again in 2020. That year, she faced off against Renier Diaz de la Portilla, the brother of Alex. Here Higgins fought off the Portilla brother and secured re-election.
Portilla was very strong, however, in the Hispanic community. Some of Higgins’ best showings were in Miami-Beach, outside of the city of Miami. Broadly this reflects the issue Higgins will have if she makes the runoff, consolidating some Cuban support. It should be noted that this district was around 35% Cuban, meaning its even more Cuban than the city of Miami itself. Higgins has shown she has the strength to win. As such she has secured most of the major Democratic endorsements in the race. She is the presumptive Democratic nominee for a hopeful runoff spot.
While Higgins has set herself up as the presumptive Democratic candidate, former Commissioner Ken Russell has been trying to secure a spot for himself in the runoff. Russell represented the White/Hispanic coastal seat from 2017 until 2022. He has ran on issues around corruption in the city and aimed to frame himself as someone who will, in his words, “break the wheel” of city corrupt politics. Russell, who has not raised nearly as much money, has run an aggressive social media campaign. However, Russell likely risks being left out of the runoff as Democrats are worried about a split vote meaning neither he nor Higgins advance.
The Saga of the Portilla Family
Lets circle back to Alex Diaz de la Portilla. Alex is part of an entire family of prominent Cuban politicians. Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, the Portilla’s were a monumental powerhouse in the county. Alex, Renier, and their brother Miguel, have all held offices off and on. However, their influence has greatly waned under scandals and the rise of other prominent Cuban politicians. Alex lost a bid for State House in 2012 and then when he ran for State Senate in a 2017 Special election, the GOP worked hard to defeat him in favor of their own candidate in the primary.
After his county commission failure, Alex was eventually elected to the city council in 2019. Here Alex was similar to Joe Carollo, winning despite scandal in a low turnout race where name-ID mattered a lot and where his family still had some sway. Outraising his opponents by a wide margin, Alex managed to return to elected office.
Alex’s time as a commissioner would come to an end in 2023, however. That fall, Alex was arrested and charged with money laundering. The case, however, would fall apart and never go to trial due to a number of issues. The stink, however, was all over Alex before this, with corruption being widely suspected. Alex subsequently lost his re-election to Miguel Gabela later that year.
Alex is likely to lag behind other names in the race, and I do not see him making the runoff. However, he still has a base of support and will pull some votes. How many remains to be seen. A detailed look at Alex and all his ups and downs can be view here.
The Republican Establishment Pick
Meanwhile, the last of the Republican-aligned Cuban candidates is first time office seeker Emilio T. Gonzalez. He is the clear pick of the broad Florida Republican establishment. Gonzalez has a long career in politics, but never as an elected official and often as a manger.
After serving in the army as an officer, he served in the George W Bush administration and as CEO of Miami airport. In 2017, Mayor Suarez tapped him to become City Manager. There he feuded with figures like Joe Carollo. Then in 2020, as Carollo launched an investigation into possible Gonzalez ethics lapses, Gonzalez opted to resign. At the time Gonzalez’ wife was also struggling with illness and he insisted this was his main reason for leaving. Most insiders consider it a bit of both. You can read more on this here.
Regardless of these issues, Gonzalez has seen his Mayoral Campaign go as well as could be expected for a first time candidate. In addition to raising a tremendous amount of money, he has the backing of Governor DeSantis and Senator Scott. In order to secure a spot in the runoff, trying to outflank longtime Republicans like Carollo and Portilla, Gonzalez has leaned into MAGA and DOGE. Having served on Trump’s transition committee, Gonzalez has not shied away from this affiliation. He is clearly trying to aim himself as a tried and true MAGA conservative, but not one with the ethical baggage of Portilla and Carollo.
He is a strong candidate to advance to the runoff. The question is if his newness to the scene can overcome the still-strong loyalty folks like Carollo and Portilla have.
Who makes the Runoff?
The last question is who will make the December runoff for this office. Conventional wisdom, and I am inclined to agree, is that Elaine Higgins is the most likely to secure a runoff spot. She has consolidated a great deal of Democratic support and has a strong campaign. She will likely come in first, and likely needs to come in first in order to maintain momentum into a runoff.
For Republicans, their best bet to hold the Mayoralty is Gonzalez, as he has the least baggage. Gonzalez has campaigned as someone going against the corruption of the Carollo crowd, but also against the “leftist” that he will surely tie Higgins as one of.
However, there is a real risk for the GOP that Carollo, who has a strong loyal base of voters, makes the runoff. If Carollo advances with Higgins, many folks like Gonzalez and Suarez will find it hard to back him. Granted its corrupt Miami so who knows. Generally speaking, however, Carollo represents the best chance for Democrats in terms of a fractured GOP giving Higgins a stronger runoff spot.
Portilla, Suarez, and Russell all need luck to make the runoff; likely based on the perfect splitting of the vote among other candidates.
We will see how things go on Tuesday! I’ll for sure be following up once the vote is in.