MCIMAPS FL Primary Preview Part 1: US Senate and Congress
Plenty of drama across the state
Florida’s regular primaries are just one week away. Like previous years, I have been working on a hyper-detailed Primary Preview covering races all the way down the ballot.
I have finished the first part of my preview - a look at the US Senate and Congressional Primaries. This piece alone if 7,000 words! Yeah I talk about everything. I cannot fit it all in this newsletter, so click this link to go to my main website where I have maps, tables, and drama all in one prime location.
The 2024 Primary Preview for US Senate & Congress
This article (link above) starts off looking at the US Senate Primaries.
On the Democratic side, I look at the contest being former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is the frontrunner for the nomination. She does face a decent challenge from businessman Stanley Campbell; who has self-funded $1,000,000 for his bid. I discuss his longshot bid against DMP, while also look at what protest votes from the rural “Dixiecrats” we might see go to the two other no-name candidates. For backstory on Florida protest votes, check this article from two years ago.
I delve into the Congressional primaries; which are still being held on Ron DeSantis’ racial gerrymander of map. This map is being challenged in court for its cracking of Black voters in North Florida. Oral Arguments before the FL Supreme Court are schedule for September 12th; and I will be following that closely.
While many of these primaries are not in doubt; even races will clear winners have backstories to discuss. I delve into Kevin McCarthy funding a primary challenger to Matt Gaetz; an attempt at revenge for the motion to vacate from last year,
I delve into the shenanigans in the 8th district that are going to allow Mike Haridopolis to enter Congress and avoid any real primary. Political veterans know all about the former State Senate President’s disastrous bid for US Senate in 2012. For you younger politicos, if you are wondering why there is a coloring book mocking Mike, I recommend going to my main article, lol.
Over in the 11th, I look at how lucky Dan Webster is that Trump endorsed him and got Anthony Sabatini to drop his primary bid. In 2022, Webster had a very close call against Laura Loomer and I am convinced he was at serious risk of losing to Sabatini next week.
I look at the multi-way Democratic Primary for the 13th district. That primary sees several ell-funded Democrats fighting to take on Anna Paulina Luna, a far-right Republican congresswoman that drastically underperformed in her 2022 election. The 13th leans Republican, but Democrats clearly smell blood in the water.
Over in the 16th, I look at the for-sure-doomed campaign of Eddie Speir as he challenged Vern Buchanan. Speir has run a nasty race while self-funding his bid to the tune of $500,000. His twitter account is full of fun nonsense like this.
I look at the Republican Primary for District 23; which is seeing several Republicans line up to try and face Jared Moskowitz in a district that voted for DeSantis in 2022 (details in the main article). In that primary, one of the frontrunners is Robert Weinroth, a former Democratic Palm Beach County commissioner. Weinroth lost his seat in the 2022 red wave and switched parties shortly after.
Then over in the 23rd, I look at Jen Perelman’s Democratic primary bid against Debbie Wasserman Schultz. DWS is heavily favored to stomp Perelman, who has resorted to beginning AIPAC to attack her in order to get some sort of attention.
All told, many interesting stories exist in the primaries, even as most outcomes seem pretty clear. Many more details in the main article.
I’m working on my breakdowns of the primaries for State Senate and State House. Those will be coming soon!