Issue #218: How did the 'Home Alone' Neighborhood vote in 2024?
Did the McCallisters continue their left-wing movement
Since 2020, I have been indulging in a fun Christmas article tradition that mixes the political analysis I am most known for with some holiday nostalgia. In 2020, as I watched the classic 1990 movie ‘Home Alone’ - I thought to myself, “how would these people vote?” Well there is an answer to that because the famous McCallister house - this massive mansion - is a real house located in a real town.
The McCallister House, which just sold for $5 MILLION this month, is located in upscale Winnetka Village, which sits just north of Chicago. The town, home to around 12,000 people, is…..
90% white
92% of population has a Bachelor degree
2nd richest town in Illinois
13th richest town in the nation
This location matches the narrative of the movie, with the family living in the Chicago metro area. The novelization of the movie had Kevin’s father as a businessman and his mother as a fashion designer. The family is clearly well off like the rest of the neighbors. No wonder Harry and Marv were eager to rob them.
Looking at the evolving politics of Winnetka was the subject of my 2020 Christmas Article. This is the exact type of community we have seen rush in a more Democratic direction during the Trump era. These traditionally-Republican suburbs have been rejecting the MAGA movement; contrasted with many working-class traditional Democratic areas have moved into the Republican column. In 2020, Winnetka voted for Joe Biden by 36% points. Eight years earlier, it had backed Mitt Romney by double digits.
My initial article also delves into some of the down-ballot and referendum results in the village. The community remained more open to Republicans down-ticket, easily backing GOP candidates for District Attorney and being neck-and-neck for offices like Cook Circuit Clerk of Court. While these voters rejected MAGA, they were not lock-step democrats.
In 2022, I did a follow up article looking at how Winnetka voted in the midterm elections. These elections showed the village continue to move leftward. In the Gubernatorial race, JB Pritzker flipped the town after badly losing it four years earlier.
The article looked at how Winnetka went Democratic all the way down ballot - from state cabinet to county commission. The town moved firmly to the left of the state in 2022 and even voted Democratic for local office. Full details in that 2022 article.
It should be no shock that for this year, I wanted to look at how our Home Alone town voted once again.
Presidential Trends in Winnetka
For 2016 and 2020, the story of the Presidential elections were the working-class movement to Republicans with suburbs moving to Democrats. One of the major issues Kamala Harris ran into in 2024 was that these left-moving suburbs either stalled out in their swing, or tilted right. This was the big question for me regarding Winnetka, did it tilt back to the right or keep trending left?
The initial spring primaries certainty did not point to Trump making any real inroads in this community. In the Illinois Presidential Primary in March, Donald Trump got 81% of the vote to Nikkie Haley’s 15%. Cook County itself was nearly identical: 80% to 15%. However, in Winnetka, Trump only won the town by 8 points. He actually lost the precinct home to the McCallister house.
This result is not especially shocking if you think about it. This is the very type of community voter uninterested in Trump’s brand of populism. Its easy to see any Republican-voting McCallister’s being more in the Haley camp - willing to see Republicans go back to some “sanity.”
The Democratic ballot had twice as many votes cast, which itself is a telling story. Joe Biden, who was still in the race at that point, had little trouble besting the long-shot opposition he generated.
When the general election came around, with Harris replacing Biden on the ticket, the results in the town were very similar. Biden won the town by 36% in 2020 and Harris won the town by 34.8% in 2024.
The slight drop in Winnetka was symptomatic of a problem for Democrats across the nation. They lost more ground with working class voters and did not make up for it with suburban gains. For Harris to win, losing modest ground in Winnetka was ok if she made up ground in working class areas. This, however, did not happen.
If we look at Cook County as a whole, we see the problem clearly. Biden won the county by 50%; netting just under 1.2 million votes out of the county. In 2024, Harris won the county by just 42% and taking in just under 900,000. One issue for Democrats was lower turnout overall.
Upscale Winnetka looks similar, but we see more red on this map and more light blue. Turnout was down in Winnetka itself: 7,100 votes this time vs 7,900 votes four years earlier. In Winnetka, Harris got 600 fewer votes than Biden and Trump got 200 fewer votes than last time.
How did things swing within Winnetka? Well Precinct 10, Haley’s strongest in the primary, had a solid 8 point swing to the left. However, most precincts modestly moved to the right, including the McCallister area.
These swings are small overall, reflecting possible turnout differences and a handful of people flipping their vote. Its easy to imagine the father, Peter McCallister, voting for Biden in 2020 but then backing Trump in 2024 because of some vague argument about economics.
While Winnetka did trend slightly to the right, its position relative to the state has never been further to the left than it is now. In 2020, Winnetka was 19% left of the state. This time, as Illinois moved several points to the right, Winnetka finds itself 24 points to the left of the entire state.
Winnetka, even in the times it would vote Democratic, like 2008, remained firmly to the right of Illinois as a whole. However, the town now clearly finds itself firmly left of center, and unlikely to revert back anytime soon.
Referendums on the Ballot
In my 2020 and 2022 articles, I discussed how Winnetka’s deep-blue nature at the top of the ticket did not mean the same further down-ballot or in different ballot measures. This was true again in 2024.
This year, Illinois had three non-binding referendums for the voters.
One would create a new tax bracket for incomes over $1,000,000. It got 61% statewide.
Another would argue that reproductive treatments like in-vitro fertilization should be covered by health insurance. It got 73% statewide.
The final would create punishments for any candidate who attempts to interfere with or intimidate an election worker. It got 89% statewide.
The election worker measure was the least controversial, getting 89% statewide and 87% in Winnetka specifically. However, with the other two measure, Winnetka split its ticket.
It perhaps should be no surprise that one of the richest communities in Illinois was not in favor of a new tax bracket for themselves. This economic conservativism matches their rejection of a tax change in 2020 as well. Meanwhile, Winnetka backing expanded reproductive access also matches with a more socially liberal voting history.
Down-Ballot Democratic Support
As you move further down-ballot in Winnetka, the closer the races get. Races for Congress and State legislature were much closer in the village, but both went Democratic.
In the race for the 10th Congressional District, Congressman Brad Schneider secured 58% in Winnetka, just under his 60% districtwide. In a race for State House 18, Democratic Majority Leader Robyn Gabel secured 56% in Winnetka. This was far lower than her 79% districtwide showing, however.
Lets keep looking down-ballot.
Back in 2020, Winnetka had voted 2-1 Republican for State Attorney. Then State Attorney Kim Foxx was not popular in the moderate suburbs due to a mix of fear-mongering about “progressive prosecutors” but also self-inflicted wounds around things like the Jussie Smollett case. In 2024, she opted to retire and her preferred heir lost the Democratic primary to moderate Democrat Eileen O'Neill Burke. With this change in nominees, Democrats easily carried Winnetka in the DA race.
Also in 2020, the Circuit Clerk race had been within 2% in the village. This time Democratic nominee, Mariyana Spyropoulos, who ousted the incumbent Clerk in the March primaries, easily won the Village. Clearly at this point Winnetka has moved into an era of down-ballot Democratic support.
This down-ballot Democratic lean continues all the way down to the races for “Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago.” This agency covers most, but not all, of Cook County and deals with wastewater and flood control. The organization is made 9 commissioners, all elected district-wide on partisan ballots for six year terms. These elections see all candidates run on one ballot line and you pick your “top 3” choices. Each party can have up to 3 candidates, and the November ballot this year saw 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans, and 1 NPA vie for the three open spots. The 3 Democratic nominees beat the three Republican nominees countywide while winning around 53% to 54% in Winnetka.
In addition to the regular election for board seats, a special election was being held for the final two years of a term; giving us a regular one-on-one contest. That special was for appointed Incumbent Precious Brady-Davis; who made history in 2023 when JB Pritzker appointed her to an open seat - making her Cook County’s first Black Transgender official. In November, she easily won districtwide and got 53% in Winnetka.
Winnetka may not want you to raise their taxes, but they fully support the LGBT community.
Final Notes
With that, Winnetka voted Democratic up and down their ballot this year. It seems unlikely they will move back into a Republican column anytime soon. It seems very likely a majority of the McCallister household was not happy with how the Presidential election went.
While a majority McCallister family were almost surely in the Harris camp, there is one family member who is likely thrilled with the results. Word is Buzz is hoping that a Donny Presidency will lead to him getting a much-needed pardon for his actions at the capital on January 6th.