Issue #164: Why Florida Democrats aren't holding a Presidential Primary (Part 2)
They followed 2012 precedent
Yesterday, I released Part 1 of my series on Florida’s history of Democratic Presidential Preference Primaries. As I delved into in that piece, Florida has been holding Presidential primary straw ballots or contested delegate races since 1904.
Today, I want to finish up that history and discuss more on why Florida Democrats are not holding a primary in 2024.
Lets delve right in.
Modern Era Primaries
Yesterday, I stopped at the 1980 primary, so lets pick it up four years later.
The 1984 Democratic Primaries were a major clash between former Vice President Walter Mondale, who represented the old New Deal wing of the party, and Gary Hart, who ran as a fresh-faced moderate. After Hart took the new Hampshire Primary, Mondale’s status as the clear frontrunner was in doubt. In addition, Ohio Senator and former Astronaut John Glenn, as well as civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, were running serious campaigns.
The Florida primary came two weeks after New Hampshire and despite Hart having little organization in the state, he beat the former VP in the primary.
John Glenn, who would soon drop out, was strongest in the veteran-heavy panhandle that also shared the Alabama border - a state Glenn pushed hard for and was voting the same day. Jesse Jackson, meanwhile, continued where Shirley Chisholm began (see Part 1) in galvanizing black voters. Jackson’s support with black voters allowed him to take a handful of panhandle counties that boasted sizeable black minority populations. It should come as no shock that Jackson’s best county was Gadsden, the lone majority-black county in the state.
Four years later, the Florida primary was held amid a massive Super Tuesday in March. Florida would be a big win for Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, who secured 41% of the vote, far outpaced the divided opposition. Dukakis won Florida thanks to major margins in the state’s urban core, including massive margins with Jewish and retiree voters. He also dominated around the Tampa Bay thanks to his Greek heritage and a sizeable Greek historic population in the region.
Al Gore, strongest with southern whites, did very well in the panhandle but struggled in any urban cities. Jesse Jackson improved from his 1984 run and won stronger black voter margins as well as picking up progressives sick of the establishment. Dick Gephardt, who bested Dukakis in Iowa, only won one county but had his share of the vote more evenly spread across the state, allowing him to squeak past Gore.
In 1992, Florida was again part of the Super Tuesday contests. These contests would be a critical part of Bill Clinton’s securing of the nomination, as his big wins on many of these contests would make him the dominant leader for in the primary fight. Clinton bested Paul Tsongas by 16 points, easily taking the state.
Jerry Brown would see a growth in support after Super Tuesday. In the Florida primary his support was more concentrated in a handful of counties. Clinton did well across the state, but especially dominated in the ancestrally-democratic Florida panhandle.
In 1996, Clinton faced no opposition in the Florida Primary. Nationwide, many states did not hold primary, as Clinton’s only notable opposition was conspiracy businessman Lyndon LaRouche. This was the first time an incumbent faced no primary in Florida in the era of binding primaries.
The 2000 and 2004 primary contests came after the nominations for Democrats were already locked up. The 2000 Primary saw Al Gore easily defeat Bill Bradley, who’d already left the contest. In 2004, the first primary I could vote in, John Kerry already had the nomination locked up and secured 77% of the vote.
These primaries were effectively uncontested, but hundreds of thousands showed up to vote regardless. The results are worth highlighting, though, because they reveal what I have discussed many times before, conservative protest votes. The weakest counties for both Gore and Kerry were the rural, white panhandle. These areas, especially at the time, were overwhelmingly democratic in registration and down-ballot, but voted GOP more and more at the top of the ticket. These are like the Dixiecrats we see in the south, or conservative coal Democrats in places like West Virginia and Kentucky. I wrote about protest votes in North Florida last year. Go to this for more details.
After 2004, Florida would be host to three contested Democratic Primaries.
Most Recent Primary Fights
The 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary in Florida was a controversial saga. Florida, wanting to avoid repeats of 2000 and 2004, aimed to jump ahead over several other states in the primary challenger. The primary was schedule for January 29th, before Super Tuesday.
As a result of the calendar jump, Florida was stripped of its delegates and candidates were barred from campaigning in the state. The candidates in question, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, abided by the order. However, direct campaigning aside, the results still saw a massive turnout of 1.7 million Democrats, more than any other primary at that time. Voters were fully aware of the candidates from the national coverage.
The results of the primary saw Hillary Clinton take 50% of the vote, with Barack Obama at 33% and John Edwards at 14%.
The results of the primary reflected voter coalitions seen in other states at the same time. Obama was strong with black voters, lefties, and students. Clinton was strongest with retirees, suburbanites, Hispanic voters, and working class whites. John Edwards, meanwhile, was strongest with the conservative Dixiecrats in the rural communities.
Edwards’ strong showing in the panhandle really matched well as a protest vote. The Edwards campaign was already on its last legs, having fallen short in Iowa and South Carolina and drowned out by the Clinton v Obama dynamic. Edwards, who stated he did not want the backing of anyone who wouldn’t vote for Obama or Clinton because of race or gender, was still getting many of these hyper-conservative rural Dixiecrats.
One the primary season wrapped up and Obama became the nominee, the delegate votes for Florida were counted at the convention as part of an effort toward party unity.
In 2012, Obama would not face anyone on the Florida primary ballot. The incumbent President avoided any serious primary threats, largely facing off against uncommitted slates or rando candidates. In places like West Virginia, protest votes from conservative coal democrats did make themselves known when Obama lost several coal counties to a man serving in jail. In Kentucky, many counties voted uncommitted in the coal fields. In Florida, however, the party, per the current laws, was tasked with submitting names to the state for the primary ballot. Only Obama was submitted, and hence won the nomination unopposed. This generated no controversy at the time.
Four years later, Florida would again hold a Democratic Primary for President. Held in mid March, a week after the initial Super Tuesday contests, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders battled it out. However, this primary did not draw top attention that day. By this point, Clinton was the easy frontrunner for the nomination, having opened up a solid delegate lead via Super Tuesday. Florida’s primary, held March 15th, came the same day as Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina, and Missouri would vote. The Sanders camp had more attention in OH, IL, and MO. The Florida demographics: namely retiree, suburban, black, and a Hispanic voters was not a good mix for Sanders. The Florida primary would, as most predicted, be a big win for Clinton.
Sanders’ best showings in the Florida primary were the college campuses, working class whites, and the Dixiecrats. Yes many hyper-conservative Democrats were backing Sanders, though largely because they despised Hillary Clinton. This played out in other states as well.
Meanwhile, Martin O’Malley, who dropped out long ago, garnered 2%, but was well over 10% in several rural communities.
O’Malley was a further extension of the conservative protest vote. Many of these Democrats, who again were still voting Democratic at the time due to local official races, actually complained to the local press that they were angry they could not vote for Donald Trump in the primary (not realizing Florida is a closed primary state).
Four years later, the Florida Primary came at a special nexus moment. Held on March 17th, Florida voted just before Bernie Sanders would drop out of the Presidential contest; and just as COVID was becoming a real problem in America. At the same point Florida voted, other states were postponing their primaries as lock down orders kicked into high gear. The primary was a sleepier affair than even 2016, as Biden was on a clear path to securing the nomination after his big South Carolina win and strong Super Tuesday showing. Sanders lost Michigan the week before, failing to recreate his 2016 upset win there. Heading into Florida, it was no doubt Biden would win, which he did with 62% of the vote.
The results here largely show similar coalitions from 2016, but with two key differences. Biden did much better with the rural Dixiecrats than Hillary. Though it also should be noted every cycle more of those voters change registration, so the protest votes are shrinking with each cycle. Sanders, however, did better with Hispanic voters than he had in 2016, something we saw in many other states as well.
After losing Michigan the next week, Sanders would drop out of the contest.
Why no 2024 Primary?
In the fall of last year, I began to wonder what the situation would be for a 2024 Florida Democratic Primary. I already assumed that since 1996 and 2012 had been unopposed, the same would apply this time. I personally did want a primary, but largely because I wanted to keep tracking the conservative protest votes. Also, if you want my honest take, I’d have been someone saying “eh screw it lets have a primary, Biden will get 95% and then no one can complain.” The problem was by October of last year, when the party was working to finalize the names to submit, the only candidates were Marianne Williamson, who generates bad headlines around vaccine issues, and Dean Phillips, who was jumping into the contest just as the Florida Democrats were finalizing their ballot to submit to the secretary of state.
To be clear, the Florida Democratic Party, in only submitting Biden’s name, did what it had done in the past. I personally have zero problem with it. However, the controversy and conspiracy could have been foreseen. I am not 100% sure if the party could have asked for “uncommitted” to be listed or not. Phillips, who entered late, I think did miss the deadline (read here to judge for yourself).
As I said, if I had been on the executive committee (and this is a committee decision, not the party chair) I’d have said “fine put Williamson on and/or lets see if we can do an uncommitted option” just because my instinct is to consider what won’t piss folks off. Better to hold a primary Biden will get 95% in than give anyone a reason to think Biden is being “protected.” I definitely do NOT buy that claim.
I think the primaries that have been held so far show Biden would have easily won a Florida primary, likely with over 90% of the vote. The protests to Biden are there, especially around the Gaza war, but much of that has been concentrated in specific communities. Dearborn, home to a large Arab population, was the site of a major “uncommitted” push.
We saw similar uncommitted drives in parts of Minneapolis, Seattle, and different college campuses. However, most primaries show Biden securing well over 90% of the vote, with pockets of opposition being best seen at the precinct level.
If a Florida primary was held, lets say with uncommitted, then the college campuses would be a key area to look at for signs of protest votes. However, as I have discussed, we’d likely have seen far greater anti-Biden votes coming from rural and conservative areas. We saw this in Oklahoma a few weeks back, and will likely see it again in Kentucky and West Virginia. I plan to do more diving into protest votes, from the left AND right, as more states vote.
I would have voted to have a Florida primary, if for no other reason than to ensure no controversy emerged. That said, its crying over spilled milk. I don’t think the lack of a primary will have any tangible impact moving forward. A Florida primary likely would have gone something like Nevada, where “none of the above” was an option and everyone could vote by mail. The easiest contest to register displeasure and Biden still got 90%.
Should Democrats have held a 2024 primary? My answer is “sure.” Yes the party followed precedent and its very clear Biden has no threat at getting the nomination. Say whatever you will about the process here, but don’t claim the lack of a primary was to “help” Biden. I don’t think the President would have been upset getting to say “I got 90% in the Florida primary.”
I just wish I could have seen how the Dixiecrat panhandle would vote.