Issue #208: Halloween Article: The Polarization of Pennsylvania Coroners
Issue #208: Halloween Article: The Polarization of Pennsylvania Coroners
Here we are, Halloween just days before the 2024 Election. If you know me at all, you know I love Halloween. If you work in politics in any form, you will also know that Halloween during an election year sucks! You can never get as into it as you like… you know… because a real horror show awaits us if the evil orange man does not lose on Tuesday.
The one plus side to Halloween in an election year is that I can still talk about my favorite niche topic - Coroner Elections!
Yep, over 1,000 counties in America elect a county coroner - and do so on a partisan ballot. I did a deep dive into the office in 2021.
I’ve written about this topic multiple times at this point over the last several years. Just yesterday, you likely saw my newsletter on the Mississippi coroner elections of 2023. In that piece, I discussed how control of the coroner post, like most down-ballot offices, has begun to match up more with top of the ticket partisan leanings.
In Mississippi, Republicans netted enough posts to win a majority of the coroner offices for the first time in modern state history. This largely came from flipping counties that typically vote Republican for President or Governor. Often the offices would flip due to retirements or incumbents switching parties.
Today, in honor of the elections next week, I want to revisit the dynamics for coroners in the always-critical swing state of Pennsylvania.
This article will quickly go over how coroner posts moved since Donald Trump burst into the political scene. The realignment of suburbs to Democrats and rural working class areas firmly to Republicans has begun to move further down ballot. In Pennsylvania, the shifting partisan affiliation of the county coroners matches closely with the trends at the top of the ticket.
Pennsylvania Coroners in the Trump Era
When I did my first article on Coroners in October of 2017, the Republicans held a 44-16 lead in Pennsylvania, which just one year before had narrowly backed Donald Trump for President. Several counties, especially the massive urban centers, had appointed coroners and/or medical examiners rather than election.
Republicans held a handful of Clinton counties, while Democrats were especially strong in the ancestral democratic southwest.
Local county officials, from commissioners to Sheriffs to Coroners, are elected in odd-numbered years. The current year makeup can be seen below. Most counties hold their elections the year of the Governor race. In other words, 39 counties held coroner elections last year.
The election of local officials in the odd years (also known as off-cycle) can shield local officials from partisan headwinds, at least in theory. However, lately the odd-year voting has only delayed the inevitable realignment down-ballot. The first feel I got for this was shortly after I’d written my first article.
A week or two after publishing my first analysis, Pennsylvania held its 2017 local elections. That day, three coroner posts flipped. All three instances saw the incumbent, who’s party ID did not match how the county had voted for President, lose re-election.
In Chester and Monroe counties, two counties that voted for Hillary Clinton, Democrats knocked off the Republican incumbents. This was an especially big deal in Chester County - a traditional Republican suburb. When Donald Trump lost Chester County, he became the worst performing Republican in the county since 1912. His 9 point loss there was one example of the massive suburban swings that were beginning to occur for Democrats. Then in 2017, Democrats flipped four county offices, including Coroner.
This marked the first time Democrats had EVER WON LOCAL OFFICE in the history of the county.
Meanwhile, Greene County gave much more somber news for Democrats. This longtime ancestral Democratic county, which backed Donald Trump by 40 points just one year earlier, ousted its Democratic coroner by 8 votes.
Meanwhile, over in Republican Westmoreland County, it was not all bad news for Democrats. Longtime Democratic coroner Kenneth Bacha won his re-election easily.
However, just four years later, despite no scandal or issues, Bacha would lose his re-election to Republican challenger Tim Carson.
Bacha, who served as coroner for decades and who’s father served before him, lost to a challenger with little experience or background in the field. Bacha lost as several other local democrats fell in their races as well. Bacha was the closest to holding on, while other incumbents like the District Attorney lost by double digits.
I wrote about the saga in Westmoreland for Halloween two years ago.
Democrats flipped one more coroner post in 2019 - Bucks County - another of the suburban counties moving away from the GOP. Otherwise, all the flips have been with Republicans taking counties that backed Donald Trump. In 2023 alone, five coroner posts went to the Republicans. Only two were due to Incumbents losing, however.
In total, 12 counties have seen coroner partisan affiliation change. All done to match up with the 2020 Presidential results.
In total, the Republicans have made a net of six posts, flipping 9 seats but losing three.
Next Halloween I’d like to sit down and dig into the 2023 elections some more. Several of those races would make some good precinct maps.
To next year being a more properly fun Halloween…. hopefully.