Last week, I wrote about the emerging redistricting battles going on in America. Back in June, Donald Trump pushed for Texas to redraw its Congressional districts to increase the number of Republicans elected in the upcoming midterms. This call to “gerrymander” the districts, drawing them to achieve a stated political goal, has kicked off a massive debate in the country over what maps are “fair” vs gerrymandered.
My issue from last week, Issue #249, looked not only at the history of gerrymandering in America, but looked at the breakdown of the current Congressional map. In that article, which pointed out Democratic and Republican gerrymanders, I cited several studies showing the current House map is biased toward Republicans.
While no party is innocent of gerrymandering; whether historically or in the present day; the fact is more states have GOP gerrymanders than Democratic ones in the current map. For all questions or debate over the current lines, consult the article above.
This article will look at the current redistricting fight in Texas and how other states are responding. California is in the process of proposing a new Congressional map to counter the Texas plan; while other states are also considering entering the fray. This article will specifically look at the extent of Donald Trump’s involvement in these efforts, and why its so damaging to have President pressure lawmakers like this. Then my next article will look at how Democratic states are responding and give my own take on the best path forward. First, however, I want to establish how serious an issue this current Trump push to redistricting is.
With no time to delay, lets dive in.
Why Trump wants remaps
Anyone who even casually follows politics is not new to the issue of redistricting and gerrymandering. The idea that a political party would want to rig the lines to ensure their own success is sadly seen as “politics as usual” in this country. As I laid out in Issue 249, the fact gerrymandering is so normalized is a massive frustration for me.
However, what makes this latest redistricting foray so alarming is that its being done at the orders of the President. Rather than an internal state debate, we are seeing a President try and restructure the nature of Congress to ensure his loyalists remain in power. This is a glaring escalation that has never before occurred in my lifetime.
The reason this is happening is simple, Trump knows the midterms will likely see Republicans lose control of the US House. As the year has gone on, Democrats have slowly expanded their lead in the Generic Congressional ballot. At the start of the year, the public was split on who should control Congress. Democrats are now up by five points.
Recent polling further highlights issue for the administration
58% of Americans think the country is heading in the wrong direction
Trump’s personal approval is 15 points underwater
41% approval vs 56% disapproval
Trump’s job approval is 16 points underwater
40% approval to 56% disapproval
53% say the economy is getting worse vs 24% saying better
A large majority of Trump’s actions have not been popular. He was elected, as I laid out here, on economics; winning at a time when 70% of the country was unhappy with the economy and their financial situation. His administration has, predictably to me, done nothing but make things worse for even many of his loyal followers. Meanwhile, the Biden/Trump or Clinton/Trump voters were already poised to vote Democratic in the midterms. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is one of the most unpopular pieces of major legislation in decades. All data points indicate a blue midterm in 2026.
As many have pointed out, but is well summarized here, the Trump push to remap congressional lines is a glaring sign of weakness. An admittance that under the current map, which still has a GOP lean, Democrats would take the House. After all, Republicans only hold a 5 margin. Previous Presidential midterms have seen the party in the Presidency lose anywhere from 10 to 30 seats; sometimes many more.
Politically, a redistricting fight across the nation will yield more new Republican-aligned seats than Democratic ones. Republicans have more areas to draw new lines; as some states have split party control or have independent commissions. I will dive into key states further in this article, but all political experts agree that the current map has a GOP bias and remaps, even with Democratic states like California getting involved, will likely see an increase that GOP bias.
Now I have made a very brazen claim - that the redistricting fight is just about the GOP trying to maintain control of Congress even if they lose the nationwide popular vote. Any Republican-aligned readers may think I’m exaggerating Trump’s desires. Well, lets look at the Texas remap debate and what Trump himself has been saying.
The Texas Plan to Redistrict
The possibility of Texas redistricting in 2025 first emerged in June. As the summer got going, reports began to float out that President Trump was pushing Texas to look at redrawing its lines to increase the number of Republican districts in the state. The word from the White House was straight forward; if Democrats won the House in the 2026 midterms, then all of Trump’s (illegal) actions would be investigated and his legislative agenda (fucking over everyone not rich) would be stalled.
The push for a remap was directly tied to concerns about the partisan control of Congress. An advisor close to the President made this warning very clear about any Republican who did not go along with his redistricting push.
The president would pay close attention to those in his party who help or hurt that effort, the person warned.
Before we look at the new districts, we should review the map that Trump was demanding Republicans make changes to.
The Current Congressional Map
Republicans in Texas were nervous about the plan to redraw the lines. They initially passed an extreme gerrymander in 2021; drawing districts with little elasticity and packing in Democrats as much as they could. Back in 2018 and 2020, there were several competitive House districts in the suburbs around Dallas and Houston. However, the 2021 remap eliminated those districts; with the suburbs swinging to the left either getting cracked across several seats or further packed into already Democratic districts.
I have a 2020 President breakdown in my last article, but below is how those 2021 districts performed in the 2024 Presidential election. As the results show, a vast majority of districts are either DEEP RED or DEEP BLUE. Only two seats were within 10% in the Presidential contest.
In the 2020 election, Biden won two additional seats, the Hispanic-majority 28th and 34th; both on the Mexican border. Those border districts are the only remotely swingish seats in the state. The 2021 remap was already a major gerrymander in its own right.
The current House map is popular with the Republican delegation for Texas. The 2024 House Elections in Texas saw none of the Republican incumbents face real threat. Outside of CD15, all the GOP incumbents sat in solidly red districts. Democratic incumbents held the 28th and 34th even as they flipped to Trump. Again the only contests were in the border.
Despite the delegation being eager to maintain the current map, and Governor Abbott agreeing with them, a remap has gone ahead due to Trump’s involvement. It was a Trump call to the Governor that forced a remap to go ahead.
The New Proposal
Once Trump got Texas Republicans to bend the knee, those Texas members became fierce defenders of their effort. When questioned on the issue while appearing on CNN, State Rep Mitch Little did not try to hide partisan reasoning. I have some key lines below but check the video link for the full interview.
Host: "Why do this in a census off year when you just redistricted in 2021?"
Little: "Because we can. We have the votes to do so. Its legal to do so. Its legal for us to draw the lines based on political performance."
Host: "Why should you, though?"
Little: "Because it's good for our party. Its good for our state. We need to ensure Donald Trumps agenda continues to be enacted through his second term.”
At the end of July, the Texas GOP released their proposal; which eliminated three safe Democratic seats and created three more Safe GOP seats. The border districts were also made redder; leaving a map with ZERO districts decided within 10% in the last Presidential contest. This conformed with Little’s comments on CNN, which said part of the goal was to ensure all the border districts became safe for the GOP.
The map is incredibly inelastic. A much more detailed review of the map can be read about here; which goes into which Democratic incumbents are most in trouble. That article also highlights how even in very close races, like the 2018 Senate race, the map is very red. That 2018 Senate race saw Democrat Beto O'Rourke come within 2% of defeating Senator Ted Cruz for re-election. However, under this map, Beto would only win 12 districts to Cruz’s 26.
As the debate over Texas waged on, Trump did not back away from the ultra-partisan move, but instead defended it further.
"We are entitled to five more seats."
Less anyone think this is about anything other than party control. These comments were echoed further by the Texas Lt Governor and countless other Republican politicians. They all reiterated that the goal is to increase the number of Republican seats to prevent the “progressives” from winning Congress. Popular will be damned.
State House Democrats flee Texas
The Congressional map changes were inserted into an August special session already planned to deal with the disastrous flooding in Texas; which tragically killed 135 people. The inserting of the highly-partisan Congressional issue into what should have been a more bipartisan issue drew more condemnation.
Democrats in Texas had little they could do to stop the proposal, as Republicans maintain firm grip on the legislature. The lone option, specifically available for State House Democrats, was to flee the state to deny the chamber of a quorum for conducting business. As the session began, that is what Democrats did.
"We will not allow disaster relief to be held hostage to a Trump gerrymander. As of today, this corrupt special session is over," (Statement from the caucus)
Several dozen Democrats fled the state; with at least 50 going to Chicago. As a result of the move, the House did not have the quorum to conduct business. The move comes with a $500 a day fine and Abbott threatened the arrest of lawmakers. Fines and compelling the return of members is a fairly normal recourse, as walk-outs and efforts to break quorum are not new tactics. Oregon Republicans would famously do this several times over Democratic legislation in the last decade.
However, the response to the Texas Democrat effort was much more hostile and alarming than previously seen.
Abbott pushed for the Texas courts to declare the seats vacant; something with little to no legal backup.
Abbott and Texas AG Ken Paxton insisted any donations to lawmakers for their food and hotels would be considered “bribery”
The FBI began to get involved in trying to locate lawmakers, a major infringement in state government.
(Note GOP walkouts in Oregon and elsewhere never saw the FBI under Biden to get involved).
Fleeing lawmakers faced constant violent threats, with a bomb thread leading to the evacuation of a Chicago hotel.
Through all of this, the Texas Democrats pointed out the decision to leave the state was a major sacrifice. Texas lawmakers are paid just $7,200 a year; meaning virtually all members have regular jobs. Democratic State Rep James Talarico laid it out
“Many of our colleagues are leaving behind young children. Some are leaving behind aging parents. We’re all leaving behind our day jobs, which is how we pay the bills. And so this was not an easy decision, but it was a necessary one, because Donald Trump is essentially rigging the midterm elections next year. He’s trying to hold on to power despite what the American people may want.”
Many of the fleeing lawmakers did interviews and laid out their reasoning for leaving. State Rep Ann Johnson laid out the issue at stake - here harkening back to when Trump tried to steal the vote in Georgia after the 2020 election.
"When Donald Trump called Georgia Republicans and said, 'I just need you to find me 11,000 votes,' they said, 'No, sir, that's a step too far.' But when he called Texas Republicans and said, 'I need you to steal me five seats,' they said, 'Does July work for you?'"
Texas Democrats, correctly, pointed out their fleeing was the only way to either stop the vote or draw enough attention to it. Long term, fleeing the state was not sustainable due to the personal lives of the lawmakers; whether it was work or family. It is also possible the right-wing Texas courts would have pushed vacancies or some other go-around.
After two weeks out of the state; which saw the original legislative special session come to an end, several Democrats returned to the state. The move came as California preps to introduce a map that will aim to neutralize the GOP gains the Texas remap would create. I’ll talk more about California next time. Meanwhile, the Democrats that returned have pledged to fight the maps in court; namely on racial gerrymandering grounds. A federal case there is the best bet.
The walk out definitely made the redistricting fight a major national story.
Final Texas Map
After Democrats returned to Texas, the passage of the map presumed. Republicans made changes to the map; namely making one of Houston-based seats even redder.
With the new map and with quorum restored, Trump posted online that he wanted the map passed ASAP. In this post, Trump directly tied to the map to winning the 2026 midterms. See for yourself.
The final Texas map would likely add at least 3 to 5 Republicans to the next Congress; as few to none of these Trump seats can be won by a Democrat. Three of the Democratic districts were turned into deep red seats. The other two of the “five seats” Trump wanted are the Democratic-held border districts; both which flipped from Biden to Trump in 2024 but are now made much redder. The question will be if the DEM incumbents in the 28th and 34th and hold on in their Trump +10% seats. Politics on the border is complicated, with lots of ancestral Democrats who split their tickets. That will be a topic for another day.
Texas is one state. What are Republicans trying in other states?
Other GOP Target States
Texas is the biggest GOP state debating redistricting, but there are a handful of other states heading Trump’s call to protect him in the midterms. The White House and increased its clamor for GOP states to remap; with the effort only growing in steam as Texas finishes its map.
Missouri Likely to Crack Kansas City
Originally the subject of debate in 2021’s redistricting process, Missouri seems like a very likely state to remap next. The Republican Governor, Mike Kehoe, in response to a push to look at redrawing their Congressional map, stated…
“My personal preference is just keep Speaker (Mike) Johnson in control in D.C. His values align much better with Missourians than Congressman (Hakeem) Jeffries does, and I think that would be the goal.”
Missouri currently has a 6-2 map; with two Democratic seats based in Kansas City and St. Louis respectively. Back in 2021 and 2022, Republicans debating cracking Kansas City and creating a 7-1 map. However, that plan did not come to pass. Now, that outcome is the most likely map to emerge. Below you can see the current map and a possible cracking scenario I drew up.
Republicans in Missouri are not hiding their political drive. Missouri Congressman Bob Onder has been pushing to gerrymander Kansas City for several years now. When questioned on his push, he stated
"Politics is part of the process of drawing political maps. Always has been, always will be. And, I think the real question is whether Missouri Republicans are going to step up to the plate and fight for what we believe in, as opposed to ceding control of Congress to progressive Democrats."
Here we have just open partisan reasoning. Cracking Kansas City is good because we cannot have progressives win control of Congress. As for the voters of Kansas City themselves? Well fuck them.
Indiana Wary of Remap
Another state that has been considered a possible GOP gerrymandering effort is Indiana. The state is already home to a modest gerrymander, with a map that breaks down 7-2 in favor of the GOP.
Indiana is very red to be sure, but Republicans already engaged in gerrymandering around the Indianapolis region; packing Democrats as much as they could into the 7th district.
Before this remap, the 5th district had become a competitive seat; backing Donald Trump by just 2% in the 2020 election. That was driven by the Democratic growth in the northern suburbs above Indianapolis. The 5th has previously been Romney by 17% and fell to Trump by 12% in 2016. However, under the 2022 map, the Indianapolis suburbs where packed into the 7th; allowing the new 5th to be Trump +16% in 2020.
National Republicans now want to redraw the 1st district; a swingish seat that has already begun to trend to the right. The district covers the working class communities of Gary and Michigan City. While the district voted for Biden by 8% in 2020, it only backed Harris by 0.4% in 2024. The district is already becoming competitive, but the White House wants to speed things up.
Republicans in Indiana, however, have been reluctant to redraw their map. Both Governor Mike Braun and state legislative Republicans have balked at the request.
“I have tremendous respect for President Trump and love what he’s doing. But for Hoosiers, Indiana Republicans, to abandon their principles and basically take away the rules, that sets such a dangerous precedent moving forward and for our children.” - Republican State Senator Jim Lucas
After weeks of Indiana Republicans hedging on the issue, the Trump administration has now been floating the threats of primary challenges to Republicans who don’t sign on with map changes.
“Politics is a team sport, and they prefer to do things with the team … but if Republicans refuse to play team ball, they will very likely begin to focus on upgrading players,” (White House insider)
Robo calls and texts have been flowing into the state from right-wing activists pushing the state to remap. Comments like those from conservative commentator Charlie Kirk are rapidly increasing; driven by White House pressure.
In addition to riling up grassroots Republicans to call for primary threats, the White House been pushing for weeks behind the scenes. A few weeks back, JD Vance went to Indiana to try and get Republicans on board for a new map. The divide within the Indiana GOP, at least as of this writing, is national vs local. The Congressional delegation, all Republicans who value a close relationship with the President, have backed redistricting the map. It is opposition in the state legislature and Governor that is stalling any maps for the moment.
If I had to guess, I’d expect an Indiana remap is likely. Republicans always cave to the White House, so I’m not holding my breath. The result will be to make the 1st Republican-leaning, if not Safe Republican, and reduce Indiana to a 8-1 map.
Other Possible States
Right now Indiana and Missouri are seen as the biggest Republican-aligned redistricting pushes. Florida has announced they will be looking at possible redistricting changes in September. However, I will hold off discussing Florida in its own article. On the Florida front, the map is already extremely gerrymandered, with DeSantis forcing through a 20-8 map back in 2022.
Republicans talk of trying to siphon off 5 more seats, but that seems extremely unlikely. The 9th district is likely protected by the VRA, and many districts are already packed to hilt. Trying to rig a couple additional seats seems more likely. Like I said, however, I will talk all this up more in a future article.
Outside of Florida, only a few states remain for the GOP to realistically game the maps.
New Hampshire is currently in full GOP state government, but a remap there is unlikely. The current Congressional plan has both districts narrowly matching the statewide results. The 1st backed Harris by 2% and the 2nd backed Harris by 4%. In 2022, several conservative Republicans wanted to push a map that would create a Safe GOP and Safe DEM seat; as Republicans have struggled to flip either seat since 2014. However, then Governor Chris Sununu rejected this effort and current Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte recently ruled out any such move.
Nebraska, meanwhile, may give Republicans another chance to redistrict. The 2nd district there, located around Omaha, voted for Harris by 4% in 2024. With the Republican Incumbent, Don Bacon, retiring, Democrats see flipping that seat is a good possibility. So far there has been no concrete plans divulged, but Nebraska would be another state to watch.
Of course I’ll be keeping an eye if any developments in other states change. Next time, I will discuss the Democratic response, especially the remap being pushed in California. First, however, I want to close out to again re-iterate how important this issue is for the future of the Republic. This isn’t just a redistricting game.
Trump’s Disdain for Democracy
The latest move by Republicans, at the direction of Trump, is a clear effort to game the upcoming midterm elections in the favor of a President who has already demonstrated little care for legal norms or true democracy. Let me lay this out very clear……
This latest redistricting fight should not be viewed as a normal political debate. It should be viewed as the latest power grab from a man who cares about nothing other than holding on to power.
It should not be forgotten that as this debate goes on, Donald Trump recently met with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. At their summit, where Trump continues to do nothing to aid Ukraine’ fight for survival, the two strongmen apparently talked about US elections. Of course, Russia has not had a remotely fair election since the 1990s; with all modern votes there heavily rigged and controlled. Nevertheless, as Trump emerged from his meetings, he told Fox News how Putin likewise believed the 2020 election was rigged.
Of course Trump did not win in 2020. He lost. Countless court cases prove he lost. Several recounts proved he lost. Trump knows this, he knows he didn’t win, but he will never stop this claim. The man has never shown a hint of humility on elections. Never forget in 2016 he claimed he only lost the popular vote due to fraud. Also never forget that for all his anti-mail voting talk, in the 2024 election, he encouraged his voters to cast mail in ballots!
Trump is on TV touting what a dictator and butcher tells him about our elections. That alone should be a five alarm fire about how little this man regards democratic norms and institutions. Never forget his lies led to THIS DAY.
Lets also not forget that on his first day back in office, Trump pardoned every single person convicted for the attempted coup of January 6th. This included people convicted for sedition and felony assault - including against police officers. (Back the blue my ass).
The President is a derange madman with no respect for Democracy and institutional norms. His redistricting effort is part of a broader scheme to never relinquish power, whether for himself or for allies who will protect him from any consequences.
Democrats and good government groups, even those who long fought for redistricting reform, have no choice but to fight this effort any way possible. In my next article, I will discuss those efforts to fight back in more detail.
Because I promise you this. The Republic is on the line in 2026.
Why do you downplay the racial angle in the redistricting? In Texas, all targets except Doggett are Black or Latino. In Missouri, Cleaver is the target. In Florida, DeSantis has mentioned only the only Haitian Member of Congress. If you listen to Carol Alvarado's speech in the TX Senate, as well as many floor speeches in the House, you won't be able to ignore the racial nature of this play.