Issue #254: The Excuse Florida Republicans will use to Redraw Districts
Don't believe a word they say
Over the last two months, redistricting has been a major issue across the nation. The “Redistricting Wars” - as they have been dubbed, kicked off with Donald Trump pushing Texas republicans to redraw their Congressional map to create five new GOP-dominant seats. Trump has continued to push several additional states to redraw their maps, eager to avoid Democrats, who currently lead in the congressional polling, from winning the US House in 2026. Democrats have responded in places like California with their own redraws; and states like Maryland and Illinois are considering following suit. I have covered all of these developments in my Redistricting Wars 4 Part Series; which you can check out in the link.
Amid all of this, the question in Florida has been, what role with this state play in the redistricting fight? In this article, I will dive into the current Florida Congressional Map, what is being discussed in Florida, and what may be done if a remap does happen.
The Current Map in Florida
Florida already has a very right-wing map, the product of a DeSantis-led push in the 2022 legislative session. The map passed in 2022 was a plan that gave Republicans 20 seats and Democrats just 8. I summarized the entire redistricting saga in this article you see below: Issue 200.
The map passed was very different from the original drafts lawmakers had been pushing for. Originally lawmakers were much more keen to pass a map that benefitted them a bit, but did not go overboard in gerrymandering. This stemmed from Florida having two amendments, the Fair Districts Amendments, that ban partisan gerrymandering, mandate compactness when possible, and aim to protect racial minority districts.
However, as DeSantis looked to run for President in 2024, he pushed for an extreme gerrymander, something he could use to brag about on the campaign trail in the GOP primaries. After months of debate and threats of primary challenges (see Issue 200) - DeSantis got his way and the legislature passed his proposal, seen below.
Shortly after the map became law, I did a detailed breakdown of the changes to each district. You can read that breakdown here. The map passed in 2022 saw Democrats lose 3 of their Congressional seats. In addition, the one new seat Florida got was drawn for the Republicans, allowing the GOP to net 4 seats out of the 2022 elections in Florida.
In 2024, the map produced the same breakdown of seats. Despite statewide Florida going from Trump +3 to Trump +13, no districts changed hands. Several Democratic seats got much narrower, but no Biden seat flipped to Trump; a reflection of how rigid and inelastic the plan was.
Under the current map, there are several single-digit Harris seats that could be altered, of course any new Trump seats would also likely be districts that backed Biden in 2020.
What do Republicans Want to Do?
In early August, it became clear Florida would be involved in the redistricting debate. This confirmation came when Daniel Perez, the Speaker of the Florida House, announced he would form a committee of members to examine the issue of mid-decade redistricting. This was argued to be a response to the Florida Supreme Court’s recent redistricting ruling (more on that in a minute).
Before Perez made his announcement, Governor Ron DeSantis had already been pushing for a possible redraw, and complaining that Florida deserved more Congressional districts. However, DeSantis’ rambling carried little weight since he no long as powerful as he once was - constantly at war with his own legislature at this point. See this article of mine from January on that dynamic.
All major political actors understood that it was Donald Trump that would push action in Florida, not the Governor. As word has filtered down that Trump does want Florida to examine redistricting in his now-home-state, Perez signed on. It should also be noted that Perez is in talks with Trump to run for Attorney General of Florida, a move that would put him in a primary with DeSantis’ appointed AG, James Uthmeier.
What remains unclear is how far different Republicans want to go in any effort to remap the state. There are only 8 Democrats left, and its widely understood no map could realistically eliminate more than 5 of those seats. You can find accounts posting their own “25-3” maps across twitter. All these maps largely rely on three Democratic vote sinks, one in Orlando and two in Southeast Florida. The Democrats at risk for elimination in such an extreme scenario are…
Darren Soto’s 9th district
Kathy Castor’s 14th districts
Louis Frankel’s 22nd district
Jared Moskowitz’s 23rd district
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz’s 25th district
However, there are two districts here open to significant debate; the 9th and 14th. Touching those could open up state and federal lawsuits that Republicans may not want to risk. I’ll talk more about those issues in one moment.
Broadly speaking, the DeSantis camp is apparently ready to go for a 25-3 plan. This is mainly driven by DeSantis’ desire to be a big conservative hero and rehabilitate his standing ahead of the 2028 Republican Primaries. There has also been discussion of drawing a new Republican-leaning seat in Tampa for Lt Governor Jay Collins to run in; if Collins does not end up running for Governor.
Meanwhile, the Trump White House and several legislative Republicans are more content to peal off just 2 to 3 seats, more in the southeast Florida area. Lawmakers, who know they will be subject to lawsuits that will entail years of discovery and depositions, would like to keep things as they are, but know they cannot defy Trump. Perez considering running for Attorney General definitely plays into this calculus. The Republican-controlled State Senate, meanwhile, has been fairly quiet on the whole issue.
There are several competing visions for a remap being debate internally. However, one issue hanging over the proceedings is what Republicans think the Florida Courts will let them get away with. Lets discuss that next.
Fair Districts and the Florida Courts
As I mentioned, Florida has anti-gerrymandering provisions written into its constitution. These “Fair Districts Amendments” were passed in 2010, a campaign that I covered in this article. These amendments set up two key tiers for line drawing.
Tier 1 – Lines cannot be drawn to favor or disfavor an incumbent or party. Districts also cannot be drawn to diminish the ability of racial or language minorities to elect candidates of their choosing. Districts must be made up of contiguous territory.
Tier 2 – Districts must be compact, as equal in population as possible, and honor administrative boundaries when possible.
In the years following their passage, the Florida Supreme Court, made up of Lawton Chiles and Charlie Crist appointees, was aggressive in holding Republicans accountable on gerrymandering; leading a 2015 strike-down of the congressional map. However, thanks to mandated retirements, the modern Florida Supreme Court is very conservative, with 5 of the 7 justices appointed by Ron DeSantis.
The effect of the court change was felt clearest just a few months ago in a ruling about the 2022 Congressional map. In the 2022 plan, the most egregious action from the map was the elimination of the Black-performing 5th Congressional district; a seat that united Black voters from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. A seat that was in both draft plans the State House and State Senate included, but which DeSantis demanded was removed.
The elimination of a Black-performing seat in North Florida, something that existed since 1992, was the most egregious act of racial gerrymandering in Florida in decades. However, just two months ago, the Florida Supreme Court rejected a Fair Districts lawsuit, ruling that the 5th district was not protected.
The Court case relied on a flawed argument that the 5th district was racially-predominant, meaning that race was the only reason the district was drawn. The court ignored the issue of race consciousness, which is where race is part of a line drawing decision but not the only reason; a practice that is allowed by the courts. The DeSantis-appointed justices did not consider alternatives like a Jacksonville-only Black seat, clearing aiming to draft an opinion in favor of DeSantis. I take the court ruling apart in the above issue. So go there if you want more background details.
Long story short, the courts ruling shows these justices are not especially concerned with Fair Districts and are willing to undermine it as much as possible. They will likely give Republicans great leeway if they chose to redraw their lines. I also think the court’s opinion give lawmakers an opening to redraw one portion of Florida specifically. specifically in the southeast.
However, before delving into Southeast Florida, lets discuss the issues of remaps for either Tampa or Orlando, and why Republicans may not touch it.
How Fair to Test the Courts?
For Republicans who want to go for a 25-3 map, the big issue is how to justify redrawing the 9th and 14th specifically. As I laid out in my article on the Supreme Court ruling, I feel this current court will give Republicans great leeway in how they draw lines. However, the Fair Districts rules around banning partisan gerrymandering mean that they cannot just outright say “we are drawing for partisan reasons” - otherwise the court has an easy reason to strike down any changes.
Now the DeSantis camp especially would be fine outright challenging Fair Districts on constitutional grounds, hoping the Supreme Court maybe just invalidates them entirely. However, that is its own dynamic, and one I’m not sure actually plays out. So I am sticking within the bounds of current case law. That case law, per the latest court ruling, keeps Fair Districts in place, but gives the legislature alot of “benefit of the doubt.”
The 9th Congressional
There is little benefit of the doubt, under current precedent, that can then be given to redrawing the 9th district; held by Democrat Darren Soto. This district, based in the Orlando area, is very compact and is majority-Hispanic. It is current 50% Hispanic Voting-Age population. In terms of registration, it is 45% Hispanic and rising.
Since Darren Soto won this district in 2016, he has been the candidate of choice for the Hispanic community, which is heavily Puerto Rican. While the district has been historically heavily Democratic, it has swung to the right. In 2024, the district went from backing Biden by 17% to backing Harris with just 3.5%. Darren Soto, however, did win re-election by 13%. I wrote about the political moves within the district, and Osceola County specifically, in my first post-election analysis.
The district is protected under Fair Districts tier for protected racial minority seats. In the July court ruling, the court said the North Florida 5th was not allowed because it was drawn with just race in mind and was not compact enough. This district, which is all of Osceola County and part of Southern Orange, cannot be argued to be racially predominant. Such a seat does not violate any compactness requirements and performs for Hispanic voters. It is a textbook protected seat. If the Supreme Court of Florida allowed this district to be broken apart, then Fair Districts are 100% useless (vs the 75% useless I’d argue they current are).
There is also a real risk for lawmakers that if they try and mess with the 9th district, it could be subject to a federal court case under the Voting Rights Act. Now that the district is majority-Hispanic, and performs for Hispanic voters, it could very well be protected under federal law. Touching the 9th district is a can of worms I’m not sure most Republican lawmakers want to get into. Trump and DeSantis may be fine with going that far, but day-to-day lawmakers will be the first ones subject to depositions in lawsuits.
The 14th Congressional
The other debatable remap effort would be in Tampa Bay. Here Democrat Kathy Castor sits in this Harris +8% seat. Originally a district that backed Biden by 19 points, the seat was drawn to be a vote-sink for Democrats in the area; allowing the rest of the districts to lean Republican.
For Republicans, the issue with redrawing Tampa Bay is two-fold. The first is that in redrawing the lines to eliminate this Democratic seat, they risk making other districts less red. If Republicans did not spread Democratic voters out evenly enough, the risk turning several seats into lighter-red seats at risk of being lost in Democratic-friendly midterm.
That issue aside, the other debate is what the courts would allow. Any effort to redraw Tampa Bay would obviously be partisan, as their is no other court reasoning to consider a remap of the area at all. Any Florida Court would instantly understand such a remap is entirely about partisan desires, something not allowed under Fair Districts. Granted, considering this modern court, its entirely possible they just go along with it if no Republican outright states “yeah we are drawing this seat for Jay Collins to run in.”
If Republicans do move forward on this area being remapped, their are infinite possible scenarios. One layout I came up with is seen below; a plan designed to turn the 14th into a swing seat while also ensuring the surrounding districts remain red.
If I was a Republican line drawer, this would be the general vibe I was going for. Under this plan, the 13th, 15th, and 16th are all Trump +10 seats. The 14th is converted into a Trump +4 seat. I basically turn the 14th into a Tossup/Lean R seat (vs the current SAFE DEM status), not making it any redder at the expense of its neighbors. How the lines match up with precinct data can be seen below.
For any Republican map makers, they will need to carve up several different Democratic areas across districts in order to even things out. These would be obvious to any court as a clearly partisan effort. However, the Supreme Court of Florida may be able to muster the best Sergeant Schultz impression when the lawsuit comes to their desk.
Remapping Tampa Bay is still far more likely to me than trying to remap the 9th. However, both of these moves would be major legal gambles for the GOP. I do believe, however, that remapping Southeast Florida has a much easier pathway forward.
Lets dive into Southeast Florida and why Republicans likely think they have good standing ground there.
How Republicans Can Justify a Redraw
While Republicans may run legal risks if they dare touch Tampa Bay or Orlando, I believe the Court has given the GOP the perfect excuse to redraw Southeast Florida. The key is in this provision of the Court’s July ruling. In their conclusion, the court made it clear that while their ruling only applied to the 5th district, they were open to discussing what other districts may be considered racially predominant and mandating a redraw.
The Court basically said “other districts may violate our standards for considering race in redistricting” without naming any seats specifically. This vagueness gives Republicans the opening to say “well we think we know what districts might be at issue, and we want to go ahead and remap to get ahead of any future challenges. Nothing nefarious going on here.”
The district that clearly is on Republican minds is the 20th Congressional District, a seat held by Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick.
The 20th Congressional district, currently drawn to unite the Black communities of Palm Beach and Broward County, has existed in some form since the 1990s. Originally held by Alcee Hastings until his death in 2021, the district is really dominated by Broward County.
DeSantis himself has taken aim at the district, claiming the seat has lines “almost like claws that go out. It’s the most irregularly shaped district on Florida’s map.” Now, in my issue on the Supreme Court’s July ruling, I pointed out how this district is PART OF THE DESANTIS MAP. Ron DeSantis complaining about it now ignores this was the district in the map he submitted to lawmakers.
Now I will also be the first to defend the 20th as a district designed to give Black communities in both counties the ability to unite and elect a candidate of their choice. I don’t have an issue with these lines, as I care less about compactness than I do racial minority districts. That said, the 20th could be restructured while still creating a minority-performing seat - it does not have to look as it does.
I believe Republicans will use an opportunity to remap the 20th, arguing that its racially predominant. This will be their excuse to take up redistricting in the first place. It will be their “cover” for initiating a new map process. “Oh its not about increasing Republican seats, we need to fix the 20th.”
Redrawing the 20th
First things first, the Republicans are not going to try and redraw the 20th to be a Republican seat. The 20th is definitely a protected Black-performing seat under both Fair Districts and the Voting Rights Act. The key is reason its protected is it does not have to be drawn to be a two-county district. A seat can be drawn just in Broward County. See this proposal of mine, a seat based just in Central Broward County.
This district would likely meet the racial district protections of the VRA and Fair Districts. It is 42% Black Voting Age Population; with whites being 29% and Hispanics being 24%. However, the key election for this Harris +38 seat would be the Democratic Primary: which is 20 points more Black than white. Also some line changes could increase than Black % into the mid 50s. This is just a rough draft idea.
In drawing this layout, Republicans could argue they are making a more compact Black-performing seat. The district also happens to grab many more white Democrats, taking them out of Jared Moskowitz’s district. We will get the the effects of that in a moment.
Republican lawmakers could also justify their changes to the 20th my making changes to another Black-performing seat, the 24th. This district, held by Democrat Frederica Wilson, is currently a 43% Black VAP. The district currently connects the heavily-Black inland Dade communities with the coastal towns like Miami Beach and Aventura. Republicans could easily restructure this seat to grab more of Southeast Broward county, boosting the BVAP share.
Now since the current 24th still performs for Black voters, being over 60% Black in the Democratic primary, such a move to change the BVAP would be considered possible “packing” of Black voters. However, Republicans may count on the courts giving them the benefit of the doubt on that front.
In making this change, Florida retains one Black seat that is right around 50% BVAP; it just switched from the 20th to 24th. This is not a legal requirement, and I absolutely view it as a cynical move. But this is a perfect move for Republicans to do and then push in their press and them simply “cleaning up district lines” and “respecting Black voters electoral concerns.” This of course is nonsense after they abandoned the cause of the 5th district. Their real reason for making these changes is what I’ll now discuss.
Turning the 23rd and 25th into Trump Seats
Republicans will say redistricting was needed to make changes to the 20th, but that they care “so much” about Black voters, and worked hard to ensure no additional district eliminations (like the 5th) were taking place. This will, however, be entirely bullshit reasoning to hide from their real motivations. By restructuring both of these Black-performing seats, the rest of Southeast Florida needs to be updated. This is where Republicans can go in and restructure lines that JUST HAPPEN to benefit the Republicans.
This layout below is in what I could see Republicans doing. In this plan, the 23rd and 25th are converted into districts that backed Donald Trump.
First lets look at what is being done in Palm Beach. Now, with the 20th no longer going into its northern county, the Black voters of the district must go into some district. In this proposal, I speculate that Republicans may opt to turn Lois Frankel’s 22nd district into more of a Democratic vote sink. While her district went from Biden +17% to Harris +6% in 2024, Republicans may still feel she cannot be beaten. Hence they may opt to just funnel Democrats into her seat.
Such a layout below would be a solidly Democratic seat, voting for Harris +14%; but it would also unite much of the Black community in eastern Palm Beach county.
Republicans would likely claim this layout is designed to turn the 22nd into a Black-opportunity seat. This would be a heavily Democratic district that is also 1/3 Black in the all-important primary.
The key affect with the new 22nd and remapped 20th is that the 23rd district, held by Democrat Jared Moskowitz, sheds tens of thousands of Democratic voters. The voters lost to the Broward-based 20th lean heavily Democratic. Meanwhile, as the district would loop around Frankel’s new seat, it would pick up many more Northern Palm Beach Republicans. The result would be a district going from Harris +2 to Trump +5.
Republicans have it out for Jared Moskowitz, who has embarrassed them at several instances in House committee meetings. He is considered one of the top targets for any redraw.
While Republicans could try and remap both his and Frankel’s seats to be both Trump districts, doing so would make both only modestly Trump, maybe by 2%. If the goal is to oust Moskowitz, Frankel may get a vote-sink. If Republicans wanted to try and cause trouble for both Democrats, then they may try and pair Palm Beach’s Black voters with the GOP-leaning 21st, as seen below.
This plan, however, runs the risk of making the 21st in play in a blue wave. It also could be too much of a “dummymander” that doesn’t achieve any of its goals. This might be the type of aggressive map DeSantis would like, even if its outcome is far less clear when 2026 comes around.
Meanwhile, down in southern Broward County, the restructuring of the 24th would allow Republicans to make Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s 25th district redder. A remap could see the district lose heavily Democratic Black-majority precincts on the Broward/Dade border. Meanwhile, it could then stretch down to grab voters in the incredibly-Republican Northeast Coast of Dade County.
Such a district would now be a Trump +3 seat. This would not be a guarantee pickup, as down-ballot it still leans Democratic; plus the midterm will likely be a more Democratic year. However, this would put further pressure on DWS.
The impact of such remaps (forgetting my alternative Palm Beach plan) would be to convert two Democratic districts into modest Trump seats. Both the 23rd and 25th would become Trump districts, but both would still have backed Biden in 2020.
For Republicans, the hope would be that 2024 is the new Florida baseline, not 2020. Granted, even if Democrats held both districts next year, the map changes would lead to more resources being needed for defense. If Republicans force Democrats even more on the defense in this area, it moves money away from pickup opportunities.
Final Notes
I will be keeping an eye on Florida redistricting developments. It is possible we will get more indications from lawmakers in the coming weeks. When a remap might happen remains fairly unclear. Once we have some more information, I will have an update!
Just remember, whatever reason they give for remapping, they are entirely full of shit. Any goal of changing the map is to add Republican districts, a blatant violation of the Fair Districts amendments. Don’t let them tell you their remap is for any other reason than naked partisanship.
What about the Florida Senate? They have expressed little interest in redistricting. Also, Trump and GOP candidates are losing special elections in Florida. District 14 in particular( a very popular Kathy Castor)is getting even bluer, Brian Nathan a State Senate Dem candidate just won Collins old seat.